Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 6-15-17

[Hrubes20]

Amaya already 1-1 in CS. Assad with 2 Ks to starte the game. Good start.

 

Amaya is now 2/2 throwing out base runners. And he's 1-2 at the dish.

 

3-3 now. This is really fun.

[davell]

Ademan HR

[Aaron_Kennelly]

The new toys are fun.

[Thrilho]

Yeah I haven't thought of a top 10 in a while but i think these two would be on it for me. Alberto's not making Eugene and having a horrible showing so far in AZ takes some shine off him. Clifton walking a lot of guys and not striking many out, still dig him but tempering expectations. Some big toolsy position players have come through lately and done well. and these two have lit it up with peripherals, defensive and production in AZ and at DSL.

 

So I'd put Burks + these guys into the top 10 but I'd have to figure out who else leaves. Either way there's a lot of talent at Eugene. Martarano should fun to watch and Assad. Was thinking Guttierez would make it but it'll be fun to watch how he and Sierra do trying to make the team.

 

Amaya and Ademan though. Somewhere in the top 8ish at least I'd think

I'm with on Amaya. He's in my top 10. The longer Burks hits like he has, the better his argument for being in the top 10. I'm still wait-and-see on Ademan. He's not far off from my top 10, though. Definitely top 15. His play at Eugene will have a lot to say about where he winds up for me.

 

Assuming Happ stays up, he'll fall off the list, but he's got 41 more at bats to go. I agree with your concern about Clifton, but perhaps I'm a bit more patient with him because he just turned 22 a month ago and is more than holding his own in AA. I want to see if/how he progresses in the 2nd half. Hatch has moved up my board big time given his 5 consecutive, high quality starts. Here's a stab at my current top 10:

 

1. Jimenez

2. Happ

3. Cease

4. Candelario

5. Clifton

6. Hatch

7. Alzolay

8. Caratini

9. Amaya

10. De La Cruz

 

It's very fluid, though. I'd love to hear yours!

 

Thanks for asking. I skipped over the rest of the thread to avoid bias, but may have missed good info. Either way, my rankings are based on who I’d want to trade least today. I like big upside, but sometimes swing and miss hard like when I included DH/1B Ian Rice in my top 10 last year. Probably some of this will look stupid pretty quick.

 

Eloy

Amaya

Candelario

Zagunis

Cease

Hatch

Alzolay

Caratini

Ademan

Burks

 

Mekkes

Clifton

Oscar DLC

Short

Paredes

 

So first, on Ademan. $2M signing bonus, so the FO liked him. Was BA’s 12th ranked guy that IFA period. Everything you read says he looks great defensively. He had a 13.7% walk rate in the DSL and an 11.3% K rate, while slashing .254/.366/.316. Obviously, no power there but what separates him for me from someone like Penalver’s DSL (.272/.364/.341) is that Penalver also had a few more Ks (14%) and didn’t have the hype behind him. Madison’s comments below show some confidence for future power. If that doesn’t develop he’s probably a lot lower. But even then, a lot will depend on how good he is defensively. You can make high contact/high walk/low power profile work as a decent SS. Separator from Paredes for me is the body and the projections all seem to indicate he won’t outgrow the spot.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/cubs-young-shortstop-shows-hes-ahead-schedule/#adLf5MJXvC9Lm8Cu.97

Compared to top prospects we’ve had in the past like Gleyber (Torres), he’s got nothing to envy Glebyer on defensively.

…he’s got great instincts. I’m not going to go as high as Javy Baez instincts, because (Ademan’s) 18 and that’s as high as you get, but no doubt at times he shows flashes of a kid who will have very good instincts…

He’s legit,” Cubs farm director Jaron Madison said. “It’s a very mature approach on both sides of the ball. He’ll show you that he can be an everyday shortstop. Then he’ll go to the plate and really impact the ball and show you he can really swing the bat. He’s definitely getting stronger. Filling out.

 

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2017/01/cubs-prospect-series-the-shortstops/

 

Amaya gets a high ranking here. I’ve been hearing all the nice words you have and he tore the cover off the ball in AZ. Just based on who I’d want to trade today, I’m going to put him #2. Candyman is at .722 OPS since 5/1 and his K rate is a good bit higher than in past years. Seems like he’ll be able to stick at third though and he’s been pretty streaky. So I’ll keep him up top because I think he’ll come back around.

 

Zagunis I love because he’s hitting for power and has consistently off the charts walk rates. If he’s Youk lite in left that could be a valuable player. A ton hinges on the power, but he hit at a pretty crazy clip for a while there, and it’s great that he’s putting the ball in the air.

 

Hatch vs Alzolay is an interesting one. A lot of it depends on if you prefer lower walks or HR suppression. Where Alzolay has allowed 7 HRs in 70 IP so far this year, Hatch has allowed none in 63.1 and going back to college he’s allowed 3 in his last 239.1 IP. That speaks to some stuff that’s tough to square up. Hatch also has a GB rate of 51% this year. Alzolay is only at ~38% GB rate, was 43% last year, 37% the year before that. That’s not a good pairing with a propensity for giving up HRs. Maybe they stress the GB rate with him though and the HR drops in kind.

 

Problem for Hatch is he’s walked 4.1 per nine at MB and 3.9 in his last season at OK St. Alzolay is at 2.31 this year, was 2.09 at SB, and 2.55 at Eugene. Bright side on Hatch is that he’s had 2 or less walks in each of his last 5 outings, which has coincided with his turn around. Also, Hatch had a sprained UCL that didn’t get surgery before the 2016 season. So I guess they retooled his delivery during 2016 to keep him healthy, then according to the article below, they’ve changed it a lot this year. So it could be a guy struggling with a new delivery.

 

Velocity reports look good on both. Seems like the consensus from multiple reports is Alzolay sits at 95, and the BA article below says Hatch “was comfortably between 93-95 for the duration…fastball featured vicious two-seem life….in the first two innings Hatch got nine swings and misses on his fastball alone”

 

On Hatch and Alzolay: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/adbert-alzolay-doesnt-want-hitters-to-think-chicago-cubs/#5yyKzZVicaltBrJK.97

Lots of good stuff, some on his delivery changes: http://www.cubsinsider.com/2017/05/30/prospect-update-thomas-hatchs-13-strikeout-performance-signals-shift/

 

Cease probably has less of a shot at starting than these guys because these two have already thrown 120+ innings in a season, while Cease is in his age 21 season with a max of 44.2 innings. But pitchers are lottery tickets and Cease’s stuff makes him a good one. 14.5 Ks per inning looks pretty good and he’s got time to clean up the walks. He was trending better in his short starts before the injury. Only 3 walks in his last 4 starts (13.1 IP).

 

Caratini is one who could be way higher if I knew he could catch. He’s played 21 of 55 games at 1B so far this year. If he’s just an occasional starter at catcher then he’s got about the same requirements as someone like Vogelbach does as a hitter. He’s been a great hitter so far this year, but if he can’t catch he’s going to need to keep it up and hit for a little more power.

 

Burks is another guy with this huge walk rate. Over 12% the last two years and over 10% for every stop since A-. Got his K rate back down to 17% this year. ISO ~.150 and a frame that seems like it could add a little more muscle. Has a super high BABIP, so the .314/.410/.466 could drop a bit but right now the .403 wOBA is looking pretty good. A lot of this ranking rests on him either being able to play center (at least sometimes) or play GG type defense in left. Or add power.

 

I really wanted to put Mekkes in. He probably should be in because he seems like such a lock to be very good, but I wanted my high upside position players in. Someone on here will probably slip a bit and let him in though.

 

I think Clifton does pitch in the majors, but I’m not a fan of the way his peripherals are trending. After ticking up to 9.76 K/9 last year, he’s down to 7.56. And his BB/9 is back to 3.78, which is in line with his 2014/2015 numbers. FIPs of 3.80+ in 3 of his last 4 years. Ground ball rate around 35% the last 3 years. Low HRs, but he’s got to start striking guys out and stop walking them.

 

Oscar DLC not sure but wanted him to be in the team picture. He could be higher or lower.

 

Zack Short is yet another guy with a huge walk rate, at 18%. Only 16% K rate and .184 ISO. 6 HRs to go with .248/.402/.432. Maybe he doesn’t really have power, but he did hit 9 HRs in 200 ABs his sophomore season for a .230 ISO. Could see him as a nice Fontenot type utility guy if he can’t stick at short.

 

Paredes looks pretty good with an 8.4% BB rate and 13% K rate. And at 18 I know I shouldn’t expect that much more out of the bat. And I know he can get the barrel on the bat. But he’s got a body that’s not usually made for short and I haven’t seen a lot of people pounding the table for his defensive ability. So I’m going to temper enthusiasm til he really starts hitting.

Edited June 16, 2017 by Thrilho

[Thrilho]

Oh, and I avoided looking at the Eugene box score as well. Good to see the hot start out of the young guys!

[Thrilho]

Didn't ask, but here's mine lol.....Happ is leaving soon, so he's not on mine. Neither is Oscar, until we hear what his injury is.

 

1. Jimenez

2. Cease

3. Caratini

4. Alzolay

5. Hatch

6. Candelario

7. Amaya

8. Zagunis

9. Burks

10. Clifton

 

Guys with a shot to end up in top 10 by end of season(no draftees) Ademan, Steele, Rucker, Mekkes, Paredes, Robinson, Moreno, Hudson, Assad, Albertos

 

Mine looks a lot like this, although Candelario is on there begrudgingly. I see him only as a trading piece, for whatever value he has. I don't have much faith in him to ever be very productive in the majors. I've never been too high on him. But he's produced at the higher levels in the minors and is ready for a shot with some team, so he's above most of these guys by default.

 

I could flip flop Candelario and Burks and be fine with it. Its hard to put together a top 10 for us currently. Its Eloy, Cease, then personal preference basically.....3-10 is pretty close for me, as of now. But, I suspect the rest of the season will help solidify things.

Yeah, I think I could say the same thing and they're 7 spots away from each other on my list. I put Candelario up top mostly because I didn't feel like comparing him against all those pitchers. I used to be much higher but I'm very wait and see right now. Like you said, my 3-10 (or even 15) is fairly tight. I like the system though. All the top position players have pretty big walk rates and most don't have big strikeout flags. Yet, at least.

 

The pitchers, as always, I really don't know what I'm doing. I probably ought to have Mekkes higher but I dunno who to drop.

[Bruno7481]

I knew Zagunis had on base skills, but had no idea his career OBP was over .400.

 

On a related note he is my 9 yr old son's favorite prospect. 2 years ago in Myrtle Beach we were given a tour of the clubhouse and my son just had to use the Pelicans bathrooms and he did his business at the urinal next to Mark. As a 7 year old, my son still practiced the drop your pants to your ankles technique. This got a laugh, and apparently formed quite the bond with my son.

[davell]

I like Mekkes a lot. A ton actually. But come on, he's getting over hyped here. There's a guy 6 months older, drafted one round later, that has a higher K/9, lower BB/9, lower FIP, lower xFIP, throws harder, was promoted to MB earlier, and has actually been put IN the rotation, due to how good he's been.

 

Realistically, Rucker is every bit as good of a prospect, if not better, than Mekkes is.

[weis21]

Realistically, Rucker is every bit as good of a prospect, if not better, than Mekkes is.

 

Well I hope to see both (Rucker is going tonight but I'll probably see Mekkes tomorrow since he pitched two innings last night) - i'll try to post something of note this weekend (probably from scouts).

 

Also, how do you pronounce Mekkes? Meaks? Mecks?

[davell]

Realistically, Rucker is every bit as good of a prospect, if not better, than Mekkes is.

 

Well I hope to see both (Rucker is going tonight but I'll probably see Mekkes tomorrow since he pitched two innings last night) - i'll try to post something of note this weekend (probably from scouts).

 

Also, how do you pronounce Mekkes? Meaks? Mecks?

 

I say Mecks, but no idea if its correct or not.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I like Mekkes a lot. A ton actually. But come on, he's getting over hyped here. There's a guy 6 months older, drafted one round later, that has a higher K/9, lower BB/9, lower FIP, lower xFIP, throws harder, was promoted to MB earlier, and has actually been put IN the rotation, due to how good he's been.

 

Realistically, Rucker is every bit as good of a prospect, if not better, than Mekkes is.

 

Mekkes has been harder to hit, but I agree with the larger point. My enthusiasm for Mekkes is half-facetious in liking him in an underdog sense, he doesn't throw hard and in reality has a best case scenario of something like Tyler Clippard. That's a really good career so it's well worth hoping for, but deception can only make up for so much.

[Thrilho]

I like Mekkes a lot. A ton actually. But come on, he's getting over hyped here. There's a guy 6 months older, drafted one round later, that has a higher K/9, lower BB/9, lower FIP, lower xFIP, throws harder, was promoted to MB earlier, and has actually been put IN the rotation, due to how good he's been.

 

Realistically, Rucker is every bit as good of a prospect, if not better, than Mekkes is.

I'm not the foremost expert on Mekkes so probably not the best guy to be making the defense, but for me the fact that he's 6'7 with a weird delivery helped. He also had 15.2 K/9 his last year of college and was KATOH's top overall draft prospect according to the article below.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/more-words-than-youd-expect-on-the-cubs-10th-round-pick/

 

He noted that Mekkes is 6-foot-7 and “has some Carter Capps-esque elements to his delivery where he’s really launching hard off the mound and gets really tremendous extension out in front.” As a result, Mekkes’ effective velocity — how fast his pitches appear to be traveling — is likely a couple notches higher than his low-90s radar-gun readings.

 

The article does stress that BA grades the slider as "fringe-average to average" and changeup that "flashes average...but more often is a below-average offering." But he's been getting great results and has the TT stamp of approval (TT stamp of willingness to shame people over him)? So that's gotta count for something.

 

Contrast that profile with Rucker, who had less than a K per inning each year in college. I'd seen Rucker as having a low 90s FB, with the ability reach mid-90s on occasion, but honestly I did a lot of catching up on some of these guys yesterday and Rucker fell into my blind spot. Would have to look closer at him.

 

But 6'7 herky jerk submariner guy K'ing 14 guys per 9 was intriguing enough to put Mekkes near my top 10. The walks are bigly now and were in college (6.3 per 9!) but I got burned with CJ dropping an elite K reliever due to walks. So once bit twice shy, I'm giving Mekkes some rope on the walks.

[Thrilho]

TT stamp of approval

half-facetious...in an underdog sense

Welp I read that one wrong. Shun the non-believer!

[davell]

I really like them both. They'd each fall between 11-20 currently for me. I hope they both spend August in Tennessee.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I can't fathom putting a full-time reliever in A ball on a top 10 or 15 list in an average system. I'm not talking a guy who is starting now but will likely be a reliever in the big leagues (Edwards, probably Cease). I'm talking about a guy who was already shunted to the bullpen in the lower minors.

 

(I can't take shots at your lists and not post mine. Will do so this morning.)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I can't fathom putting a full-time reliever in A ball on a top 10 or 15 list in an average system. I'm not talking a guy who is starting now but will likely be a reliever in the big leagues (Edwards, probably Cease). I'm talking about a guy who was already shunted to the bullpen in the lower minors.

 

(I can't take shots at your lists and not post mine. Will do so this morning.)

 

I think it depends on the reliever. Drew Storen was a Top 100 prospect overall with only 12 innings above A-ball, for example. I also don't think the system is all that good right now, although I haven't looked at it comprehensively.

[Thrilho]

I can't fathom putting a full-time reliever in A ball on a top 10 or 15 list in an average system. I'm not talking a guy who is starting now but will likely be a reliever in the big leagues (Edwards, probably Cease). I'm talking about a guy who was already shunted to the bullpen in the lower minors.

 

(I can't take shots at your lists and not post mine. Will do so this morning.)

C'mon it worked pretty well for me with Armondo Rivero

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I can't fathom putting a full-time reliever in A ball on a top 10 or 15 list in an average system. I'm not talking a guy who is starting now but will likely be a reliever in the big leagues (Edwards, probably Cease). I'm talking about a guy who was already shunted to the bullpen in the lower minors.

 

(I can't take shots at your lists and not post mine. Will do so this morning.)

 

I think it depends on the reliever. Drew Storen was a Top 100 prospect overall with only 12 innings above A-ball, for example. I also don't think the system is all that good right now, although I haven't looked at it comprehensively.

 

Fair. I'd probably make an exception to a top ten overall pick.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Top 11 because Happ will graduate in ten days:

 

1. Eloy Jimenez

2. Ian Happ

3. Dylan Cease

4. Thomas Hatch

5. Charcer Burks

6. Victor Caratini

7. Trevor Clifton

8. Jeimer Candelario

9. Mark Zagunis

10. Adbert Alzolay

11. Miguel Amaya

 

It's really tough to figure out where to rank Oscar de la Cruz without knowing the extent and type of injury. That said, given his age and level, a loss of innings this season is probably going to really slam his chances of being a big league starting pitcher.

[cubsclapp]

Actually...

 

Jimenez

 

 

Mekkes

Lange

Caratini

Mills

Hatch

Little

Burks

Paredes

Amaya/Albertos/Zagunis

 

I forgot the underrated Alec Mills, who is not out for anything arm related IIRC. I reeeeeeaaaaaalllllly look forward to this summer for the TDL and more games to clear things up a little bit.

 

--

 

Paredes 1/3 with a double in game one, struck out in his first appearance for game 2.

 

Saying the second-best prospect is a 22-year-old (23 in November) relief pitcher throwing low 90s in A-ball seems a little aggressive.

 

And Alec Mills turns 26 in November and already had a brief MLB stint. Are we really considering him a prospect? I basically view him closer to an Eddie Butler than a prospect. He likely had a little more perceived value over the winter than he does now, and was acquired for what was probably like the Cubs' 15th-best prospect.