Projecting the 2017 Cubs

[David]

Coming soon...

 

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[Omar]

I project the 2017 cubs will be pretty good

[Transmogrified Tiger]

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Just from eyeballing the two lists, it looks like the depth chart will come in the neighborhood of 45 WAR. Last year's depth chart had 50 fWAR and didn't include Fowler displacing Soler, so they've got some work to do to match the expectation. Last year the Dodgers at 46 were the only NL depth chart above 41 WAR.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

just kidding I made a stupid math mistake, they might be north of 50 WAR already for 2017

[UMFan83]

We've come a long way from TTs Google Docs spreadsheets yelling at us for putting LaHair at 1B

[Transmogrified Tiger]

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[bukie]

First thought is slight disappointment that none of the pen projects really good, but a 3 war minimum team in every position is hilarious.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

 

For the record, all of the replies on that tweet from Cubs fans are like, "Yeah, I'd take that."

 

Also:

"What they don’t have is a World Championship in the last century. Kyle Schwarber can’t help them with that this year."

-Dave Cameron

[davell]

If Joe Morgan and him were in an argument, I'd be hoping Morgan would punch him right in the horsefeathers.

[davell]

Replacement wins is 48, right? So we're sitting at a 99 win team BEFORE we even make a move? LMFAO. Seriously, that's absurd.

 

And while the offense doesn't appear to have any real feasible upgrades, the pitching does. Adding an Archer(if possible to do without Schwarber or Javy) adds 3 wins. I figure we WILL find a way to add at least 2 wins to the pen. Slim shot at 3. So, worst case is we head into 2017 projected at 101 wins. Best case looks to be 105. Insane.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Replacement wins is 48, right? So we're sitting at a 99 win team BEFORE we even make a move? LMFAO. Seriously, that's absurd.

 

And while the offense doesn't appear to have any real feasible upgrades, the pitching does. Adding an Archer(if possible to do without Schwarber or Javy) adds 3 wins. I figure we WILL find a way to add at least 2 wins to the pen. Slim shot at 3. So, worst case is we head into 2017 projected at 101 wins. Best case looks to be 105. Insane.

 

I think it's more like 43-45? IIRC we projected for something like 93 from ZiPS last year, if I have time later I'll try to track it down.

 

Doesn't change the point though, *projecting* for 90 wins is pretty crazy, projecting for several wins past that is definitely absurd.

[davell]

Replacement wins is 48, right? So we're sitting at a 99 win team BEFORE we even make a move? LMFAO. Seriously, that's absurd.

 

And while the offense doesn't appear to have any real feasible upgrades, the pitching does. Adding an Archer(if possible to do without Schwarber or Javy) adds 3 wins. I figure we WILL find a way to add at least 2 wins to the pen. Slim shot at 3. So, worst case is we head into 2017 projected at 101 wins. Best case looks to be 105. Insane.

 

I think it's more like 43-45? IIRC we projected for something like 93 from ZiPS last year, if I have time later I'll try to track it down.

 

Doesn't change the point though, *projecting* for 90 wins is pretty crazy, projecting for several wins past that is definitely absurd.

 

You may be right. I think Kyle is the guy who knew this stuff last off season. But yeah, either way, its awesome.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I don't give a crap how hyperbolic and homerish this is but Kris Bryant is going to demolish those offensive numbers. This is the year he becomes a 300/40 guy. Take it to the bank.

[David]

Dodgers have moved ahead of us in the FG projections.

 

IIRC we were at 95 last I checked. What I'm not sure about is if that was before Fowler left (and included him).

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Here's the link you want: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

Where do I go to bet on the spread in the Dodger and Cub offenses being greater than 3 wins?

[David]

Here's the link you want: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

Where do I go to bet on the spread in the Dodger and Cub offenses being greater than 3 wins?

 

yeah whoops...idk what happened there. thanks.

[David]

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The sportsbook in Reno that was way low on the Cubs over/under last year (89 - I almost wanted to fly to Reno because I'm pretty sure no other casino was this low) has them at 95.5 this year.

[Banedon]

The Effectively Wild podcast is doing a preview of the 2017 Cubs (and Brewers) on today's episode.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/category/effectively-wild/

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Effectively Wild podcast is doing a preview of the 2017 Cubs (and Brewers) on today's episode.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/category/effectively-wild/

 

For those who aren't big podcast people like me, this was a very good listen. Not only is it very informative to hear Sharma, Sullivan, and Lindbergh talk about the 2017 Cubs, but it was really entertaining to hear Sullivan ask Sharma to explain the 8 win PECOTA gap between the Dodgers and Cubs, and then incredulously exclaim "8 wins" over and over as Sharma and Lindbergh tried to give serious answers.

[David]

https://www.instagram.com/p/BQyyrAtjdi9/

[David]

https://www.instagram.com/p/BQyyrAtjdi9/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/heres-where-the-projections-disagree/

 

Cubs back on top http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

[David]

With the Cubs now projecting at 95 wins again, in what isn't really an optimal playing time calculation (not to mention all of the free wins in our division), I think I might make a small bet on the over when I'm in Vegas next week.

 

Westgate is at 95.5 so I'm guessing they'll all be around there.

 

With Schwarber back and even a semi-competent Heyward (HEY DID YOU SEE HE WENT DEEP IN LIVE BP THE OTHER DAY?), this team would be the wrecking crew it was while Fowler was channeling Barry Bonds before his injury.

[David]

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[CubinNY]

I just want to see one 20 run, 9 inning game this year.

[davell]

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If I look at things, assuming health.....The young guys conceivably are all still improving.

 

KB? Not sure he can get better, but he's still at an age where its possible.

 

Schwarber for a full season is a vast improvement over what we were running out in LF.

 

Contreras is better than Miggy/Ross. Hell, Miggy ought to be better than last year.

 

Russell and Javy should both improve. Maybe even break out.

 

Heyward can't be worse and likely rebounds somewhat.

 

Rizzo should stay the same.

 

Zobrist may take a step back, but his skill set should sustain.

 

Almora and Jay aren't going to replicate Dex, but that's probably the only spot that's really a downgrade.

 

So, to me, the offense IS going to be better than last year. Maybe even substantially.

 

For that matter, I think the pen is improved too.

 

The rotation surely takes a step back, but I kind of suspect Jake will dominate in his contract year too. So, even if Lackey, Hendricks, and Lester regress a bit, I doubt it makes much of a difference. Especially since I suspect Monty/Anderson to perform as well or better than Hammel did.

 

The division isn't good. We're better than last year.

 

I think its definitely possible we have a better record than last year, as hard as it may appear to do.