Cecil to Cards

[Guancous]

I'm more opposed to the 5 years than the $80 million.

 

For reference, here is a list of the top closers from 2012:http://razzball.com/top-20-closers-for-2012-fantasy-baseball/

 

Kimbrel was #1, Jansen was #14 and Carlos Marmol was #10. A lot of others are out of the game.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm more opposed to the 5 years than the $80 million.

 

For reference, here is a list of the top closers from 2012:http://razzball.com/top-20-closers-for-2012-fantasy-baseball/

 

Kimbrel was #1, Jansen was #14 and Carlos Marmol was #10. A lot of others are out of the game.

 

What you really want to look at is the culmination of several years ending in 2012, to make sure we aren't seeing some fly by night results. Here's 2010-2012 leaders: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2012&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

We'll want to pay special attention to the ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- columns, because those are park and league adjusted so we can account for the fact that the offensive environment has changed a fair bit.

 

What you see there is Kimbrel lapping the field, with Mariano a solid 2nd and everyone else in the 50s and low 60s(including Jansen and Chapman themselves!) for all 3 metrics. It's also worth noting that most of the names you see on that list have held up pretty well once you account for the inevitable injury risk, and filter out guys near the end of their careers in 2012 like Putz and Rivera.

 

Now let's look at 2014-2016: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

You can see off the bat that Chapman and Miller are in Kimbrelian territory with Jansen right behind them(along with Betances). In 2016 alone both rise to that threshold, along with Miller, and Britton's outlier BABIP suppression.

 

The point being made here is that Chapman and Jansen are rare birds, they aren't just 'good closers' who happened to reach free agency, for the last 5 years they(along with Kimbrel) have consistently been the best relievers in the game. I don't expect them to be at that threshold at the end of a 5 year deal, but I also don't expect Dexter Fowler to be a 3-4 win CF at the end of a 4 year deal and I'm still interested in signing him. Chapman and Jansen's dominance means that they can decline and still be effective relievers, and their method of dominance(Chapman throwing several mph faster than any man alive, Jansen throwing cutters faster than anyone with great control) portends well for them aging gracefully too.

[Post Count Padder]

If we sign a non closing lefty, who's the preference?

 

Boone Logan, Jerry Blevins, Mike Dunn, JP Howell, or Marc Rzepcynski?

For some reason I was irrationally annoyed we traded Blevins for the ghost of Jason Kendall. I'd be a fan on a one year deal. Was good this past year and has a 3.21 FIP over the past four years.

[Little Slide Rooter]

If we sign a non closing lefty, who's the preference?

 

Boone Logan, Jerry Blevins, Mike Dunn, JP Howell, or Marc Rzepcynski?

 

I'm thinking Leathersitch and Zaz will be given the chance to win or lose that job, with Rosscup as a dark horse. If none of them work out, we can just scrape something up between late spring training and early summer.

[toonsterwu]

If we sign a non closing lefty, who's the preference?

 

Boone Logan, Jerry Blevins, Mike Dunn, JP Howell, or Marc Rzepcynski?

For some reason I was irrationally annoyed we traded Blevins for the ghost of Jason Kendall. I'd be a fan on a one year deal. Was good this past year and has a 3.21 FIP over the past four years.

 

If the goal is to bring in a situational arm, and I'm not exactly certain on that, then I'd be all for Blevins.

 

Can't say I'm all that bummed about Cecil. As dominant as he has been since going to the pen, moments of inconsistency are bothersome, but more importantly, I'm not sure you couldn't "find" that. Add in the commitment in years that it was going to take (and did take), and I'm sort of glad.

 

I have to agree in general with TT's worries on the pen - the way Rondon struggled in the 2nd half, and Maddon essentially losing all confidence in him, leaves us in a far more precarious situation. That said, I'm going to be stunned if we shell out the years and money for Chapman. I just don't see it happening. Maybe I'm wrong - not against it by any means, depending on how things shake out.

 

I wouldn't be against exploring the off-season trade market for pen arms depending on how the market shakes out on the FA's. There's a couple teams with deep pens but question marks elsewhere that make me wonder if they might shop some arms. It could be costly in terms of young talent, but measured against where we are, where the system is ... it might make more sense. Really comes down to how the market shakes out first, though.