5/15 Bucs (Cole) @ Cubs (Lester), 1:20, CSN

[David]

I'm starting to really like this whole Baez at third and Bryant in left thing.

 

There's obviously a big defensive upgrade in going that way (mainly because of how bad an outfielder Soler is), but going by anything but their surface stats, Soler has looked a lot better offensively than Baez. Unfortunately, a 150 point gap in BABIP can disguise a lot of things.

[UMFan83]

https://i.imgur.com/DFjLGnd.gifv

[Cubswin11]

I'm starting to really like this whole Baez at third and Bryant in left thing.

Yep. This is the optimal lineup, at least until Soler stops being terrible.

If you flipped Javy's and Jorge's BABIP's we'd be talking about Jorge being a damn near all-star and guessing what Japanese team Javy will be playing on in a few years.

[David]

I'll excuse the use of "points" as hopefully dad simplifying it because the kid doesn't know to say "runs" yet

[OleMissCub]

I'll excuse the use of "points" as hopefully dad simplifying it because the kid doesn't know to say "runs" yet

 

Absolutely. I've had to debase myself and use the term "points" when describing the game to my kid as well.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

is it really hard to say "in baseball they're called runs, not points?"

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Joe Maddon said points the other day. I was surprised.

[David]

Joe Maddon said points the other day. I was surprised.

 

Maddon does that a lot. He's doing it because he likes to say stuff quirky ways, not because he doesn't know they're referred to as "runs."

[UMFan83]

I'll excuse the use of "points" as hopefully dad simplifying it because the kid doesn't know to say "runs" yet

 

Absolutely. I've had to debase myself and use the term "points" when describing the game to my kid as well.

 

I use runs to describe scoring in football and basketball

[SRQCub]

is it really hard to say "in baseball they're called runs, not points?"

 

Yes, it is. But he little guy is perfectly able to comprehend that this one special type of HR is called a "grand slam."

[davell]

I'm starting to really like this whole Baez at third and Bryant in left thing.

 

There's obviously a big defensive upgrade in going that way (mainly because of how bad an outfielder Soler is), but going by anything but their surface stats, Soler has looked a lot better offensively than Baez. Unfortunately, a 150 point gap in BABIP can disguise a lot of things.

 

Is that true though? I get that Soler's babip sucks currently. But I'm not thinking Javy's is all that unsustainable either. His contact rate is higher than Soler's amazingly enough and his LD% is higher too. I'm really not sure Soler is even a better offensive player, obviously not even taking defense into account.

[NOLA]

I'm starting to really like this whole Baez at third and Bryant in left thing.

Yep. This is the optimal lineup, at least until Soler stops being terrible.

If you flipped Javy's and Jorge's BABIP's we'd be talking about Jorge being a damn near all-star and guessing what Japanese team Javy will be playing on in a few years.

Ok, but that's ignoring Javy striking out less and his stellar defense. Jorge looked like a sniper shot him in the field yesterday. I love the guy, but today, this is the best lineup the Cubs could have IMO.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

To be fair, Javy has already been basically a full win better than Jorge when looking at just their defense and base running. Just using BABIP to hand wave at Jorge's problems by comparing him to Javy isn't fair.

 

Also, Javy's not really getting too much BABIP luck. He's got good speed and can beat out infield hits. He's shown he can bunt for hits. He's not hitting infield fly balls. He's hitting a ton of line drives. He's just been hitting well. And a .356 BABIP doesn't really rate on the "incredibly unsustainable" spectrum. There are things that look bad in his periphs, though, sure. Mainly, he swings at too many pitches, especially ones out of the zone. But, he is making more contact, and he's making more contact than Jorge.

 

Jorge's BABIP is low for a reason, too. He's hitting a ton of fly balls, but they aren't going anywhere. His HR and fly ball distance is really low. He and Heyward were both among the lowest in the league in this category the last time I looked.

 

That said, I'm not giving up on Jorge. And, in fact, I am taking these changes with Jorge as a positive. He sucked last year, anyway, so something had to change. And his defense hasn't improved, so something about his offense needs to change. And he is trying to change. He's getting the ball in the air more. His launch angle is much more conducive to hitting for power -- specifically, hitting home runs. He wasn't going to be good enough offensively by hitting balls 110 mph into the ground. He needed to get more loft out of his swing. He is now. Maybe it's just a phase while he tries to get comfortable with this new approach to his swing. The Ding Dong Johnsons will come.

 

But the BABIP difference has happened for a reason: Jorge has hit like horsefeathers and Javy has hit the ball well. Take from that what you will. Maybe it has been fluky. Obviously, I don't think Jorge's BABIP will stay that low when he is hitting the ball on average 93 mph, or whatever it is at. But, the overarching issue with Jorge is this: He can't afford bad BABIP luck and remain an effective baseball player, because he sucks at everything else. Javy might be able to.

[David]

I'm starting to really like this whole Baez at third and Bryant in left thing.

 

There's obviously a big defensive upgrade in going that way (mainly because of how bad an outfielder Soler is), but going by anything but their surface stats, Soler has looked a lot better offensively than Baez. Unfortunately, a 150 point gap in BABIP can disguise a lot of things.

 

Is that true though? I get that Soler's babip sucks currently. But I'm not thinking Javy's is all that unsustainable either. His contact rate is higher than Soler's amazingly enough and his LD% is higher too. I'm really not sure Soler is even a better offensive player, obviously not even taking defense into account.

 

you're alive?!

[davell]

 

There's obviously a big defensive upgrade in going that way (mainly because of how bad an outfielder Soler is), but going by anything but their surface stats, Soler has looked a lot better offensively than Baez. Unfortunately, a 150 point gap in BABIP can disguise a lot of things.

 

Is that true though? I get that Soler's babip sucks currently. But I'm not thinking Javy's is all that unsustainable either. His contact rate is higher than Soler's amazingly enough and his LD% is higher too. I'm really not sure Soler is even a better offensive player, obviously not even taking defense into account.

 

you're alive?!

 

Yeah, just superstitious. Wasn't posting much when the season got started so was waiting for a cold streak to start back. Now that its apparent one of those isn't ever happening, horsefeathers it, I'll just post again.

[David]

 

Is that true though? I get that Soler's babip sucks currently. But I'm not thinking Javy's is all that unsustainable either. His contact rate is higher than Soler's amazingly enough and his LD% is higher too. I'm really not sure Soler is even a better offensive player, obviously not even taking defense into account.

 

you're alive?!

 

Yeah, just superstitious. Wasn't posting much when the season got started so was waiting for a cold streak to start back. Now that its apparent one of those isn't ever happening, [expletive] it, I'll just post again.

 

well that's not the explanation i was expecting :lol:

[Ding Dong Johnson]

 

Is that true though? I get that Soler's babip sucks currently. But I'm not thinking Javy's is all that unsustainable either. His contact rate is higher than Soler's amazingly enough and his LD% is higher too. I'm really not sure Soler is even a better offensive player, obviously not even taking defense into account.

 

you're alive?!

 

Yeah, just superstitious. Wasn't posting much when the season got started so was waiting for a cold streak to start back. Now that its apparent one of those isn't ever happening, [expletive] it, I'll just post again.

you know if they start losing we're going to beat the horsefeathers out of you, right?

[itisallpartoftheplan]

 

Is that true though? I get that Soler's babip sucks currently. But I'm not thinking Javy's is all that unsustainable either. His contact rate is higher than Soler's amazingly enough and his LD% is higher too. I'm really not sure Soler is even a better offensive player, obviously not even taking defense into account.

 

you're alive?!

 

Yeah, just superstitious. Wasn't posting much when the season got started so was waiting for a cold streak to start back. Now that its apparent one of those isn't ever happening, [expletive] it, I'll just post again.

 

Our cold streak was Wednesday.

[davell]

 

you're alive?!

 

Yeah, just superstitious. Wasn't posting much when the season got started so was waiting for a cold streak to start back. Now that its apparent one of those isn't ever happening, [expletive] it, I'll just post again.

you know if they start losing we're going to beat the [expletive] out of you, right?

 

Yeah, I'll deserve scorn admittedly. A loss on occasion is expected though and after taking the first 2 here after the dark time of the double header, I feel I'm in the clear to post. Radio silence will commence again if we go on any sort of bad stretch.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I'm almost expecting someone like Sean Rodriguez to come out of the dugout on inside pitches

[Thrilho]

I'm starting to really like this whole Baez at third and Bryant in left thing.

Yep. This is the optimal lineup, at least until Soler stops being terrible.

If you flipped Javy's and Jorge's BABIP's we'd be talking about Jorge being a damn near all-star and guessing what Japanese team Javy will be playing on in a few years.

 

Soler had Javy's current BABIP last year and still wasn't any good. In 2015, he had a .361 BABIP, which got him a .262/.324/.399 line. And that was with a 28% LD rate, 36% hard hit rate, and 13.5% HR/FB. Cut to his peripherals this year, and he's been solid at 21% LD, 29% hard hit, and only a 6.7% HR/FB. So with his lack of speed and (to this point) inability to translate exit velocity into slugging I probably wouldn't expect another .350 BABIP.* As the wind starts blowing out I'd at least expect the HR/FB rate to go up, but just assuming that his BABIP is .300+ seems like a stretch at this point.

 

He's cut his K rate down from 30% to 25%, so yeah if he got his BABIP up to the .350 range he'd be better than he is now and maybe better than last year. But those were some pretty stellar peripherals in 2015 and he wasn't able to get that much production out of it. Plus he sucks hard in the field and on the bases, so he's not an all-star unless he is absolutely mashing.

 

Then, with Javy, he has had great peripherals both this year and last to get to his great BABIP. LD of 31% last year and 28% this year, hard hit of 33% last year, 30% this year. He can beat out an infield hit, he's been going to right field effectively, and a lot of his hard hit balls find the gaps. Sure if you give him Jorge's .213 BABIP he'd look like horsefeathers, but he hasn't earned it.

 

Not to mention, he's has cut his K% to 23%, so he's also earning that part of his production related to the 7% extra balls he's putting into play. If you give him Jorge's BABIP, but let him keep his K rate, defense, speed, and ISO I don't think anyone is talking about Japan right now. Maybe about how he's lost his spot in the core, but even then I think we'd be seeing a good deal better than Georgie's -0.9 fWAR.

 

 

*Btw, I'm aware that LD% doesn't have awesome correlation with BABIP, but you've got to start somewhere. If you'd prefer, Javy's IFFFB% is 0% in 2016 and 6.3% in 2015, relative to Jorge's 10% in 2016 and 12% in 2015.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Framing magic!

[David]

nice first inning for jon outside of that weird walk to freese

[Fred Hornkohl]

CUBS are 25-7 (.781) when Fowler starts at cf

CUBS are 25-7 (.781) when Fowler hits in the leadoff spot

 

 

Go CUBS !!

[David]

derrick rose threw out the first pitch today?