Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-26-16

[toonsterwu]

Stop if you've heard this before, but Chesny Young is on base again. This time with an RBI single.

 

I'm still trying to decide whether or not I have time to take him and Rademacher seriously.

 

Realistically, much as I like Chesny Young, he's the type of guy that, for me, as I said about Torreyes back in the day and others, simply has to prove it up each level. In that respects, he's still a relatively fringe prospect, as is Bijan. That said, a fringe prospect who is a utility player that can play MI is far more valuable than a fringe corner OF prospect like Rademacher. Young has a better hit tool than Bijan, and has better raw bat speed, at least, he did (not sure about anything this year). He was a college shortstop who ... if i recall correctly right now ... showed very well one summer in one of the Wood bat leagues - Northwoods, I think. I'm pretty certain that he's handled some 3rd before, to go with 2nd, and I'm pretty sure he's not going to show a David Kelton arm in the OF. A comparison to Ryan Theriot sounds ... awkward ... but really, if Theriot was thought of as simply as a last man on the bench, utility type option ... he'd be alright. I think Chesny has a better hit tool than Theriot ever did, but it's not that extreme.

 

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but Rademacher has a big time arm, IIRC. The type of arm that might be able to give transitioning a shot, IIRC.

[Cubswin11]

Geez, Jeffrey Baez had three outfield assists today. He got Andrew Stevenson at third base twice.

 

I saw that and forgot to post about it. I knew he had a decent arm and that he's piled up some outfield assists in the past. But maybe I've been sleeping on his arm? I don't remember any glowing reports about it. But he now has 31 outfield assists in 169 games in RF since 2014.

I know he's youngish but his offensive numbers aren't great, I wonder if there is potential for him to transition to pitching in the near future if the arm is truly that good.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but Rademacher has a big time arm, IIRC. The type of arm that might be able to give transitioning a shot, IIRC.

 

Yep. Most teams liked him more as a pitcher when he was drafted but he wanted to hit and the Cubs were okay with that.

[CubsWin]

Stop if you've heard this before, but Chesny Young is on base again. This time with an RBI single.

 

I'm still trying to decide whether or not I have time to take him and Rademacher seriously.

 

Realistically, much as I like Chesny Young, he's the type of guy that, for me, as I said about Torreyes back in the day and others, simply has to prove it up each level. In that respects, he's still a relatively fringe prospect, as is Bijan. That said, a fringe prospect who is a utility player that can play MI is far more valuable than a fringe corner OF prospect like Rademacher. Young has a better hit tool than Bijan, and has better raw bat speed, at least, he did (not sure about anything this year). He was a college shortstop who ... if i recall correctly right now ... showed very well one summer in one of the Wood bat leagues - Northwoods, I think. I'm pretty certain that he's handled some 3rd before, to go with 2nd, and I'm pretty sure he's not going to show a David Kelton arm in the OF. A comparison to Ryan Theriot sounds ... awkward ... but really, if Theriot was thought of as simply as a last man on the bench, utility type option ... he'd be alright. I think Chesny has a better hit tool than Theriot ever did, but it's not that extreme.

 

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but Rademacher has a big time arm, IIRC. The type of arm that might be able to give transitioning a shot, IIRC.

You are correct. Rademacher fell to the 13th round because he told teams he wanted to hit and hit only. He had a mid-90s FB from the left side which doesn't grow on trees and didn't blow people away with his bat in college, so teams saw him more as a pitcher. The Cubs promised to give him a shot in the field with the caveat that if it didn't work out he'd return to the mound. He's made enough progress every year that they haven't asked him to transition back yet. I would imagine this year (or next depending) is a make or break one for him with the bat. He turns 25 on June 15th.

 

I agree with you for the most part on Chesny, but the Torreyes comparison, while in the ballpark, isn't that great. Beyond rookie ball and Low-A, Torreyes never put up the numbers Young has. He's also quite bit smaller than Young. Their biggest similarity is K/BB ratio, but their High-A numbers and thus far AA numbers aren't comparable.

 

That said, we agree Young is most likely a utility guy, certainly on a good team. Perhaps something along the line of La Stella whose minor league numbers track better with Young's thus far.

[CubsWin]

Vic Caratini has reached base in 13 straight games and has hit in 7 of his last 8 raising his line of .148/.281/.296 to .259/.412/.389 in the last 10 days.

 

Jeimer Candelario has hit safely in 7 of his last 8 with 3 doubles and 2 HRs in that span with 9 walks against 4 Ks. His line has gone from .167/.255/.214 to .217/.345/.377.

 

Zagunis didn't have such a slow start but he has reached base in at 14 straight and has hits in 5 out of his last 6. His OBP is up to .366 despite a low average.

 

McKinney is the only one still struggling. I know he had a knee injury late last season and a long rehab process that carried over into spring training. As was said earlier, maybe that is having an effect in some way.

[CubsWin]

AZPhil on LHP Jose Paulino in AZ:

 

Jose Paulino (link is external) combined Cactus League Extended Spring Training line (three outings):

9.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R (1 ER), 2 BB, 8 K, 15/3 GO/AO

 

The 21-year old Paulino features a heavy 91-93 MPH sinker that touches 94-95 (hence the extreme GO rate), a hard-breaking slider, and a so-so change-up, but has struggled to command his electric stuff throughout his career. He was the last cut from the South Bend squad at the end of Minor League Camp, so he could find himself in the Midwest League sooner rather than later. If you're looking for an "under-the-radar" Cubs pitching prospect, Paulino might be one. At the very least, he could eventually be a very effective lefty reliever at the higher levels

I was really happy when I read that over at cub reporter. Paulino's been a favorite sleeper of mine for a while now. I had him pegged for the South Bend rotation. Don't know if he was struggling this spring or whether they wanted the college guys to get acclimated or what, but I look forward to the day when Cease, De La Cruz (out with an elbow, don't know the severity), Alzolay, Paulino, Sands and Steele are all going. That could be the South Bend rotation come the 2nd half.

[Little Slide Rooter]

 

I'm still trying to decide whether or not I have time to take him and Rademacher seriously.

 

Realistically, much as I like Chesny Young, he's the type of guy that, for me, as I said about Torreyes back in the day and others, simply has to prove it up each level. In that respects, he's still a relatively fringe prospect, as is Bijan. That said, a fringe prospect who is a utility player that can play MI is far more valuable than a fringe corner OF prospect like Rademacher. Young has a better hit tool than Bijan, and has better raw bat speed, at least, he did (not sure about anything this year). He was a college shortstop who ... if i recall correctly right now ... showed very well one summer in one of the Wood bat leagues - Northwoods, I think. I'm pretty certain that he's handled some 3rd before, to go with 2nd, and I'm pretty sure he's not going to show a David Kelton arm in the OF. A comparison to Ryan Theriot sounds ... awkward ... but really, if Theriot was thought of as simply as a last man on the bench, utility type option ... he'd be alright. I think Chesny has a better hit tool than Theriot ever did, but it's not that extreme.

 

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but Rademacher has a big time arm, IIRC. The type of arm that might be able to give transitioning a shot, IIRC.

You are correct. Rademacher fell to the 13th round because he told teams he wanted to hit and hit only. He had a mid-90s FB from the left side which doesn't grow on trees and didn't blow people away with his bat in college, so teams saw him more as a pitcher. The Cubs promised to give him a shot in the field with the caveat that if it didn't work out he'd return to the mound. He's made enough progress every year that they haven't asked him to transition back yet. I would imagine this year (or next depending) is a make or break one for him with the bat. He turns 25 on June 15th.

 

I agree with you for the most part on Chesny, but the Torreyes comparison, while in the ballpark, isn't that great. Beyond rookie ball and Low-A, Torreyes never put up the numbers Young has. He's also quite bit smaller than Young. Their biggest similarity is K/BB ratio, but their High-A numbers and thus far AA numbers aren't comparable.

 

That said, we agree Young is most likely a utility guy, certainly on a good team. Perhaps something along the line of La Stella whose minor league numbers track better with Young's thus far.

 

On thing of note with Chesney Young is that he has 2 home runs after having a total of 1 in his 2 previous seasons. Not saying that he'll blossom into Dustin Pedroia, but maybe more David Eckstein than Ryan Theriot?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Speaking of quiter minor league mainstays off to big starts:

 

Felix Pena's doing well for himself with a 0.85/0.55 ERA/WHiP and 2/16 BB/K through 11 IP.

 

Paul Blackburn: 26 IP 0.35/0.85 ERA/WHiP, 11/4 K. He's never been much of a strikeout guy, so I'm not sure if he's a ground ball guy who could be a poorer mans Kyle Hendricks or a fly ball guy who'd be destroyed upon reaching the PCL.

 

ETA Gerardo Concepcion, who I completely forgot existed: 10.1 IP, 0.00/0.48 ERA/WHiP, 1/9 BB/K.

 

It's nice not having to desperately cling to the hope that our fringe prospects blossom into serviceable big leaguers, but it's still fun to look in on them every now and then.

[weis21]

This Concepcion emergence is kind of out of nowhere, right? Interesting to see if he can keep it up. I know he had mono and some other injuries in years past, but it would be cool if he emerged as a MR guy out of nowhere.

 

Not that I'm super concerned about middle relief on this current Cubs squad.

[craig]

Darwin Barney...DJ Lemahieu...Ronald Torreyes...Marco Hernandez....Chesny Young? The Cubs have been producing this same-ish kind of player, even Sam Fuld was an OF version of that.

 

Typing/grouping/comping players is fun and helpful. But not all low-power contact-hitters are quite the same. Not all utility-guys are the same.

*If Darwin Barney (career .246 BA, .295 OBP) had been a .300-hitter with .360+ OBP, he'd have made a mint.

*2008 Theroit, with the .387 OBP, was a really, really valuable player. The 2009 version with the .343 OBP, and the subsequent career Theriot who never was higher than .323, was a very different player.

*If Chesny is a .320-OBP guy, that's one thing; if he can be be a .360+ OBP guy, different story.

 

Same with defense. LaStella is a utility player, but he's more OK than good at 2B or 3B. Not sure whether Chesny is likely to exceed the LaStella level defensively. If he could achieve the prime Zobrist level defensively, while OBP'ing at .350+, you've got a very usable utility player.

 

I've heard 2nd hand that McLeod himself, before the season, envisioned Chesny as a LaStella type, with better speed and defense, but less power.

[sneakypower]

so, Brock Holt is the dream here?

[Little Slide Rooter]

so, Brock Holt is the dream here?

 

Hey, as long as they're supplements and not the guys we're relying on, I'm good with cranking out Brock Holts like Lumberjacks and Gunfighters in World Zombination.

[CubsWin]

so, Brock Holt is the dream here?

 

Hey, as long as they're supplements and not the guys we're relying on, I'm good with cranking out Brock Holts like Lumberjacks and Gunfighters in World Zombination.

I don't want there to be any supplements. No risk of PEDs at all.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Typing/grouping/comping players is fun and helpful. But not all low-power contact-hitters are quite the same. Not all utility-guys are the same.

*If Darwin Barney (career .246 BA, .295 OBP) had been a .300-hitter with .360+ OBP, he'd have made a mint.

*2008 Theroit, with the .387 OBP, was a really, really valuable player. The 2009 version with the .343 OBP, and the subsequent career Theriot who never was higher than .323, was a very different player.

*If Chesny is a .320-OBP guy, that's one thing; if he can be be a .360+ OBP guy, different story.

 

Same with defense. LaStella is a utility player, but he's more OK than good at 2B or 3B. Not sure whether Chesny is likely to exceed the LaStella level defensively. If he could achieve the prime Zobrist level defensively, while OBP'ing at .350+, you've got a very usable utility player.

 

I've heard 2nd hand that McLeod himself, before the season, envisioned Chesny as a LaStella type, with better speed and defense, but less power.

 

That sounds alot like the other guys mentioned. LaStella is roughly that kind of player, just he has more secondary bat skills while others field and run better. For a healthy first division club they're all bench type players.

 

Generally I think you can start this kind of player - very high contact and BA in the minors, low on the other stuff, the ability to play or spot the MIF, avg or better speed/baserunning - for a year or two in the mid-20s without being too embarrassed, maybe even get a good year. Definitely would be looking to upgrade the whole time. High contact and defense are younger player skills so these players tend to phase out of starting pretty quickly without power or patience to fall back on. After that they might float around for a long time getting gigs as competent bench/role guys.

 

Yeah, we get it, they're all bench guys that make contact and don't hit for power. They also aren't supremely talented athletically, being unable to play shortstop. They are bench/utility-type guys.

 

But, he's saying they're not all quite the same. Darwin Barney was elite defensively at second and worthless with the bat. Chesny Young has been able to maintain a high batting average, while also walking a good amount. In fact, he's walked a lot more than any other guy you listed. He's also not anywhere near the same level defensively as a few of those guys, like LeMahieu and Barney. All of those guys you listed get what value they have from different avenues.

 

La Stella is probably the best comp offensively. They are low-power guys that make a lot of contact and also take walks. Who knows how they will match up defensively. But, with the bat, they are similar. Chesny Young, to make it in the big leagues, will have to rely on what La Stella has relied on. He won't get by on his defense like Darwin Barney or D.J. LeMahieu. But, that's OK, because he is a much better hitter than Darwin Barney. Darwin Barney just isn't a great comp. They are similar in that they are low-power, high-contact guys that can't play short. But the similarities end there.

[craig]

Just to raise another whacky some-aspects-comp for Chesny: Juan Pierre! (Without the speed or CF defense....)

 

Over his career, Juan Pierre hit .295 with IsoP of .066. Averaged 1 HR per season, and averaged 5 singles per XBH. That's the kind of singles ratio that Chesny might have. Pierre had a 6% K-rate. Almost inconceivable that Young could K that little, but basically that's the type of low-K mostly-singles contact profile that Young has.

 

Obviously three massive differences:

1. Pierre was really fast and a prolific base-stealer. Huge advantage Pierre.

2. Pierre played CF. Huge advantage Pierre.

3. Young walks much more. (Pierre's K-rate was astonishingly low, but his walk rate was even lower.) Advantage Chesny.

[craig]

A big consideration in where to rank Happ is the likelihood he sticks at second. He made his 6th error in 18 games today. Errors aren't the be all end all, but I've never read anything glowing about his defense. So until I start reading some glowing stuff I'm assuming he's a corner outfielder.

 

I'm also reserving judgment a bit until I see how his K rate shakes out. Brett Jackson had a 14% BB / 21% K as a 22 year old at A+. 11% BB / 23.5% K as a 23 year old at AA. I'm definitely not doing cartwheels yet about a 22% K rate out of a 22 year old Happ at A+. And the BB% can be deceiving at that level because he could just be getting pitched around due to the power.....

 

Small nitpick, but Happ is 21, not 22.

 

It's going to be interesting to see how he progresses this year. Including the K-rate. I'm hoping is settles down some, and that he doesn't have a couple of 4-K nights every month. Nothing is ever safe with high-K prospects, I don't think. Still, there is considerable intrigue with a guy who is 1.000+ OPS with power and massive OBP at age 21.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I didn't say they were all the same, that would be weird. La Stella isn't the best comp offensively, he hit for much more power than Young. Young has a .077 IsoSLG in the minors to LaStella's .151.

 

True, which is why he said La Stella with less power and maybe some more speed and a little better defense. La Stella isn't the perfect comp, either. The point is that just because he is a back-up utility infielder type, that doesn't doesn't mean he is the same kind of player as Darwin Barney.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Pondering whether this guy is closer to La Stella or Barney (it's Barney) as a prospect kinda says it all, no? If he fields like La Stella then this is all kind of moot anyway. La Stella survives because he has some pop in his bat.

 

Meh... I'm all for having a Darwin Barney/Tommy Le Stella as a bench player on a rookie contract, especially when he is a 14th rounder that I previously had no interest in. I hope he keeps it up.

[Thrilho]

A big consideration in where to rank Happ is the likelihood he sticks at second. He made his 6th error in 18 games today. Errors aren't the be all end all, but I've never read anything glowing about his defense. So until I start reading some glowing stuff I'm assuming he's a corner outfielder.

 

I'm also reserving judgment a bit until I see how his K rate shakes out. Brett Jackson had a 14% BB / 21% K as a 22 year old at A+. 11% BB / 23.5% K as a 23 year old at AA. I'm definitely not doing cartwheels yet about a 22% K rate out of a 22 year old Happ at A+. And the BB% can be deceiving at that level because he could just be getting pitched around due to the power.....

 

Small nitpick, but Happ is 21, not 22.

 

It's going to be interesting to see how he progresses this year. Including the K-rate. I'm hoping is settles down some, and that he doesn't have a couple of 4-K nights every month. Nothing is ever safe with high-K prospects, I don't think. Still, there is considerable intrigue with a guy who is 1.000+ OPS with power and massive OBP at age 21.

 

Yeah, bad wording. I meant his age 22 season, as his birthday is in August. Brett Jackson's birthday is in September, so you can shift his ages back too to align.

 

But basically he's 4 months younger than Almora playing 2 levels below. I don't want to be the anti-Happ downer guy, but he was being discussed as the top overall prospect in the system, so wanted to give some reasons for why I still rank some other guys ahead of him. Still rooting for him to keep mashing, play second at a passable level and keep a handle on the Ks. If he can handle second he's probably still the highest ceiling guy in the system.