soccer soccer soccer

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Acosta and De La Torre's performance definitely help my nerves about final window rotation a little bit. Part of the problem in Couva was the lack of rotation, and the midfield is the only place where I had worries about the two-deep. Home against Honduras is not the same as in San Jose, and we've seen Acosta shrink against better opponents, but if you can get Adams and Reyna healthy and avoid any other injuries, they should have plenty of depth to get the performances they need.

[stitchface]

Acosta and De La Torre's performance definitely help my nerves about final window rotation a little bit. Part of the problem in Couva was the lack of rotation, and the midfield is the only place where I had worries about the two-deep. Home against Honduras is not the same as in San Jose, and we've seen Acosta shrink against better opponents, but if you can get Adams and Reyna healthy and avoid any other injuries, they should have plenty of depth to get the performances they need.

 

yes, this was the perfect kind of game for Acosta, where he isn't handling the ball under pressure out of the back. That's where he makes me really nervous.

[soccer10k]

[tweet]

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Good work, US Soccer.

[stitchface]

upping the ante on bad conditions is not a good thing.

 

I don't know if y'all saw the story on the AFCON ref calling the game early - twice. My immediate thought was heat exhaustion - he ended up in the hospital. There are limits.

[wolf stansson]

[stitchface]

https://www.espn.com/soccer/fifa-club-world-cup/story/4585586/robot-var-offside-disallows-first-goal-at-fifa-club-world-cup

[Transmogrified Tiger]

https://www.espn.com/soccer/fifa-club-world-cup/story/4585586/robot-var-offside-disallows-first-goal-at-fifa-club-world-cup

 

I'm a technology guy and I want them to keep incorporating ideas like this, but they have to stop with the idea that we can objectively know if a player's armpit is an inch and a half offside, at a minimum the cameras are not good enough for that. Build in a margin for error where it's inconclusive and the original call stands.

[stitchface]

https://www.espn.com/soccer/fifa-club-world-cup/story/4585586/robot-var-offside-disallows-first-goal-at-fifa-club-world-cup

 

I'm a technology guy and I want them to keep incorporating ideas like this, but they have to stop with the idea that we can objectively know if a player's armpit is an inch and a half offside, at a minimum the cameras are not good enough for that. Build in a margin for error where it's inconclusive and the original call stands.

 

It will be interesting to see how good it is. I don't think there is an original call. They could amend it to full body is offside - would lead to more scoring and also allow for easier calls for ARs where technology is not in place. Simple problem for ARs is they cannot be watching ball, multiple attackers and defenders at same time- it's an impossible rule to enforce.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

They could amend it to full body is offside - would lead to more scoring and also allow for easier calls for ARs where technology is not in place.

 

I haven't deeply investigated this(and some of it is unknowable), but there's a theory that if you make offsides more lenient, you actually suppress scoring because defenders respond by playing lower lines and take fewer chances. That might not be the worst thing in the world given the current trend towards 90 minutes of pressing, but it's one of those counterintuitive things where you do have to be mindful of how incentives change behavior.

[stitchface]

They could amend it to full body is offside - would lead to more scoring and also allow for easier calls for ARs where technology is not in place.

 

I haven't deeply investigated this(and some of it is unknowable), but there's a theory that if you make offsides more lenient, you actually suppress scoring because defenders respond by playing lower lines and take fewer chances. That might not be the worst thing in the world given the current trend towards 90 minutes of pressing, but it's one of those counterintuitive things where you do have to be mindful of how incentives change behavior.

 

but that would open more space . . . I agree it could have unforeseen consequences but I actually don't think this would be that big of a change. except of course what constitutes whole body . . .

[Transmogrified Tiger]

They could amend it to full body is offside - would lead to more scoring and also allow for easier calls for ARs where technology is not in place.

 

I haven't deeply investigated this(and some of it is unknowable), but there's a theory that if you make offsides more lenient, you actually suppress scoring because defenders respond by playing lower lines and take fewer chances. That might not be the worst thing in the world given the current trend towards 90 minutes of pressing, but it's one of those counterintuitive things where you do have to be mindful of how incentives change behavior.

 

but that would open more space . . . I agree it could have unforeseen consequences but I actually don't think this would be that big of a change. except of course what constitutes whole body . . .

 

As the theory goes you do have more space in the middle, but teams are just less adventurous. It wouldn't be this extreme but imagine a bunker v. a bunker, more space in the middle doesn't mean as much if you're attacking 7 v 9 instead of e.g. 2 v 3 with an opponent's high line. But we just don't know, and it'd take years for tactics to evolve, like it did when they stopped letting keepers pick up back passes.

[imb]

reyna on the bench for dortmund today

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Zagadou just had an error(leading to an own goal) so bad that I’m still not sure what he was trying to do

 

edit:

[wolf stansson]

Gio back!!

[stitchface]

Gio back!!

 

Great to see though he didn't look great. Dortmund really horsefeathers the bed though. I think Leverkusen is my new favorite team to watch!

[soccer10k]

ManU just had a goal ruled off for offside but it was a weird one. Harry McGuire essentially set a screen on the defender who was watching Varane, who ended up scoring the goal. McGuire was offside when the ball was kicked and was judged to have been involved with the play even though he didn’t go after the ball at all. Therefore no goal due to offside.

 

Never seen that one called before.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I hadn't paid close attention to it, but Everton are gonna be playing with relegation fire pretty quick if they don't sort things out. After this loss to Newcastle they're gonna be 3 points over the line with a game in hand, and after this weekend they'll have already played their second match against Newcastle, Norwich, and Leeds. Not a lot of breathing room for Lampard and his new additions to get up to speed.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

New FIFA rankings out today: https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men?dateId=id13554

 

US swaps places with Mexico, dropping to 13th. With the caveat that I'm not super well versed in how sensitive the rankings are, getting into Pot 1 is functionally if not statistically impossible at this stage, but thanks to Italy and Portugal being drawn in the same UEFA playoff path, they only need to stay in the Top 16 to be in Pot 2. The extra good news is they have a healthy lead on that front, they're as close to 8th as they are to 17th. Plus, all the immediate teams ready to jump into the Top 16 are in danger of not even qualifying:

 

14 - Switzerland - qualified, no more competitive games before draw, a qualified US shouldn't drop below them

15 - Croatia - qualified, no more competitive games before draw, a qualified US shouldn't drop below them

16 - Uruguay - in 4th of 4 auto-qualifier spots w/ 2 match days left

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

17 - Sweden - playoff w/ Russia/Poland/Czech

18 - Senegal - playoff w/ Egypt

19 - Columbia - 4 points out of inter-confederation playoff(5 points from auto-qualifying) w/ 2 match days left

20 - Wales - playoff w/ Scotland/Ukraine/Austria

21 - Iran - qualified w/ 2 match days left, further from the US on points than the US is to pot 1

 

 

tl;dr if the US plays well enough to qualify, they'll almost certainly be in Pot 2. Bummer because there was a small window to make it to Pot 1, but nice that it goes a long way to avoiding a group of death.

[UMFan83]

New FIFA rankings out today: https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men?dateId=id13554

 

US swaps places with Mexico, dropping to 13th. With the caveat that I'm not super well versed in how sensitive the rankings are, getting into Pot 1 is functionally if not statistically impossible at this stage, but thanks to Italy and Portugal being drawn in the same UEFA playoff path, they only need to stay in the Top 16 to be in Pot 2. The extra good news is they have a healthy lead on that front, they're as close to 8th as they are to 17th. Plus, all the immediate teams ready to jump into the Top 16 are in danger of not even qualifying:

 

14 - Switzerland - qualified, no more competitive games before draw, a qualified US shouldn't drop below them

15 - Croatia - qualified, no more competitive games before draw, a qualified US shouldn't drop below them

16 - Uruguay - in 4th of 4 auto-qualifier spots w/ 2 match days left

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

17 - Sweden - playoff w/ Russia/Poland/Czech

18 - Senegal - playoff w/ Egypt

19 - Columbia - 4 points out of inter-confederation playoff(5 points from auto-qualifying) w/ 2 match days left

20 - Wales - playoff w/ Scotland/Ukraine/Austria

21 - Iran - qualified w/ 2 match days left, further from the US on points than the US is to pot 1

 

 

tl;dr if the US plays well enough to qualify, they'll almost certainly be in Pot 2. Bummer because there was a small window to make it to Pot 1, but nice that it goes a long way to avoiding a group of death.

 

Not as well versed on pot draws for the WC, does the US have the same chance of getting any of the pot 1 teams? Basically asking the US odds of being in a group with Qatar.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

New FIFA rankings out today: https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men?dateId=id13554

 

US swaps places with Mexico, dropping to 13th. With the caveat that I'm not super well versed in how sensitive the rankings are, getting into Pot 1 is functionally if not statistically impossible at this stage, but thanks to Italy and Portugal being drawn in the same UEFA playoff path, they only need to stay in the Top 16 to be in Pot 2. The extra good news is they have a healthy lead on that front, they're as close to 8th as they are to 17th. Plus, all the immediate teams ready to jump into the Top 16 are in danger of not even qualifying:

 

14 - Switzerland - qualified, no more competitive games before draw, a qualified US shouldn't drop below them

15 - Croatia - qualified, no more competitive games before draw, a qualified US shouldn't drop below them

16 - Uruguay - in 4th of 4 auto-qualifier spots w/ 2 match days left

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

17 - Sweden - playoff w/ Russia/Poland/Czech

18 - Senegal - playoff w/ Egypt

19 - Columbia - 4 points out of inter-confederation playoff(5 points from auto-qualifying) w/ 2 match days left

20 - Wales - playoff w/ Scotland/Ukraine/Austria

21 - Iran - qualified w/ 2 match days left, further from the US on points than the US is to pot 1

 

 

tl;dr if the US plays well enough to qualify, they'll almost certainly be in Pot 2. Bummer because there was a small window to make it to Pot 1, but nice that it goes a long way to avoiding a group of death.

 

Not as well versed on pot draws for the WC, does the US have the same chance of getting any of the pot 1 teams? Basically asking the US odds of being in a group with Qatar.

 

I don't know, I did a little searching and found very little about the draw itself, I had to lean on wikipedia to see that 2018 changed to doing pure FIFA ranking pots instead of geographic pots 2-4, so even that is assuming it stays the same. Since Qatar isn't in a confederation with any other Pot 2 teams(unless Iran has a lot of things go right) I think the odds are equal, but I'm not sure how much they change the draw to prevent downstream issues with other confederations(e.g. 3 UEFA teams in a group).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Also of note, Canada has climbed up to 33rd, and if my napkin mathing is accurate, right now they should stay in front of at least 6 other qualifying teams barring final window catastrophe. That means to make it to Pot 3 they'd need 2 of these to happen (roughly sorted by likelihood):

 

- AFC playoff team(currently Australia or UAE) to beat the CONMEBOL playoff team(currently Peru)

- Ghana beat Nigeria in their CAF playoff

- Congo beat Morocco in their CAF playoff

- Scotland win their playoff but not leapfrog Canada on points(currently 40th)

- Russia win their playoff but not leapfrog Canada(currently 35th)

- Turkey or North Macedonia win their playoff but not leapfrog Canada(currently 39th and 67th)

 

If Canada does get those breaks, it not only helps them avoid a group of death, but also keeps another Pot 4 team available for the US(and Mexico) while cutting out a potential Pot 3 match.

[stitchface]

decent summary of national team pay:

 

https://www.espn.com/soccer/united-states-usaw/story/4589310/uswntusmnt-pay-gap-explained-comparing-their-us-soccer-contracts-as-both-sides-negotiate-new-cbas

[wolf stansson]

 

I love how far American soccer media accounts will stretch to get engagement via hype. Aaronson played very well, but if he was a tad sharper, they would’ve won.

[imb]

no, he's messi

[stitchface]

no, he's messi

 

he is Messi - just not as good.

 

Do you guys think Berhalter's salary is justified? Is he that much better than replacement level?