soccer soccer soccer

[stitchface]

 

Entering today only Canada had more and it was 15. There's plenty of things to improve but playing bunkered teams on horrible fields with refs that require broken bones to give cards is gonna be a fairly low scoring environment as a baseline.

 

naw, these are weak excuses. The US attack is poor.

 

I mean it's a pretty factual reality, only 19 of 37 games in the Octagonal featured a team scoring more than 1 goal, with Canada having 5, The US 4, and Mexico 4. The third games in windows have had a 2 goal team in 6 of 8 games while first and second matches are 13 of 29. There is a lot that the US can look inwards about, whether it's about individuals(availability w/ Reyna/Weah/Pulisic, form with the strikers and Pulisic) or structure(tactical choices slowing things down, not choosing Brooks, Adams' lack of passing range at the 6), but we should also be mindful of the environment that suppresses scoring.

 

or is the lack of skill? I mean, these are not good teams. The lack of ideas and organization with the US is concerning - even when they break through, the fall apart in the last third and this isn't because of the refs or bunkering teams. Not playing together is certainly a factor. Why the hell is Zardes out there? He was awful. I also suspect that the left back is not very good (though he did score the only goal). They don't seem to be able to build up the left. Dest, McKennie, Adams, and Weah seem connect really well - is there a style difference from the European players to the MLS players? Certainly Gio would be a big help but you can't count on everyone being available. Once Dest and Adams went out, it looked like McKennie was trying to do it all himself. and what is going on with Pulisic? Out of form? Doesn't like cold? Teammates? I mean, we need more than a set play specialist from him. He got one ball on the left side of the box 1v1 with the right back and didn't even get a shot off - the US needs him to be better.

[UMFan83]

I’m not thrilled with being 1 point out of the playoff with 4 matches left including our hardest window. Still 5 points ahead of the disaster line though

[UMFan83]

Not sure if people find these interesting but here are the charts after matchday 10. US odds of qualifying drop to 89%

 

 

[stitchface]

I’m not thrilled with being 1 point out of the playoff with 4 matches left including our hardest window. Still 5 points ahead of the disaster line though

 

yes, though if they win their two home games, they are really likely to finish top 3. If they can't beat Honduras and Panama at home . . . then we're screwed.

[stitchface]

 

13 goals in 10 qualifying matches is awful. Not like it’s some issue just in this window. We can’t score with any consistency.

 

Entering today only Canada had more and it was 15. There's plenty of things to improve but playing bunkered teams on horrible fields with refs that require broken bones to give cards is gonna be a fairly low scoring environment as a baseline.

 

naw, these are weak excuses. The US attack is poor.

 

63% possession and 0.94 xG. That's terrible.

[stitchface]

Absolutely frustrating.

 

It feels like every match is the same. No urgency until 15-30 minutes to go.

 

I guess I didn't see this at all yesterday. They played super hard, intense and made Canada completely hapless. they just have no ideas around the box but I didn't see a lack of urgency. I also didn't see any more urgency in the last 15 - I saw fatigue and desperation.

[stitchface]

I'm starting to lose faith in Berhalter. I sure hope he's blowing smoke here.

 

After starting Jesus Ferreira against El Salvador on Thursday, Berhalter turned to Gyasi Zardes -- whom he coached at the club level with the Columbus Crew -- at striker, but the move didn't pay off. Zardes didn't register any of the Americans' three shots on target and was replaced by Ricardo Pepi in the 69th minute.

 

"That was an easy one," Berhalter said, when asked why Zardes started. "We knew what the game was going to look like. We knew it's a very narrow field, small field. We knew it was going to be a very physical game and we thought that Gyasi would give us that physicality. And from looking at his performance. I think he did that. Again, I don't think we got him enough service in the box to get him dangerous."

[UMFan83]

Wish there was a scenario generator out there that could do the math. But I think if the US wins their 2 remaining home games, they likely won't need a result at Mexico and Costa Rica.

 

Right now:

 

1. Canada whatever

2. USA 18, +6

3. Mexico 18, +5

4. Panama 17 +2

5. Costa Rica 13 +0

 

Lets say USA loses the road matches and wins the home matches. That puts US at 24 points.

 

To match that:

 

Mexico needs 6 points from: @ Panama, vs. US, @ Honduras, vs. El Salvador. Probably pretty likely to get 6 points from those games.

 

Panama needs 7 points from: @ Mexico, vs. Honduras, vs. Canada (again assuming the USMNT beats Panama at home)

 

Costa Rica needs 11 points from: @Jamaica, vs. Canada, @ El Salvador, vs. USMNT

 

Getting 6 points from the home matches is easier said than done but IF we can accomplish that, both Panama and Costa Rica need results in all their remaining matches to pass the US.

 

None of this is groundbreaking and is why we are still at 89% chance to advance, but it feels better typing it all out. Now if the USA doesn't get 3 points in Wednesday, we have the right to fully panic.

[stitchface]

Wish there was a scenario generator out there that could do the math. But I think if the US wins their 2 remaining home games, they likely won't need a result at Mexico and Costa Rica.

 

Right now:

 

1. Canada whatever

2. USA 18, +6

3. Mexico 18, +5

4. Panama 17 +2

5. Costa Rica 13 +0

 

Lets say USA loses the road matches and wins the home matches. That puts US at 24 points.

 

To match that:

 

Mexico needs 6 points from: @ Panama, vs. US, @ Honduras, vs. El Salvador. Probably pretty likely to get 6 points from those games.

 

Panama needs 7 points from: @ Mexico, vs. Honduras, vs. Canada (again assuming the USMNT beats Panama at home)

 

Costa Rica needs 11 points from: @Jamaica, vs. Canada, @ El Salvador, vs. USMNT

 

Getting 6 points from the home matches is easier said than done but IF we can accomplish that, both Panama and Costa Rica need results in all their remaining matches to pass the US.

 

None of this is groundbreaking and is why we are still at 89% chance to advance, but it feels better typing it all out. Now if the USA doesn't get 3 points in Wednesday, we have the right to fully panic.

 

yea, the two home games are must win at this point. I don't think Costa Rica catches the US but hate to leave that to the last game. If the US beats Panama, its hard to see Panama catching the US though the last game against Canada is unlikely to matter for Canada. The Mexico-Panama game is in Mexico right? Wednesday is critical if the US wins and Panama loses, it becomes impossible for Panama to lose at US and catch US.

[UMFan83]

Wish there was a scenario generator out there that could do the math. But I think if the US wins their 2 remaining home games, they likely won't need a result at Mexico and Costa Rica.

 

Right now:

 

1. Canada whatever

2. USA 18, +6

3. Mexico 18, +5

4. Panama 17 +2

5. Costa Rica 13 +0

 

Lets say USA loses the road matches and wins the home matches. That puts US at 24 points.

 

To match that:

 

Mexico needs 6 points from: @ Panama, vs. US, @ Honduras, vs. El Salvador. Probably pretty likely to get 6 points from those games.

 

Panama needs 7 points from: @ Mexico, vs. Honduras, vs. Canada (again assuming the USMNT beats Panama at home)

 

Costa Rica needs 11 points from: @Jamaica, vs. Canada, @ El Salvador, vs. USMNT

 

Getting 6 points from the home matches is easier said than done but IF we can accomplish that, both Panama and Costa Rica need results in all their remaining matches to pass the US.

 

None of this is groundbreaking and is why we are still at 89% chance to advance, but it feels better typing it all out. Now if the USA doesn't get 3 points in Wednesday, we have the right to fully panic.

 

yea, the two home games are must win at this point. I don't think Costa Rica catches the US but hate to leave that to the last game. If the US beats Panama, its hard to see Panama catching the US though the last game against Canada is unlikely to matter for Canada. The Mexico-Panama game is in Mexico right? Wednesday is critical if the US wins and Panama loses, it becomes impossible for Panama to lose at US and catch US.

 

Good point. If the ideal results happen on Wednesday the table looks like this:

 

Canada - horsefeathers off

US - 21

Mexico - 21

Panama - 17

Costa Rica - 13

 

If you are also assuming a US win against Panama, I believe that eliminates both teams from catching the US. So despite the disappointing window so far, with some luck we can ensure that only the Panama game truly matters in the last window, with the other matches our fallbacks.

[stitchface]

Auston Trusty to Arsenal and Bello to Arminia Bielefeld (lots of Americans in that relegation battle)

[UMFan83]

At what point does it become so cold that it negates the advantage of cold weather vs. a Central American team? Temps at match time are going to be around 6 degrees with a wind chill of -9.

 

I feel like unless we can score on a set-piece, this will be an ugly 0-0 draw which of course would be disastrous.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

At what point does it become so cold that it negates the advantage of cold weather vs. a Central American team? Temps at match time are going to be around 6 degrees with a wind chill of -9.

 

I feel like unless we can score on a set-piece, this will be an ugly 0-0 draw which of course would be disastrous.

 

Bad conditions are always going to be more of an equalizer, but the optimist's case is that the US just played 2 games in the cold while Honduras played 2 home games and isn't as used to cold to begin with. Plus the field looks like it will be in much better shape than the turf in Canada, which if you combine with the lack of snow or high winds hopefully mean playing real soccer should be less of a concern.

 

Setting the conditions aside, Honduras just got eliminated, their coach gave a particularly despondent press conference that left some thinking he might quit before the game, and this is the team the US put up 4 on in the road match.

[soccer10k]

At what point does it become so cold that it negates the advantage of cold weather vs. a Central American team? Temps at match time are going to be around 6 degrees with a wind chill of -9.

 

I feel like unless we can score on a set-piece, this will be an ugly 0-0 draw which of course would be disastrous.

 

I wish outside of Mexico and maybe Costa Rica, we’d just play these games in the best conditions possible. Warner weather, better field, field size you prefer. As TT said, the worse conditions favor the underdog and even things up. That’s why the other teams play us on awful fields all the time. Mucking it up gives them a better chance at a result.

[stitchface]

At what point does it become so cold that it negates the advantage of cold weather vs. a Central American team? Temps at match time are going to be around 6 degrees with a wind chill of -9.

 

I feel like unless we can score on a set-piece, this will be an ugly 0-0 draw which of course would be disastrous.

 

I wish outside of Mexico and maybe Costa Rica, we’d just play these games in the best conditions possible. Warner weather, better field, field size you prefer. As TT said, the worse conditions favor the underdog and even things up. That’s why the other teams play us on awful fields all the time. Mucking it up gives them a better chance at a result.

 

well, the panama game is in Miami . . . supposedly this was all about shorter flights . . . which is asinine.

[soccer10k]

At what point does it become so cold that it negates the advantage of cold weather vs. a Central American team? Temps at match time are going to be around 6 degrees with a wind chill of -9.

 

I feel like unless we can score on a set-piece, this will be an ugly 0-0 draw which of course would be disastrous.

 

I wish outside of Mexico and maybe Costa Rica, we’d just play these games in the best conditions possible. Warner weather, better field, field size you prefer. As TT said, the worse conditions favor the underdog and even things up. That’s why the other teams play us on awful fields all the time. Mucking it up gives them a better chance at a result.

 

well, the panama game is in Miami . . . supposedly this was all about shorter flights . . . which is asinine.

 

Yeah, that's a BS reason. Every window we've had more travel than this. In September going from El Salvador (Sept 2) to Austin (Sept 5) to Honduras (Sept 8). In October, we had no issue going from Panama City on Oct 10 to Columbus on Oct 13 for Costa Rica.

 

They're trying to be too cute with how they schedule the home venues.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Every window we've had more travel than this. In September going from El Salvador (Sept 2) to Austin (Sept 5) to Honduras (Sept 8). In October, we had no issue going from Panama City on Oct 10 to Columbus on Oct 13 for Costa Rica.

 

They're trying to be too cute with how they schedule the home venues.

 

They also had to rotate a lot in 3 game windows, and Berhalter explicitly mentioned cutting out the travel time would help them need to rotate less. Looking at the midfield since that's a place where rotation is needed quickly and there's less depth:

 

@ El Salvador: Adams/McKennie/Aaronson

v. Canada: Adams/Lletget/Acosta

@ Honduras: Adams/Sands/Acosta

 

v. Jamaica: Adams/McKennie/Musah

@ Panama: Musah/Lletget/Acosta

v. Costa Rica: Adams/McKennie/Musah

 

Compare to this window which saw MMA start both games, and while Adams is out with injury I'd fully expect McKennie/Musah to start tonight. In fact there was basically no rest-based rotation for Canada at all, which given the way we approached matchday 4-6 should imply there's going to be very little tonight. Is that worth playing in St. Paul? I'd say no when you could play in like Nashville and have none of this hassle without a ton of extra flight time. But there is a benefit they're getting from it.

[stitchface]

Every window we've had more travel than this. In September going from El Salvador (Sept 2) to Austin (Sept 5) to Honduras (Sept 8). In October, we had no issue going from Panama City on Oct 10 to Columbus on Oct 13 for Costa Rica.

 

They're trying to be too cute with how they schedule the home venues.

 

They also had to rotate a lot in 3 game windows, and Berhalter explicitly mentioned cutting out the travel time would help them need to rotate less. Looking at the midfield since that's a place where rotation is needed quickly and there's less depth:

 

@ El Salvador: Adams/McKennie/Aaronson

v. Canada: Adams/Lletget/Acosta

@ Honduras: Adams/Sands/Acosta

 

v. Jamaica: Adams/McKennie/Musah

@ Panama: Musah/Lletget/Acosta

v. Costa Rica: Adams/McKennie/Musah

 

Compare to this window which saw MMA start both games, and while Adams is out with injury I'd fully expect McKennie/Musah to start tonight. In fact there was basically no rest-based rotation for Canada at all, which given the way we approached matchday 4-6 should imply there's going to be very little tonight. Is that worth playing in St. Paul? I'd say no when you could play in like Nashville and have none of this hassle without a ton of extra flight time. But there is a benefit they're getting from it.

 

I may not be far enough into my coffee but not sure what you are saying here. I don't see how an extra hour or two in the air makes a damn bit of difference. I agree with the sentiment that they are over-thinking it. I think the lack of midfield rotation is my biggest worry for today - McKennie has to be spent and they may be screwed without him.

[stitchface]

https://www.espn.com/soccer/video/latest-videos/600/video/4584271

[Transmogrified Tiger]

El Salvador's players announced a statement saying they were not playing against Canada tonight to protest poor treatment and unpaid bonuses from the federation, then changed their minds in a new statement minutes later.

[wolf stansson]

Benching Pulisic. GGG is not scared. That’s for sure.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Not a perfect cross-section of games but still interesting

 

[wolf stansson]

As one of the world’s foremost, and last remaining Jordan Morris stans, I expect him to stretch the back line & beat the hell out of their miserable defenders.

[wolf stansson]

I’m so mad about the location for this game that I’m just tired of hearing about it. This is so stupid

[wolf stansson]

I will die if Weston scores in the stupid mask

 

 

 

Nm he just did still alive. This was not a bit