Minor League Musings

[Regular Show]

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Another video with a better perspective from behind the pitcher. The resolution isn't great, but you can see how his pitches move and how he attacks hitters. The opposing hitter (Hunter Dozier) was a top prospect for KC and is playing on the big league team. He isn't some no-name scrub.

 

I think his curveball is his best pitch and he starts off the AB with a good one for a strike. Throws a fastball on his second pitch. It's only 93 mph according to the broadcast, but his fastball has decent movement and I've seen him throw some good elevated fastballs with plus movement. Alzolay then breaks out a changeup that just misses. Good arm speed on the changeup. I think this could develop into a good weapon in time. I've seen him throw some crappy changeups too.

 

Now, comes the best part -- he throws a beautiful curveball right off the plate that dives down to get the K. It comes at the 58 second mark in the video. I don't know if this is a grade 60 (+) or a grade 70 (++) CB, but it seems very impressive to me. I think he could get Baez and some of the other Cubs hitters out with that sick curveball. I think it's either Alzolay or Lange for the title of Best Curveball in the Cubs system.

 

So, I've watched him plenty of times now. He doesn't have the best stuff among our pitching prospects (I guess that's Dillon Maples), but the combination of command, good delivery, outstanding makeup, solid fastball and a good-to-great curveball makes him the best pitching prospect in the system IMO.

[davell]

Did I miss something? Alzolay had a lat injury and that was it, to my knowledge.

[Regular Show]

Did I miss something? Alzolay had a lat injury and that was it, to my knowledge.

 

Yeah, what is he talking about? He hurt his arm and has to rehab? What?

 

I'm pretty sure he's fully healthy now.

[CubsWin]

Did I miss something? Alzolay had a lat injury and that was it, to my knowledge.

 

Yeah, what is he talking about? He hurt his arm and has to rehab? What?

 

I'm pretty sure he's fully healthy now.

The only mention of this injury to Alzolay has ever been a lat strain. This spring he did injure his ankle which got him off to a delayed start in Iowa.

 

For those interested in why Adbert is highly thought of, here's an excellent rundown of Alzolay's stuff with plenty of video from Cubs blogger Michael Ernst.

 

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2018/09/end-of-season-prospect-review-adbert-alzolay/

[davell]

 

 

 

Solid thread. Read thru the entirety of his thoughts.

[Regular Show]

I like Adbert Alzolay even more now. Pretty awesome tweet and I'm glad he has a lot of fans.

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

 

Damn, pretty good scouting report from 13-year old Johnny in that fan letter:

 

"I got to see you play a couple times in Myrtle Beach and you have become one of my favorite players. I really like the way you pitch. I really like your curveball that you throw. You have really good stuff..."

 

 

EDIT: I just want to make clear I'm not being sarcastic here. That's legitimately impressive.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

No Cubs in the BA PCL or SL Top 20 prospects. Some Cubs guys in the SL chat:

 

Tim (Albany): What is the upside of Zack Short?

 

Matt Eddy: Tennessee SS Zack Short ranks as the best defensive SS in the SL and had one of the strongest infield arms. He also clubbed 17 HR and drew 82 walks. I expected those attributes to play better with managers and scouts, but they uniformly expressed skepticism that Short's straight uphill swing plane would play against better pitchers. Still, he has attributes that could make him a utility type of infielder.

 

Navin (Pasadena, CA): Were any Cubs close to the top 20? I’d imagine Zack Short, Trent Giambrone and Keegan Thompson were the best regarded Smokies last year.

 

Matt Eddy: Short was the clubhouse leader. The other Smokies to receive notice were 3B Jason Vosler (who was repeating the league) and 23-year-old Cuban OF Eddy Martinez. Martinez did not produce results, obviously, but managers liked his bat speed, body and hitting actions.

[Regular Show]

No Cubs in the BA PCL or SL Top 20 prospects. Some Cubs guys in the SL chat:

 

Tim (Albany): What is the upside of Zack Short?

 

Matt Eddy: Tennessee SS Zack Short ranks as the best defensive SS in the SL and had one of the strongest infield arms. He also clubbed 17 HR and drew 82 walks. I expected those attributes to play better with managers and scouts, but they uniformly expressed skepticism that Short's straight uphill swing plane would play against better pitchers. Still, he has attributes that could make him a utility type of infielder.

 

Navin (Pasadena, CA): Were any Cubs close to the top 20? I’d imagine Zack Short, Trent Giambrone and Keegan Thompson were the best regarded Smokies last year.

 

Matt Eddy: Short was the clubhouse leader. The other Smokies to receive notice were 3B Jason Vosler (who was repeating the league) and 23-year-old Cuban OF Eddy Martinez. Martinez did not produce results, obviously, but managers liked his bat speed, body and hitting actions.

 

Well, that is really disappointing information. Have we even discussed EJM this year in the minor league musings thread?

[Regular Show]

How much...better(?)...is missing most of the season to a lat injury rather an arm injury? Swap out lat for arm in that post snd what else changes?

 

Hey Tom,

 

[davell]

How much...better(?)...is missing most of the season to a lat injury rather an arm injury? Swap out lat for arm in that post snd what else changes? And the rehab thing - this injury just got better between June and now with some good old fashioned r&r? Pulling teeth sometimes, guys!

 

—

 

I have some optimism for Martinez for 2019+ because:

 

- he puts the ball in the air

- he makes contact

- he draws some walks

- he has hit for some power

- he does all this despite not playing much competitive ball from 18-21

- Iowa and the juiced ball MLB may allow that mix to play up

 

Can run a little, spot in CF, well built but maybe a little stiff defensively

 

—

 

Nice to see some positive words on Short, who will join Martinez in Iowa as another flyball hitter with a workable approach.

 

Not trying to start an argument here, but you harp on arm injuries with guys quite a bit. So, there should be quite a bit of difference in those injuries, to you, more than most.

[Cubswin11]

I feel like EJM is the type of guy the scouts in Moneyball like because he looks good with a shirt off or whatever but he can't actually hit.

 

 

Short seems to be a little bit like Paul Dejong, there's a better track record of walks but everything else looks about the sameish. I still prefer we trade him sooner than later before the K problems likely catch up to him and let someone else dream on him/think they can fix it.

[davell]

Tom, you site healthy arm history quite a bit. I'm not going to go look up past posts, but its been said often by you. (Yes, OFTEN can be a term we disagree on though too) Nevertheless, you've mentioned it enough to where it definitely got my attention, when you kind of said that lat or arm didn't really change things.

 

Honestly, to me, a TJS isn't that big of a deal. Unless the dude has some weird delivery or something. But, I brought it up in this case, because 1) You were wrong on the type of injury and 2) You have cited healthy arm as being very important in the past. So I figured that the fact it wasn't an arm injury would actually have made you feel a bit better on him.

 

That said, I don't THINK you've ever been very high on him to begin with, but maybe I'm wrong.

[weis21]

NSBB minor league forum beef is the best

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

NSBB minor league forum beef is the best

I also enjoyed that it was happening while life-questioning events were going on in an actual major league game during a playoff race.

[davell]

Let it be known I'm not the one posting about this stupid horsefeathers during the middle of a Cubs game.

 

Tom, I legitimately TRIED to be helpful just now. Wasn't being shitty, wasn't trying to start anything. I simply posted that you made a mistake. Which you did. I could go further now and say that not knowing what type of an injury the guy has, literally invalidates any other thoughts you may have on the matter, because why would anyone take what else you have to say seriously, on that subject?

 

As for my original thought process..... I honestly thought I might be putting your mind at ease by you mistaking it. Because you have cited having a healthy arm numerous times, in talking up multiple draft guys like Kumar Rocker, guys in our system like Ryan Kellogg, and guys you've advocated trading for like Marcus Stroman, Rick Porcello, Julio Teheran, and I'm leaving plenty out, on all fronts. These are memorable, due to how often you shoved them down everyone's throats. Oh, and Aroldis Chapman. As a starter.

 

I figured that because you HAVE constantly brought it up before, that knowing Alzolay didn't have an arm injury would have just resulted in you basically saying, "oh cool", not turn this into your typical horsefeathers.

 

Tried being cordial, got a typical shitty response, done conversing now.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

search.php?keywords=%22healthy+arm%22&terms=all&author=TomtheBombadil&sc=1&sf=all&sr=posts&sk=t&sd=d&st=0&ch=300&t=0&submit=Search

[Regular Show]

http://www.northsidebaseball.com/forum/search.php?keywords=%22healthy+arm%22&terms=all&author=TomtheBombadil&sc=1&sf=all&sr=posts&sk=t&sd=d&st=0&ch=300&t=0&submit=Search

 

Damn, I wished I thought of this. Well played Duke... well played.

 

You should have started with this:

 

 

Then end it like this:

 

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Tried being cordial, got a typical horsefeathers response, done conversing now.

 

There appears to be some confusion here about the definition of cordial. Not answering a straight question with a straight answer is pretty rude. Doing it because no one but myself cares that you intentionally warped my words for your own purposes would also not be considered cordial.

[Regular Show]

Tried being cordial, got a typical horsefeathers response, done conversing now.

 

There appears to be some confusion here about the definition of cordial. Not answering a straight question with a straight answer is pretty rude. It’s the only reason we are at this point. Doing it because no one but myself cares that you intentionally warped my words for your own purposes would also not be considered cordial.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

No Cubs in the Carolina League Top 20:

 

Cubs (Internet):

 

What went wrong with Aramis Ademan's season? Certainly he was ranked highly in the system due to it being a weak system, but this has to be a step back for him, right?

 

J.J. Cooper: Ademan's season derailed quickly. He just looked overmatched all season to the point where scouts who were getting their first look at him asked why he was so highly regarded coming into the season. That said, a lot of it seemed to revolve around him being physically overwhelmed by the speed of the game in a bigger, stronger, faster league. He seemed to be worn out not all that long into the season and it didn't get better. There are still some tools there and the feel/understanding of the game is OK, he just has to get stronger.

 

Malik (Brooklyn):

 

Alex Lange or Cory Abbott going forward? I have to admit that Abbott surprised me quite a bit this season.

 

J.J. Cooper: Can make the argument for Abbott, which surprises me too. Abbot has a fastball/slider combination that could be pretty solid coming out of the pen. It was harder to find pro scouts who were enamored with Lange. Pro scouts aren't giving him credit for what he did in college. They are watching what he is now and what he often is now is a pitcher throwing a below-average fastball with a reliever's delivery as a starter. If he can find 3-4 mph that was often missing this year, he may project as a reliever, but I had multiple reports that he was sitting 88-90 this year. His secondary stuff, delivery and command aren't good enough to make up for a 40 fastball.

 

Cubs Fan (NC):

 

Bailey Clark was solid in a long relief role until he got hurt...and then finished strong and is headed to AZ fall league. Does he look better as a starter/long reliever...or would the FB/Slider combo be worth a shot as a closer type?

 

J.J. Cooper: I thought he was a reliever going back to his days at Duke. Nothing has really changed since then on that assessment from my reporting/what I've seen. He's a potentially useful reliever, but as you noted, health is a key part of being a successful pitcher.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Miguel Amaya made the BA top 20 MWL prospects at 12. He’s the first Cub to make a league list so far (they’ve gone through the PCL, SL and CL too so far):

 

12 Miguel Amaya South Bend (Cubs) C

Age: 19. B-T: R-R. HT: 6-1. WT: 185. Signed: Panama, 2015.

 

This was a very good year for catchers in the Midwest League. Between Hernandez, Amaya, Ryan Jeffers, Hendrik Clementina and Luis Campusano, the league was full of intriguing young catchers. Amaya was among the most interesting.

 

Amaya took a big step forward this year with his power, as he hit nine home runs and slugged .500 in the first half of the season before wearing down in the second half. Amaya does chase out of the strike zone too often and needs to improve his ability to recognize breaking balls, but he has future average or even above-average power.

 

Defensively, Amaya has an above-average arm, is a calm receiver who has a chance to be at least an average defender. Considering his age and tools, he has a chance to be the rare catcher who contributes both offensively and defensively.

 

2018 Stats

.256/.349/.403

414 AB, 12 HR, 52 RBI, 50 BB, 91 SO

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Amaya ends the season as the 87th ranked prospect by MLB.com.

[Hrubes20]

Amaya ends the season as the 87th ranked prospect by MLB.com.

 

Definitely will take that, even if there isn't much separating the 75th prospect from the 125th.

[Regular Show]

Amaya ends the season as the 87th ranked prospect by MLB.com.

 

Definitely will take that, even if there isn't much separating the 75th prospect from the 125th.

 

So I just discovered some MLB teams make a composite of different prospect rankings (BA, MLB.com, Fangraphs, etc.) they place alongside their own evaluations/rankings.

 

So this always helps when someone gets ranked on these lists.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

NWL Top 20 Prospects:

 

3. Brailyn Márquez, LHP - Brailyn was only behind Joey Bart and Hans Crouse and ahead of prospects like Xavier Edwards and Julio Pablo Martínez.

8. Nelson Velázquez, OF

 

Brailyn Marquez

Eugene (Cubs)

RHP

Notes:

Age: 19. B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-4. Wt: 185.

Signed: Dominican Republic, 2015.

 

After two seasons at the Cubs’ minor league complex in Arizona, Marquez graduated to the Northwest League in 2018. Before moving to low Class A South Bend late in the summer, Marquez showed all the ingredients necessary to make evaluators believe he has a future in a major league rotation.

 

The first thing that jumps out about Marquez is his fastball, which regularly parks in the mid-90s and touched as high as 98 mph this summer. His best secondary pitch is a mid-80s breaking ball, which seems to vacillate between a slider and a curveball. It is an above-average pitch now and could be plus in the future with further repetition and refinement. His 86-91 mph changeup is presently a little behind. It has plenty of movement but often has less separation than most changeups.

 

Marquez needs to work on repeating his delivery, but his ceiling is as high as any pitcher in the Cubs’ system.

 

2018 Stats

1-4, 3.21 ERA

48 IP, 46 H, 14 BB, 52 SO

 

Nelson Velazquez

Eugene (Cubs)

OF

Notes:

Age: 19. B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-0. Wt: 190.

Drafted: HS—Puerto Rico, 2017 (5).

 

 

Velazquez’s calling card is his power, stemming both from his bat and his arm. His 11 home runs made him one of six players in the NWL with double-digit home runs, just four behind league-leader Curtis Terry. He generates his power brute strength and well above-average bat speed. Velazquez has a double-plus arm. He grades as an average defender in the corners and has enough athleticism to play center field in a pinch. The key going forward will be his hit tool. Scouts see a poor approach with a lack of awareness about the way he will be pitched and the types of pitches he’s equipped to handle.

 

2018 Stats

.250/.322/.458

264 AB, 11 HR, 33 RBI, 23 BB, 81 SO