Today's wish list...

[nilodnayr]

The only other variable with this is that Coghlan complained last year about how he thought he was playing well enough to be a starter (which, in his defense, he was). Joe/Theo would have to convince him to buy into that role.

 

I certainly wouldn't consider what happened last year as "complaining". Dude was asked by a reporter if he thought he should be a starter down the stretch/in the playoffs. Cogs was confident in himself and he was coming off a season where he was hitting 3rd and picked up an infielders glove for the first time in years. He was a useful, team player and he really only said, "yeah, I think I should be in the lineup".

 

I think a Coghlan for Dyson swap would make lots of sense (even if we'd have to sweeten it a bit). While not right handed, Dyson is a super stud defensively and can sub in at all 3 positions (he's actually matched Kiermaier in UZR/150 in CF). KC needs pop with Gordon and Zobrist gone and already has a stud CF, although as of now Dyson is ticketed as one of their starting corner OFs. Dyson can be a late inning defensive replacement/insurance if Heyward in CF doesn't work/workable short term starting CF if they get a deal they can't refuse for Soler.

[davell]

Is it too much to ask for Moore and McGee, without using Javy or Soler? Send Coghlan, plus non-Contreras guys from the system. I think that'd be about the best possible move left for us, if we do anything.

[Post Count Padder]

Is it too much to ask for Moore and McGee, without using Javy or Soler? Send Coghlan, plus non-Contreras guys from the system. I think that'd be about the best possible move left for us, if we do anything.

I would like that very much, though not sure how feasible it is. Rays are believed to like Villanueva and Vogelbach, though not sure exactly how much. Maybe those two, Coghlan and someone like Blackburn/Sands/Steele/Williams?

[davell]

Is it too much to ask for Moore and McGee, without using Javy or Soler? Send Coghlan, plus non-Contreras guys from the system. I think that'd be about the best possible move left for us, if we do anything.

I would like that very much, though not sure how feasible it is. Rays are believed to like Villanueva and Vogelbach, though not sure exactly how much. Maybe those two, Coghlan and someone like Blackburn/Sands/Steele/Williams?

 

It'd have to hurt more than that, I'd think. I'm not convinced Villanueva has value, due to him being out of options. I do think Vogelbach has a bit more value than what we typically think on here. But he's a 4th piece. After seeing what relievers are bringing in trade, I'd think Underwood would probably have to be put into the spot you've got the list of 4 pitchers. Even then, I'd wonder if Happ needs to be put into Villanueva's spot. I've got no idea how to value Moore at this point.

 

But I keep coming back to that snippet too, that they're interested in Villanueva/Szczur/Vogelbach. If that grouping nets us ANYTHING, count me as happy.

[toonsterwu]

Is it too much to ask for Moore and McGee, without using Javy or Soler? Send Coghlan, plus non-Contreras guys from the system. I think that'd be about the best possible move left for us, if we do anything.

I would like that very much, though not sure how feasible it is. Rays are believed to like Villanueva and Vogelbach, though not sure exactly how much. Maybe those two, Coghlan and someone like Blackburn/Sands/Steele/Williams?

 

It'd have to hurt more than that, I'd think. I'm not convinced Villanueva has value, due to him being out of options. I do think Vogelbach has a bit more value than what we typically think on here. But he's a 4th piece. After seeing what relievers are bringing in trade, I'd think Underwood would probably have to be put into the spot you've got the list of 4 pitchers. Even then, I'd wonder if Happ needs to be put into Villanueva's spot. I've got no idea how to value Moore at this point.

 

But I keep coming back to that snippet too, that they're interested in Villanueva/Szczur/Vogelbach. If that grouping nets us ANYTHING, count me as happy.

 

If it's anything even closely remote to that, (that is, using any of the above mentioned names) the Cubs would HAVE to do a deal. I mean ... let's face it, Villanueva/Vogelbach/Szczur ... these guys are filler/depth at this point, giving up Coghlan for an improvement elsewhere is something you do, and well, Blackburn/Steele/Sands/Williams are all far away, and realistically, maybe only Steele/Sands have intriguing ceilings (and even that, if we're being honest, is somewhat debatable, although Steele's ceiling does seem plenty strong). I'd hate to give up one of Steele/Sands (and considering Tampa's track record in identifying pitchers and developing them, I'd be antsy that they took the "right" one), but giving up one of those to make a stronger run now ... okay. (and since I missed that report of their interest in the V boys, can someone tell me why? They have guys at the same "track" as those two that, arguably, project better (Richie Shaffer and Casey Gillaspie).

 

I tend to think McGee alone would cost more than 2-3 of those above names. If they are really interested in some sort of McGee and X deal, considering Adames struggles last year offensively, and Robertson may be better off at 2nd, I could see them perhaps ask for Gleyber Torres to try and complete a deal involving McGee and x (although with Adrian Rondon in the wings, they may decide against it). Tampa being Tampa, I could also see them go the route of loading up on younger talent, maybe 2 of our higher ceiling, low level arms, and maybe an upper level positional asset. Dunno, there definitely seem to be fits, particularly with an organization like Tampa Bay that may be willing to take a longer term view of things (as compared with the Indians wanting immediate help).

 

Honestly, if we're pursuing a pen arm in a trade, I'm still curious what Washington does with Drew Storen.

[Guest]

Given that Milwaukee is somewhat actively tanking, I'm still interested in what it would take to get Will Smith.

[davell]

I'd like Smith too. My honest guess is a deal for him or McGee definitely has a top 100 guy in it, unless Tampa really values Coghlan for some reason.

[toonsterwu]

OOC, since I've been busy, were there reports that Tampa had interest in Coghlan? Because, on paper, it seems ... odd. Kiermaier/Souza Jr. seem likely to get regular AB's in the OF, and they have enough guys to piece together a platoon for LF (something like Guyer/Morrison would seem like a capable OF platoon). Or, if they feel like Mahtook turned a corner, they could perhaps run him out there on a regular basis. There's still Desmond Jennings if he's not moved.

 

All in all, don't really see the Coghlan fit (doesn't seem like he'd be utilized in a super-util role), and I'm more inclined to think any move they make is with an eye on the future ... or an eye on big time impact now.

 

Would love Will Smith, but I figure that would be costly, since he could be in line to close, has a couple more arb controlled years, and is a division rival.

[Guest]

After thinking about it a bit, I have to say that I'm pretty comfortable with the pen we have right now. Rondon/Strop/Grimm is pretty solid to close out games. Cahill and Wood both excelled in relief roles last year. If healthy, Ramirez has the talent to fit into the high leverage part of the pen. Brothers is high ceiling if his control problems can be fixed. Then there's a bunch of depth beyond that. It's still possible for the pen to blow up, but I'm pretty happy with where it's at right now.

 

I think I'd rather take the money it would take to add McGee and invest it into the IFA market.

[davell]

The latest stuff on Sierra doesn't sound promising. No good offers in hand, lots of worries he's a two pitch guy that can't start.....If he's cheap enough, I'd love to take that chance though. Reminds me of the same concerns with Iglesias basically.

 

I think the top notch pen arm is my top priority, if for no other reason than I see us spending on IFA's no matter what. If it IS an either/or situation, I'd take the IFA's though.

[Guest]

The latest stuff on Sierra doesn't sound promising. No good offers in hand, lots of worries he's a two pitch guy that can't start.....If he's cheap enough, I'd love to take that chance though. Reminds me of the same concerns with Iglesias basically.

 

I think the top notch pen arm is my top priority, if for no other reason than I see us spending on IFA's no matter what. If it IS an either/or situation, I'd take the IFA's though.

Yeah, I'm a bit disappointed in the reports. I'm hoping that means we can get him for less than anticipated, but it probably means that it makes more sense for a tanking team to sign him and try him as a starter.

 

I guess I feel like even if we have money for both at this point, I'd rather invest it all in the IFA. It's going to be tough to get impact talent in the draft after losing two picks and we're going to be limited in our IFA spending the next couple years. I feel like we have a pretty excellent pen already. I certainly wouldn't complain about continuing to add there, but my pick would be to add depth to the farm. That depth could always be flipped and used to add to the pen if needed.

[Northsider]

Seems to me, since the Heyward/Zobrist signings everyone has been looking at the Cubs to try and make a trade for 3.5+ WAR starting pitching or an ace reliever without giving up Soler or Baez; needless to say, the cost of pitchers in trade this offseason has been well beyond questionable. So my wishlist for the rest of the offseason includes Tim Lincecum and Chad Billingsley.

 

Both have talent, both have injury issues, and both would likely benefit from a year (or two, in Billingsley's case) in which they can ease themselves back into starting roles. A pitching coach like Bosio can't hurt, either.

 

For Billingsley, I'd offer 3 years, with an expected progression from minors+bullpen to bullpen to starter. I'd imagine incentives could help.

 

For Lincecum, a 2-year deal that focuses on Bullpen->Starter could work, maybe with a mutual 3rd year. Lincecum may want more guaranteed money than incentives, though.

 

Perhaps in both cases offer opt-outs (or mandatory trades) if they don't make the rotation in the final year, or something along those lines. Both pitchers gain access to healing time, with an in-contract plan to get back to starting and access to a top pitching coach.

 

The Lincecum deal would give the Cubs the possibility of an elite reliever in the first year, and a backup plan for Hammel in the second.

 

The Billingsley deal would give the Cubs the possibility of an elite reliever in the second year (the first year is spectacularly unlikely given recent performance), and a backup plan for Lackey in the third.

 

Thoughts?

[Guest]

Seems to me, since the Heyward/Zobrist signings everyone has been looking at the Cubs to try and make a trade for 3.5+ WAR starting pitching or an ace reliever without giving up Soler or Baez; needless to say, the cost of pitchers in trade this offseason has been well beyond questionable. So my wishlist for the rest of the offseason includes Tim Lincecum and Chad Billingsley.

 

Both have talent, both have injury issues, and both would likely benefit from a year (or two, in Billingsley's case) in which they can ease themselves back into starting roles. A pitching coach like Bosio can't hurt, either.

 

For Billingsley, I'd offer 3 years, with an expected progression from minors+bullpen to bullpen to starter. I'd imagine incentives could help.

 

For Lincecum, a 2-year deal that focuses on Bullpen->Starter could work, maybe with a mutual 3rd year. Lincecum may want more guaranteed money than incentives, though.

 

Perhaps in both cases offer opt-outs (or mandatory trades) if they don't make the rotation in the final year, or something along those lines. Both pitchers gain access to healing time, with an in-contract plan to get back to starting and access to a top pitching coach.

 

The Lincecum deal would give the Cubs the possibility of an elite reliever in the first year, and a backup plan for Hammel in the second.

 

The Billingsley deal would give the Cubs the possibility of an elite reliever in the second year (the first year is spectacularly unlikely given recent performance), and a backup plan for Lackey in the third.

 

Thoughts?

I'm a pretty solid "no" on each guy. I'm pretty sure the best days are long behind each one. Even if you put Lincecum/Billingsley in the pen, you're kicking a better current pitcher off the roster. I'd be more interested in Cliff Lee, who at least pitched well the last time he pitched. He's more likely to be either effective or taking up DL space.

 

But I'd still rather invest in Ruiz, Sierra and other guys who are likely to be better bets at this point, as well as easier to stash in the minors without kicking useful players off the roster.

[davell]

Its out of the box. To me, its awfully excessive for a rehabbing pitcher(that's not TJS). Most likely would have to show either some real money too, in order to get them to go longer than a year.

 

I'd be fine with either, on a one year deal. Although, I'd prefer Masterson. Maybe Mike Minor as well.

[Guest]

What's the hold up with Norge Ruiz? He's the one I want them to sign the most anyway.

Well, I want them all, but I'd put Sierra, Gutierrez and Morejon above Ruiz. Unless there's new reports out there, it sounds like Ruiz's stuff has dipped enough to be worried about an injury with him. I think Sierra has the best present stuff and simply needs the refinement he'd find here in the states. I like the ceilings for Gutierrez and Morejon more than either guys, based on what I've read.

[davell]

You sure you're not getting Gutierrez and Ruiz confused?

[Guest]

From Badler:

 

Scouts noticed a physical difference in Ruiz, who appears to have added around 25 pounds and is now closer to 5-foot-10, 195 pounds. He’s a good athlete who throws strikes, mixes his pitches liberally and has solid stuff across the board. On Monday, his fastball operated at 89-92 mph, though there was concern among some scouts that he didn’t have the same explosive finish to his stuff that he had in the past, though his changeup was still a lively, above-average pitch. Ruiz’s stuff did look flat in the Caribbean Series in February, and he did struggle in the second half of the 2014-15 season in Serie Nacional, posting a 4.53 ERA with 36 strikeouts and 25 walks in 45 2/3 innings after the break. Some scouts are concerned that might be a trend, especially with their durability concerns due to his size and the way his mechanics work, but he has shown midrotation starter potential when he’s at his best and should have plenty more opportunities to show teams what he has over the next couple of months pitching in the Dominican Republic, including another showcase game on Saturday.

[davell]

That's something, but I think I'd still put him highest on my IFA wish list(for pitchers). Basically, the most recent report on each of these guys(excluding Morejon) has gone backward a bit. (Thanks for posting that Tim)

[Cubswin11]

The Angels need a LF and it sounds like they prefer it to be a left-handed bat. They also don't want to go over the luxury tax threshold which means they can't add much more than ~$4 million in salary. I don't really love the fit Coghlan has on the team going forward, can't play CF and is probably questionable in RF and being LH he's kinda redundant. I wonder how much more it would take than Coghlan to get either Nicholas Tropeano or Tyler Skaggs + Fernando Salas or Joe Smith? Tropeano/Skaggs are buried on their SP depth chart (not that they wouldn't be buried on ours to begin with but fit the young/controllable guy we are seeking and also both have options to start in AAA I believe) and are said to be available for a bat and Salas or Smith are guys they are looking to move for a little salary relief/could negate a good chunk of Coghlan's salary, keeping them under any tax. Obviously this creates a bit of a 4th OF hole for us and after the trade I'd like to see us bring Jackson back for that role as what he offers I feel like fits the roster construction better than Coghlan.

[Guest]

The Angels need a LF and it sounds like they prefer it to be a left-handed bat. They also don't want to go over the luxury tax threshold which means they can't add much more than ~$4 million in salary. I don't really love the fit Coghlan has on the team going forward, can't play CF and is probably questionable in RF and being LH he's kinda redundant. I wonder how much more it would take than Coghlan to get either Nicholas Tropeano or Tyler Skaggs + Fernando Salas or Joe Smith? Tropeano/Skaggs are buried on their SP depth chart (not that they wouldn't be buried on ours to begin with but fit the young/controllable guy we are seeking and also both have options to start in AAA I believe) and are said to be available for a bat and Salas or Smith are guys they are looking to move for a little salary relief/could negate a good chunk of Coghlan's salary, keeping them under any tax. Obviously this creates a bit of a 4th OF hole for us and after the trade I'd like to see us bring Jackson back for that role as what he offers I feel like fits the roster construction better than Coghlan.

This is an interesting target for Coghlan. I really like this idea.

[Cubswin11]

Here's the full article talking about the Angels which I got my idea from, which came from a MLBTR blurb. Would Coghlan/Villanueva/PJ for Skaggs/Tropeano and Salas/Smith be fair? Too much? Too little?

 

http://m.angels.mlb.com/news/article/160430500/angels-could-still-have-moves-in-store-for-16

[Guest]

Coghlan for Skaggs is an interesting value swap, but having a quality 4th OF means more to me than having a good 8th starter. I don't think you're getting a worthwhile 4th OF in free agency, so unless there's another deal already in the works to address it, I'd rather not get rid of Coghlan.

[Cubswin11]

Coghlan for Skaggs is an interesting value swap, but having a quality 4th OF means more to me than having a good 8th starter. I don't think you're getting a worthwhile 4th OF in free agency, so unless there's another deal already in the works to address it, I'd rather not get rid of Coghlan.

I would agree. But that's why I said the next move would be to bring in Jackson as the back up/4th OF. With the redundancies/shortcomings Coghlan has on the fit with the team right now I think we should try and maximize his value on what he's done here the past year and get a piece(s) that could more easily help/fit both this year and long term and bring in a guy (Jackson) that fits the team construction better.

[Guest]

Coghlan for Skaggs is an interesting value swap, but having a quality 4th OF means more to me than having a good 8th starter. I don't think you're getting a worthwhile 4th OF in free agency, so unless there's another deal already in the works to address it, I'd rather not get rid of Coghlan.

Considering you've got capable OF's in Zobrist and Bryant (and capable infielders in Baez and La Stella to plug in), I don't think it is as much an issue for the Cubs as for other teams. You've also got Almora & McKinney knocking at the door in the second half. Overall, I think it is an opportunity to further our pitching depth for not only this year, but next year as well.

[Guest]

Coghlan for Skaggs is an interesting value swap, but having a quality 4th OF means more to me than having a good 8th starter. I don't think you're getting a worthwhile 4th OF in free agency, so unless there's another deal already in the works to address it, I'd rather not get rid of Coghlan.

I would agree. But that's why I said the next move would be to bring in Jackson as the back up/4th OF. With the redundancies/shortcomings Coghlan has on the fit with the team right now I think we should try and maximize his value on what he's done here the past year and get a piece(s) that could more easily help/fit both this year and long term and bring in a guy (Jackson) that fits the team construction better.

 

I don't think it's realistic to expect to sign Jackson or someone of his caliber to be a 4th OF, they're going to want playing time that the Cubs cannot provide. That's part of why I'd be all about putting a package together for Desmond Jennings if you want a 4th OF with CF capabilities. I also have my doubts that the Cubs have the financial breathing room to sign someone in the Jackson tier, but that's secondary to the fact that the Jacksons and Parras of the world are going to want to play every day.

 

Considering you've got capable OF's in Zobrist and Bryant (and capable infielders in Baez and La Stella to plug in), I don't think it is as much an issue for the Cubs as for other teams. You've also got Almora & McKinney knocking at the door in the second half. Overall, I think it is an opportunity to further our pitching depth for not only this year, but next year as well.

 

Other teams probably have a little more certainty in their corner OFs too. I agree that a Coghlanless world is not a crisis, but I don't think an optionable pitcher(even one with some pedigree like Skaggs) is a big enough prize to downgrade the bench in that way.