BA's 2015 AZL Top 20 Prospects

[CaliforniaRaisin]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2015-arizona-league-top-20-prospects/

 

Dylan Cease comes in at #2.

 

2. Dylan Cease, rhp, Cubs

 

Age: 19. B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 175. Drafted: HS—Milton, Ga., 2014 (6). Video

 

A preseason high school All-American in 2014, Cease projected as a first-round pick before an elbow injury in March of his senior year prematurely ended his scholastic career. The Cubs drafted him in the sixth round and signed him for $1.5 million to keep him from attending Vanderbilt. Cease made a relatively quick recovery from his July 2014 Tommy John surgery, flashing high-90s velocity in extended spring training games just 10 months after surgery.

 

While Cease’s command isn’t completely back, he clearly possessed some of the best stuff in the AZL. His fastball consistently sat 95-96 mph and touched 99. His secondary pitches are still inconsistent, with his low-80s curveball with three-quarters break an average pitch that plays up because of the fastball velocity. He gets enough spin on his breaking ball to project a better grade for the pitch. He doesn’t yet use his fringy changeup much, but the arm speed is there and the low-80s offering also plays up because of his fastball.

 

Some evaluators are concerned with Cease’s delivery, and whether the use of his lower half will allow him to stay in the rotation without making adjustments.

 

“He has a great arm and a great future. He’s a great worker and a student of the game,” Cubs pitching coach Ron Villone said. “The sky’s the limit next year.”

[Guest]

From the chat:

 

Mike (Chicago): Did any other Cubs come close to making the list?

 

Bill Mitchell: Scouts liked what they saw from 4th round CF D.J. Wilson, with a few Adam Eaton comps thrown his way. Wladimir Galindo played third base early in the season for the AZL Cubs and impressed with his bat before getting hurt, but his defense at the hot corner is rough and he'll likely have to move to 1B or LF. 3rd round pick Bryan Hudson is a very tall (6-8), projectable LHP who impressed in his few brief outings.

[CubsWin]

Nice. The Cubs effectively took their 6th round pick in 2014 and traded it for a 1st rounder this year. Now he just needs to stay healthy. I like how patient the Cubs have been with their young arms. As a prospect-o-phile, I get itchy to see what these guys can do at the upper levels, but it's the right thing to do to have the prep pitchers go one level at a time, spending their first partial season in Mesa and their first full season in Short Season A. Keep their innings low and those returning from TJS even lower.

 

For that reason, even though Villone said "sky's the limit next year" for Cease, I wonder if he starts next year in extended spring training, then on to Eugene and, if his performance is good enough, spend the 2nd half in South Bend once the weather's good and warm and college arms like Ryan Kellogg or Preston Morrison move on to Myrtle Beach. If fellow TJS rehabber Erling Moreno's healthy perhaps he starts in Mesa and, if he dominates, moves to Eugene to finish the season.

 

The pitching's coming...

 

Johnson and Williams in Iowa

Underwood, Tseng, Markey, Blackburn, Skulina, etc. in Tennessee

Clifton, Stinnett, Null, Leal and possibly Norwood in Myrtle Beach

De La Cruz, Steele, Sands, Kellogg, Paulino, Alzolay, and eventually Cease in South Bend.

 

#waves

Edited September 22, 2015 by CubsWin

[CubsWin]

PERSONALLY, I wouldn't have him #2 on this list. Bickford and Orimoloye would be guys I put over him easily.

Certainly fair. It's all about projection at this level. I'm sure lists will vary widely especially between the top 5-10 guys. I'm happy to hear some scouts value Cease highly enough to place him 2nd. At this stage, it's still very much "we'll see..."

[toonsterwu]

Don't know why I never thought of it, considering the Vanderbilt connection and all, but Cease comps fairly well to a young Carson Fulmer. Let's hope he turns out as well as Fulmer did.

 

CubsWin, I like the positive attitude. Still feels like too few high upside guys, with most of them in the low levels. If those youngsters develop and move up the ladder and stay intriguing ... then I'll be excited. Heck, much as I like Underwood, he's still a question mark laced with upside.

[CubsWin]

Don't know why I never thought of it, considering the Vanderbilt connection and all, but Cease comps fairly well to a young Carson Fulmer. Let's hope he turns out as well as Fulmer did.

 

CubsWin, I like the positive attitude. Still feels like too few high upside guys, with most of them in the low levels. If those youngsters develop and move up the ladder and stay intriguing ... then I'll be excited. Heck, much as I like Underwood, he's still a question mark laced with upside.

Very much agree, toonster. Not a lot of high upside guys at the moment. Certainly not saying all those I mentioned are worthy of getting excited about. It's more the depth that has me intrigued.

 

The only guys I see having upside right now are Edwards (I think he could still be given a shot at starter after acclimating in the pen for a year or two), Underwood, Cease and Clifton. After Edwards, only Underwood is close enough to being a finished product to get "excited" about, and he's at least 1.5 years away with development left to accomplish.

 

But the depth is good and, for the most part, quite young. And from that, someone might pop. Of Tseng, Steele, Sands, De La Rosa, Paulino and Norwood, none have a current ceiling above MOR, but they all have the talent, stuff, velocity and/or size to pop and surprise. But it's all wait and see. Skulina's velo started to return and he's got good size, but he's a very big question mark and much older than the other guys. He's likely a reliever at the big league level. Markey and Alzolay are likely ticketed for the bullpen due to lack of size. Stinnett? Who knows.

 

There are a lot of question marks, for sure. But the whole idea of the "draft pitchers in volume" approach was to make it a numbers game. Sacrifice the consolidation of talent and upside in one prospect to spread out the risk of injury/failure and hope someone pops. Get enough guys with a chance and the odds increase that someone will. I feel like this coming year will be the first year that that strategy will have a chance to produce some answers to all those question marks. That's what I find most exciting about this group.

[CubsWin]

Certainly fair. It's all about projection at this level. I'm sure lists will vary widely especially between the top 5-10 guys. I'm happy to hear some scouts value Cease highly enough to place him 2nd. At this stage, it's still very much "we'll see..."

 

A list at that level could vary wildly 1-20 to be honest. Don't want to come off as too pessimistic sounding about Cease. It's not easy to find a guy with his velocity and the potential to have above average to plus command of the four seam. Needs more innings and an offspeed or two to step up.

 

I think I'm more excited for the 2016 group of A ball arms than the definitely-the-right-direction 2015 group. Expecting relatively bigger system breakouts from Clifton in MB, Kellogg, and Steele next year. Twomey is another one that should do alright. Org depth is definitely way better than what it was and on the way up.

Yeah, it's the depth that the club has intentionally worked on building and we will finally have a chance to see if anyone emerges next year in a full season league from the 2014 draft.

 

Of the first draft wave (Johnson, Blackburn & Underwood), Underwood has emerged. From the 2nd group (Zastryzny, Skulina & Clifton), it was Clifton. The 3rd wave is a quite a bit deeper. 2014 brought in Stinnett, Sands, Steele, Cease, Norwood, Williams, Null & Markey. Williams has already popped from that group but his ceiling is BOR. This year will tell us a lot about those guys.

[craig]

The last two months of the Cubs season have highlighted the value both of mid/back rotation guys, and of high-end starters.

 

We've been using Haren; how many mid/back rotation guys wouldn't be much preferable? Same has largely gone for Hammel for the last month or so. Given our playoff roster, how much different might it not look to have Arrieta and Lester backed up by three mid-rotation guys who were fairly capable at that level?

 

For a team that can score runs, and has an excellent bullpen, you can win a lot of games getting solid but non-dominant 5-6 inning starts from your 3-4-5 guys.

 

We also see the value of having some top-end guys. Hammel was quite effective, very effective, as a mid-rotation starter for the first half. So, you can win a ton of games with mid-rotation guys who are doing OK. But, the margin isn't strong there. Not sure what's wrong for Hammel, but he's been quite bad for a while now. Hendricks is often good; but he doesn't have much margin to be off his game.

 

Would be nice to have two really good guys (Arrieta/Lester), a very strong #3, and then have some quality depth so that most of the time your 4/5 guys might perhaps be pitching at Hammel's first-half level, or hendricks's level from last year; but then to also have some other options if guys like that slump.

[toonsterwu]

Of all the arms likely headed to South Bend, the one that really intrigues/excites me is de la Cruz. Granted, we've had a lot of good fastball/breaking ball guys do well in shortseason, only to falter in full-season, but those are some impressive strikeout numbers that he's posted, the fastball/breaking ball combo sounds good, and it feels like he's only scratching the surface of what he could be. A big, strong frame by most accounts, and at last check, mechanically, doesn't seem to have huge issues. I don't recall any of Liria/Cruz/Paulino/Peralta/Rosario and others (naming Latin American arms that have come through the system in the last few years with some level of intrigue) sounding this intriguing at that level (Peralta and Paulino might've been close in terms of an intrigue factor).

 

We'll see, but that's a fascinating arm at that level, and he'll be what, 21, in full-season next year.

[CubsWin]

The last two months of the Cubs season have highlighted the value both of mid/back rotation guys, and of high-end starters.

 

We've been using Haren; how many mid/back rotation guys wouldn't be much preferable? Same has largely gone for Hammel for the last month or so. Given our playoff roster, how much different might it not look to have Arrieta and Lester backed up by three mid-rotation guys who were fairly capable at that level?

 

For a team that can score runs, and has an excellent bullpen, you can win a lot of games getting solid but non-dominant 5-6 inning starts from your 3-4-5 guys.

 

We also see the value of having some top-end guys. Hammel was quite effective, very effective, as a mid-rotation starter for the first half. So, you can win a ton of games with mid-rotation guys who are doing OK. But, the margin isn't strong there. Not sure what's wrong for Hammel, but he's been quite bad for a while now. Hendricks is often good; but he doesn't have much margin to be off his game.

 

Would be nice to have two really good guys (Arrieta/Lester), a very strong #3, and then have some quality depth so that most of the time your 4/5 guys might perhaps be pitching at Hammel's first-half level, or hendricks's level from last year; but then to also have some other options if guys like that slump.

Now that the Cubs have a bona fide ace in Arrieta and a very solid #2 in Lester, yes. That's why I'm excited about the depth even without a lot of high upside guys. I guess Theo and Jed were right in that a team can afford to buy an ace or two (and not have to try to draft and develop them) assuming the rest of the team is financially managed responsibly.

 

If the Cubs can sign an above average #3 this off season and Underwood or Edwards is effective enough to take over Hammel's spot in 2017 with Hendricks filling out the rotation, the Cubs will have a lot of young depth in the system ready to fill in. Johnson and Williams could perform those duties as early as the 2nd half of next year with one or two of Tseng, Markey, Blackburn, Skulina, etc. providing rotation and bullpen depth in 2017.

 

I think Hendricks has been good this year. Better than his traditional numbers suggest and just as good, if not better, and more sustainably so than his standout rookie season. I completely agree that he has a slim margin for error and that makes him prone for a blow up game which is exactly the opposite of what your team is asking (and what you aptly described) from a BOR pitcher. Just keep the team in the game with a solid 5-6 innings. Of his 30 starts this season (that's something that has value in and of itself), 11 of them have had him giving up 4 or more earned runs.

 

Yet, Fangraphs gives him a 3.38 xFIP and a WAR of 2.8. That's an improvement over the 3.92 xFIP he got in his 2.46 ERA rookie year. He's striking out 21.5% this season up from 14.6% last year while walking only 5.9% (well below league avg.) up from 4.7%. His BABIP has normalized after being 30 points below league average the year before, and he has given up the long ball twice as often this year but he's still better than average in that department as well. Even with the slim margin of error, if he keeps performing at this level, he's got be considered a solid #4 much less a 5 going forward, and at 25 years old, you'd expect to be this good or progress over the next few years. His Fangraph's xFIP ranks 21st among qualified starters and 32nd in WAR.

[CubsWin]

Of all the arms likely headed to South Bend, the one that really intrigues/excites me is de la Cruz. Granted, we've had a lot of good fastball/breaking ball guys do well in shortseason, only to falter in full-season, but those are some impressive strikeout numbers that he's posted, the fastball/breaking ball combo sounds good, and it feels like he's only scratching the surface of what he could be. A big, strong frame by most accounts, and at last check, mechanically, doesn't seem to have huge issues. I don't recall any of Liria/Cruz/Paulino/Peralta/Rosario and others (naming Latin American arms that have come through the system in the last few years with some level of intrigue) sounding this intriguing at that level (Peralta and Paulino might've been close in terms of an intrigue factor).

 

We'll see, but that's a fascinating arm at that level, and he'll be what, 21, in full-season next year.

Yeah, De La Rosa heads my list, too. Justin Steele has put up some pretty good numbers. Sands may be more of a late bloomer/guy who has to put it all together. I've read really good things about Alzolay's stuff, but size may move him to the pen. All of this comes with the same caveat you provided in that they're going to need a lot more than a good fastball in full season leagues. Paulino might be more raw, but as a lefty with good velocity, he'll have staying power and should get plenty of chances.