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they are built to be at the front end of their window to win. they still have three regulars on offense who haven't even reached 500 plate appearances. those players are likely to improve in the next 2-3 years whereas none of the regulars should decline much, with the possible exception of montero.

 

Can't agree, predictably. I think Russell's as good a bet as there can be to improve. Soler could go either way. Bryant is probably pretty close to as good as he's going to get, which is of course really darn good. Schwarber is coming, but I don't think you can expect him to be much better in 2016 than Coghlan has been this year.

 

Yes, it's easy to imagine scenarios where everyone hits their 65th percentile projections and we shoot up to 99-win territory. But I think there's a very real chance this team isn't any better next year than this. You are getting everything you could possibly ask for out of this pitching staff and then some, there is plenty of downside for 2016 there, probably equal to the upside in the offense.

 

If you want to take a big step forward next year, you need to hope that Soler and/or Russell takes a huge leap forward, or you need to hit on your offseason moves more or less across the board. Neither are guarantees or close to it.

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Posted
they are built to be at the front end of their window to win. they still have three regulars on offense who haven't even reached 500 plate appearances. those players are likely to improve in the next 2-3 years whereas none of the regulars should decline much, with the possible exception of montero.

 

Can't agree, predictably. I think Russell's as good a bet as there can be to improve. Soler could go either way. Bryant is probably pretty close to as good as he's going to get, which is of course really darn good. Schwarber is coming, but I don't think you can expect him to be much better in 2016 than Coghlan has been this year.

 

Yes, it's easy to imagine scenarios where everyone hits their 65th percentile projections and we shoot up to 99-win territory. But I think there's a very real chance this team isn't any better next year than this. You are getting everything you could possibly ask for out of this pitching staff and then some, there is plenty of downside for 2016 there, probably equal to the upside in the offense.

 

If you want to take a big step forward next year, you need to hope that Soler and/or Russell takes a huge leap forward, or you need to hit on your offseason moves more or less across the board. Neither are guarantees or close to it.

 

Theres is a very, very strong free agent class, highlighted by Upton, Price, Cespedes, Heyward, Cueto, and Alex Gordon. And there's no reason not to be a major player for a few of these guys; we'll likely end up handing out a few raises next year, but our core is still going to be incredibly cost efficient, plus another $13MM off the books after next season. And taking a look forward at the projected 2017 free agents list, it's incredibly uninspiring, starring Reddick, Justin Turner, Carlos Gomez, and Strasberg (assuming he still has an arm by then,) and then a steep drop off. So this would be the time to open the wallet.

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