Jon Lester and pickoffs

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Was wondering about this and hoping people could tell me why this wouldn't work when facing Lester.

 

When a runner reaches first base, if they have any sort of reasonable speed (pretty much any non-catchers), could they just start running to second before Lester even delivers the pitch? I'm starting to think he can't throw to a base even in mediocre fashion, so wouldn't he have to run toward either first or second and flip underhand? And would a runner beat that every time?

[Sammy Sofa]

It's not that he can't do it; he just doesn't like doing it, and by and large he doesn't have to.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

It's not that he can't do it; he just doesn't like doing it, and by and large he doesn't have to.

 

I guess I'm staring to wonder whether he really can do it. But if he can, then no worries.

 

ETA: I feel there have been three instances this season where he could have fielded a ball and didn't go for it, and a few times it ended up being a hit. It made me start to wonder if he can't even throw to bases anymore.

[Guest]

There's a longer thread about this elsewhere, but here's the gist of why that won't work and why Lester's yips are overblown:

 

Like you mention, if a guy takes off before Lester's movement, he's just going to step off and run at him. At this point the best case scenario for the runner is that Lester makes a short throw he's uncomfortable with, or he's able to retreat to first base. Since Lester's problem is about comfort/mental hangups, putting him in a different spot than a pickoff throw from the mound probably makes it more likely that he can make the throw(edit: if he needs to at all). In short, taking off before Lester moves is a very low percentage play.

 

Even if a player gets a big lead and goes on first movement, there's several factors that keep Lester's lack of pickoff throws from being a big problem. One is that Lester was, is, and always will be capable of making the throw to first. When the benefit is just a stolen base, risking the baserunner that you aren't the guy that breaks Lester's yips with a huge lead isn't a no-brainer. Even still, in the absence of a throw, Lester is very quick to the plate, and most runners are not fast enough to make a steal automatic even with a big lead. It's been a bit better for runners recently, but for a while, guys stealing 2B on Lester who were 1) not Billy Hamilton and 2) not part of a double steal were not very successful at all.

[Sammy Sofa]

I don't understand why he wouldn't be able to throw to first base. Do people really think this because of one bad throw this year? How would someone forget how to throw to first?

[dew1679666265]

I don't understand why he wouldn't be able to throw to first base. Do people really think this because of one bad throw this year? How would someone forget how to throw to first?

 

I don't believe he has the yips, but it's not unheard of that a baseball player gets some weird mental block that he can't overcome for a period of time - Steve Sax and Chuck Knoblauch at second and Salty at catcher throwing to first, for instance.

[Guest]

I don't understand why he wouldn't be able to throw to first base. Do people really think this because of one bad throw this year? How would someone forget how to throw to first?

 

I was skeptical to start the year, and I haven't seen every Lester IP this year, but I have not seen him make an overhand throw to a base this year. Until he does, I have to assume he has a bit of a hangup about doing so. It's really novel and unique, but it's closer to trivia than OMG HUGE PROBLEM because taking advantage of that hangup involves very small stakes(stealing a base, bunting to get on base).

[Sammy Sofa]

I guess the biggest thing I can't get around is that he's a pitcher; obviously throwing is a part of every baseball player's game besides the DH, but I would just always assume that the guy whose job revolves around throwing the ball well could ultimately throw to a base if he had to, even though he's not firing it in there like he does to the catcher. I mean, he very easily could suck at it this point a la Garza, but just the idea that he CAN'T I don't find too likely.

[abuck1220]

I don't understand why he wouldn't be able to throw to first base. Do people really think this because of one bad throw this year? How would someone forget how to throw to first?

 

hold on...you DONT think he has the yips? because he 5000% does.

 

unless this is some brilliant long con that is gonna pay off when he picks a guy off to end game 7 of the WS.

[abuck1220]

I didn't realize some people were like "oh he could totally do it if he wanted to, but he's too bad ass to even worry about silly stuff like that."

 

no man, he can't do it.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

yeah, I'm pretty sure he has Garza syndrome. greg maddux was the guy who could but didn't bother

[Sammy Sofa]

I don't understand why he wouldn't be able to throw to first base. Do people really think this because of one bad throw this year? How would someone forget how to throw to first?

 

hold on...you DONT think he has the yips? because he 5000% does.

 

unless this is some brilliant long con that is gonna pay off when he picks a guy off to end game 7 of the WS.

 

The yips for, what, 4 seasons now? It seems more likely to me that he's just not very good at it and doesn't like doing it so he doesn't do it because, for the most, part, he really doesn't have to. I never said there was anything badass about it; I just think it's ridiculous to think it's this crippling thing that teams could just take advantage off left and right if they wanted to.

[Derwood]

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=63687

[Bryants Disco Ball]

There's a longer thread about this elsewhere, but here's the gist of why that won't work and why Lester's yips are overblown:

 

Like you mention, if a guy takes off before Lester's movement, he's just going to step off and run at him. At this point the best case scenario for the runner is that Lester makes a short throw he's uncomfortable with, or he's able to retreat to first base. Since Lester's problem is about comfort/mental hangups, putting him in a different spot than a pickoff throw from the mound probably makes it more likely that he can make the throw(edit: if he needs to at all). In short, taking off before Lester moves is a very low percentage play.

 

Even if a player gets a big lead and goes on first movement, there's several factors that keep Lester's lack of pickoff throws from being a big problem. One is that Lester was, is, and always will be capable of making the throw to first. When the benefit is just a stolen base, risking the baserunner that you aren't the guy that breaks Lester's yips with a huge lead isn't a no-brainer. Even still, in the absence of a throw, Lester is very quick to the plate, and most runners are not fast enough to make a steal automatic even with a big lead. It's been a bit better for runners recently, but for a while, guys stealing 2B on Lester who were 1) not Billy Hamilton and 2) not part of a double steal were not very successful at all.

 

Thanks for the response and information.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

I don't understand why he wouldn't be able to throw to first base. Do people really think this because of one bad throw this year? How would someone forget how to throw to first?

 

hold on...you DONT think he has the yips? because he 5000% does.

 

unless this is some brilliant long con that is gonna pay off when he picks a guy off to end game 7 of the WS.

 

The yips for, what, 4 seasons now? It seems more likely to me that he's just not very good at it and doesn't like doing it so he doesn't do it because, for the most, part, he really doesn't have to. I never said there was anything badass about it; I just think it's ridiculous to think it's this crippling thing that teams could just take advantage off left and right if they wanted to.

 

I was like that at the beginning, but I've gone from "he's not very good at it" to he "can't do it." Maybe there is not enough to go by for me to think that, but even when he fields a grounder off the mound, he runs toward first and underhands it. And, again, I really believe there have been a handful of times this season when he did not field a ball because he did not want to have to throw it.

 

To me, those are concerns that make me believe he can't rather than doesn't want.

[Sammy Sofa]

Then I guess he's doomed? If he's actually unable to throw to a base then he's kinda fucked.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Then I guess he's doomed? If he's actually unable to throw to a base then he's kinda [expletive].

 

I guess most of the time he probably can get a barehand toss over that beats the runner.

 

ETA: not sure why I keep saying barehand and not underhand.

[Banedon]

http://www.northsidebaseball.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=63687