Miklasz's apologia for Mozeliak RE: Heyward

[Lenny]

Cardinals GM John Mozeliak is taking some jabs these days, with an increasing number of aroused fans and media types rushing to judgment on the team's major offseason trade with Atlanta.

 

I don't remember anyone being thrilled with the trade when it happened, but let's see where he takes this

 

Miller is 5-1, has six quality starts, and owns the best ERA (1.33) by a MLB starter.

 

Heyward is off to a mediocre start offensively, batting .244 with three homers and only 10 RBIs. Heyward has a .301 onbase percentage and .370 slugging percentage.

 

And according to the advanced metrics, Heyward's defense isn't up to his usual standards so far.

 

You mean King Mozeliak went against the "Cardinal Way", by overreacting and catching a falling knife?

 

Atlanta has Miller, 24, under contract control through 2018. He isn't eligible for free agency until 2019.

 

Heyward, 25, can test free agency after the current season.

 

Don't worry, if the rest of MLB has been paying attention to his horrific plate approach I'm guessing the Cards will have him under control for as long they want, or until Mozeliak gets fired.

 

On the day of the trade, I first noted that Mozeliak was put in a difficult position by the offseason death of Oscar Taveras. The Cardinals planned to make Taveras their starting right fielder in 2015, and Mozeliak had to scramble to fill an unexpected need.

 

If Taveras hadn't died, this trade wouldn't have been made. Maybe Miller would have been moved in some other deal, but he wouldn't have been offered to Atlanta for Heyward.

 

So they were reactionary and thinking short-term, something the "Best Fans in Baseball" have long blamed this franchise of doing, but because someone died, it fits the Cardinal Way.

 

People dying seems to be part of the Cardinal Way.

 

Heyward's rest of the season ZiPS projection is decent: .341 OBP, .757 OPS, 12 homers, 22 doubles, 46 RBIs. Put his defense and base running in the equation, and Heyward projects at 3 wins above replacement (WAR) the rest of the way. The Steamer projections are more favorable; Steamer has Heyward slugging .432 the rest of the way.

 

Wish in one hand and [expletive] in the other.

 

The Cardinals would be OK with that.

 

Gotta feeling they'd be more OK with another ace on the staff than a (VERY) poor man's Jacque Jones.

 

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/bernie-miklasz/bernie-too-soon-to-judge-heyward-miller-trade/article_17e1197d-e357-5396-a019-013057b5c0da.html

[SouthSideRyan]

So now that multiple posts have talked about STL getting ripped off Heyward should go on an MVP run right?

[MWV]

I expect that he'll wallow in mediocrity for most of this season, torpedo his FA value in the process, sign a very team-friendly extension with the cardinals, and then put up several consecutive 5 war seasons.

[Lenny]

I expect that he'll wallow in mediocrity for most of this season, torpedo his FA value in the process, sign a very team-friendly extension with the cardinals, and then put up several consecutive 5 war seasons.

 

Nah. I watch him almost every night, and he seems like a guy who can't see the ball or someone's who pressing too hard.

 

He's ahead of everything, so most of the time it's a weak 4-3 with an occasional 2B over the LF's head. Never opposite field.

 

It's the Wainwright/Drew trade in reverse.

[Felix Leiter]

Consider the source. Miklasz is a windsock who has very little to write about these days. The Rams are leaving for LA, the Blues don't play hockey beyond April and the NBA moved out in the '60's. The Cards GM took a chance by dealing from strength for an OF with some pop. The Cards have little power with Holliday on the decline, Adams has struggled and Molina hasn't hit a HR in almost a year. Heyward has under-performed for sure and that really hurts them going forward. I always wonder what they see in John Jay in CF.

[TruffleShuffle]

Consider the source. Miklasz is a windsock who has very little to write about these days. The Rams are leaving for LA, the Blues don't play hockey beyond April and the NBA moved out in the '60's. The Cards GM took a chance by dealing from strength for an OF with some pop. The Cards have little power with Holliday on the decline, Adams has struggled and Molina hasn't hit a HR in almost a year. Heyward has under-performed for sure and that really hurts them going forward. I always wonder what they see in John Jay in CF.

 

well he's averaged about 2.5 wins per season the last 4 years while practically playing for free. that's probably what they've seen in him.

[jersey cubs fan]

this thread confuses me

[Sammy Sofa]

This seems a tad premature.

[Derwood]

this thread confuses me

 

Perhaps if the thread title was in the form of a question?

[Sammy Sofa]

It reads like Leslie Knope headline that was cut off in the middle.

[Lenny]

Blame Miklasz for writing it.

 

But I stand by my comments on Heyward. 2012 looks like an outlier and his defense has definitely slipped.

[SouthSideRyan]

It reads like Leslie Knope headline that was cut off in the middle.

 

Gazoinksbo

[Sammy Sofa]

It reads like Leslie Knope headline that was cut off in the middle.

 

Gazoinksbo

 

Nice.

[Sammy Sofa]

Blame Miklasz for writing it.

 

But I stand by my comments on Heyward. 2012 looks like an outlier and his defense has definitely slipped.

 

It's not THAT extreme an outlier:

 

4.7, 1.9, 6.5, 3.4 and 5.2 are his fWAR.

 

6.4, 2.5, 5.8, 3.7 and 6.2 are his rWAR.

 

He's likely not toast.

[TruffleShuffle]

heyward on may 10th last year: .206/.297/.301/.598

rest of the season: .291/.368/.410/.778

 

heyward on june 1st, 2013: .142/.283/.236/.519

rest of the season: .297/.376/.500/.876

 

 

maybe we should hold off on throwing dirt on this coffin for a little while.

[Guest]

heyward on may 10th last year: .206/.297/.301/.598

rest of the season: .291/.368/.410/.778

 

heyward on june 1st, 2013: .142/.283/.236/.519

rest of the season: .297/.376/.500/.876

 

 

maybe we should hold off on throwing dirt on this coffin for a little while.

Make me an offer for him in roadkill. Fifth round pick?

[jersey cubs fan]

heyward on may 10th last year: .206/.297/.301/.598

rest of the season: .291/.368/.410/.778

 

heyward on june 1st, 2013: .142/.283/.236/.519

rest of the season: .297/.376/.500/.876

 

 

maybe we should hold off on throwing dirt on this coffin for a little while.

Sounds like a bunch of apologia

[Lenny]

heyward on may 10th last year: .206/.297/.301/.598

rest of the season: .291/.368/.410/.778

 

heyward on june 1st, 2013: .142/.283/.236/.519

rest of the season: .297/.376/.500/.876

 

 

maybe we should hold off on throwing dirt on this coffin for a little while.

 

Let's assume that trend line continues.

 

How is four months of decent RF production worth five years of cost control on a high pedigree/value starting pitcher?

[Sammy Sofa]

heyward on may 10th last year: .206/.297/.301/.598

rest of the season: .291/.368/.410/.778

 

heyward on june 1st, 2013: .142/.283/.236/.519

rest of the season: .297/.376/.500/.876

 

 

maybe we should hold off on throwing dirt on this coffin for a little while.

 

Let's assume that trend line continues.

 

How is four months of decent RF production worth five years of cost control on a high pedigree/value starting pitcher?

 

Depends on if they extend Heyward and what the numbers are.

 

Miller's a solid pitcher, but he's got some warning flags between his LOB%, the gulf between his ERA and FIP and that low BABIP. He's arguably over-performing almost as much as Heyward is under-performing.