Kyle Hendricks is looking good so far

[Ski]

I know he's only had four starts so far, but entering the season, I don't think anyone had him pegged higher as a serviceable fourth or fifth starter, mainly due to his low strikeout rate last year (5.27 K/9, or slightly higher than one strikeout every two innings).

 

However, this year, Kendricks is sporting a a K/9 of 8.27, or just under one batter an inning. It's still early in the season, but K/9 is one of the fastest pitcher stats to stabilize, at 70 batters faced. Hendricks has faced 87 batters so far this season, so his elevated strikeout rate likely isn't just a product of small sample size. His BB/9 is still low, at 1.74, and while BB/9 doesn't level off until 170 batters faced, Hendricks has always been a pinpoint control pitcher, so I don't think anyone is worried his walk rate suddenly spiking this year.

 

Hendricks's elevated strikeout rate, combined with his traditionally low walk rate, makes his K/BB rate good for 23rd in baseball. He's also increased his ground ball percentage over last year (57.1% versus 47.8%). GB% is another encouraging pitcher statistic that stabilizes quickly, requiring only 70 balls in play (Hendricks has exactly 70).

 

Not to mention that his FIP (3.32) and xFIP (3.29) are roughly two runs below his ERA (5.23), which can partly be blamed on a low strand rate (60.3%) and slightly high BABIP (.312).

 

It's still early, but based on his peripherals, Kyle Hendricks is looking a lot closer to a #2 or #3 pitcher than a #4 or #5 pitcher so far.

[Clem Fandango]

I think Hendricks' K rate has been assisted by some great framing work by Montero as well. I've seen several of his pitches that are just off the plate be called strikes due to Montero's work. The two of them are a great combination. A guy like Hendricks who doesn't have overpowering stuff needs a guy like Montero to get the most out of his skillset.

[Guest]

I know he's only had four starts so far, but entering the season, I don't think anyone had him pegged higher as a serviceable fourth or fifth starter, mainly due to his low strikeout rate last year (5.27 K/9, or slightly higher than one strikeout every two innings).

 

You think wrong.

[apete6]

K rate up is very, very encouraging and low BB rate should continue.

 

However, the FIP/ERA difference and lower than average strand rate could continually be an issue for a guy with his lack of pure "stuff". When he really needs to make a pitch to put someone away in an important situation, I've yet to see him make it consistently.

[Guest]

There were 88 qualified starters last year and every one of them had a higher LOB% than Hendricks' current mark of 60%. If his K rate is going to stay closer to its current mark than last year's mark then his BABIP shouldn't be a problem either(especially given his batted ball profile thus far), there's way more sample size than structural problem with this year's results to date.

[ChiCubsFan]

Shouldn't there be some sort of correlation between K rate and strand %? And is strand % generally something that is predictable?

[apete6]

There were 88 qualified starters last year and every one of them had a higher LOB% than Hendricks' current mark of 60%. If his K rate is going to stay closer to its current mark than last year's mark then his BABIP shouldn't be a problem either(especially given his batted ball profile thus far), there's way more sample size than structural problem with this year's results to date.

 

Oh, it'll normalize. There won't be 2 runs of difference between his xFIP and ERA and strand rate won't be at 60%, but I think he'll be a guy with better xFIP than ERA most of the time if he somehow keeps his k-rate where it is now.

 

Which would be a change from my personal expectations that he'd be the type of guy to "outpitch" his peripherals with some of the BS "craftiness" that he allegedly has.

[Tryptamine]

Shouldn't there be some sort of correlation between K rate and strand %? And is strand % generally something that is predictable?

 

In general most starting pitchers will average somewhere around 72-76%

Edited May 1, 2015 by Tryptamine

[davell]

I thought the general feeling around here was that we were happy to go into the year with him penciled in as a starter? I know I was.(still am)

[Guest]

I thought the general feeling around here was that we were happy to go into the year with him penciled in as a starter? I know I was.(still am)

I was happy to have him in the rotation and expected decent, but not great results. Basically, I expected him to be a lot like pre-injury Scott Baker.