ESPN on Jon Lester opening night

[sontensei]

I was kinda blown away that Lester has not thrown to 1st base aside for a couple times since 2013.

 

St Louis was taking super big leads on him..

 

Does this strike you guys at all as a concern for our ace?

[UMFan83]

I was kinda blown away that Lester has not thrown to 1st base aside for a couple times since 2013.

 

St Louis was taking super big leads on him..

 

Does this strike you guys at all as a concern for our ace?

 

Not really. He had his best season last year and I don't think he threw to 1st once all season. It's just something you have to work around.

 

I'm more concerned about Lester's adjustment to actually having to field in the NL instead of having a designated fielder in the AL (right ESPN?)

[Guest]

Lester has thrown less than 15 pickoff throws since 2011. He gives up an above average amount of SB, but doesn't even crack the Top 10 in that regard. There may be days where guys have him timed well and he gives up a few SB, but I don't think it's something to be overly worried about. The Cardinals were 2 of 3 stealing 2B off him yesterday, and one of those successes was the play where even a mediocre throw from Ross would've got him, so it didn't really hurt him yesterday either.

[JeffH]

A much bigger problem is that he's apparently afraid of throwing to the bases after fielding a batted ball.

 

Does he not throw to second base after fielding a comebacker with a runner on first and fewer than two outs?

[Guest]

This came up in the game thread, but while there is the chance Lester just isn't very comfortable throwing to bases, he was already moving towards 1B in stumbling fashion, there were 0 outs, and as a LH he'd have to wheel around to throw to 3rd. Would anything but a throw away have gotten the runner at 3B? Almost certainly. Still, I understand the 'get an out' instincts kicking in on that play. If he does something really weird like ignore a DP opportunity, then I'll worry about him throwing to bases.

[Banedon]

I'll worry about it when it costs us a game. Tough to win without scoring runs.

[OleMissCub]

Concerning his AB with a runner on third and two outs. I don't really fault him since we definitely don't pay him to hit, but I do wonder why an athletic and clearly competitive guy doesn't at least try to swing in that situation. It was Wainwright though, so maybe he just didn't want to look foolish flailing at pitches. Could Maddon have told him to not try?

[Cubbie Swagger]

I'll worry about it when it costs us a game. Tough to win without scoring runs.

This.

 

We have plenty of other stuff to worry about.

[George Hayduke]

I was kinda blown away that Lester has not thrown to 1st base aside for a couple times since 2013.

 

St Louis was taking super big leads on him..

 

Does this strike you guys at all as a concern for our ace?

Fangraphs talked about this in an article last September:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/jon-lester-pickoff-throws-but/

 

Basically when runners do attempt a steal against him, they're slightly more successful than average (77 vs 73%), but it's also true that he has slightly fewerSB attempts against him than the average pitcher (5.5 vs 5.9%), which they chalked up to several different factors such as a quick delivery, mixing up his timing and footwork slightly, and the fact that being a lefty makes a good pickoff attempt possible if he does decide to try it at some point.

 

As others have said, I don't think we should be concerned at all until it becomes a real issue.

[Gmoney08]

On the play hit back at Lester does anyone know if Olt was calling for the ball? It did not look like it to me.

 

If I'm pitching int hat situation and my infield is not howling to go 3 then I am instinctively going 1.

 

The infield needs to get loud there, pretty basic communication.

 

 

As far as the pickoffs... it is a little strange that a lefty never throws over to 1st.

[Clem Fandango]

Maddux was never good at holding runners, either, but that wasn't important to him.

 

"I loved to sit next to him on the bench during games," said Padres pitcher Chris Young, a Princeton graduate. "One day, he just looked at me and said, 'Only 18 percent of all baserunners score. So don't worry about the runners. Just concentrate on the hitter.' "

[Gmoney08]

Maddux was never good at holding runners, either, but that wasn't important to him.

 

"I loved to sit next to him on the bench during games," said Padres pitcher Chris Young, a Princeton graduate. "One day, he just looked at me and said, 'Only 18 percent of all baserunners score. So don't worry about the runners. Just concentrate on the hitter.' "

 

Do you have the article this is from?

[sneakypower]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2009/columns/story?columnist=kurkjian_tim&id=3994136

[Banedon]

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-jon-lester-chicago-cubs-pickoff-aversion-simulation/

[Bull]

There may be a way to turn this to the Cubs' advantage. I would love to see our catchers start throwing to first after pitches to surprise runners who try to exploit lester's blass-sax-knoblauch disease.