Cubs 2015 #5 Prospect

[Hairyducked Idiot]

and his performance ticked up over the course of last season, whether it was due to new coaching, adjusting to the level after skipping Low A, or a little of both.

 

Put me down for "His BABIP went up."

 

Keeping him out of the top 10 entirely requires a lot of cognitive dissonance.

 

Kiley McDaniel had him at No. 10 precisely, in the same "45 FV" group as Jeimer Candelario and Victor Caratini.

 

You may disagree, but it's not remotely indefensible to put him behind 10 guys in this system.

[Rob]

TT, I'd like to hear your argument for McKinney over Torres. I see the same things in Torres I see in McKinney, but at SS.

[Guest]

Tim, unless there's another Mejia in the system I can't think of at the moment, Jefferson Mejia went to Arizona as part of the Miguel Montero trade.

Oops, that's right

[Guest]

I still the Edwards is destined for the 8/9th inning.

[Guest]

TT, I'd like to hear your argument for McKinney over Torres. I see the same things in Torres I see in McKinney, but at SS.

 

Torres seems likely to pass McKinney at some point, but until he either 1) hits for more extra bases, 2) keeps up his performance for longer than 32 PA in full season, 3) shows himself to be a true plus defensive SS, or some combination of those, I can't put him above what McKinney's accomplished at higher levels. I'm excited about Torres, but he's also someone who could very easily occupy that Lindor evaluative blind spot of athletic middle infield types that we assume multiple problems will sort themselves out simply because of age and athleticism. They sure might, but there's a bit of double counting that goes on there that makes the ceiling a little lower than some would imply. I'm talking more broadly about the archetype now than Torres specifically, but I think you get the idea.

[sneakypower]

TT, I'd like to hear your argument for McKinney over Torres. I see the same things in Torres I see in McKinney, but at SS.

(for me) hitting in the FSL checks off a big uncertainty for a prospect, and Torres has a lot to do to even get to that point; mostly a personal bias, though

 

wouldn't surprise me too much to see McKinney & Torres showing up in top-50 lists a year from now

[Cubswin11]

I went Torres, was down to him or Edwards for me with McKinney getting some thought.

[toonsterwu]

Without reading through any other comments or seeing the poll results (which could always sway my vote somewhat if a preferred choice wasn't likely to win and I had to decide between two secondary guys) -

 

Rule out immediately - Mejia (uh he's with Arizona, right?), Rivero (may be a good righty pen arm, but you'd have to convince me he's Mariano Rivera reincarnated to go for him here - personal choice as to how I feel on ranking closers more than anything), Sands/Cease/Steele (nice arms, but they lack monstrous ceilings for me to really go with any of them this high when they are far away), Candelario (I like him, and still think the upside is there, but with our fairly deep system, you've got to do better than what he did last year), Corey Black(don't buy him as a starter, and see Rivero), Jimenez (too raw, too far away, not enough production yet)

 

That leaves a manageable 10, and barring a significant change in my thought (not impossible), I'd guess at least my next 6 or so would be from that list (as I assume it would be for most).

 

Almora - the ceiling is still viewed to be what it was - a plus defensive centerfielder with average, perhaps above average, pop. His approach was exposed in AA, though, and it wasn't great to begin with, as he's fairly aggressive. Still ... reminds me, offensively, a bit of Alcantara and as much as I was never huge on him, I do feel comfortable thinking he should be able to make some changes and succeed in AA.

 

Blackburn - just not sure the ceiling is good enough here. Ceiling seems to be a better Kyle Hendricks - a type of guy that's really hard for me to rank high unless they keep deliveriing up the ladder.

 

Caratini - If there's some semblance of average-ish pop and he improves behind the plate, he would really zoom up people's lists. Count me in the camp of buying that there's potentially average-ish pop.

 

Edwards - Ceiling's always been great, but frame and durability have been the questions.

 

Johnson - I really like Johnson, but I can't ignore the obvious command concerns. Still, 2 potential plus pitches, solid frame, and it's not like he's a scattershot arm (that is, it's not like he regularly misses the catcher's mitt)... any improvement command wise (think say, how Chris Tillman improved) and that mid-rotation ceiling is quite possible.

 

McKinney - There's a lot to like, a sweet stroke. I just don't think he's a CF, and I'm not sure there's enough pop as a corner OF. You know he feels like to me ... Nick Markakis. There's definitely use for a guy like that.

 

Stinnett - I guess there's the positives to being a relatively raw college arm - there's additional room to hope for more. Add in the immense improvement he's made in 1 year, and there's a lot to like. Good athlete, solid frame. I honestly want to talk myself into ranking him above Pierce Johnson, as I feel he's a similar profile arm.

 

Gleyber Torres - That was an awesome start. Still ... some of these reports seem to suggest that he doesn't have a monster ceiling.

 

Underwood - Is he rounding into form? If so, a strong start in 2015 could give him a shot at the bigs in 2016 at some point. He arguably has the highest ceiling of any arm in the system.

 

Vogelbach - Great finish, but he's a first baseman and he's going to need to mash his way up the ladder. If he does, and the in-game power keeps developing, then he'll zoom up top 100 lists. But he's sort of in that prove it mode to me due to position.

 

Thinking about it, I'm taking out Vogelbach, Blackburn, Johnson, Stinnett. Torres doesn't seem to have that monster ceiling, and McKinney may be a tweener (offensively and defensively), so as intriguing as they are, they are out for now. Caratini doesn't need to have a lot of pop to be a valuable catching asset, but he needs to show more pop to rank this high on this year's list, which he hasn't. That leaves Almora/Edwards/Underwood for me. I want to talk myself into one of the arms, as I'm not huge on Almora, but Edwards really needs a full-season's work under his belt to convince me, and Underwood needs to show that was a breakthrough. I really don't love Almora (don't hate him either, just don't love him), but the ceiling still seems solid and I gotta buy that a kid that's in AA already should be given a chance to adjust/learn before I get too down on him, and he gets my nod here. More I think about it, more I think Almora/Alcantara have some offensive similarities.

Edited February 22, 2015 by toonsterwu

[Rob]

TT, I'd like to hear your argument for McKinney over Torres. I see the same things in Torres I see in McKinney, but at SS.

 

Torres seems likely to pass McKinney at some point, but until he either 1) hits for more extra bases, 2) keeps up his performance for longer than 32 PA in full season, 3) shows himself to be a true plus defensive SS, or some combination of those, I can't put him above what McKinney's accomplished at higher levels. I'm excited about Torres, but he's also someone who could very easily occupy that Lindor evaluative blind spot of athletic middle infield types that we assume multiple problems will sort themselves out simply because of age and athleticism. They sure might, but there's a bit of double counting that goes on there that makes the ceiling a little lower than some would imply. I'm talking more broadly about the archetype now than Torres specifically, but I think you get the idea.

 

Fair enough.

 

I'm still leaning Torres, but I see your argument.

[toonsterwu]

I'm a bit bummed to have missed the first four spots, but this is where it gets interesting anyways.

 

I like McKinney, but Torres has the better prospect pedigree, is more likely to stick at a premium defensive position, and actually walked more often (as crazy as that is). And while McKinney is super young for his league, Torres could spend all of 2015 in A ball and still remain on the same development path as McKinney. I think McKinney is criminally underrrated, but I just can't place him above Torres.

 

I know Almora ranks higher than both on some lists, but wow was last year abysmal. If he starts walking or showing some power, I wouldn't have a problem jumping Almora over either at mid-season though.

 

The only other guy really in consideration for me here is Edwards. And I'm just a bit too scared of the injury situation right now to rank him above Torres.

McKinney's limited power projection puts him behind Torres for me

 

Edwards' injury and stamina questions puts him behind Torres for me

 

Almora's disastrous 2014 puts him behind Torres for me

 

Those are going to be my next three guys in some order.

 

I'm randomly picking a quote, so this isn't meant to be directed at Tim ... but I'm a little surprised at the amount of support for Torres this high, and the lack thereof for Almora, and I've never really loved Almora. It's not like Torres has jump of the chart tools/ceiling. I mean, just taking one review, but Kiley had him without really a plus tool. As far away as he is, and with minimal plus tools, I'm a bit surprised we're getting this excited (granted these votes don't really tell the story on excitement, but I'm just a bit curious about the disparity).

 

Yes, Almora was bad ... but he's only 21 this year (to be fair on the Torres, comments, the fact that he did what he did at age 17 is amazing ... ). He's been rushed up a tiny bit, IMO, but the tools are still there. It's not like there's been tools degradation or exposure of some sort - the issue is discipline/approach, and I tend to think he should be given a chance to adjust. One wonders if they pushed him because they thought he needed to get exposure to significant failure. I just don't recall many bad reviews on this kid's head/willingness to learn, and at his age, I'm a bit surprised that the voting has gone the way it has for 5.

 

(fully acknowledge that the gap from 5 to say, 15 might not be huge, and this commenting on vote disparities here can be viewed as somewhat nitpicking).

[Guest]

I'm randomly picking a quote, so this isn't meant to be directed at Tim ... but I'm a little surprised at the amount of support for Torres this high, and the lack thereof for Almora, and I've never really loved Almora. It's not like Torres has jump of the chart tools/ceiling. I mean, just taking one review, but Kiley had him without really a plus tool. As far away as he is, and with minimal plus tools, I'm a bit surprised we're getting this excited (granted these votes don't really tell the story on excitement, but I'm just a bit curious about the disparity).

 

Yes, Almora was bad ... but he's only 21 this year (to be fair on the Torres, comments, the fact that he did what he did at age 17 is amazing ... ). He's been rushed up a tiny bit, IMO, but the tools are still there. It's not like there's been tools degradation or exposure of some sort - the issue is discipline/approach, and I tend to think he should be given a chance to adjust. One wonders if they pushed him because they thought he needed to get exposure to significant failure. I just don't recall many bad reviews on this kid's head/willingness to learn, and at his age, I'm a bit surprised that the voting has gone the way it has for 5.

 

(fully acknowledge that the gap from 5 to say, 15 might not be huge, and this commenting on vote disparities here can be viewed as somewhat nitpicking).

For me, it's not only that Almora was bad. It was the manner in which he was bad. A 1.4% walk rate is really hard to do.

 

I do agree that the Cubs were pushing him to the point where he would have to improve his approach in order to succeed. I agree that he could very easily pop way up in this list by mid-season, let alone next year.

 

I'm not dropping him far down the list - as I said, he'll be in my next group of three guys. Given that I'd consider all of them to be top 100 prospects in the game, that isn't really an insult at all.

 

As for Torres, I'm curious how you interpret Kiley's statement in the manner that you do.

The Venezuelan-born Torres was one of the top bonuses in the 2013 July 2nd class ($1.7 million) and was my top prospect in the group, with domestic scouts really buying into his broad tool package in his stateside debut this year. He’s an ordinary 6’1/180 with average at best power and speed, but his bat, field and throw tools are all above average and Torres has an advanced feel for all aspects of the game with outstanding makeup

That seems to be talking pretty highly about current value for those tools as a 17 year old (all verbs are present tense). Combine that with an approach at the plate that Almora could only dream about and it is pretty easy to dream there.

[toonsterwu]

A bit surprised at the total lack of votes for Underwood, and I'm mildly curious why. He's shown command improvement since he's gotten into the system. The delivery is supposedly cleaner, now. Sure, he needs to get better. He's shown improvement, and he's athletic, so at this stage, I'm leaning more hopeful on the capability to adjust. Yes, there was the weight gain issue, but every youngster's done boneheaded things before, and he showed up in great form this year. The upside is a top of the rotation type arm. I mean, we're talking one of the highest upsides in the entire system in some respects, a potential "1" level upside if things go just a tiny bit better than people expect (changeup ticks up, command ticks up).

 

No, I didn't vote for him here, just surprised at the lack of discussion/love for him. Prior to thinking about it right now, I was thinking he'd be borderline top 10 for me, but I keep going back to the improvement and the ceiling.

[Guest]

A bit surprised at the total lack of votes for Underwood, and I'm mildly curious why. He's shown command improvement since he's gotten into the system. The delivery is supposedly cleaner, now. Sure, he needs to get better. He's shown improvement, and he's athletic, so at this stage, I'm leaning more hopeful on the capability to adjust. Yes, there was the weight gain issue, but every youngster's done boneheaded things before, and he showed up in great form this year. The upside is a top of the rotation type arm. I mean, we're talking one of the highest upsides in the entire system in some respects, a potential "1" level upside if things go just a tiny bit better than people expect (changeup ticks up, command ticks up).

 

No, I didn't vote for him here, just surprised at the lack of discussion/love for him. Prior to thinking about it right now, I was thinking he'd be borderline top 10 for me, but I keep going back to the improvement and the ceiling.

I'm torn between him and Stinnett as my next group after Torres / Edwards / McKinney / Almora.

 

An awful lot of it is my simple bias against pitching prospects at this point.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

he needs to miss more bats

[Guest]

he needs to miss more bats

He improved a lot as the year went along.

 

Up through 6/22: 45IP, 29K, 20BB

From 6/28 and on: 64IP, 66K, 24BB

[toonsterwu]

I'm randomly picking a quote, so this isn't meant to be directed at Tim ... but I'm a little surprised at the amount of support for Torres this high, and the lack thereof for Almora, and I've never really loved Almora. It's not like Torres has jump of the chart tools/ceiling. I mean, just taking one review, but Kiley had him without really a plus tool. As far away as he is, and with minimal plus tools, I'm a bit surprised we're getting this excited (granted these votes don't really tell the story on excitement, but I'm just a bit curious about the disparity).

 

Yes, Almora was bad ... but he's only 21 this year (to be fair on the Torres, comments, the fact that he did what he did at age 17 is amazing ... ). He's been rushed up a tiny bit, IMO, but the tools are still there. It's not like there's been tools degradation or exposure of some sort - the issue is discipline/approach, and I tend to think he should be given a chance to adjust. One wonders if they pushed him because they thought he needed to get exposure to significant failure. I just don't recall many bad reviews on this kid's head/willingness to learn, and at his age, I'm a bit surprised that the voting has gone the way it has for 5.

 

(fully acknowledge that the gap from 5 to say, 15 might not be huge, and this commenting on vote disparities here can be viewed as somewhat nitpicking).

For me, it's not only that Almora was bad. It was the manner in which he was bad. A 1.4% walk rate is really hard to do.

 

I do agree that the Cubs were pushing him to the point where he would have to improve his approach in order to succeed. I agree that he could very easily pop way up in this list by mid-season, let alone next year.

 

I'm not dropping him far down the list - as I said, he'll be in my next group of three guys. Given that I'd consider all of them to be top 100 prospects in the game, that isn't really an insult at all.

 

As for Torres, I'm curious how you interpret Kiley's statement in the manner that you do.

The Venezuelan-born Torres was one of the top bonuses in the 2013 July 2nd class ($1.7 million) and was my top prospect in the group, with domestic scouts really buying into his broad tool package in his stateside debut this year. He’s an ordinary 6’1/180 with average at best power and speed, but his bat, field and throw tools are all above average and Torres has an advanced feel for all aspects of the game with outstanding makeup

That seems to be talking pretty highly about current value for those tools as a 17 year old (all verbs are present tense). Combine that with an approach at the plate that Almora could only dream about and it is pretty easy to dream there.

 

First off, I'm not knocking Torres.

 

2nd, Kiley's been fairly clear when he feels a guy has plus tools. Admittedly, I haven't read all his fangraphs reviews, but he seems very affirmative when noting plus tools. The fact that he doesn't note multiple plus tools, or the potential to develop plus tools stands out (unless I'm mistaken, his little plus marks next to FV projections indicates if he believes a guy's FV tools might be better than he's currently anticipating). I know a couple other places, off the top, seemed to have slightly better reviews on tools than Kiley, but it's not like anyone's saying he has a plus-plus tool, or multiple plus tools.

 

This doesn't mean I don't think he can succeed. In all honesty, much as I liked Arismendy back in the day, I never loved him as a MLB hitter (and I think I've been fairly clear in noting that, although a part of me would love to see him give a full run of 450-500 AB's to prove me wrong), and while it's early, I think I feel much more comfortable thinking Gleyber will reach the bigs than I did of Alcantara when he had his breakout in 2012. The former's reached the bigs, so again, any discussion on this is really focused only a rankings perspective (and hence only on discussion).

 

It's just, these aren't monster tools. It's a broad base of solid tools to work with, and if he sticks at short, a broad-based tools shortstop, a guy who hits for average, has some pop, has a great approach, can steal some bases would have immense value. Still, it feels like a guy I want to see perform in full-season before ranking him over, in this case, a guy with a higher ceiling in a higher level.

 

Anyhow, that's me.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

he needs to miss more bats

He improved a lot as the year went along.

 

Up through 6/22: 45IP, 29K, 20BB

From 6/28 and on: 64IP, 66K, 24BB

and if 6/28 on pace continues in MB, he'll be right there. he could be top three by the end of the year with the likely graduations.

[Guest]

Almora's only real plus tool is defense, but it comes at a position that is lower down the defensive spectrum than SS.

 

To me, Almora's flaw is near fatal. He has to make a huge adjustment to make it work. I think he has a chance to do so, but it will be a big change for him. To me, there is as much risk there as there is in Torres being so far away from MLB.

[Guest]

BTW - I'm really hoping to see all of Underwood, Tseng, Martinez, Stinnett and Blackburn in the MB rotation this year. That would be a very interesting group.

[Rob]

I'm a bit bummed to have missed the first four spots, but this is where it gets interesting anyways.

 

I like McKinney, but Torres has the better prospect pedigree, is more likely to stick at a premium defensive position, and actually walked more often (as crazy as that is). And while McKinney is super young for his league, Torres could spend all of 2015 in A ball and still remain on the same development path as McKinney. I think McKinney is criminally underrrated, but I just can't place him above Torres.

 

I know Almora ranks higher than both on some lists, but wow was last year abysmal. If he starts walking or showing some power, I wouldn't have a problem jumping Almora over either at mid-season though.

 

The only other guy really in consideration for me here is Edwards. And I'm just a bit too scared of the injury situation right now to rank him above Torres.

McKinney's limited power projection puts him behind Torres for me

 

Edwards' injury and stamina questions puts him behind Torres for me

 

Almora's disastrous 2014 puts him behind Torres for me

 

Those are going to be my next three guys in some order.

 

I'm randomly picking a quote, so this isn't meant to be directed at Tim ... but I'm a little surprised at the amount of support for Torres this high, and the lack thereof for Almora, and I've never really loved Almora. It's not like Torres has jump of the chart tools/ceiling. I mean, just taking one review, but Kiley had him without really a plus tool. As far away as he is, and with minimal plus tools, I'm a bit surprised we're getting this excited (granted these votes don't really tell the story on excitement, but I'm just a bit curious about the disparity).

 

Yes, Almora was bad ... but he's only 21 this year (to be fair on the Torres, comments, the fact that he did what he did at age 17 is amazing ... ). He's been rushed up a tiny bit, IMO, but the tools are still there. It's not like there's been tools degradation or exposure of some sort - the issue is discipline/approach, and I tend to think he should be given a chance to adjust. One wonders if they pushed him because they thought he needed to get exposure to significant failure. I just don't recall many bad reviews on this kid's head/willingness to learn, and at his age, I'm a bit surprised that the voting has gone the way it has for 5.

 

(fully acknowledge that the gap from 5 to say, 15 might not be huge, and this commenting on vote disparities here can be viewed as somewhat nitpicking).

 

Almora took 14 walks in 529 PA last year. Torres took 29 in 215 PA.

 

Let's put this another way. Per 529 PA for his career, Neifi Perez averaged 22 walks. Almora only managed to get 63% of the way to showing Neifi Perez level plate discipline.

[Guest]

I almost went out of the bounds of rationality to make a Rubi Silva comp for Almora, personally.

[Rob]

I almost went out of the bounds of rationality to make a Rubi Silva comp for Almora, personally.

 

Wanna hear something truly frightening?

 

Almora's walk rate last year is closer to Carlos Zambrano's as a hitter than it is to Neifi Perez.

Edited February 23, 2015 by Rob

[Guest]

Almora's walk rate was 5.5% at Daytona. Not incredible by any stretch, but I don't think it's fair to harp on his 35 games at AA at age 20 as his death knell, especially considering his very low K rate and defensive value. I'm not voting for him until at least #9, but he's more than his Tennessee numbers.

 

Underwood on the other hand, I've never really gotten the appeal. He's not been particularly good at striking guys out, throwing strikes, preventing hits, or preventing HR. Sure he has better stuff than Blackburn, but I've never read anything indicating he has TOR potential, and his performance doesn't leave much promise either. There's a whole bunch of pitchers I'd take over him. Edwards, Johnson, Stinnett, Sands, Steele, probably Tseng too.

[Rob]

Almora's walk rate was 5.5% at Daytona. Not incredible by any stretch, but I don't think it's fair to harp on his 35 games at AA at age 20 as his death knell, especially considering his very low K rate and defensive value. I'm not voting for him until at least #9, but he's more than his Tennessee numbers.

 

Underwood on the other hand, I've never really gotten the appeal. He's not been particularly good at striking guys out, throwing strikes, preventing hits, or preventing HR. Sure he has better stuff than Blackburn, but I've never read anything indicating he has TOR potential, and his performance doesn't leave much promise either. There's a whole bunch of pitchers I'd take over him. Edwards, Johnson, Stinnett, Sands, Steele, probably Tseng too.

 

Almora's walk rate at Daytona last year was 3.1%, not 5.5%.

[Guest]

Goodness I'm just terrible at math recently.

 

That certainly doesn't help Almora naturally, but I think the point still remains. Almora could've stayed at Daytona all last year and been slightly young for the level and been below average. He still has the same Vittersian concerns, but the magnitude of his struggles after being aggressively promoted doesn't make him a worse prospect in my eyes.