The 2015 Bullpen

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This was fun to put together last year, so let's do it again.

 

INCUMBENTS

 

Hector Rondon - RH - 3rd year renewal - out of options

Level   IP     ERA    FIP   xFIP    K/9  BB/9  HR/9
MLB     63    2.42   2.26   2.81    8.9   2.1   0.3

Repertoire: Fastball(95.7), Slider(83.5), Cutter(91.2)

 

Rondon built on his velocity increase from the 2nd half of last year and was very good for a full-season at the MLB level. He doesn't have Strop's slider or a fastball that plays quite as well as Ramirez's, but he has better command and control than both, which combined with stuff that is no slouch, led to a terrific season as closer. No reason for him not to continue in that role next year.

 

Pedro Strop - RH - 2nd year Arb eligible - out of options

Level   IP     ERA    FIP   xFIP    K/9  BB/9  HR/9
MLB     61    2.21   2.66   2.82   10.5   3.7   0.3

Repertoire: Fastball(95.0), Slider(82.6)

 

Strop's slider was again one of the best pitches in the game, and that along with very good fastball velocity led to him repeating his Cub success from 2013. Strop was especially unhittable as the season progressed, here's his line after missing most of May with a groin injury: 48.1 IP, 29 H, 8 ER, 56/17 K/BB, 0 HR, 1.49 ERA, 2.12 FIP. Filthy. The only reason he won't be the 8th inning guy is if 1) Rondon falters so he ascends to the 9th, or 2) some other reliever outpitches him(good luck).

 

Neil Ramirez - RH - 1st year renewal - out of options

Level   IP     ERA    FIP   xFIP    K/9  BB/9  HR/9
MLB     43    1.44   2.61   3.48   10.9   3.5   0.4

Repertoire: Fastball(94.3), Slider(86.9), Curveball(79.2)

 

Ramirez was a revelation after joining the MLB pen in April. With his injury past he was handled pretty carefully(he pitched on 0 days rest just 5 times), but with Strop and Rondon shortening games to 7 innings that was an easy sacrifice. Ramirez's stuff and command had peaks and valleys over the year, but he still only had one month with a FIP above 2.80. He should be a fireman again this year, and it'll be a success if he can maintain this performance with fewer playing time restrictions.

 

Justin Grimm - RH - 2nd year renewal - 1 option left

Level   IP     ERA    FIP   xFIP    K/9  BB/9  HR/9
MLB     69    3.78   3.20   3.63    9.1   3.5   0.5

Repertoire: Fastball(94.0), Curveball(78.6), Slider(84.2), Changeup(82.8)

 

Grimm had a pretty good season for his first go at being a full-time reliever, were it not for the 3 excellent relievers in front of him he'd get even more notice. Brett pointed this out earlier in the week, but Grimm's velocity tracked similarly to 2013 Rondon:

 

http://i.imgur.com/vVVG2bP.png

 

And the results validate that too:

 

           IP    ERA   K/9  BB/9  HR/9   BAA   FIP
1st Half   41   4.57   8.9   4.6   0.9  .242  4.08
2nd Half   27   2.60   9.4   1.9   0.0  .200  1.90

 

If 2nd half Grimm with the improved velocity shows up in 2015, he's a 4th dominant reliever for Renteria to have at his disposal. Really easy to look smart managing a bullpen when you can make every game 6 innings and still have guys with FIPs in the 2s leftover.

 

Wesley Wright - LH - 3rd year Arb eligiible - out of options

Level   IP     ERA    FIP   xFIP    K/9  BB/9  HR/9
MLB     48    3.17   3.44   3.80    6.9   3.5   0.4

Repertoire: Fastball(90.2), Curveball(78.8), Slider(83.9), Changeup(84.5)

 

Wright was a very nice pickup last offseason, and he did the job of a LOOGY very well. Fun fact: Wright faced 85 left handed hitters last year. He gave up 0 extra base hits in those 85 PA. With Russell gone and the other internal options not being overwhelming, Wright should be the primary LOOGY this season.

 

HOPEFULS

 

Brian Schlitter - RH - 3rd year renewal (I think) - 1 option left

Level   IP     ERA    FIP   xFIP    K/9  BB/9  HR/9
AAA      8    3.38   3.83           4.5   3.3   0.0    
MLB     56    4.15   3.61   3.92    4.9   3.0   0.3

Repertoire: Fastball(92.7), Slider(83.7)

 

Schlitter was a safety blanket early on when the bullpen was on fire(thanks, Veras!), but his role diminished until he was demoted in August. Schlitter doesn't strike anyone out, and his walk rate is too high for someone who never gets K's. However, if there was a reliever that could succeed with a no-K profile, Schlitter could make it work. He gets good movement on his fastball and prevents loud contact(12 XBH in 56 IP, .079 IsoP against), and he's shown an ability to take the ball day after day without losing effectiveness. With 4 superior RHRP ahead of him he has an uphill climb though, especially as more big-stuff guys arrive behind him.

 

Blake Parker - RH - 2nd year renewal - 1 option left

Level   IP     ERA    FIP   xFIP    K/9  BB/9  HR/9
AAA     35    1.77   2.97          13.1   3.3   0.8
MLB     21    5.14   3.28   3.12   10.3   1.7   1.3

Repertoire: Fastball(90.5), Curveball(76.2), Splitter(81.4)

 

I've always had a soft spot for Parker, and I was very happy when he had a strong 2013 at the MLB level. That made it all the more surprising when Parker didn't even make the MLB pen to start 2014. He went back to Iowa and humiliated hitters there, then could not take advantage of limited MLB opportunities. The ERA and FIP/xFIP gap gives some hope that he can still be effective, but bullpen spots are a lot harder to come by than they were in 2012, and while Parker has an option left it comes with several strings attached. Spring Training could be his last shot as a Cub.

 

Zac Rosscup - LH - 1st year renewal - 2 options left

Level   IP     ERA    FIP   xFIP    K/9  BB/9  HR/9
AAA     30    2.10   2.67          11.4   4.5   0.0
MLB     13    9.45   4.63   4.07   14.2   8.1   1.4

Repertoire: Fastball(92.0), Slider(82.2)

 

Rosscup's high K, high walk, hard to hit, fastball/slider profile isn't atypical of relievers, but the fact that he does it from the left side makes him more interesting. He doesn't have the traditional L/R split though, and his brief MLB exposure fell flat, so despite a LHP-sized hole in the bullpen he's no lock to make the team.

 

Arodys Vizcaino - RH - 3rd year renewal - 2 options left

Level   IP     ERA    FIP   xFIP    K/9  BB/9  HR/9
A+       9    1.00   2.50          10.0   4.0   0.0
AA      13    2.63   2.67          10.5   2.0   0.7   
AAA     18    5.40   4.79           7.9   5.4   0.5
MLB      5    5.40   5.93   4.82    7.2   5.4   1.8

Repertoire: Fastball(95.2), Curveball(83.0), Changeup(87.0)

 

Vizcaino's stuff is bigger than any other reliever in the organization, but the command not coming back after all his time off due to injury is concerning. He could play himself onto the opening day roster and even into a setup/closing role by year end if the control is there, but right now it looks like he may be Iowa-bound so he can try and repeat his delivery enough to hit his spots.

 

Eric Jokisch - LH - 1st year renewal - 3 options left

Level   IP     ERA    FIP   xFIP    K/9  BB/9  HR/9
AAA    158    3.58   3.54           8.1   1.8   0.7
MLB     14    1.88   5.30   3.70    6.3   2.5   1.9

Repertoire: Fastball(89.3), Changeup(79.3), Slider(84.2), Curveball(74.2)

 

Jokisch is really interesting to me. He's been an effective starter in the minors and if his stuff plays up at all in relief he could offer a lot to the bullpen. On the other hand, his repertoire is very much a starter's repertoire, and he had zero platoon split at Iowa this year(seriously, it's freaky). If Jokisch can show an ability to get MLB hitters out, he makes a fine 2nd LHRP and long reliever option, and given the crowded pen that's not a bad thing to have both roles tied up in one person. Still, he's never been a prospect darling so he'll have to prove it.

 

Armando Rivero - RH - 1st year renewal - 3 options left (not yet on 40-man)

Level   IP     ERA    FIP   xFIP    K/9  BB/9  HR/9
AA      34    1.56   2.29          14.0   4.1   0.5
AAA     30    2.97   3.57          13.6   3.6   1.2

Repertoire: Fastball(93-96), Slider, Changeup

 

Like Vizcaino, Rivero is a wild card for next year's pen. Those Marmolian K rates are hard to ignore, but the Marmolian HR rate and mediocre control put a damper on the excitement. With the current depth Rivero will have to earn his way to the MLB pen, but he could be there with as little as a single injury or a strong Spring Training.

 

 

OTHERS OF NOTE

 

- The SP that don't make the rotation - While there's actually a very decent likelihood someone from this group(Jackson, Wood, Hendricks, Turner, Doubront, Straily) end up impacting the pen in a large way, I simply can't bring myself to write up every single one. If one makes the pen it would be as a long reliever, in Doubront's case maybe handling some secondary LOOGY duties like described for Jokisch.

 

- Dallas Beeler - He got to MLB so he deserves a mention, but he's essentially Schlitter without the success. Not much optimism he breaks into that group

 

- EDIT: Joe Ortiz: There's some statistical things you can squint at to like about Ortiz, but hard to tell how much impact he'll have. They claimed guys around this time last year that were gone by the Winter Meetings.

 

- An external acquisition - Like Veras last year, we could see another reliever brought in to hedge against failure and injury. This seems less likely than previous years with Rondon/Strop/Ramirez/Grimm looking so strong.

 

- Kyuji Fujikawa - I could definitely see Fujikawa coming back on a minor league deal and playing a part in next year's pen. His stuff looked like it was still there(17 K in 13 IP), but the command and control(6 BB and 2 HR in 13 IP) still need more time(if they do come back, see Vizcaino, Arodys).

 

- Non-Iowa minor leaguers - Edwards and Johnson both have the stuff to be bullpen guys at the MLB level, Hunter Cervenka is a future LOOGY option, Matt Loosen has the stuff to figure it out, and Zack Godley was a poor man's Rivero at Daytona last year and could move faster given his age and success.

[Chicago1948]

Unlikely that Chris Rusin makes the Cubs pen since he is now in Colorado.

 

Don't forget about Joe Ortiz. The Cubs claimed him from Texas in late September.

[weis21]

Edit: deleted - 2 yr old with an iPad Edited October 20, 2014 by weis21

[Guest]

If we go out and spend money on a reliever this offseason my head may explode.

[Guest]

Unlikely that Chris Rusin makes the Cubs pen since he is now in Colorado.

 

Don't forget about Joe Ortiz. The Cubs claimed him from Texas in late September.

 

Whoops, Swapped out Ortiz for Rusin. Thanks!

[KingCubsFan]

I think Rivero is going to pass Grimm and Ramirez in the pen by June.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If we go out and spend money on a reliever this offseason my head may explode.

 

I wouldn't mind a good lefty, but I may be too down on wright