BP's Top 10 Cubs Prospects

[Guest]

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

 

This is what I go back to and why with where our guys are ranked, we should wind up with damn good results.

 

i was looking for that earlier and couldn't find it. thanks!

 

for a new era, here's a good snippet:

 

About 60% of position players ranked in Baseball America’s top 20 succeed in the majors.

 

The problem is that I'm guessing they used data that goes pretty far back for this (I saw something about 1990-2003?) and I think prospect evaluation (both from a scouting and numbers standpoint) has come a really long way in the last 10 years or so.

 

Can't really get much of a sample size for those guys yet, though.

 

Either way, if it was 60% in that sample, my guess is it'd be higher now.

[Guest]

it still seems so weird that almora is kind of slow

 

I don't know if he's actually kind of slow or juts kind of slow for a CFer who plays amazing defense

[Cubswin11]

it still seems so weird that almora is kind of slow

 

I don't know if he's actually kind of slow or juts kind of slow for a CFer who plays amazing defense

Yeah it's definitely relative, he's "slow" when compared to the elite speed guys in the minors like Billy Hamilton, Buxton, etc. But he isn't "slow" in most contexts.

[Guest]

When I hear that description I think of Jim Edmonds (defensively, obv).

[Cubswin11]

When I hear that description I think of Jim Edmonds (defensively, obv).

That seems like a fair description/comp. Maybe Edmonds with a little more speed/athleticism and a little less instinct.

[Guest]

When I hear that description I think of Jim Edmonds (defensively, obv).

That seems like a fair description/comp. Maybe Edmonds with a little more speed/athleticism and a little less instinct.

Edmonds had great "instincts", he used them to his advantage for making highlight real plays. In his prime he was the best defensive CF I've ever seen play.

[A New Era]

I really wish it worked that way.

 

Look, I realize it doesn't work that way. I realize that doesn't mean "this guy's floor is an average player. I'm just trying to be optimistic. I really do like our top 3 though, even if it is a bit on the naive unrealistic side to feel the way I do.

[Guest]

I would think Bryant is the closest thing the Cubs have to a sure everyday MLB player. No?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I would think Bryant is the closest thing the Cubs have to a sure everyday MLB player. No?

 

No. He has all the same problems as Baez with less power, older, at a lower level and at a worse defensive profile.

[A New Era]

I would think Bryant is the closest thing the Cubs have to a sure everyday MLB player. No?

 

No. He has all the same problems as Baez with less power, older, at a lower level and at a worse defensive profile.

 

But God damn does he have a pretty smile.

[Guest]

He has the same statistical problems, but the reasons for them are different, and probably less worrisome for Bryant.

 

That said, Bryant still only has 62 PAs at full season ball, so he's not inherently a safer prospect than Baez or even Alcantara as of today. That can quickly change as the 2014 season progresses though.

[sneakypower]

order of likelihood of being acceptable MLB starter: Almora, Bryant, Soler, Baez

[davell]

I think that's really low for Javy. I mean if he put up a .200/.250/.500 line, that's an acceptable starter.....

[Guest]

order of likelihood of being acceptable MLB starter: Almora, Bryant, Soler, Baez

 

Part of me thinks my ordering would be the exact opposite, but I'm more leery of higher competition eroding Almora's ceiling to Eric Byrnes than most.

[MWV]

Speaking of which...

For fun, let's pick out a Red Sox year (since Theo was there). Since we typically talk about 3-4 years as the appropriate time to assess prospects in a system, let's look at the Red Sox post-2009 lists:

 

BA Top 10:

1. Ryan Westmoreland, of

2. Casey Kelly, rhp

3. Josh Reddick, of

4. Lars Anderson, 1b

5. Ryan Kalish, of

6. Junichi Tazawa, rhp

7. Reymond Fuentes, of

8. Anthony Rizzo, 1b

9. Jose Iglesias, ss

10. Derrik Gibson, ss/2b

 

...the Cubs signed him to a minor league contract.

Link

[USSoccer]

I'm really puzzled that Almora is still so highly thought of despite being at a really low level, and barely playing in 2013 due to injury.

 

Also, I'm going to reiterate my belief that Dan Vogelbach will be a better player than Anthony Rizzo, and I hope the FO doesn't just view him as trade bait only.

 

Finally, if I had to order the position players, I think Baez, Bryant, and Vogelbach are the ones that are most likely to be everyday players, and Soler the least likely.

[MWV]

Were it not for injury, Almora would have likely been promoted to the FSL last season as a 19 year old. The only other player under 20 in the FSL last year was Buxton.

 

Edit: Also, in 61 games at Kane County, he slashed .329/.376/.466 despite being about 2 years younger than league average. Throw in all the glowing reports about makeup and instincts, and its pretty easy to see why people like Almora. Another injury plagued season may take a little shine off of him, though.

[davell]

He was also excellent in the AFL, where he put up a .307/.342/.480 line, while Buxton went .212/.288/.404. Small sample size and Buxton came down with a shoulder issue, but Almora is damn good. His Kane County line at 19 was .329/.376/.466. If he hadn't gotten hurt, he would have gotten promoted to Daytona and based on his contact rates and scouting reports, would have been just fine there.

[USSoccer]

Were it not for injury, Almora would have likely been promoted to the FSL last season as a 19 year old. The only other player under 20 in the FSL last year was Buxton.

 

Edit: Also, in 61 games at Kane County, he slashed .329/.376/.466 despite being about 2 years younger than league average. Throw in all the glowing reports about makeup and instincts, and its pretty easy to see why people like Almora. Another injury plagued season may take a little shine off of him, though.

 

Fair enough; you see my point, though.

[MWV]

Regarding injury issues, yeah.

[Guest]

Also, I'm going to reiterate my belief that Dan Vogelbach will be a better player than Anthony Rizzo, and I hope the FO doesn't just view him as trade bait only.

 

Not saying this in an insulting way, since that opinion isn't crazy, but for reference: Rizzo outhit Vogelbach in Low A at a younger age right after he was diagnosed with cancer. Plus there's a canyon between them in terms of defensive value.

[USSoccer]

Also, I'm going to reiterate my belief that Dan Vogelbach will be a better player than Anthony Rizzo, and I hope the FO doesn't just view him as trade bait only.

 

Not saying this in an insulting way, since that opinion isn't crazy, but for reference: Rizzo outhit Vogelbach in Low A at a younger age right after he was diagnosed with cancer. Plus there's a canyon between them in terms of defensive value.

 

I'll admit I don't have a lot of objective evidence to back the opinion up; it's just a feeling. I just don't get the feeling that Rizzo is going to be a lot better than he currently is offensively.

[Guest]

Also, I'm going to reiterate my belief that Dan Vogelbach will be a better player than Anthony Rizzo, and I hope the FO doesn't just view him as trade bait only.

 

Not saying this in an insulting way, since that opinion isn't crazy, but for reference: Rizzo outhit Vogelbach in Low A at a younger age right after he was diagnosed with cancer. Plus there's a canyon between them in terms of defensive value.

 

I'll admit I don't have a lot of objective evidence to back the opinion up; it's just a feeling. I just don't get the feeling that Rizzo is going to be a lot better than he currently is offensively.

 

Rizzo is already very good.

 

viewtopic.php?p=2998900#p2998900

[sneakypower]

I think that's really low for Javy. I mean if he put up a .200/.250/.500 line, that's an acceptable starter.....

one guy iso'd 300 last year: Chris Davis

 

take away some HRs and like 40% of the walks from Pedro Alvarez's 2012 campaign and you can see a realistic Baez outcome being well below average

 

and tt could be right though, i could entertain an argument for the order i chose being reversed; they're all four still mostly pretty close in terms of predictability

[treebird]

one guy iso'd 300 last year: Chris Davis

 

i started to post this yesterday but was too lazy. 300 iso is so much today. 1 guy last year, 0 guys in 2012.