BP's Top 10 Cubs Prospects

[ctcf]

1.) Javier Baez

2.) Kris Bryant

3.) Albert Almora

4.) Jorge Soler

5.) C.J. Edwards

6.) Arismendy Alcantara

7.) Pierce Johnson

8.) Dan Vogelbach

9.) Christian Villanueva

10.) Jeimer Candelario

 

Figured I'd make one for BP since the BA list had it's own thread. Mods can feel free to move this wherever.

 

Edwards is higher than I thought he'd be given Parks' comments about him. Otherwise, no real surprises here.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22641#.UuEVqVzsaPQ.twitter

[Guest]

1.) Javier Baez

2.) Kris Bryant

3.) Albert Almora

4.) Jorge Soler

5.) C.J. Edwards

6.) Arismendy Alcantara

7.) Pierce Johnson

8.) Dan Vogelbach

9.) Christian Villanueva

10.) Jeimer Candelario

 

Figured I'd make one for BP since the BA list had it's own thread. Mods can feel free to move this wherever.

 

Edwards is higher than I thought he'd be given Parks' comments about him. Otherwise, no real surprises here.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22641#.UuEVqVzsaPQ.twitter

That may end up being our exact top 10, too.

[ctcf]

1.) Javier Baez

2.) Kris Bryant

3.) Albert Almora

4.) Jorge Soler

5.) C.J. Edwards

6.) Arismendy Alcantara

7.) Pierce Johnson

8.) Dan Vogelbach

9.) Christian Villanueva

10.) Jeimer Candelario

 

Figured I'd make one for BP since the BA list had it's own thread. Mods can feel free to move this wherever.

 

Edwards is higher than I thought he'd be given Parks' comments about him. Otherwise, no real surprises here.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22641#.UuEVqVzsaPQ.twitter

That may end up being our exact top 10, too.

 

Haha yea just realized that. Can't say I disagree.

[ctcf]

Apparently on the Top Players Under 25 list, Castro comes in 2nd behind Baez and Lake comes in 10th.

[Guest]

Apparently on the Top Players Under 25 list, Castro comes in 2nd behind Baez and Lake comes in 10th.

Rizzo?

[ctcf]

Apparently on the Top Players Under 25 list, Castro comes in 2nd behind Baez and Lake comes in 10th.

Rizzo?

 

Sadly just recounting what twitter tells me as my BP subscription was up a week or so ago.

[Guest]

Edwards is higher than I thought he'd be given Parks' comments about him. Otherwise, no real surprises here.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22641#.UuEVqVzsaPQ.twitter

 

On Twitter, Parks had been a lot higher on Edwards in the past few weeks.

[Guancous]

Apparently on the Top Players Under 25 list, Castro comes in 2nd behind Baez and Lake comes in 10th.

Rizzo?

 

Rizzo comes in 4th

[ctcf]

As Sahadev Sharma noted on twitter, it's pretty damn neat that the top 9 all project to arrive in 2014/15

[TruffleShuffle]

just read the write-up on baez. brb need to change pants.

[ConstableRabbit]

Can you post highlights?

[Rob]

Apparently on the Top Players Under 25 list, Castro comes in 2nd behind Baez and Lake comes in 10th.

Rizzo?

 

Rizzo comes in 4th

 

So then the Top Players Under 25 list is:

 

1. Baez

2. Castro

3. Bryant

4. Rizzo

5. Almora

6. Soler

7. Edwards

8. Alcantara

9. Johnson

10. Lake

 

I don't have a problem with Lake making the back end of that list over Vogelbach. Vogs still has a long road of development to even make the big leagues.

[Guest]

Can you post highlights?

 

A scout dropped a Miguel Cabrera ceiling comp.

[Rob]

Can you post highlights?

 

A scout dropped a Miguel Cabrera ceiling comp.

 

http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxlq7tmiCG1qfgutho1_500.gif

[ConstableRabbit]

Can you post highlights?

 

A scout dropped a Miguel Cabrera ceiling comp.

http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view7/2442843/celebration-o.gif

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I can post the entire thing if that's allowed.

[Clem Fandango]

You can't post all of the subscriber content, but you can post bullet points. Although, I wouldn't be upset if I got a random PM with the article inside it :-"

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I'll post the "Year Ahead" blurbs.

[Guest]

Can you post highlights?

 

A scout dropped a Miguel Cabrera ceiling comp.

With the ability to stay at SS.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Baez might lack Buxton’s overall athleticism or Bogaerts’ polish, but the 21-year-old Puerto Rican might have the highest offensive ceiling of any player in the minors, a potential middle-of-the-order force capable of hitting for average and obnoxious game power. While he’s no longer a true boom-or-bust prospect, Baez carries more risk than the average high-end prospect with Double-A experience because of the extreme projections on his tools and the balls-to-the-wall approach he often brings to all sides of the game. As Baez matures and adds more patience at the plate and more confidence in the field, he should develop into one of the game’s elite players, a left-side infielder (short or third) with an offensive attack that some scouts project to achieve Miguel Cabrera-level heights, an extreme comparison but one that his elite bat speed and power potential could make a reality if everything clicks. He needs to shorten up against arm-side pitching and stay in his approach, and he needs to slow the game down in the field and let his hands and arm help the cause rather than hurt it, but he should continue to crush in the upper minors and force a major-league decision at some point in 2014. The Cubs could have a generational talent in Baez.

 

Bryant is ready to start his first full season at the Double-A level, and with any luck, he will be forcing the issue at the major-league level at some point in 2014. The power is enormous and is going to play at the highest level, although he might end up hitting for a lower average and swinging and missing more than some are projecting. While the 22-year-old can play passable defense at the hot corner, his athleticism and arm are a better fit for right field, a position most sources seem to agree is Bryant’s long term home. Regardless of where he plays, the bat could make him an all-star, a true 35-plus home run force in the middle of a lineup.

 

Almora is a highly skilled all-around player, with an impact hit tool and the ability to play above-average defense in center. While he lacks graphic tools or middle-of-the-lineup power, the 19-year-old has that rare ability to make the game look easy, both in the field and at the plate. The speed is the only tool that projects to play below average at the major-league level, and even with his advanced feel for the game and instincts, his range is center will be limited by the lack of wheels; despite his quick reactions and almost preternatural feel for tracking balls, his foot speed can’t recover from mistakes like most athletes at the position. Almora is going to hit at every stop, and if he can avoid the injury bug in 2014, he should be able to move quickly, reaching the Double-A level and positioning himself for a major-league opportunity in 2015.

 

Soler has a prototypical right field profile, with the high-powered arm and the enormous raw power, the kind you can’t truly appreciate unless you get to see him rip balls over mountains in batting practice. But the 21-year-old Cuban struggles making in-bat adjustments, and as a result, pitchers with a good plan of attack can eat his lunch. With his type of power, he can punish mistakes and make you pay for improper placement of a fastball, but his recognition skills and aggressive style open him up to sequence and spin, and the inability to make quick adjustments to his approach could spoil his ultimate potential at the plate. If he can stay on the field, Soler should rake in the minors and push himself to the majors by 2015. But the higher-level arms are going to present a problem for him, so he will need to improve his focus and plan of attack at the plate in order to maximize his talent.

 

Edwards is a very legit prospect whose statistical output creates a slightly more promising profile than the scouting reports. On paper, Edwards looks like a frontline arm, and at times, he can flash that sort of future on the mound. But when/if you watch Edwards in person, you can see that his advanced arsenal is simply too good for the level of competition he is facing, and the same curveball that is making A-Ball hitters look foolish is unlikely to encourage the same result from major-league quality bats. This isn’t to take anything away from Edwards, who has one of the easiest releases in the minors, which along with the crisp velocity makes his fastball a potential well above-average offering. The keys for Edwards will be the body and the fastball command, each of which could limit his overall effectiveness in a rotation. While he’s certainly bigger than the listed weight of 155 lbs., the frame itself is very narrow and it raises concerns about potential workload and durability; frontline arms project to log 200-plus innings season after season. The fastball command might end up being an even bigger hurdle, as the ability to spot the fastball will help the already solid secondary stuff play against more advanced bats, the kind that can track a big curveball out of the hand. The end result could be a mid-rotation arm, or perhaps a late-innings reliever if the durability concerns prove to be true. Regardless, Edwards is going to be a major-league quality arm with impact potential, which is a win for everybody involved in the procurement and developmental process.

 

Alcantara would receive more attention in a weaker system, as the 22-year-old infielder has impact tools and could develop into a first-division talent at the major-league level. From the left side, Alcantara is an offensive threat, with bat speed and game power, but he struggles from his weaker right side, as the plane is flatter and the contact not nearly as hard. The speed is a weapon on base and in the field, and with more refinement should give him another above-average tool. A heavy dose of Triple-A secondary stuff will help the five-tool talent refine at the plate, and with any luck, Alcantara could get a major-league taste in 2014. While I’m not a big fan of comps, especially if they are forced, the industry suggested Jose Reyes-lite fits Alcantara very well.

 

Several sources prefer Johnson to Edwards in the Cubs system because of his body and breaking ball, which is one of the better offerings in the entire organization. To really step forward, the 22-year-old righty will need to refine his command, spotting his fastball early and knocking the pins down with the aforementioned curve. The ceiling isn’t frontline, but much like Edwards, the developmental path and projection should provide impact, most likely in the middle of a major-league rotation. Johnson will move up to the Double-A level in 2013, and if the command and changeup continue to improve, he could position himself as a legit major-league rotation option in 2015. I really like this arm.

 

Vogelbach is a natural hitter with near elite raw power, and because of his approach and swing, should bring a healthy chunk of the raw into game action. The downside is that Vogelbach is a big-bodied player who is already viewed as a future designated hitter, so his future home will most likely be with an American League team. I don’t care that Vogelbach is fat or that he is a natural DH; I care if he can crush a baseball, and Vogelbach can absolutely crush baseballs. Talent is talent, regardless of what it looks like in a uniform, and if he continues to rake—like almost every source thinks he will—the Cubs are going to have a valuable commodity to trade when things start to get serious at the major-league level in 2015. This kid can hit and teams will covet his bat.

 

Villanueva gets overlooked in a system with Baez, Bryant, and Olt, but the glove at third is the best in the entire org—and one of the best hot corner profiles in the minors—and the bat is capable of hard contact and some over-the-fence power. While he’s unlikely to hit for a high batting average, especially against quality arm-side stuff, Villanueva has fast hands and a quick bat, and he should be able to find average utility with the hit tool, which will allow his above-average raw power to play in game action. His bat isn’t going to set the world ablaze and single-handedly change the fortunes of the franchise, but he could emerge as the best overall candidate to be the Cubs third baseman of the future, with the type of makeup and work ethic to get the most of his physical gifts and the best glove in the organization. Don’t forget about Villanueva.

 

Candy Candelario gets a lot of love from scouts, as the 20-year-old has serious pop in the bat and could develop into another impact player in a system full of impact players. The defensive profile needs a lot of refinement, and the body could make the task more difficult if he loses sight of it as he continues to mature. But with good pitch recognition skills and a discernable plan of attack at the plate, Candelario can take advantage of opportunities and bring his physical tools into game action. Look for Candelario to continue his surge up prospect lists with a strong 2014 season, where his over-the-fence power will start to play a bigger role in his hype.

[Cubswin11]

Can you post highlights?

 

A scout dropped a Miguel Cabrera ceiling comp.

With the ability to stay at SS.

http://25.media.tumblr.com/4695aeff638daaa3cae8b8ccf516de99/tumblr_muzhuo7k1z1slibiio1_400.gif

[imb]

I can post the entire thing if that's allowed.

 

you can pm it to me

[apete6]

If Baez is even 80% of Miguel Cabrera:

 

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_RgdPozXw7e8/TUiI_Sx82GI/AAAAAAAAAuQ/-g976W9tj1o/s1600/south-park-i-just-came.jpg

[ConstableRabbit]

http://rack.0.mshcdn.com/media/ZgkyMDEzLzA4LzA1Lzc4L3RoZWZyZXNocHJpLmJjYjYxLmdpZgpwCXRodW1iCTg1MHg1OTA-CmUJanBn/3bbc61a2/e62/the-fresh-prince-of-bel-air.jpg

[A New Era]

I see tangled already posted "the year ahead" for the top 10. But I just bought a month just so I could read this and I'm working my way up from #10 to #1 (saving the best for last). But I want to note this awesome snippet (which was posted already) about Dan Vogelbach. And this is the damn EIGHTH best prospect on the Cubs. Sweeeet Jebusss. .

 

The Year Ahead: Vogelbach is a natural hitter with near elite raw power, and because of his approach and swing, should bring a healthy chunk of the raw into game action. The downside is that Vogelbach is a big-bodied player who is already viewed as a future designated hitter, so his future home will most likely be with an American League team. I don’t care that Vogelbach is fat or that he is a natural DH; I care if he can crush a baseball, and Vogelbach can absolutely crush baseballs. Talent is talent, regardless of what it looks like in a uniform, and if he continues to rake—like almost every source thinks he will—the Cubs are going to have a valuable commodity to trade when things start to get serious at the major-league level in 2015. This kid can hit and teams will covet his bat.