NFL coaching carousel/NFL Offseason thread

[Guest]

If KC didn't want to pay that type of guaranteed money (which does seem like market value for a QB of his value but a tough price tag in a capped league), they could have easily drafted Teddy Bridgewater.

[treebird]

If KC didn't want to pay that type of guaranteed money (which does seem like market value for a QB of his value but a tough price tag in a capped league), they could have easily drafted Teddy Bridgewater.

 

this was literally my first thought when i saw the contract details. i understand that this is what you have to pay to keep a guy like smith around; i do not understand why you'd rather do that than grab bridgewater at the end of the first round and give him a year to ease in.

[Guest]

It goes back to the trade to get Smith. They used last year's 2nd rounder and then after how well last season went they also lost this year's 2nd rounder just for the right to have Smith. Call it a bad trade all you want, but given those circumstances it's probably not a great idea to then spend another 1st rounder on grooming another QB who might be Aaron Rodgers, might be Alex Smith, or might be Blaine Gabbert, but definitely won't be starting now. While Smith's pay probably eclipses his production, I think he's also undersold analytically because of the orientation of that offense and his ability to avoid turnovers(he throws a pick every 70 passes or so).

[dew1679666265]

It goes back to the trade to get Smith. They used last year's 2nd rounder and then after how well last season went they also lost this year's 2nd rounder just for the right to have Smith. Call it a bad trade all you want, but given those circumstances it's probably not a great idea to then spend another 1st rounder on grooming another QB who might be Aaron Rodgers, might be Alex Smith, or might be Blaine Gabbert, but definitely won't be starting now. While Smith's pay probably eclipses his production, I think he's also undersold analytically because of the orientation of that offense and his ability to avoid turnovers(he throws a pick every 70 passes or so).

 

He was 16th in DYAR and 14th in DVOA with San Francisco in 2011, so they thought he was better but still no better than averagish then. Basically, the only real positive I'm seeing for him is that he doesn't screw up and that just doesn't cut it consistently in this offense-driven league today.

 

It was a bad trade to bring him in and then they compounded that with overpaying him. It probably would have been better to just admit the original mistake, trust your scouts and take the best QB available this past year.

[Guest]

They went 11-5 with him as a starter and scored the 6th most points in the NFL. Say what you want about his limitations, but it undoubtedly worked.

[dew1679666265]

They went 11-5 with him as a starter and scored the 6th most points in the NFL. Say what you want about his limitations, but it undoubtedly worked.

 

Having one of the best RBs in the league and an insanely good defense meant a ton more than Smith. Especially since KC's passing offense ranked 24th in the league last year and their rushing offense was 10th (both based on yards). Based on TDs, their passing offense was 15th and their rushing offense was 5th.

[Guest]

They went 11-5 with him as a starter and scored the 6th most points in the NFL. Say what you want about his limitations, but it undoubtedly worked.

 

Having one of the best RBs in the league and an insanely good defense meant a ton more than Smith. Especially since KC's passing offense ranked 24th in the league last year and their rushing offense was 10th (both based on yards). Based on TDs, their passing offense was 15th and their rushing offense was 5th.

 

No one ever said Smith was the best player on the field. That's part of the point. Smith's turnover avoidance and a strong running game keep fields long for the defense, and they along with really good special teams minimize the work the offense has to do to score. Having a strong offensive coach to top it all off helps too. Quarterback is the most important position on the field, but it doesn't have to be the main reason you win games. The Chiefs overpaid by a few million so they can have stability at that crucial spot and let all the other talent on the team win them games. It's not ideal, but it's hardly a mistake considering their success thus far and the uncertainty(and therefore high potential for disaster) that comes with breaking in a new QB.

[dew1679666265]

No one ever said Smith was the best player on the field. That's part of the point. Smith's turnover avoidance and a strong running game keep fields long for the defense, and they along with really good special teams minimize the work the offense has to do to score. Having a strong offensive coach to top it all off helps too. Quarterback is the most important position on the field, but it doesn't have to be the main reason you win games. The Chiefs overpaid by a few million so they can have stability at that crucial spot and let all the other talent on the team win them games. It's not ideal, but it's hardly a mistake considering their success thus far and the uncertainty(and therefore high potential for disaster) that comes with breaking in a new QB.

 

It's not just that QB has not been the primary means of winning games, it's that it's been relatively insignificant in the whole process. They're close to the bottom of the league in moving the ball through the air and right in the middle of the pack scoring through the air.

 

What they've done is overpay by a few million to lock up a limit to the offense. If either the defense or Charles regresses at all this year or next (both very possible), they can't turn to the QB to do more because there's a limit to Smith's ability. It's true that they've got stability, but that goes both ways - he's not likely to implode, but he can't do any more than be a support player. That's fine if all goes well, but it's not something I'm going to overpay for.

[Guest]

It's a different set of risks. You can pay what you paid Smith and go the certainty route, or you can hope that you hit it big in the draft. There's been 25 QBs taken in the Top 3 rounds the last 5 years. 7 were better than 2013 Smith in DYAR, and 4 of those 7 were 1-1 picks. I don't think you can really blame the Chiefs for continuing down the path of what has worked so far, especially given that they don't have an abundance of draft assets and that Smith may actually have a little development left with another year of playing full time and in the same system(December was his best split and he was terrific in the playoff game). There's certainly more than one way to go about it, I just think pre-ordaining the decision as a screw-up is too much.

[dew1679666265]

It's a different set of risks. You can pay what you paid Smith and go the certainty route, or you can hope that you hit it big in the draft. There's been 25 QBs taken in the Top 3 rounds the last 5 years. 7 were better than 2013 Smith in DYAR, and 4 of those 7 were 1-1 picks. I don't think you can really blame the Chiefs for continuing down the path of what has worked so far, especially given that they don't have an abundance of draft assets and that Smith may actually have a little development left with another year of playing full time and in the same system(December was his best split and he was terrific in the playoff game). There's certainly more than one way to go about it, I just think pre-ordaining the decision as a screw-up is too much.

 

Is there that much more risk by drafting a young QB last year? Let's say you take Bridgewater and then let Smith play out the stretch this year as you groom the rookie. After the season, you still have the opportunity to negotiate with Smith and can even use the rookie as leverage to pay him less. If you feel good about the rookie, let Smith walk.

 

Having a great offensive coach is all the more reason to believe that you can develop a young QB.

[Guest]

Is there that much more risk by drafting a young QB last year? Let's say you take Bridgewater and then let Smith play out the stretch this year as you groom the rookie. After the season, you still have the opportunity to negotiate with Smith and can even use the rookie as leverage to pay him less. If you feel good about the rookie, let Smith walk.

 

Having a great offensive coach is all the more reason to believe that you can develop a young QB.

 

If you're drafting a QB this year you're either using your only pick in the first two rounds on one or giving up multiple picks to try and trade back up to get a QB. The Chiefs were good last year, but using up assets like that to get a guy who will have no impact on this year's team is a large opportunity cost. Especially for something like a QB that's not at the top of the draft, which have pretty horrible track records.

[dew1679666265]

If you're drafting a QB this year you're either using your only pick in the first two rounds on one or giving up multiple picks to try and trade back up to get a QB. The Chiefs were good last year, but using up assets like that to get a guy who will have no impact on this year's team is a large opportunity cost. Especially for something like a QB that's not at the top of the draft, which have pretty horrible track records.

 

If we're only looking at this year, how much impact will Dee Ford have without starting? The opportunity cost isn't between huge impact and no impact, it's between what impact Ford has and what impact the QB may have (likely very little this year). It would appear he was drafted as a long term option behind Hali, which is exactly what the QB would be.

 

If we're looking at long term, there's little chance there would be an opportunity cost unless the QB busted. But that's a possibility - and a strong one - with anybody you draft.

[dawson1989]

Let's not forget Smith has value from his running ability as well. KC finally used it last season, the first team to do so since he was in college.

[Banedon]

Man, MMQB loves Tampa this year.

 

Peter King: Tampa Bay. The Bucs were the best bad 2013 team I saw of the 27 I saw in person on my training camp trip this summer. Lovie Smith has three keystone players at crucial positions on his defense, and a quarterback who’s better than people think in Josh McCown.

 

http://mmqb.si.com/2014/09/02/nfl-2014-season-preview-extravaganza-the-mmqb-predictions/