Week 11 - Bears (5-4) vs Baltimore (4-5) - 12:00 PM, CBS

[rawaction]

Sam Hurd just got 15 years.

[Guest]

And they signed some cat with a super bowl ring by the name of Derrick Martin. Don't get all excited and pass out, though. He replaces Tillman on the roster.

[Thed Hoyerstein]

And they signed some cat with a super bowl ring by the name of Derrick Martin. Don't get all excited and pass out, though. He replaces Tillman on the roster.

 

He has a super bowl ring, so he must be an elite safety.

[Banedon]

Jay at practice today...

 

http://i.imgur.com/ZwuBB8I.jpg

[JonJayCutler]

Weather will be fun for this one. Forecasting severe t-storms and 30 mph winds.

[Thed Hoyerstein]

Weather will be fun for this one. Forecasting severe t-storms and 30 mph winds.

 

 

BEEAAARRRSSSSS WEAAAATTTHHHEEERRRR DDDEERRRRPPPPPP

 

{New England wins 34-7}

[tfarks]

Weather will be fun for this one. Forecasting severe t-storms and 30 mph winds.

 

This is only because I'm making the trip up for my 1st ever Bears regular season game.

[Guest]

@mikecwright: Mannelly and McClellin are doubtful. Mills probable. Martellus Bennett questionable.

[UMFan83]

Weather will be fun for this one. Forecasting severe t-storms and 30 mph winds.

 

At least it will be in the upper 60s

[UMFan83]

Jaws basically saying: Don't sign Cutler to a long term contract

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9980145/nfl-jay-cutler-does-not-deserve-massive-multi-year-contract-upcoming-offseason

 

In the National Football League, we've seen plenty of turmoil at the quarterback position this season. Already, 46 different QBs have started games; that's just one shy of last year's total, and we've got seven weeks to go. But one of the most significant situations, in my mind, is the injury to Jay Cutler in Chicago. Not so much because of the ramifications for the Bears' playoff chances, but because of the potential impact on Cutler's future with the team.

 

Cutler's contract expires at the end of the season, meaning this year has been something of a "show me" season for the quarterback in order to earn a contract on par with the NFL's other franchise passers. Often, those deals come in around the $100 million range. Yes, the Bears have the option of giving Cutler the franchise tag, which means a one-year deal. Based on what I've seen from Cutler this season, I simply don't think he's earned a longer deal, and I would not sign him to a big contract this offseason.

 

 

That doesn't mean the Bears won't sign him.

 

Nor does it make Cutler a "bad" quarterback. But what it does mean is that I've seen enough warning signs from Cutler's play that it would scare me away from a long-term, big-money investment.

 

Let's break it down.

 

The virtues

In terms of pure arm talent, there may not be a better quarterback in the NFL than Cutler.

 

Take that first-quarter touchdown pass to Brandon Marshall against the Detroit Lions on Sunday. That was as pretty a throw as you'll see. I'd say there are only a handful of quarterbacks who can make that throw. If you read my column regularly, you'll know I believe a top-flight quarterback has to be able to attack a defense on all three levels. Cutler has the ability to do just that. This season he's 4-of-9 on passes thrown 30-plus yards in the air. Those are the big plays. He's hitting on almost half of those strikes, and he'll continue to hit them as long as he has the weapons to target. That will keep defensive coordinators concerned about the deep ball and keep safeties from creeping up to the line of scrimmage to challenge running back Matt Forte. Cutler can make throws to every level, and to the perimeters.

 

Now, will we get to see more of the "good" Cutler this season? He is in a hard cast to support his ankle, and the time frame for a potential return is a little cloudy. Josh McCown has filled in competently in Cutler's absence, and if McCown continues to succeed in that replacement role, it will draw even more scrutiny regarding Cutler's future. That's especially true if we continue to notice the absence of some of the recurring troubles that have plagued Cutler to this point in his career as we watch McCown drive the Bears' offense.

 

The vices

Since entering the league in 2006, Cutler has yet to record a season in which he's put up a better touchdown-to-interception ratio than 1.86; that was his first season in Denver, when he played just five games. His best season for scoring -- 27 touchdowns in 2009 -- was also pockmarked by picks, with 26.

 

He has averaged 0.6 fumbles per game, a rate that trails only Michael Vick among regular starting quarterbacks with more than three full seasons of experience. His career QBR is 55.7, and he's topped that mark only twice since coming to Chicago, including his mark of 63.2 through Week 10 this season.

 

I believe many of these shortcomings are the symptoms of what I see on the game film: inconsistent mechanics.

 

Yes, the Bears have had some poor offensive-line play the past few seasons, but the protection has been above average this season and I'm still seeing poor mechanics from Cutler. Even when that offensive line sets him up with a clean cradle with which to work, he's not setting his feet, he's making poor reads, he's trying to squeeze the ball into nonexistent windows, and he's sometimes delivering the ball from awkward angles when he doesn't have to. Those are not the hallmarks of a franchise quarterback. Also, Cutler continues to hold the ball low, leaving it vulnerable for strips.

 

The issue is that we're no longer talking about things he can learn. He's 30 years old, in his eighth season with over 100 games to his name. He's played for some very good coaches. At what point do we stop saying, "He's got to show me more," and close the book on him, knowing that for better and worse this is Jay Cutler?

 

This season

The conditions improved for Cutler over the offseason. As noted, the line play has improved after adding draft picks Kyle Long and Jordan Mills, along with free-agent signing Jermon Bushrod. Chicago gave him another big target in tight end Martellus Bennett, and Alshon Jeffery has emerged as a very good No. 2 receiver across from Marshall. Forte is a solid pass-catcher out of the backfield and creates yards after the catch. Add in the coaching of QB specialist and head coach Marc Trestman, and there's not much more Cutler could ask for.

 

Yes, Cutler's QBR is higher than it's been since 2008, his final season in Denver. But compare that to McCown's QBR, which is at 87.0 after his relief work. The veteran backup has thrown four touchdowns and no interceptions, he hasn't fumbled, and he's averaging 7.69 yards per completion in his three games spelling Cutler.

 

In terms of rate-based statistics, the only edge Cutler holds over McCown this season is in completion percentage: 63.0 to 60.0. So how much is Cutler carrying the offense and how much is the offense carrying Cutler? That's the question the Bears' front office is going to have to answer this offseason.

 

The future

As I mentioned earlier, the numbers and the evidence working against Cutler don't paint him as a bad quarterback. But his inconsistent play and lack of dominance don't suggest he's a championship-caliber quarterback, either. And that's what I'm looking for if I'm running a team.

 

When I evaluate QBs for my quarterly Big Board, I'm looking for the quarterback who is going to go win a Super Bowl. That's admittedly a high standard, but I can guarantee that's exactly what the NFL's coaches and front offices are looking for, as well. No one's saying, "I want a QB who can lock down that second wild card!"

 

Of course, the decision on Cutler won't be made with that degree of absolutism. If you let him go, you have to replace him. And as we're seeing around the league right now, that's easier said than done. While the draft may offer some good options this spring, there are no guarantees. And if you go the free-agent route, your options include Vick, Chad Henne, Matt Cassel, Josh Freeman, Kellen Clemens, Matt Flynn and Rex Grossman. Is there a clear upgrade there?

 

The Bears can use the franchise tag on Cutler, and that may be the route they choose. That would give them another year, with the option of drafting another QB and evaluating him for a season while they see if Cutler can show them more. From my perspective, I haven't seen enough to warrant a big-money commitment. If it's me making the call, I'm not handing Cutler a big contract this offseason.

[rawaction]

Yes, the Bears have had a terrible offensive line until this year. Yes, he's had nobody to throw to until this year. Yes, he's doing well now that he has an OL and weapons. But Jay Cutler isn't good enough because he doesn't set his feet!

 

Makes no sense. Cutler's mechanics are the dumbest thing people fret over. Who the F cares? Even if he's throwing INTs off his back foot, who cares? His INTs aren't astronomical or killing the team (though arguable he could have lost both Detroit games due to INTs).

[Guest]

Yeah, McCown has nice stats - against shoddy pass defenses like Washington and Green Bay. I guess Jaws didn't notice the quality of defenses in his film sessions.

[Splendid Splinter]

Jaws basically saying: Don't sign Cutler to a long term contract

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9980145/nfl-jay-cutler-does-not-deserve-massive-multi-year-contract-upcoming-offseason

 

The future

As I mentioned earlier, the numbers and the evidence working against Cutler don't paint him as a bad quarterback. But his inconsistent play and lack of dominance don't suggest he's a championship-caliber quarterback, either. And that's what I'm looking for if I'm running a team.

 

When I evaluate QBs for my quarterly Big Board, I'm looking for the quarterback who is going to go win a Super Bowl. That's admittedly a high standard, but I can guarantee that's exactly what the NFL's coaches and front offices are looking for, as well. No one's saying, "I want a QB who can lock down that second wild card!"

 

 

I don't get this part. Are Eli/Flacco really "championship-caliber QB"? Esp. before they won their SB. If so, then Cutler "can be" as well. This really grind my gears. Of course every coaches/FOs are looking for "championship-caliber QBs". They're also looking for "championship-caliber player" at every other position. I wouldn't mind a QB who can "lock down that 2nd wild card" if I don't have an elite QB. Just get to the playoffs and you got a chance. Eli/Rodgers won their SB by getting that last wild card.

 

If you don't want to sign him because inconsistent play/lack of dominance/horrible mechanics/injuries/etc, then ok. I get that reasoning. There's no need for this "not a championship-caliber QB" crap. That phrase to me is like "clutch" in baseball or "but he's a winner" in any sports. Heck Peyton is a championship caliber QB and it took him 9 years to get to the first and only SB win and he practically been in the playoffs every year of his career. Brees went in his 9th season. Rodgers been there once so far. Brady and Big Ben are the only active "starting" QBs who been to the SBs more than twice.

 

I wanna know what Jaws would do if he's Emery. He said Cutler shouldn't get a long term contract. Didn't say much about franchise tag and I really don't think he would give Cutler ~19 mil on 1 yr deal (which is a big contract in itself since it's all guaranteed) when you got about ~45 mil cap space and you got to sign about 20-25 players. Said there's no guarantees for the draft although there's "some good options" and there's no clear upgrade in FA. What exactly is left? Try to sign him to a 2-3 year deal?

[pitchcs]

Weather will be fun for this one. Forecasting severe t-storms and 30 mph winds.

 

I'm basically giving away my tickets.

[rawaction]

Interesting thought I read on another board. Wonder if the Bears are thinking of pulling off another trade for a QB. The usual suspects of Nick Foles (great this year, but is he Chip's guy?), Ryan Mallett, and Kirk Cousins. None of them are as good as Cutler, but none will require a 17mil/year contract just yet. All seem like decent fits for the offense.

 

I think Foles would require a 2nd and more the way he's playing. The other 2 maybe a 3rd and more. If u are going to drafting a QB in one of those rounds, it might make sense.

[Butterscup1679666578]

if the bears trade for ryan mallett or kirk cousins i'll anxiously await for the next front office regime to come in 2-3 years.

[USSoccer]

Only a stupid front office would spend draft picks they need to fill defensive holes for Ryan Mallet.

 

Worst case scenario is the franchise tag. It buys them another year and allows them to draft at need positions.

[Butterscup1679666578]

Seriously, if the Bears are going to wipe their hands clean of Cutler and spend a couple years rebuilding, I'd rather they do it with a rookie QB in the first round than a guy who will be out of the NFL soon.

[Formerly Snayke]

Jaws's analysis completely ignores the reality of the quarterback position right now. Yes, someone cheaper could very well come along and provide something similar to Cutler, but if that guy performs capably then he's going to be next in line for a big contract. Does a team just keep shuffling in cost-friendly quarterbacks until they stumble upon Russell Wilson in the third round?

 

Also, the "that's not the arm angle of a franchise QB!" is just about the stupidest [expletive] argument.

[Rex Buckingham]

Since 2010, in games in which Cutler plays the whole game (takes out losses to NYG in '10, HOU in '12, WAS and DET in '13) the Bears are 31-15. so, even including those games - other than DET he missed half or more of the game, his record in his last 50 Bears starts is 31-19, good for a winning percentage of .620, which means that with Cutler playing, the Bears have played at a 10-win pace for the last 3+ seasons

 

eta: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CutlJa00/gamelog/

 

Also, yes of course I realize that the D has played a huge role in past years, and citing wins by a QB is only marginally better than citing wins for a SP, but still: Forget you Jaws.

[Formerly Snayke]

Also, yes of course I realize that the D has played a huge role in past years, and citing wins by a QB is only marginally better than citing wins for a SP, but still: Forget you Jaws.

 

Agreed. I think people can safely say that Cutler has had a big part of the Bears winning. It's not like they had the 2000 Ravens defense for those seasons, so acting like Chicago would be doomed by paying him is way off the mark. At some point, a team is going to have to pay its quarterback, even if that guy is second-tier, a lot of money.

[CubColtPacer]

Also, yes of course I realize that the D has played a huge role in past years, and citing wins by a QB is only marginally better than citing wins for a SP, but still: Forget you Jaws.

 

Agreed. I think people can safely say that Cutler has had a big part of the Bears winning. It's not like they had the 2000 Ravens defense for those seasons, so acting like Chicago would be doomed by paying him is way off the mark. At some point, a team is going to have to pay its quarterback, even if that guy is second-tier, a lot of money.

 

As more new rookie scale QB's come into the league, I'm not sure that's true anymore. Look at many of the QB's that would fit Cutler's general profile of non-elite productive QB who's now getting paid: Eli, Matt Ryan, Flacco, Roethlisberger, Rivers. None of those teams have a winning record, and I would argue that's partially because in just about every one of those cases their QB is getting overpaid. Romo is another example and has the best record, but it's still a 5-5 team, and they've been playing with fire with their future cap to get that good.

 

If you look at the teams with winning records, you can sort of divide them into two tiers. The ones with elite QB's: Denver, New Orleans, New England, Green Bay. And then the ones with cheap QB's: Seattle, San Francisco, Indianapolis, Carolina, Cincinnati.

 

Right now there are only three teams who don't fit that mold. Kansas City, where Alex Smith makes less than the QB's named above and the Chiefs have lots of advantages elsewhere. Detroit, where Stafford becomes elite only because of his super elite receiver. And then Chicago, who is 5-4 with Cutler sort of getting paid.

 

I think you'll see that trend continuing unless the contracts for the mid-tier QB's become more reasonable. Right now agents are able to play off the fear that comes with QB uncertainty to get big contracts for all these guys, and it's just not the same anymore now that the market has changed. The rookies are making so much less now that their teams have a huge advantage in roster construction until they get paid.

[rawaction]

Good post, CCP. That's part of what worries me that they'll just let Cutler walk. The Bears don't want to end up like Pit, NYG, Balt and the other cautionary tales out there of overpaying QBs. Those teams have the luxury of a ring (or 2) to fall back on. But they also are teams that don't have a bunch of young talent anymore. The Ravens already lost everyone. The Giants are going to lose Nicks and soon have to replace aging players on D and the OL. Steelers are also old on D and have drafted poorly in recent years.

 

Emery has been said to have a "moneyball" mentality, so getting a cheaper QB may be the way he's leaning. Paying Cutler 15+ mil when u have 25 other FAs on the roster may not be an ideal situation. A bad defense that is aging or injured at nearly every spot, needs to almost be completely retooled.

 

This has become the worst case scenario of letting your QB remain unsigned. Flacco is obviously the best case, though the Ravens may be paying for that.

[Have a seat, Neifi]

So apparently Jordan Mills is terrible at pass blocking and has been for quite some time now:

 

Elvis Dumervil Vs. Jordan Mills

 

This matchup could get ugly as our lowest-graded pass blocking tackle meets our highest-graded pass rushing 3-4 outside linebacker. Elvis Dumervil is in the midst of his best season since 2009 where he recorded 17 sacks. Well, this year he’s on pace for only 16 but he’s doing it in far fewer snaps. The eighth-year linebacker plays mostly in sub-packages and likely passing situations and when he gets a chance to pin his ears back and attack the quarterback he’s been nearly unstoppable. Dumervil has 39 pressures in 204 pass rushing snaps this season, that’s four more pressures than Terrell Suggs in 74 fewer pass rushing snaps. Dumervil’s 15.4 Pass Rushing Productivity leads all 3-4 outside linebackers this season.

 

The Bears’ rookie right tackle Jordan Mills is at the complete opposite end of the spectrum. His Pass Blocking Efficiency rating is dead last among tackles at 88.7 and he’s allowed 54 pressures in 363 pass blocking snaps. His performance has been eerily reminiscent of former Bears tackle J’Marcus Webb. Both were late round selections out of small schools (Mills from LA Tech and Webb from West Texas A&M) and both were thrust into the starting lineup far before they were ready (Webb was the second-lowest graded tackle his rookie year of 2010). After the first game of the season, Mills has allowed at least four pressures each week with a high mark of 11 against the Packers. He’ll see a large dose of two of the game’s best on Sunday and if he doesn’t get some help it could spell disaster for the Bears.

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/11/15/3tfo-ravens-bears-week-11/

[Formerly Snayke]

As more new rookie scale QB's come into the league, I'm not sure that's true anymore. Look at many of the QB's that would fit Cutler's general profile of non-elite productive QB who's now getting paid: Eli, Matt Ryan, Flacco, Roethlisberger, Rivers. None of those teams have a winning record, and I would argue that's partially because in just about every one of those cases their QB is getting overpaid. Romo is another example and has the best record, but it's still a 5-5 team, and they've been playing with fire with their future cap to get that good.

 

Yeah, there's probably a case to be made that teams are somewhat hamstrung by those contracts, but the rookie scale only gives cap relief for about four years. If the Bears decide to let Cutler walk because they think Generic 3rd Round Quarterback can sort of approximate Cutler, they are probably going to miss and wind up starting over in 2-3 seasons. Finding just a second-tier quarterback is tough on its own, so trying to finesse the position with cost-efficiency until Tom Brady falls into your lap seems like a risky plan.