Yankees Sign Masahiro Tanaka

[Sammy Sofa]

Guys, it was just a for instance.

[neely crenshaw]

I'm pretty sure if we had an american 25 year old in AAA, who threw low 90's and was considered a possible #2 as his high end- no one would be clamoring to spend 100 mil to get him.

 

 

This is seriously the worst analogy ever. Tanaka is nothing like a 25 yr old at AAA. He's a guy who has consistently gotten out hitters at a level much higher than AAA (see LaHair, Brian). It may not be ML equivalent, but it's a hell of a lot more indicative of future performance than AAA and with a much longer track record of doing it than anyone at AAA has.

 

Nevermind the fact that if a pitcher has #2 starter upside and he's still being kept in AAA at the age of 25, the front office should be eradicated.

 

Where were Wood and Samardzija at when they were 25?.....spending time in AAA. Blow up this front office!

[neely crenshaw]

I guess I'll leave it like this. If we are going to spend a ton of money and get what we need, then I say go for it. If we are as cash restricted as it appears, I can't see spending all of it on just this one guy as a good move.

 

Realistically we could sign him and he is everything we hoped for and we still aren't much closer to competing without a ton of offensive players stepping up their game.

[Clem Fandango]

I'm pretty sure if we had an american 25 year old in AAA, who threw low 90's and was considered a possible #2 as his high end- no one would be clamoring to spend 100 mil to get him.

 

 

This is seriously the worst analogy ever. Tanaka is nothing like a 25 yr old at AAA. He's a guy who has consistently gotten out hitters at a level much higher than AAA (see LaHair, Brian). It may not be ML equivalent, but it's a hell of a lot more indicative of future performance than AAA and with a much longer track record of doing it than anyone at AAA has.

 

Nevermind the fact that if a pitcher has #2 starter upside and he's still being kept in AAA at the age of 25, the front office should be eradicated.

 

Where were Wood and Samardzija at when they were 25?.....spending time in AAA. Blow up this front office!

 

1) Neither of them showed #2 starter potential in the minors, they developed into it at the major league level.

 

2) Samardzija was in AAA at 25 with a 4.37 ERA (4.28 FIP) splitting time between starter and reliever because the old regime didn't know what the hell to do with him it seemed.

 

3) Wood was in AAA at 25 for all of 7 games with a 4.57 ERA (3.76 FIP) and was called up out of necessity because a) Volstad was big stinky piece of [expletive] and had injury issues and b) Garza went down with an injury around the time Volstad returned.

 

4) If a pitcher is showing #2 starter potential at AAA chances are his his numbers and peripherals are going to suggest just that and in that situation you do NOT leave someone down there stewing in the minors until the age of 25 if he got there at a younger age. Wood and Samardzija's were nowhere close to suggesting that. They had back end rotation/long reliever stamped all over them. Samardzija was looking more like a future closer after his first successful stint in the majors.

 

Tanaka is polished and ready for the majors. He has a skillset teams desire to have in their rotation. And all he costs is money. He's valuable. If you have someone in the system with the same skillset and age, chances are they're already in your rotation.

[Guest]

Yea, a potential #2 starter is going to blow away competition at every level in the minors.

[Guest]

More on the potential changes to the posting system: http://www.newsday.com/sports/columnists/david-lennon/sources-major-changes-coming-to-japanese-player-posting-system-1.6075431

[Rob]

Yea, a potential #2 starter is going to blow away competition at every level in the minors.

 

Not necessarily. There are a lot of different development paths.

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=randy-johnson

[Clem Fandango]

Yea, a potential #2 starter is going to blow away competition at every level in the minors.

 

Not necessarily. There are a lot of different development paths.

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=randy-johnson

 

The Baseball Cube? That still exists?

[neely crenshaw]

So we signed Samardzija to a large deal out of college because we thought he might be a long reliever?

No, he was signed as a prospect because he threw 99 and they thought he had the potential to have top end stuff.

and Wood was drafted 6th overall to be a loogy?

Both we hoped to be TOR guys as prospects.

Most here feel Shark is a potential number1, and Wood has been our best this season. They are 28 and 26 respectively. We certainly want to re-sign them, but I haven't heard anyone bounce around a 100mil for either of them. It seems many of you are letting the unknown shine brighter than the known. As long as you don't know what someone brings for sure, you can pretend in your mind that everything is perfect with it.

Is there anything in the scouting report that says Tanaka will vastly outperform Wood's 3.23era?

 

Anyway, say we sign him to whatever we need to and he reaches all expectations. He comes in, and brings a low .3.00 era and that is our only move...where would we be? pretty much the same place as this year. We had 2 pitchers throw this well this spring -(feldman and garza) and we were still 12 games under when they were traded. We need a lot of help, and no matter what you say we can not bank on players progressing as the only other improvement.

If we sign him great, but if it keeps us from signing much else it is a huge gamble and then I am not for it at all.

Edited September 16, 2013 by neely crenshaw

[RammyFanny]

Yea, a potential #2 starter is going to blow away competition at every level in the minors.

 

Not necessarily. There are a lot of different development paths.

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=randy-johnson

 

The Baseball Cube? That still exists?

It's useful for quickly comparing/analyzing college statistics of current major / minor leaguers if you're into that sort of thing. Otherwise, the other two work better.

[mul21]

So we signed Samardzija to a large deal out of college because we thought he might be a long reliever?

No, he was signed as a prospect because he threw 99 and they thought he had the potential to have top end stuff.

and Wood was drafted 6th overall to be a loogy?

Both we hoped to be TOR guys as prospects.

 

Anyway, say we sign him to whatever we need to and he reaches all expectations. He comes in, and brings a low .3.00 era and that is our only move...where would we be? pretty much the same place as this year. We had 2 pitchers throw this well this spring -(feldman and garza) and we were still 12 games under when they were traded. We need a lot of help, and no matter what you say we can not bank on players progressing as the only other improvement.

If we sign him great, but if it keeps us from signing much else it is a huge gamble and then I am not for it at all.

 

You realize you're killing your own arguments here right? Wood didn't come up in the Cubs system and was a fringy 4-5 type guy when we got him. Samardzija was a guy with a live arm and no experience when he was drafted and there was hope he could become a useful arm. He got that contract because if they didn't pay him, he would be playing in the NFL right now.

 

Also, go take a look at the date of Garza's first start and then tell me he was pitching well this spring. I'll help: he started 3 games and pitched 16 innings before June 1st.

[neely crenshaw]

We are talking about a prospect- wood, samardzija or tanaka being seen as #2 or TOR type of guy. It doesn't matter what they were thought of when we got them, They both were thought to have TOR potential as prospects and they were both in the minors at 25.They weren't in the minors because they lost their potential, they were in the minors because they were still developing. That was only a reaction to the post that said if a guy had potential to be a #2 pitcher, and was still in the minors at 25, the front office should be blown up.

Samardzija was certainly highly thought of prospect who had big time stuff, but was still a work in progress and still working in the minors at 25. Wood was the same, I would venture to say that either is still thought to be a potential #2, and we certainly have toyed with the idea that Shark is a future #1.

Rather than use the 25 year old in AAA, I'll say this why don't we hear anyone calling for us to give either Wood or Samardzija a 100 mil? Which is at least in the neighborhood of what it will cost to sign Tanaka.

Tanaka is talented and has success in japan BUT is not viewed as the prospect nor the finished pitcher that Darvish was. There are worries about his fastball and his lack of dominance at times. He is viewed as a POTENTIAL #2 in Mlb. He has never thrown a pitch here, you have no real idea how he will fare, my guess would be he'll be ok, but I don't know that he'll be great. Yet, we are talking about throwing huge money at him based on hoping he'll be very good. It just seems odd that we will jump at the chance to spend 100 mil on an unknown but would not even consider spending it on 2 guys we have now, that have already shown that they can have success in this league.

I am not saying don't sign him, I simply think that with the way it seems our FO is spending money(or not spending money), it seems like a reach to spend that much on 1 player that may not even change a thing on your team.

[Clem Fandango]

We are talking about a prospect- wood, samardzija or tanaka being seen as #2 or TOR type of guy. It doesn't matter what they were thought of when we got them, They both were thought to have TOR potential as prospects and they were both in the minors at 25.They weren't in the minors because they lost their potential, they were in the minors because they were still developing. That was only a reaction to the post that said if a guy had potential to be a #2 pitcher, and was still in the minors at 25, the front office should be blown up.

 

Except Samardzija and Wood weren't even considered prospects at the age of 25.

 

If you have a pitching prospect... who is a consensus top of the rotation arm... coming up through your system... and he's not brought up to the major leagues AT ALL despite showing he has the ability to be successful... and he's left in the minors until he's 25 years old... something is not right with your front office.

 

Samardzija and Wood were brought up before they were 25 and lost their prospect status. You are cherry picking players to prove your point when I'm very clearly talking about a Top 100 type pitcher who is considered a Top 100 type throughout his minors career and then never brought to the majors before the age of 25. THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN. And if it does, the pitcher probably doesn't pan out too well. It's a waste of value to do that.

 

You said no one would pay $100 million for a 25 year old AAA pitcher with TOR potential. You're right, because they usually don't exist because they're already in the majors, and if they do they probably are covered in warts at that point and have questions about their ability to stick in a rotation.

 

There are a few 25 year old TOR types in the majors right now... Clayton Kershaw, Mat Latos, Jhoulys Chacin, Mike Minor. These were all guys with Top 100 pedigress who made it to the majors BEFORE they were 25. If you left these guys in AAA until this year without calling them up, you'd be fired.

[davell]

Neely, just curious if you have any clue as to how arbitration works? Actually, don't bother answering, because it's obviously no. Shark is making. 2.64 mill right now and has 2 arb years left. Wood hits arb for the 1st time this offseason. The object of signing guys still in the arbitration process to long term deals is to give them security and to get the team a discount. If those two were FA, they'd get a lot more than what they can right now in their current position.

[Guest]

the baseball cube is still the quickest

[Sammy Sofa]

and Wood was drafted 6th overall to be a loogy?

 

Travis Wood was drafted in the 2nd round.

[Guest]

and Wood was drafted 6th overall to be a loogy?

 

Travis Wood was drafted in the 2nd round.

If he was thinking Kerry Wood, that was the #4 pick.

[Sammy Sofa]

and Wood was drafted 6th overall to be a loogy?

 

Travis Wood was drafted in the 2nd round.

If he was thinking Kerry Wood, that was the #4 pick.

 

That's what I thought he meant at first, too, but the loogy comment makes me think he must mean Wood or he's just REALLY confused.

[Guest]

and Wood was drafted 6th overall to be a loogy?

 

Travis Wood was drafted in the 2nd round.

If he was thinking Kerry Wood, that was the #4 pick.

 

That's what I thought he meant at first, too, but the loogy comment makes me think he must mean Wood or he's just REALLY confused.

Most likely explanation...

[neely crenshaw]

No I miss read wikipedia, which instead of writing it in a normal way like...drafted with 20th pick in the 2nd round, wrote it..he was drafted sixtieth...which I miss read as sixth in my haste.

Either way 2nd round out of high school is hardly dog meat, and surely he was still highly thought of to go that high.

[Sammy Sofa]

Mmmmm, dog meat.

[neely crenshaw]

Neely, just curious if you have any clue as to how arbitration works? Actually, don't bother answering, because it's obviously no. Shark is making. 2.64 mill right now and has 2 arb years left. Wood hits arb for the 1st time this offseason. The object of signing guys still in the arbitration process to long term deals is to give them security and to get the team a discount. If those two were FA, they'd get a lot more than what they can right now in their current position.

 

Jesus, Samardzija and Wood were just used because of being here and we know them,it has nothing to do with actually re-signing them. The point was we are clamoring to spend 100 mil on a 25year old who has never pitched in the major leagues, who has had success in japan but scouts have questions about how his game translates to mlb. Several times I have seen it mentioned he has the POTENTIAL to be a number 2 starter.

How about this, I don't remember anyone bitching because we did not offer 100 mil to Sanchez. A guy who at 28 was far more proven and probably will outperform Tanaka. We just fall in love with the unknown especially when we are spending other people's money. It does not appear we have much money to spend. With that in mind, we have so many holes to fill, throwing all of it at one guy with a mixed idea of what we are getting is a gamble.

I' m sure you guys are right and he is all we need to become a real contender pretty much like our bullpen was so much better this year because we signed fujikawa.

[Guest]

Neely, just curious if you have any clue as to how arbitration works? Actually, don't bother answering, because it's obviously no. Shark is making. 2.64 mill right now and has 2 arb years left. Wood hits arb for the 1st time this offseason. The object of signing guys still in the arbitration process to long term deals is to give them security and to get the team a discount. If those two were FA, they'd get a lot more than what they can right now in their current position.

 

Jesus, Samardzija and Wood were just used because of being here and we know them,it has nothing to do with actually re-signing them. The point was we are clamoring to spend 100 mil on a 25year old who has never pitched in the major leagues, who has had success in japan but scouts have questions about how his game translates to mlb. Several times I have seen it mentioned he has the POTENTIAL to be a number 2 starter.

How about this, I don't remember anyone bitching because we did not offer 100 mil to Sanchez. A guy who at 28 was far more proven and probably will outperform Tanaka. We just fall in love with the unknown especially when we are spending other people's money. It does not appear we have much money to spend. With that in mind, we have so many holes to fill, throwing all of it at one guy with a mixed idea of what we are getting is a gamble.

I' m sure you guys are right and he is all we need to become a real contender pretty much like our bullpen was so much better this year because we signed fujikawa.

 

Fujikawa threw 12 innings this year with a 14/2 K/BB and 1 HR. If his arm hadn't exploded we would have had a nearly full season in the position we are now with Gregg, Strop, and Russell at the back of the pen, which is to say the bullpen is fine.

 

That strawman is besides the point though, as you're trying to make it sound like Tanaka has been pitching in Africa or something so we have NO IDEA how he might translate. While every individual is different, there's a lot more predictability than you're letting on here. Some reading for you: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/maybe-its-time-we-stop-underrating-pitchers-from-asian-countries/

 

And lest you think those samples are too small to make distinctions, their current performance:

 

Darvish - 4.8 fWAR

Ryu - 2.9 fWAR

Iwakuma - 3.9 fWAR

Kuroda - 3.8 fWAR

Chen - 1.7 fWAR

Tazawa (RP) - 1.1 fWAR

Uehara (RP) - 3.3 fWAR (!)

[neely crenshaw]

Fujikawa had great stats, unless you factor in his 5.25 era and was hit hard at times, dangerous for a closer.

The reports all say he is not Darvish, he is not as dominate and his fastball usually sits around 90. Although he has had good strike out numbers at times, he has also had season where he does not strike out guys. The reports say that his fastball is very flat, and that he can get away with that in Japan but it will be hammered in major league baseball.

No it's not playing in africa but judging by how some bad american hitters tear apart the league, the hitting is certainly not as good and they do use a smaller ball, which can certainly have an effect on velocity and spin on his breaking pitches.

There are many successes, there are some failures and some that were ok, but certainly underperformed (fukudome?)

Where do you think he comes in at in war? 2.0? somewhere in the 1's?

Wood is at 4.8 also, and is 9-11, and we are struggling to win 70 games. Rusin is in at 1.1war.

So what type of performance would you think we should get for 100 mil investment, and how does that alone puts us in the mix nxt year?

IF he is everything you hoped for and more, does he outperform the first halves of Feldman and Garza? Who were pretty damn good.

I just don't see how signing him alone does much for the team for next year. Of course i am hoping to not have another give up year and actually try to compete next season. If we are giving in and waiting until 2015 again, then I guess signing a young potentially good pitcher as your only pick up would make sense but if you are hoping to truly compete next year it can't be the only thing you do.

[Guest]

You didn't read the article.

 

And please, have the courtesy to use spacing and make a few paragraphs. Many of your posts are 10 line blobs of words and it's really hard to sift through.