Fecal League Tracking 2013

[Irrelevant Dude]

It is going to be a fight to the finish between the Cubs and Twins for the #4 pick. Seeing how the Twins have been playing lately, they are going to be tough to beat for that spot.

[Guest]

Does it matter if they pick 4th or 5th? Statistically, are there better results?

[davell]

Does it matter if they pick 4th or 5th? Statistically, are there better results?

The main thing is the extra mill or so that comes with the higher of those two picks. That said, I'd like the 4th pick, but I'm not going to be pissed if we wind up at 5.

[WrigleyField 22]

We're protected which was my main concern. Let's go lose that second rounder!

[davell]

We're protected which was my main concern. Let's go lose that second rounder!

I'll be a bit greedy here in saying because of how strong this draft is, I don't want to lose the 2nd. I 'd much prefer getting Tanaka and trading for a bat. With the contract Ellsbury appears to be in line for, I just don 't want him. Somehow adding Cano would be cool, since it'd give us depth to trade from as far as our minor leaguers go. I like Choo, but I'm not sure I'd want to spend 90-100 mill on him and it's possible it takes that. But yet, evidently I'm OK with 8/200 on Cano. Well, this post makes no sense whatever. Sorry.

[WrigleyField 22]

We're protected which was my main concern. Let's go lose that second rounder!

I'll be a bit greedy here in saying because of how strong this draft is, I don't want to lose the 2nd. I 'd much prefer getting Tanaka and trading for a bat. With the contract Ellsbury appears to be in line for, I just don 't want him. Somehow adding Cano would be cool, since it'd give us depth to trade from as far as our minor leaguers go. I like Choo, but I'm not sure I'd want to spend 90-100 mill on him and it's possible it takes that. But yet, evidently I'm OK with 8/200 on Cano. Well, this post makes no sense whatever. Sorry.

Most of the players who would be in discussion for a guy like Stanton have more value than a 2nd round pick, even the complimentary pieces.

 

Not that I wouldn't trade for a bat as well.

[davell]

Oh, I know. All we can hope for if we trade for a major bat is that the 4/5 pick replenishes the main piece we'd be giving up and in a perfect world the 2nd rounder ends up becoming as valuable as a second piece in a major deal.

[Guest]

Oh, I know. All we can hope for if we trade for a major bat is that the 4/5 pick replenishes the main piece we'd be giving up and in a perfect world the 2nd rounder ends up becoming as valuable as a second piece in a major deal.

We can hope that Colorado overrates Arrieta as much as was implied in the one article.

[RammyFanny]

Fat chance, but it looks like we've got one final push in us for the #3. 2.5 out and we own the tie breaker. It's probably more important to hold off the Twins though, who are in extras right now. Could be a big win if they pull it out.

[davell]

Twins won. If we lose out, 3 is in play. I either want that or for us to win out and get 70.

[Guest]

twins blew the deficit in the 9th, heartbreaking win

[CubsWin]

With 5 games left for the Cubs, we're getting down to the nitty-gritty. Here's how it stands now...

 

Astros............1st pick clinched

Marlins...........Magic Number to clinch the 2nd pick - 1

White Sox.......+2.5

Cubs...............--

Twins.............1.5

Mariners.........3.0

 

The worst the Cubs could finish is 6th. The best is 3rd.

 

Any combination of White Sox losses and Cubs wins equaling 4 will eliminate the Cubs from the 3rd pick.

Any combination of Cubs losses and Twins wins equaling 4 will eliminate the Twins from the 4th pick.

Any combination of Cubs losses and Mariners wins equaling 2 will eliminate the Mariners from the 4th pick, guaranteeing the Cubs of picking no later than 5th.

 

The Cubs host the Pirates for two more games, have an off day Thursday in which both the White Sox and Twins will be playing, and finish the season playing three in St. Louis.

 

The White Sox have a 2-game road trip into Cleveland and finish at home with a 4-game set against the Royals.

 

The Twins have 6 games remaining, all at home. Two more against the Tigers and then four against the Indians.

 

The Mariners will face the Royals twice more in SafeCo, have Thursday off, then finish with three games against the A's also at home.

[CubsWin]

Obviously a lot can/will change between now and next June, but, as it stands right now, the tier one prospects seem to be Rodon, Hoffman, Turner and Kolek. Tier two starts with Alex Jackson simply due to the question of whether he can stick at catcher. If that holds true and there are 4 elite players in next year's draft, then the next few games could hold some drama.

[Cubswin11]

Obviously a lot can/will change between now and next June, but, as it stands right now, the tier one prospects seem to be Rodon, Hoffman, Turner and Kolek. Tier two starts with Alex Jackson simply due to the question of whether he can stick at catcher. If that holds true and there are 4 elite players in next year's draft, then the next few games could hold some drama.

Isn't Jackson the guy Mcleod is enamored with?

[Guest]

Obviously a lot can/will change between now and next June, but, as it stands right now, the tier one prospects seem to be Rodon, Hoffman, Turner and Kolek. Tier two starts with Alex Jackson simply due to the question of whether he can stick at catcher. If that holds true and there are 4 elite players in next year's draft, then the next few games could hold some drama.

 

That'll definitely change. This time last year, the top three prospects were Appel, Stanek and Manaea. Bryant was a top 10 talent and Gray was a top 3 round talent. Two years ago at this time, Giolito, Appel and Buxton were the top 3 prospects; Correa and Zimmer were not on anyone's radar. This stuff changes a lot, especially given how fickle pitching prospects and 17-year olds are.

[CubsWin]

Obviously a lot can/will change between now and next June, but, as it stands right now, the tier one prospects seem to be Rodon, Hoffman, Turner and Kolek. Tier two starts with Alex Jackson simply due to the question of whether he can stick at catcher. If that holds true and there are 4 elite players in next year's draft, then the next few games could hold some drama.

 

That'll definitely change. This time last year, the top three prospects were Appel, Stanek and Manaea. Bryant was a top 10 talent and Gray was a top 3 round talent. Two years ago at this time, Giolito, Appel and Buxton were the top 3 prospects; Correa and Zimmer were not on anyone's radar. This stuff changes a lot, especially given how fickle pitching prospects and 17-year olds are.

So we agree.

[CubsWin]

Obviously a lot can/will change between now and next June, but, as it stands right now, the tier one prospects seem to be Rodon, Hoffman, Turner and Kolek. Tier two starts with Alex Jackson simply due to the question of whether he can stick at catcher. If that holds true and there are 4 elite players in next year's draft, then the next few games could hold some drama.

Isn't Jackson the guy Mcleod is enamored with?

Yes.

[Guest]

Obviously a lot can/will change between now and next June, but, as it stands right now, the tier one prospects seem to be Rodon, Hoffman, Turner and Kolek. Tier two starts with Alex Jackson simply due to the question of whether he can stick at catcher. If that holds true and there are 4 elite players in next year's draft, then the next few games could hold some drama.

 

That'll definitely change. This time last year, the top three prospects were Appel, Stanek and Manaea. Bryant was a top 10 talent and Gray was a top 3 round talent. Two years ago at this time, Giolito, Appel and Buxton were the top 3 prospects; Correa and Zimmer were not on anyone's radar. This stuff changes a lot, especially given how fickle pitching prospects and 17-year olds are.

So we agree.

 

Yeah. I didn't mean for my post to come off as disagreeing with you, if it did. But I don't think it's worth getting caught up in draft spots based on prospect tier levels at this time.

[The-Kris-Bryant]

It is when there is a Harper or Strasburg type talent lurking. Heck Teixeira, Prior, Mauer too. Ditto for David Price. Rodon might be that kind of prospect (I don't think he is, but can see why some would) but those prospects aren't always there. However, they're identified well in advance of the draft.

[Guest]

It is when there is a Harper or Strasburg type talent lurking. Heck Teixeira, Prior, Mauer too. Ditto for David Price. Rodon might be that kind of prospect (I don't think he is, but can see why some would) but those prospects aren't always there. However, they're identified well in advance of the draft.

 

That goes without saying. Clearly next year's draft lacks an elite player on the level of Harper, Strasburg, Teixeira, or Prior (or Hamilton/Beckett in 1999), which is why I said it wasn't worth getting caught up in tiers now.

[Sammys Boombox]

What do you guys think of locking in the draft spots based on records at the ASB or trade deadline? Do you think it would reduce the number of teams that are obviously tanking season?

 

I fear MLB is going to turn into 22 teams fighting for 10 spots (i.e. 8 teams go into the season knowing they are tanking), then after the trade deadline 12-15 teams are fighting for the 10 spots and the other half of the league is trying to find their way into the bottom 10.

 

This creates some serious competition issues for the teams that are actually trying to reach the postseason. Say, two or three of the tanking teams are in the same division. That's a huge Wild Card advantage to the team(s) that finish second/third in that division.

 

Say Teams A, B and C are all within the same division. Teams A and B are contending all season, but Team C decides in July that their .500 record is not going to be good enough and they want to dump some major pieces on their MLB team for prospects and give a bunch of AAA/AA players some MLB experience. Team A played Team C 15 times before the break and only have a 4-game series remaining with Team C. However, Team B has only played Team C 6 times and still has 13 to play against them. Team A is going to be pretty upset.

 

After a few years of this CBA I would like to compare the distribution of wins versus historical distributions.

[davell]

I'd rather just hold a weighted lottery for a specified number of picks, including all 30 teams. After the specified picks are made, go worst to first after that.

[WrigleyField 22]

Tanking isn't going to happen in MLB because immediate impact players in the draft are so rare. This year there were two teams that tanked and I feel pretty comfortable saying those we're cost decisions and not draft decisions. An extra wild card should help create less mid season sell offs as well.

[davell]

Loria is scum, they make money as it is, but I do buy them as cost saving, just to make more. The Astros though? Totally playing the system. 3 years in a row with the worst record in baseball? Come the [expletive] on. And I see no reason they won't make it 4 next year. It's one thing to throw competent major leaguers out there and sell off once it's apparent you aren't catching lightning in a bottle. It's another to throw a bunch of AAAA players out there, while keeping a 20 mill or under payroll. I laughed my ass off when I saw they literally got a 0.0 TV rating one day last week.

[Irrelevant Dude]

Tanking isn't going to happen in MLB because immediate impact players in the draft are so rare.

I couldn't disagree more. With the new CBA, there are more incentives for teams to tank and they will continue to do so unless changes are made to the system. You can't just look at draft position. A team's record also impacts their amateur draft budget, international draft budget, and protected pick status for Type A free agents.