6/22 Astros (Norris) @ Cubs (Wood) 3:05pm, WGN TV/Radio

[Guest]

Because ERA is pretty much a "bottom line" stat, it does become more predictive the longer that ERA stays at a certain level. So yes, if a guy puts up the same ERA for years and years, he's a good bet to do that again almost regardless of what other peripherals might say.

 

Where that gets much less clear is in shorter samples. Because ERA can be so dependent on a variety of factors, even over a season or two it can deceive. That's why people were skeptical of Matt Cain early in his career until he showed a repeated ability to outperform his peripherals.

 

In the case of Wood, he may have an ability to put up a better ERA than his peripherals would indicate, possibly due to his strides in adding a cutter to attack RH hitters. There's too much noise to tell for sure though, he does have less than 500 IP spread over 4 seasons so far that have had ups and downs in that respect.

[Guest]

OK. I know I'm going to come off stupid, but I haven't totally grasped the whole concept that ERA means nothing. I understand that some circumstances like having a bad defense would possibly inflate an ERA, but doesn't it still somewhat represent the quality of a pitcher and his work?

 

If somebody has a, say, 3.60 ERA or lower each year of a 10-year career, isn't it almost a lock that without looking at anything else, that the guy was probably considered by almost everybody to be a quality pitcher?

 

Again, I'm just looking to become educated. Help me out.

 

After 10 years, yeah, you've established a large enough set of data that that's probably a safe assumption. What we're talking about here is an in season ERA that's much lower than previous performance would indicate. Things like an unsustainable HR/FB ratio, a really high strand rate of baserunners, and low K/BB ratio would be dead giveaways that the low ERA isn't sustainable. Those things are factored into FIP and xFIP to give you a more accurate assessment of performance.

Even more importantly for the discussion we're having about keeping vs trading Wood is predictive value. FIP, xFIP, SIERA and other metrics that attempt to factor out "luck" are much more predictive of future ERA than ERA.

[SouthSideRyan]

Batflip single

[Little Slide Rooter]

Castro with hits in back to back games. Slight signs of life are better than no signs of life.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Ronny Cedeno's an Astro too? Is there anyone they won't let play for them?

[Schwarber Fan]

Add Travis Wood bunting with 2 strikes to the list of stupid Svuem decisions.

[Guest]

Add Travis Wood bunting with 2 strikes to the list of stupid Svuem decisions.

 

Travis Wood is a pitcher with a .528 OPS in 164 PA. This year he is 0 for 12 with 10 strikeouts once he gets to 2 strikes. Don't be obnoxious.

[Schwarber Fan]

Trade or keep Nate?

[Andy]

Ronny Cedeno's an Astro too? Is there anyone they won't let play for them?

If you'll take the league minimum and fit into the tanking strategy, then no, there isn't.

[Guest]

Well that blew up quickly.

[InconspicuousZ28]

Tied up the game quickly. All of that done with 2 outs.

[Guest]

Shawn Camp coming in? This will end well.

[InconspicuousZ28]

That looked like a bad call, but apparently WGN only got one camera angle on it.

[Guest]

He was safe.

[Schwarber Fan]

That was the ugliest play I've ever seen.

[InconspicuousZ28]

That blown call at 2nd is really big now as Soriano would've likely scored there.

[Guest]

That was the ugliest play I've ever seen.

 

And Rizzo couldn't get an extra base out of it (probably did the right thing, but still).

[Schwarber Fan]

Robot ump time

[InconspicuousZ28]

Another bad call, this one by the plate ump.

[Guest]

wow

[Guest]

This inning has been a perfect case for robot umps.

[Careless]

Well that sucked.

[Guest]

Terrible zone. We should be ahead right now.

[Schwarber Fan]

K this tool Cedeno and get the walkoff.

[Andy]

Well, the umps win one for Houston today, I suppose