Welington Castillo's bumming me out

[sneakypower]

he's currently leading the team in bWAR, so what's the problem? well, he won't be for very much longer...

 

the bad

right now, he's been barely above average (106 wRC+, 104 OPS+) offensively, despite the enormous benefit a .431 BABIP provides (it's worth pointing out that it's been partially earned, with a 23% LD rate and .341 xBABIP)

 

the problem here is besides the singles & doubles, he's not doing much else offensively (1 BB and 1 HR -- with just a .341 BABIP, he'd have a line near .248/.290/.332 right now

 

now, the other issue is defense: BB-ref shows him at +6 and FG shows him at +2, but i think it's reasonable to say that's probably generous, as he's pretty poor at blocking pitches (7 PB & 32 WPs in 80 GS) and his framing skills (which aren't factored in) are just dreadful; we don't know the full effect of this, but it's safe to assume it's fairly significant, and his real life defensive effect likely isn't an overall positive

 

the good

it's not all doom & gloom though; he's team-controlled through '17 and his overall numbers give some hope: 1.9 fWAR thru 326 MLB PA, and his 20% LDs & .324 xBABIP show he's making good contact when he hits the ball...he's also young enough to still possibly iron out a few wrinkles in his approach and become a hitter with more sustainable bat

 

and for the complaints i had about his defense, his arm is tremendous and he has potential to shut down a team's running game, and his willingness to take HBPs might mitigate the BB problems a tiny bit

 

but i'm starting to feel like this might be another Hendry holdover with too many bad habits and undeveloped skills to bother trying to mold into the type of player Theo wants, to where we'll keep considering other options

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It looks like, in sum, he's going to be a below-average starter but not a black hole. That's not a bad thing, but we sure do seem to be piling those up.

[SABR Gamer]

I don't think he's much more than an average-ish, cost controlled, 2nd division starter for the next 2-3 years. There's nothing wrong with him being that either. He's not an elite player and never will be, but he still has value.

[Guest]

What's confusing is that from 2009 - 2012, his walk rate increased every year in the minors. Last year, he had a fairly spectacular walk rate at Iowa. His patience as a hitter was actually one thing I didn't question all that much coming into this year.

 

At least that history in the minors gives some hope that as he feels more settled in the majors, he may start to be more patient.

[treebird]

What's confusing is that from 2009 - 2012, his walk rate increased every year in the minors. Last year, he had a fairly spectacular walk rate at Iowa. His patience as a hitter was actually one thing I didn't question all that much coming into this year.

 

At least that history in the minors gives some hope that as he feels more settled in the majors, he may start to be more patient.

 

yeah, coming in i definitely thought he was a guy who might hit .240 with a little pop and walk enough to make it work. instead he's doing everything but that. very weird.

[BeerHere]

I might be off but his early splits remind me of young Yadier Molina. He came into the league in 2004 and put up a .267/.329/.356 line in 151 PA's. His first full season was .252/.295/.358 but with very good defense. He was a 3 WAR player for three years starting in 2009 and a 7WAR player last year. If Castillo works on his receiving skills, I can see a similar line with a little better offense and worse defense. He's cost controlled through 2017 and has shown a history of taking his walks (other than this year). He clearly needs to improve but I'm not unhappy with where he is right now.

[Guest]

The big difference there is that Molina broke into MLB at 21/22 while Castillo turned 26 a couple weeks ago.

 

Catchers do have a different aging curve though, so as long as he keeps stinging line drives with league average plate discipline numbers like he has been, we should see more power and then more walks to go with it to even out his BABIP-fueled start

[jersey cubs fan]

The big difference there is that Molina broke into MLB at 21/22 while Castillo turned 26 a couple weeks ago.

 

Catchers do have a different aging curve though, so as long as he keeps stinging line drives with league average plate discipline numbers like he has been, we should see more power and then more walks to go with it to even out his BABIP-fueled start

 

And then 3 years from now he should be somebody's backup.

[BeerHere]

The big difference there is that Molina broke into MLB at 21/22 while Castillo turned 26 a couple weeks ago.

 

Catchers do have a different aging curve though, so as long as he keeps stinging line drives with league average plate discipline numbers like he has been, we should see more power and then more walks to go with it to even out his BABIP-fueled start

How did I not know that Castillo is 26?

[Guest]

It'd be nice if we could trade him now, before his fast start is identified as a fluke and his grade school defensive ability is well known.

[Guest]

The big difference there is that Molina broke into MLB at 21/22 while Castillo turned 26 a couple weeks ago.

 

Catchers do have a different aging curve though, so as long as he keeps stinging line drives with league average plate discipline numbers like he has been, we should see more power and then more walks to go with it to even out his BABIP-fueled start

 

And then 3 years from now he should be somebody's backup.

 

 

P.S. That signature is way too god damn big.

[KaiserCesar]

It'd be nice if we could trade him now, before his fast start is identified as a fluke and his grade school defensive ability is well known.

 

The Catcher position is such an organizational chasm for the Cubs, there's really no reason to trade Castillo unless you can get incredible surplus value.

[sneakypower]

i had to bolt & couldn't catch the last 2 innings of today's game, but i feel comfortable blaming Castillo for the loss

 

he had already seen three sliders a foot off the plate, one of which he swung at with a 2-1 count (rage) and he sees a 3rd straight slider in the same stupid location with a full count that he had in his mind the whole way he'd swing at regardless

 

i wonder if the CBA expressly outlaws some kind of Pavlovian* shock therapy synced up with pitch f/x that goes off every time some of these guys flail haplessly at pitches out of the zone during 2-0, 3-1 counts; it just kills me

 

 

 

*well, B.F. Skinner was actually the operant conditioning guy whereas Pavlov employed positive reinforcement but that might not be well-known enough for the reference to work

[JLN]

*well, B.F. Skinner was actually the operant conditioning guy whereas Pavlov employed positive reinforcement but that might not be well-known enough for the reference to work

 

I don't think you have that right.

[Guest]

*well, B.F. Skinner was actually the operant conditioning guy whereas Pavlov employed positive reinforcement but that might not be well-known enough for the reference to work

 

I don't think you have that right.

Yea, Pavlov worked on the antecedent end S(stimulus)-R(response). Skinner discovered S-R-S. The power of consequences, so he kind of had it half right. The point stands though.

[JLN]

Sure, the point still stands and I agree with him. I was admittedly nerding out, but his Skinner thing was right but the Pavlov thing was not.

[Soul]

he had already seen three sliders a foot off the plate, one of which he swung at with a 2-1 count (rage) and he sees a 3rd straight slider in the same stupid location with a full count that he had in his mind the whole way he'd swing at regardless

 

He's shaking his head at the stupidity of swinging at it, and then he does it AGAIN to whiff.

 

I try not to judge a guy like that (one situation), but it's baffling when a player knows what is wrong and simply continues doing it anyway.

 

If he's trying to show how his value as a player is limited, he's doing a great job in an AB like that one.

[Guest]

Another passed ball tonight.