2014 Draft Discussion

[Guest]

Not sure if these are premium stories but they were interesting. I'll summarize if they're premium.

 

College pitchers more likely to need elbow surgery than HS pitchers: http://ht.ly/xp3HM

 

Changing pitching counts in college baseball: http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/with-college-pitch-counts-times-are-changing/

[Guest]

@sahadevsharma: Recently seen chatter of Cubs possibly snagging Jeff Hoffman at 4 despite TJS, but I'm hearing that is definitely not a route they'll take.

[Cubswin11]

@sahadevsharma: Recently seen chatter of Cubs possibly snagging Jeff Hoffman at 4 despite TJS, but I'm hearing that is definitely not a route they'll take.

That reads like a John Heyman tweet

[jersey cubs fan]

@sahadevsharma: Recently seen chatter of Cubs possibly snagging Jeff Hoffman at 4 despite TJS, but I'm hearing that is definitely not a route they'll take.

That reads like a John Heyman tweet

 

I thought similar at first, but if you give him the benefit of the doubt he's just saying that even though there is chatter that they will take Hoffman, his sources tell him that is not true. It's just poking holes in a rumor. Not particularly helpful or meaningful, but not exactly Heyman territory.

[Guest]

@keithlaw: I wrote about the Houston/Nick Gordon rumor on Tuesday but said I didn't buy it, and I still don't: http://t.co/BIFs0H5Y88

[Guest]

Kiley McDaniel's scouting report on his top three prospects, Brady Aiken, Carlos Rodon and Alex Jackson: http://sbb.scout.com/story/1406889

 

1. Brady Aiken, LHP, Cathedral Catholic HS (CA), UCLA commit

 

6'4/215, L/L, 17.80 on Draft Day

 

Fastball: 55/60+, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 50/55

 

Scouting Report: Aiken is a very-well known prospect from a powerhouse high school program in San Diego. He was advanced for his class as far back as his sophomore year, even though he's young for his grade, and is also a top 5 round prospect as a right fielder. Scouts haven't had to focus on his bat much as Aiken has always stood out more on the mound. This summer he was at many of the top events, working 88-91 and hitting 93 mph with above average off-speed and command but his athletic frame was maxed-out.

 

He didn't pitch over the fall off and grew an inch, got leaner and stronger, proven in his first outing of the spring where he hit 97 mph, sitting 92-95 in a two-inning scrimmage against Alex Jackson, who he struck out. As you'd guess, Aiken's curveball got sharper and jumped a grade, while his arm speed helped the changeup stand out even more. There's a little projection left, but Aiken's strength is that he's as close to a finished product as you'll see in high school. This year's class lacks that impact huge talent, but Aiken is the consensus top prospect and would go in the top 3-5 picks any of the past few drafts, with the type of talent that fits in any club's drafting style.

 

Take A Step Back: Big, athletic kid is young for the class with legit two-way talent and a long track record of commanding solid-average stuff before his velo popped this spring. Checks every box except for plus-plus pitch, but is still a prep arm, no matter how polished or athletic.

 

Projected Role: #2 Starter, 65-70 FV

 

2. Carlos Rodon, LHP, North Carolina State

 

6'0/235, L/L, 21.49 on Draft Day

 

Fastball: 55/55, Slider: 60/70, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50

 

Scouting Report: Rodon has been famous for awhile, making his velo jump right after getting to campus in Raleigh. He was off some boards in high school and seen as a 3rd-5th round prospect by others due to a back problem; he was a maxed-out left that threw mostly 88-91 without a ton of athleticism. Much of his first two years at N.C. State, Rodon sat 92-95 and hit 97 mph but, especially early in his sophomore year, was working 88-92 mph for the majority of his starts when scouts weren't bearing down on him. Those concerns were quieted when he was back to his old self (see the above video) when Rodon sat 92-94 and hit 96 mph with at least a grade 70 slider and good command against the Cubans, pitching for Team USA. The problem is that the start and much of the later stages of this spring, that diminished Rodon returned. In nearly every outing this spring (one is the other video above), he sat 90-92 in the middle innings, hitting some 94s and 95s early, with a couple starts where he hit 97 mph and couple where he topped out at 93 mph.

 

Rodon still has some effort to his delivery, he still has a maxed-out physique with limited plane and he still isn't that athletic, so the long-term indicators tend to point that this spring wasn't a fluke and the arm speed trajectory is pointing down. The arm speed from that Cuba start still come back at times and likely will, but it's hard to see Rodon regularly becoming that dominating guy again. His slider will still flash 70 when he sits 90-92 mph, at an unusually high velocity of 86-90 mph, showing how gifted he is at spinning the ball. His changeup is above average at times and his command is average at times, but both come and go with the arm speed and repeatability of his delivery, particularly his fastball velocity and confidence in the pitch. Rodon also noticeably was favoring his back in a cold-weather start at Maryland this year when he had his worst velo of the season, so that concern hasn't been erased, either. The team that takes him is hoping for six years of an above average fastball/changeup combo, an out-pitch slider and average command, all hopefully coming soon. That's a solid #3 starter, with a chance he could settle a level above or below that, given the inconsistency of his stuff over the last few years.

 

Take A Step Back: Flashes #3 starter stuff even on bad days, so as long as you can manage physical yellow flags and slightly tweak delivery to improve command consistency, he could be that in the big leagues quickly.

 

Projected Role: #3 Starter, 60-65 FV

 

3. Alex Jackson, RF, Rancho Bernardo HS (CA), Oregon commit

6'1/220, R/R, 18.44 on Draft Day

 

Hit: 55/60, Power: 55/60, Run: 45/45, Field: 45/50, Throw: 60/60

 

Scouting Report: Jackson burst onto the scene before his junior year when he was one of the best players on the field at the Area Code Games, which set the stage for him standing out at nearly every notable event the summer before his senior year. He's mostly playing catcher at these events and for his high school team (a San Diego-area powerhouse that produced Cole Hamels, among other big leaguers). Jackson falls into the Bryce Harper area in this respect; he has the tools to catch, but has a lot of work to get to big league ready (as a receiver, as his arm is plenty), which will slow down his very advanced bat, while the rigors of catching will eventually erode at his production in the big leagues. The easy solution is what's happened with Harper—stick him in right field—though some scouts think there's a chance Jackson could play third. He's barely played there, so the confidence isn't high and the catcher decision has to be made right after signing, likely as a top 5 pick, so all expectations are Jackson plays right his whole career, with a possible instructional league flirtation with third base to see if it sticks.

 

I mention Harper to illustrate the positional question and the early evidence of elite talent, but Jackson isn't on Harper's level. Jackson could never play center field and is a fringy at best runner, with a plus arm that's still a notch or two weaker than Harper's howitzer. Jackson also has plus power and advanced feel to hit, but struggled against good pitching at times this summer and lacks the historic pop of Harper. All that said, Jackson is still a big-time talent. He has the rare chance to be a plus hitter with plus bat speed and plus power, as he's been laying waste to solid competition this spring with multiple GM's and scouting directors walking away awestruck. One of the most impressive things about Jackson is his feel to go the other way and how naturally the ball comes off his bat, when many hitters his age change their swing in BP to go oppo. That kind of opposite field power in games ages well and Jackson is one of the surest bets to become an everyday player among prep bats in recent memory. The track record of advanced prep bats that go in the top 5-10 picks and stood out as underclassmen is very encouraging.

 

Take A Step Back: Incredibly gifted hitter has mashed on the big stage for years, so set aside the non-superstar upside and just take the quick-moving power bat.

 

Projected Role: Above Average Regular, 55-60 FV

[Gilby]

Does Kyle Schwarber have any shot of playing outfield adequately in the pros?

[Guest]

Does Kyle Schwarber have any shot of playing outfield adequately in the pros?

 

I don't think he has the athleticism to. But man, his bat.

[Guest]

@kileymcd: Mock draft teasers: Nick Gordon/1-1 rumor still alive & UVAs Nick Howard rumored as high as 11/TOR w/multiple tms in teens kicking the tires

 

A reliever at 11!? Though Toronto is probably trying to go under slot.

[Gilby]

Does Kyle Schwarber have any shot of playing outfield adequately in the pros?

 

I don't think he has the athleticism to. But man, his bat.

 

Yeah, I figure if Conforto isn't great in the outfield either, you might as well just take the better hitter in Schwarber if he can be even close to adequate defensively. Sucks he might not be able to do that though.

 

The lack of homers from Conforto isn't ideal (7 this season), but I guess it's worth noting that Zimmerman only hit 6 homeruns his junior year (7 total in his college career) and Longoria hit 11 his junior year. Both of them also used the BESR bats. Granted, they also have better hit tools and provide MUCH more defensive value than Conforto will.

 

In conclusion, Kris Bryant's power was, and still is, amazing.

Edited May 30, 2014 by Gilby

[Guest]

Does Kyle Schwarber have any shot of playing outfield adequately in the pros?

 

I don't think he has the athleticism to. But man, his bat.

 

Yeah, I figure if Conforto isn't great in the outfield either, you might as well just take the better hitter in Schwarber if he can be even close to adequate defensively. Sucks he might not be able to do that though.

 

The lack of homers from Conforto isn't ideal (7 this season), but I guess it's worth noting that Zimmerman only hit 6 homeruns his senior year (7 total in his college career) and Longoria hit 11 his senior year. Both of them also used the BESR bats. Granted, they also have better hit tools and provide MUCH more defensive value than Conforto will.

 

In conclusion, Kris Bryant's power was, and still is, amazing.

 

Conforto did hit 13 and 11 HRs in his first two seasons and OSU plays in a pitcher-friendly stadium. Indiana is a more hitter-friendly environment though Schwarber did hit a bomb at the Big Ten Tournament at TD Ameritrade which is super impressive (I think there were 2 total HRs last year there during the College World Series - the stadium is incredibly cavernous).

 

Of course Bryant played in probably the second or third most pitcher-friendly ballpark in college baseball last season.

[waffle]

I watched conforto play ALOT and never thought he was anything other than above average in the field. Maybe just when I was watching. Not a great arm but has a knack for making the big play and big throw at just the right moment.

 

Kid can really hit, though.

[Guest]

@thekapman: Hoyer on trading draft picks: “I think it would be great. It’s so frustrating to us to be locked into draft picks. The NFL does it right."

[Guest]

BA mock 4.0: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-draft-4-separating-fact-from-fiction/

 

1. ASTROS: There are more rumors going around with the top pick now as the draft approaches. One has the Astros cutting a deal with Orlando prep shortstop Nick Gordon. Another candidate for that kind of arrangement is Nola, whose season likely won’t be over by draft time. It’s common for the teams at the top of the draft to let each other know some idea of their plans, but the teams picking soon after Houston don’t expect the Astros to let them know anything firm until the morning of June 5, the day of the draft.

 

If Rodon doesn’t go here, he may drop to No. 4. It’s tempting to slide him back into this slot and dismiss all the other rumors, but the industry consensus right now is that he will fall a bit and that Houston will, for once, take the consensus top talent on the board. That’s San Diego prep lefthander Brady Aiken, who draws Cole Hamels comps for his polish and has a bigger body.

Projected Pick: LHP Brady Aiken

 

2. MARLINS: If San Diego prep catcher Alex Jackson doesn’t go here to the Marlins, he’s expected to slip as far as No. 6 to Seattle, which is his floor.

Projected Pick: C/OF Alex Jackson

 

3. WHITE SOX: The talk to this point has been that the White Sox would not pass on Rodon if he were available here. That talk persists, but so do the rumors linking Chicago to outsized Texas high school flamethrower Tyler Kolek. The Cubs are watching closely because while Kolek is not a Cubs target, Rodon is. The White Sox have a bigger bonus pool than the Cubs, but Rodon likely would eat up more of it.

Projected Pick: RHP Tyler Kolek

 

4. CUBS: This would be the ideal situation for the Cubs, who covet a fast-moving pitcher with upside. Aiken and Rodon are their top targets, and if both are gone, they remain in play for a deal with the likes of Kennesaw State catcher Max Pentecost.

Projected Pick: LHP Carlos Rodon

[RammyFanny]

The White Sox selection of Kolek is “the lock” of the top five picks, says Law.

MLBTR summarizing a Law podcast. He pretty much said so in his mock too.

[Guest]

Also from the BA mock:

 

The biggest concrete development since our most recent mock draft involves lefthander Kyle Freeland of Evansville. Ranked No. 5 on on the BA 500, Freeland had an MRI exam this week, which was distributed to the 30 clubs by the Major League Scouting Bureau, to clear up concerns over an old injury that had clouded his draft stock.

 

Freeland had arthroscopic elbow surgery in 2007, when he was a high school freshman, and as tends to happen before a draft, scouts heard differing reports on the extent of the injury. To short-circuit the rumor mill, Freeland got a fresh exam a bit more than a week out from the draft.

[Guest]

Does Kyle Schwarber have any shot of playing outfield adequately in the pros?

 

I don't think he has the athleticism to. But man, his bat.

 

Yeah, I figure if Conforto isn't great in the outfield either, you might as well just take the better hitter in Schwarber if he can be even close to adequate defensively. Sucks he might not be able to do that though.

 

The lack of homers from Conforto isn't ideal (7 this season), but I guess it's worth noting that Zimmerman only hit 6 homeruns his senior year (7 total in his college career) and Longoria hit 11 his senior year. Both of them also used the BESR bats. Granted, they also have better hit tools and provide MUCH more defensive value than Conforto will.

 

In conclusion, Kris Bryant's power was, and still is, amazing.

 

In BA's mock, they have Schwarber listed as a C/OF.

[Guest]

I think Rodon terrifies me more than any player we could take with our pick.

[Guest]

I think Rodon terrifies me more than any player we could take with our pick.

 

Rodon and Kolek; Rodon probably moreso because shoulder surgery is worse than elbow.

[Guest]

Max Pentecost and Kennesaw State are facing Alabama on ESPN3 right now.

 

RHP Jake Stinnett (potential second rounder) is pitching for Maryland on ESPN3 too.

[Cubswin11]

I think I want Aiken or Jackson the most.

[Guest]

I think I want Aiken or Jackson the most.

 

Me too.

[Guest]

Also, LSU is saving Nola for tomorrow.

[KingCubsFan]

I think Rodon terrifies me more than any player we could take with our pick.

 

Rodon and Kolek; Rodon probably moreso because shoulder surgery is worse than elbow.

 

Just accepting the fact that Kolek will have TJS, I'd love to see what our development staff could do with an arm like that. Doesn't look like he'll fall past the White Sox though. And we don't seem particularly interested in him anyways.

[Guest]

I won't be upset if we draft Rodon, but I'd rather go a number of other directions.