Re: Projecting the 2013 Cubs

[Guest]

Meanwhile, our reserve infielders have added up to a net -4.1 bWAR since the beginning of last year. Essentially negating Rizzo or Castro's contributions. That's worth bemoaning.

 

I'm curious to see your math here.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Actually what I'm saying is that both Ricketts and Theo have convinced many of you that things were worse than anyone could imagine when they took over and now we should wait patiently while they rake in huge profits while fielding a terrible team. Ricketts knew about the state of the economy (in Chicago and in Illinois), the politics of Chicago, the rooftop agreement, the landmark status of Wrigley, the horrible physical condition of Wrigley, etc. when he bought the team. Theo knew about the terrible farm system, the payroll, the CBA, the lack of statistics used by the Cubs, the bad ML roster, etc. when he took the job. Hopefully Theo can build the perennial contender that he promised us, but I need to start seeing some results at the ML level next year.

 

So they somehow have convinced many of us that it's worse...than the plethora of terrible things you yourself just listed. Gotcha.

 

I keep reading posts about Theo saying that "things were worse than he thought", "it might take longer than we hoped", etc. Ricketts and Theo are extremely smart and both of them walked into this situation knowing exactly what they were getting into, so I'm saying I'm tired of reading posts saying we might be terrible again next year and Theo should be considered successful if 3 years from now we're still under .500 and some of his prospects are producing at the ML level.

 

Are these things that Theo actually said or people trying to make speculations about what Theo's thinking? I've never heard or read about Theo saying anything along those lines. The bottom line is that it wasn't just hiring Theo. It was an entire front office team, and they didn't assemble this regime so that they could revert back to early-mid 90s.

 

I'll say what I've been saying since the current plan went into action;

-Stock up on prospects via draft, trades, and international FA; on the right track. Better than could be expected considering the state of the farm system when they took over

 

-Rack up as many former top prospects/reclamation types as possible in hopes that a few of them stick; Certainly done that, he just hasn't found the diamond he's looking for, though he certainly got Maholm on a reclamation contract and a few months later spun him into our top pitching prospect.

 

-Sign free agents that can not only help now, but in the foreseeable future

 

...and once he's stocked the farm system as much as he can, and gets a pretty good idea of it's major strengths and weaknesses, THEN they'll bust out the check book to fill the holes with the best players possible, as opposed to just spending on the shiniest toy available regardelss of it's long term fit with the plan.

 

When he took over the Red Sox, he already had a great core to build around, and he then filled in the blanks with cost effective options. Think of this as the opposite; stocking up on cost effective options, and then filling in the blanks with some big names via trade and FA. I expect that between this summer and winter of 2015, some big moves will be made.

[Little Slide Rooter]

On a slightly different note and im admittedly not that knowledgeable on Baseball but would a trade for Price mean the end of the slow build process seeing as it would take most of our higher rated prospects to get a deal done?

 

For all we know, that's his plan. Stock up as much as possible on prosepcts, and then start flipping them for big league talent. Can't argue with the plan, seeing as young impact players don't seem to be hitting free agency these days.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Meanwhile, our reserve infielders have added up to a net -4.1 bWAR since the beginning of last year. Essentially negating Rizzo or Castro's contributions. That's worth bemoaning.

 

I'm curious to see your math here.

 

2012:

Valbuena +0.5

Baker -0.2

Cardenas -0.3

DeWitt -0.3

Lalli -0.3

Vitters -1.2

Mather -2.0

 

2013:

Valbuena +0.3

Gonzalez 0.0

Lillibridge -0.6

 

You could probably quibble over some of these guys being counted as "backup infielders" or whatnot, but the the essential total is about -4 wins against replacement.

[Guest]

Meanwhile, our reserve infielders have added up to a net -4.1 bWAR since the beginning of last year. Essentially negating Rizzo or Castro's contributions. That's worth bemoaning.

 

I'm curious to see your math here.

 

2012:

Valbuena +0.5

Baker -0.2

Cardenas -0.3

DeWitt -0.3

Lalli -0.3

Vitters -1.2

Mather -2.0

 

2013:

Valbuena +0.3

Gonzalez 0.0

Lillibridge -0.6

 

You could probably quibble over some of these guys being counted as "backup infielders" or whatnot, but the the essential total is about -4 wins against replacement.

 

 

You should throw in Recker last year and probably Clevenger this year, but that's really beside the point.

 

I think the more important quibble would be that 75+% of your -4 WAR figure was allocated by an outfielder who played less than 20 games in the infield, and a prospect brought up after they sold off at the trade deadline and started a bunch of games down the stretch when there was nothing left to play for but evaluating players like said prospect.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I keep forgetting that Joe Mather is mostly an outfielder because that makes him so much worse and so nonsensical that a guy like that got an MLB job. My bad.

 

I'm really not inclined to give them a pass on "it was over anyway" call-ups, because they are responsible for it being over at that point.

Edited April 22, 2013 by Hairyducked Idiot

[neely crenshaw]

I see the point. It's hard to argue they haven't been awful. A bigger problem would be that because of injuries to stewart last year and barney this year they have played too many innings.

I also think in the big picture we have so many problems this is a little one. If we had back up infielders that were a 0.0 and lost us no games on paper, we get the 4 games back and that makes us a 65 win team.

 

Also over 1/4 of the negative rating comes from Vitters(-1.2) who only really played because Stewart was out (and bad) and they wanted to give him a full look.

[Guest]

I keep forgetting that Joe Mather is mostly an outfielder because that makes him so much worse and so nonsensical that a guy like that got an MLB job. My bad.

 

I'm really not inclined to give them a pass on "it was over anyway" call-ups, because they are responsible for it being over at that point.

 

How are you always forgetting extremely basic things like this and the hand Mike Minor throws with or which Asian pitcher is which?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

How are you always forgetting extremely basic things like this and the hand Mike Minor throws with or which Asian pitcher is which?

 

It's a balancing mechanism, a nerf from the universe. Otherwise, I would be severely OP in these discussions.

[Tracer Bullet]

Meanwhile, our reserve infielders have added up to a net -4.1 bWAR since the beginning of last year. Essentially negating Rizzo or Castro's contributions. That's worth bemoaning.

 

I'm curious to see your math here.

 

2012:

Valbuena +0.5

Baker -0.2

Cardenas -0.3

DeWitt -0.3

Lalli -0.3

Vitters -1.2

Mather -2.0

 

2013:

Valbuena +0.3

Gonzalez 0.0

Lillibridge -0.6

 

You could probably quibble over some of these guys being counted as "backup infielders" or whatnot, but the the essential total is about -4 wins against replacement.

 

 

You should throw in Recker last year and probably Clevenger this year, but that's really beside the point.

 

I think the more important quibble would be that 75+% of your -4 WAR figure was allocated by an outfielder who played less than 20 games in the infield, and a prospect brought up after they sold off at the trade deadline and started a bunch of games down the stretch when there was nothing left to play for but evaluating players like said prospect.

 

You're trying to tell me that Kyle included an OF that made up half of this atrocious number? I'll be right back. I'm going to fall off my chair in shock.

 

Oh and another -1.2 comes from Vitters, which is of course Theo's fault for seeing if he was any good at the major league level and not the fault of the guy that drafted him third overall 5 years earlier.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The fact that the horrible, awful player that Epstein willingly employed was only partially an infielder is a dumb mistake on my part, but it doesn't undercut the more important point, which is that Epstein's front office chose to employ such a terrible player.

 

Oh and another -1.2 comes from Vitters, which is of course Theo's fault for seeing if he was any good at the major league level and not the fault of the guy that drafted him third overall 5 years earlier.

 

It's Epstein's fault that the team didn't have a good 3b already in place, along with a decent bullpen and some other parts, so that the games in September were being used for that purpose rather than to try to advance to the playoffs.

[Tracer Bullet]

Oh and another -1.2 comes from Vitters, which is of course Theo's fault for seeing if he was any good at the major league level and not the fault of the guy that drafted him third overall 5 years earlier.

 

It's Epstein's fault that the team didn't have a good 3b already in place, along with a decent bullpen and some other parts, so that the games in September were being used for that purpose rather than to try to advance to the playoffs.

 

No. It's Hendry's. And Vitters putting up -1.2 last year exemplifies that as much as anything. Why don't we have a very good 3b? Oh bc we don't have unlimited funds and Hendry didn't draft or acquire any for the farm system.

 

If Theo was worried about your praise, he probably would have just signed ARam bc it would have netted a couple more wins and who cares about the future. Thankfully he's using these years of overhaul wisely instead.

[Guest]

Oh and another -1.2 comes from Vitters, which is of course Theo's fault for seeing if he was any good at the major league level and not the fault of the guy that drafted him third overall 5 years earlier.

 

It's Epstein's fault that the team didn't have a good 3b already in place, along with a decent bullpen and some other parts, so that the games in September were being used for that purpose rather than to try to advance to the playoffs.

 

No. It's Hendry's. And Vitters putting up -1.2 last year exemplifies that as much as anything. Why don't we have a very good 3b? Oh bc we don't have unlimited funds and Hendry didn't draft or acquire any for the farm system.

 

If Theo was worried about your praise, he probably would have just signed ARam bc it would have netted a couple more wins and who cares about the future. Thankfully he's using these years of overhaul wisely instead.

 

I'm not so sure not bringing back Ramirez wasn't a mistake in hindsight, but I'm not all that mad about it given my stance at the time.

[SouthSideRyan]

If Theo was worried about your praise, he probably would have just signed ARam bc it would have netted a couple more wins and who cares about the future. Thankfully he's using these years of overhaul wisely instead.

 

This stupidity is why I chimed in on Kyle's message about backup MIF

[Tracer Bullet]

If Theo was worried about your praise, he probably would have just signed ARam bc it would have netted a couple more wins and who cares about the future. Thankfully he's using these years of overhaul wisely instead.

 

This stupidity is why I chimed in on Kyle's message about backup MIF

 

Rawr

[SouthSideRyan]

If Theo was worried about your praise, he probably would have just signed ARam bc it would have netted a couple more wins and who cares about the future. Thankfully he's using these years of overhaul wisely instead.

 

This stupidity is why I chimed in on Kyle's message about backup MIF

 

The Cubs got ~ negative 1 bWAR from their 3B last year, and Ramirez put up 5.6. If you take the Cubs 69 win pace from when they stopped trying you've got a 75-76 win team.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

When is it ever a good idea to expend more than minimal assets for backup MI and bullpen spots?

 

Well, it's almost always a good idea to spend more than minimal assets for bullpen spots.

 

But the more important point that you missed is that the problem wasn't the asset allocation, it was the actual decisions they made. They should have gotten much more out of the bench and bullpen last year even with minimal investment.

 

Not wanting to invest isn't an excuse for having that many below-replacement players on the bench, or having a dead-last bullpen that costs the team 7-8 wins against average according to WPA. A good front office should be able to outperform that without expending assets.

 

So the question is, why didn't we do better? I've generally seen two responses to that question.

 

The first is "Who cares, the team was so bad that it didn't matter." I hate this argument (Yes, MR, I know you don't care) for two good reasons. First, it inevitably leads us to debating the post-2011 Cubs for about the eight millionth time.

 

Second, this is a front office that tries very hard to put forth the image that they won't be outworked on the little things. They brag about having hours-long meetings about which foot to hit the bag with. They speak lovingly of scouring the waiver wire every day. They give each prospect a book outlining how they are expected to do everything about being a baseball player. So when little things go badly, having to hear "Well, this front office can't be expected to care about that, it's too little" is pretty tilt-inducing. It's bordering on the exact sort of trolling argument that I'm frequently accused of employing.

 

The other would-be explanation is that we had so much terrible fodder on the back half of the roster because they didn't inherit enough, which is almost a worse argument than the previous ones. Unlike many posters afaict, I actually remember 2011.

 

The argument was consistently made at the time that while we lacked impact talent, we were crawling with interesting, young, cheap guys who could fill the back half of a roster. The front office traded some of it, left some of it unprotected in the Rule 5 draft. Some of it improved and got promoted to more important roles, some of it got worse and ended up stuck in AAA for long periods of time. But in aggregate, that back-half cheap talent *was* in place when they took over.

 

Epstein is even on the record calling some of those moves mistakes. So would it really be *that* hard to put aside the reflexive defense of all things Theo and say "Well, I think the stuff they are doing right will be more important in the long run, but they definitely have screwed that up?"

[Tracer Bullet]

If Theo was worried about your praise, he probably would have just signed ARam bc it would have netted a couple more wins and who cares about the future. Thankfully he's using these years of overhaul wisely instead.

 

This stupidity is why I chimed in on Kyle's message about backup MIF

 

The Cubs got ~ negative 1 bWAR from their 3B last year, and Ramirez put up 5.6. If you take the Cubs 69 win pace from when they stopped trying you've got a 75-76 win team.

 

Amazing. He out ops'd zips by nearly 1.000. He was projected by pecota for a 2.2 WAR which he more than doubled. He even exceeded Bill James predictions.

 

Look if Theo knew what ARam would do in 2012 he likely signs him last year. But hindsight is helpful here. Given the information available I don't think I would have signed him to that contract either.

 

What do I know though. Those 76 wins would have jumped us up 0 spots in the standings last year. Guess I'm the dummy.

[davell]

If Theo was worried about your praise, he probably would have just signed ARam bc it would have netted a couple more wins and who cares about the future. Thankfully he's using these years of overhaul wisely instead.

 

This stupidity is why I chimed in on Kyle's message about backup MIF

 

The Cubs got ~ negative 1 bWAR from their 3B last year, and Ramirez put up 5.6. If you take the Cubs 69 win pace from when they stopped trying you've got a 75-76 win team.

I'm not trying to be condescending here, but what good does that actually do? Do you think Aramis is likely to do that for the next 2 years as well?

[SouthSideRyan]

If Theo was worried about your praise, he probably would have just signed ARam bc it would have netted a couple more wins and who cares about the future. Thankfully he's using these years of overhaul wisely instead.

 

This stupidity is why I chimed in on Kyle's message about backup MIF

 

The Cubs got ~ negative 1 bWAR from their 3B last year, and Ramirez put up 5.6. If you take the Cubs 69 win pace from when they stopped trying you've got a 75-76 win team.

 

Amazing. He out ops'd zips by nearly 1.000. He was projected by pecota for a 2.2 WAR which he more than doubled. He even exceeded Bill James predictions.

 

Look if Theo knew what ARam would do in 2012 he likely signs him last year. But hindsight is helpful here. Given the information available I don't think I would have signed him to that contract either.

 

What do I know though. Those 76 wins would have jumped us up 0 spots in the standings last year. Guess I'm the dummy.

 

Right, unless a move (even one that's a great value like ARam) puts you at 90 wins, you shouldn't make it.

 

Again, I ask how furious you were over all those free agents we signed this offseason? Hoho, hehe, how stupid for us to sign a competent RF this year!! So glad we'll win 71 this year instead of 67!!

[SouthSideRyan]

If Theo was worried about your praise, he probably would have just signed ARam bc it would have netted a couple more wins and who cares about the future. Thankfully he's using these years of overhaul wisely instead.

 

This stupidity is why I chimed in on Kyle's message about backup MIF

 

The Cubs got ~ negative 1 bWAR from their 3B last year, and Ramirez put up 5.6. If you take the Cubs 69 win pace from when they stopped trying you've got a 75-76 win team.

I'm not trying to be condescending here, but what good does that actually do? Do you think Aramis is likely to do that for the next 2 years as well?

 

It puts the team within thinking of possibly having a chance at making the playoffs at some point this decade.

[SouthSideRyan]

How much do you think our 78 win PECTOA projection grows with Ramirez at 3B vs. what we actually came into the season with? Is a team projected to put up 81 wins enough to actually attempt to compete?

[Sosa21MVP]

How much do you think our 78 win PECTOA projection grows with Ramirez at 3B vs. what we actually came into the season with? Is a team projected to put up 81 wins enough to actually attempt to compete?

 

In this division, playing .500 ball is going to keep a team in the race for a while.

[Guest]

How much do you think our 78 win PECTOA projection grows with Ramirez at 3B vs. what we actually came into the season with? Is a team projected to put up 81 wins enough to actually attempt to compete?

 

In this division, playing .500 ball is going to keep a team in the race for a while.

 

Are you imlpying that this division is weak?

[davell]

Kyle, those WERE mistakes. Luckily, they're tiny ones and CAN be filed under the "didn't know the roster well enough yet". The silver lining though, is we have plenty more guys to replace those players minimum level type production. Second silver lining: Both major trades that were made-Cashner for Rizzo and even Marshall for Wood/Sappelt/Torreyed are looking very good currently. And now that they definiteky know the roster better, the small mistakes hopefully start to disappear. No FO is mistake-free, to me, I'm glad we got the more important ones correct before the roster was truly known. And more depth has been added on all fronts from last year to this one, conceivably making the selloff at least slightly less painful to go through as well.