The 2012 Offseason Thread

[Clem Fandango]

Heh heh... the Astros got worse

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That chart is awesome. Notice that most of the below .500 teams got better and the above .500 teams got worse. Bless you, Plexiglass Principle.

[Guest]

Here's the article from which that chart comes

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324449104578314463726340052.html

[MSG T]

Here's the article from which that chart comes

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324449104578314463726340052.html

 

 

2. CUBS (+8.2) Key acquisitions: SP Edwin Jackson (2.8), RP Carlos Villanueva (1.4) Key losses: None Outlook: They didn't make any splashy deals, but the Cubs made several smaller moves that should make this rebuilding year somewhat less miserable than the last one.

 

Obviously written before the Campana trade..

[seanimal]

http://i.imgur.com/HHIEG8N.jpg

 

is arizona's adjusted for the addition of campana?

[Sammy Sofa]

The Campana trade might comically impact both the Cubs' and Diamondbacks' rankings!

[MSG T]

I love that next to the Rangers is a picture of Pierzynski.

[craig]

I think the Cubs score so well not necessarily because they added so much, but because they lost so little and won so few. Easy to add wins relative to such a low frame of reference. And much of the war they lost (Dempster, Maholm) was not lost during the offseason. If you did the same WAR differential relative to July 15, would the Cubs not score that highly?

 

It's cool, though. And I'm not trying to minimize the quality of what they've done. I've been very happy with what they did.

[Guest]

I think the Cubs score so well not necessarily because they added so much, but because they lost so little and won so few. Easy to add wins relative to such a low frame of reference. And much of the war they lost (Dempster, Maholm) was not lost during the offseason. If you did the same WAR differential relative to July 15, would the Cubs not score that highly?

 

It's cool, though. And I'm not trying to minimize the quality of what they've done. I've been very happy with what they did.

Right, it also makes the Astros projection that much worse for them. It's pretty hard to get worse when you are so bad. I wonder what their game plan is.

[Guest]

I think the Cubs score so well not necessarily because they added so much, but because they lost so little and won so few. Easy to add wins relative to such a low frame of reference. And much of the war they lost (Dempster, Maholm) was not lost during the offseason. If you did the same WAR differential relative to July 15, would the Cubs not score that highly?

 

It's cool, though. And I'm not trying to minimize the quality of what they've done. I've been very happy with what they did.

 

The first part would explain why you don't see 90 win teams adding 10 wins of expected WAR, but each team has more than a few opportunities to add to their roster if they're willing. The Cubs didn't enter the offseason with a dozen open positions in the lineup and rotation that just plugged in anyone to accrue a bunch of value. The point on when they lost value from the 2012 team is a valid one, but if they had held on to them they'd also be coming from a higher baseline than you point out in the first part as well.

[mookie]

I don't understand why the Braves are so low. They have the best outfield in baseball now.

 

I guess I am forgetting other things. :huh:

[Guest]

I don't understand why the Braves are so low. They have the best outfield in baseball now.

Trout/Hamilton/empty grass

 

Or add in Trumbo/Bourjos/Wells

[mookie]

Yeah, I don't agree with that.

[Thed Hoyerstein]

I don't understand why the Braves are so low. They have the best outfield in baseball now.

Trout/Hamilton/empty grass

 

Or add in Trumbo/Bourjos/Wells

 

Trout/Hamilton/Campana would still be up there for best OF in baseball.

 

ARM THE TEACHERS WITH CAMPANAS.

[Guest]

I don't understand why the Braves are so low. They have the best outfield in baseball now.

 

I guess I am forgetting other things. :huh:

 

 

27. BRAVES (-4.2) Key acquisitions: OF B.J. Upton (3.5), OF Justin Upton (3.0) Key losses: OF Michael Bourn (4.0), OF Martin Prado (3.3) Outlook: It'll be strange seeing the Braves without Chipper Jones, who retired, but there's still enough talent here for them to be one of the NL's best teams.

[Guest]

Yeah, I don't agree with that.

You prefer Upton/Upton/Heyward over Trumbo/Trout/Hamilton?

 

Just throwing last year's WAR out there...

 

Heyward 6.6

JUpton 2.5

BUpton 3.3

 

Trout 10.0 (as good as Heyward and either upton put together)

Trumbo 2.4

Bourjos 1.9 (take your pick)

Hamilton 4.4

 

I'll take the Angels.

[Guest]

Yea, I think I have to take the Angels too, although I wouldn't expect Trout to be quite as insanely good as he was last year...but that's just because he was so ridiculously insanely good.

[mookie]

Last year is last year. I am just one of those homer guys that loves the Upton brothers being together and thinking it will bring out the best in both. Add to that assumption the full on sex flavor of Heyward and I just don't see the Angels topping it.

[Guest]

Amusingly, ZiPS agrees that Trout/Hamilton/Empty space > Upton/Upton/Heyward, 12 WAR to 11.

[mookie]

Of course, if Justin continues to "under perform" then it won't be quite as intriguing over there in Atlanta.

[Guest]

Last year is last year. I am just one of those homer guys that loves the Upton brothers being together and thinking it will bring out the best in both. Add to that assumption the full on sex flavor of Heyward and I just don't see the Angels topping it.

 

Anyway, the reason the Braves are low is because they lost a bunch of productive players along with adding those guys. Their offseason projects to be a net negative.

[mookie]

Last year is last year. I am just one of those homer guys that loves the Upton brothers being together and thinking it will bring out the best in both. Add to that assumption the full on sex flavor of Heyward and I just don't see the Angels topping it.

 

Anyway, the reason the Braves are low is because they lost a bunch of productive players along with adding those guys. Their offseason projects to be a net negative.

 

Their outfield is just so bright and shiny. It blinds my awareness of the rest of their roster.

[Tracer Bullet]

Braves get bonus points for the "Upton here, Upton here" thing a few weeks ago. But the angels have a ridiculous OF.

 

Also, the OF is just 3 of 25 guys on the roster. Even if you love their OF, it's easy to see why they aren't the best team in baseball.

[mookie]

That's cool. Funnily enough, I never said they were the best team in baseball.

[Backtobanks]

From MLBTR:

Scott Downs wants to remain with the Angels and the southpaw tells MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez that he would be willing to negotiate an extension during the season. Downs' representatives at CAA have told the Angels' front office about their client's wishes but have yet to get a response. Downs turns 37 in March and has pitched very well in Anaheim, posting a 2.17 ERA over 99 1/3 innings in his first two years of his three-year, $15MM contract. He turns 37 in March, however, and Gonzalez speculates that the Angels may let Downs go since Sean Burnett and Nick Maronde are in the fold as left-handed bullpen options.

 

If the Angels dump him, Downs might be an interesting option as a situational lefty in the bullpen.