Positional Depth and Grades

[davell]

Raw brought up a great point about exactly HOW loaded our system was with hitting, so I wanted to try and break things down positionally, to see where we need to improve.

 

C- Castillo, Brenly, Gibbgs, Cabezas, Contreras, Rosario/Marra

Yuck. Castillo may indeed wind up as a starter for us very soon, but after him, it's dreadful. No actual prospects in full season ball whatsoever.

Grade: D+

 

CIF- Rizzo/Vitters, Bour/Cerda, Ridling/Rohan, Hoilman/Geiger, Shoulders/Candelario, Vogelbach/Gretzky

Bigtime prospect in Rizzo, solid prospect in Vitters. Geiger has done things, to make us at least keep an eye on him, Shoulders and Vogelbach both have major power and Candelario has caught everyone's attention. Without looking, this could be as good a group as their is in the minors, on the corners. Obviously, that goes away as soon as Rizzo moves on, but there's plenty of talent even when he moves up.

Grade: A-

 

MIF- AAA is barren, Lake/Watkins, Alcantara/Torreyes/Silva, Baez/Darvill/DeVoss, Amaya/Bruno/Hernandez, Penalver/Lockhart

Lake will move off, Baez will as well most likely. Unsure if DeVoss or Amaya truly have a position, although it's looking like Amaya does. Alcantara and Hernandez both have the ability to stick at SS defensively and Penalver has been said to have that ability as well. Silva looks like he's a future utility guy, Torreyes has the ability to be much more than that, from the looks of things, now that's basically gotten it together in Daytona somewhat. One bigtime prospect in Baez, another guy who has the tools to make it there soon, in Lake, very talented, upside guys in the lower levels with breakout potential, including Alcantara, Torreyes, Hernandez, and Amaya. We've done an excellent job here.

Grade: A-

 

OF- Jackson/Sappelt, Burgess/Ha, Andreoli/Szczur, Balaguert/Chen/Easterling/Golden/Zapata, Dunston/Kim, Martin/Schlect, and Soler and Almora.

A fairly pedestrian group, after Brett and Szczur, who each have plenty of issues of their own. until you get to Soler and Almora, who crank this group up quite a bit. I don't see many breakout type guys here, other than possibly Dunston or Martin. 4/5 OFers? Sure, we've got some of them, but so does everyone else. It's great to get an influx of top flight talent here in Soler and Almora.

Grade: B+

 

RHSP- Jackson, Beeler/McNutt/Rhee/Struck, Cates/Loosen/Francescon/Whitenack, Jensen/Peralta/Rosario/Wells, Arias/Pugliese/Simpson/Scott, Maples/Kim. With Johnson, Blackburn, Underwood, McNeil, Conway and others getting drafted.

Awful- McNutt has regressed, as has Rhee and Beeler. Whitenack is trying to get healthy, while Wells just did the opposite. Maples has yet to pitch, so we have to pray on guys like Rosario, Jensen, and Arias for now. We certainly addressed pitching in a very large way this draft though, so hopefully that makes a dent into things. But, it's still a deficiency of the system, even if some of these guys work out well. Hopefully, a Dempster deal and if we decide to trade Garza, really improves this area as well. I have hope for guys like Scott and Pugliese, but it's way too far away. I think if I could, I'd actually place a bet that there's not a single minor league RHSP in our system that's ever made a minor league pitch for us, will EVER make more than 25 starts for our major league club. That's sad to say.

Grade: D(Oonly that high because we addressed it in the draft as well as we could)

 

LHSP- Rusin/Raley, Jokisch, Burke/Del Valle/Kirk/Rosscup, Concepcion, Cruz, Smith. Drafted Prieto, even though he probably winds up a reliever.

Not good at all. But, a few 5th starter types that may wind up pitching for a while for someone in the bigs. Rusin, Raley, and Kirk all have that kind of ability at least, if they get the shot. Concepcion and Burke are wild cards at this point. We could certainly use a guy that's got more upside added here, either next year through the draft, or this year via trade. Very poor group overall.

Group: D

 

RP- Beliveau/Caridad/Dolis, Antigua/Cabrera/Rhoderick/Batista/Harman/Hatley, Morris/Searle/Zych, Cervenka/Liria/Wang/Reed, Pretty much listed any actual pitching prospects in Boise or Arizona as starters. Lang is almost definitely a pen guy once he gets going.

Hard to really rank, as all teams have bullpen arms and also convert many starters as well, once things don't work out. Still, I really like some of our power arms. Cabrera, Rhodrick, Zych, and Hatley in particular. Dolis is probably going to wind up a fixture at some point still, I'd imagine, Could see a guy like Jay Jackson or Struck being sent to the pen as well and it working out, on some level. Beliveau will get his shot pretty soon too. All in all, I guess we're OK here, surely we can develop 3-4 of these guys into major league pitchers, maybe even a closer, if we're lucky.

Grade: C

 

In the grand scheme of things, I think our system winds up somewhere in the 8-10 range next year, unless we trade Dempster AND Garza, where the deals are both for prospects alone, no major league talent at all coming back. Maybe we could move up a bit further that way. But, I'll put Toronto, Texas, STL, Seattle, and Arizona ahead of us, no matter what we do. With Boston, Pittsburgh, SD, KC, Baltimore, TB, and us being in the next group, trades helping us surpass a few of those teams.

Edited June 22, 2012 by davell

[Wrigley Rat]

Raw brought up a great point about exactly HOW loaded our system was with hitting, so I wanted to try and break things down positionally, to see where we need to improve.

 

C- Castillo, Brenly, Gibbgs, Cabezas, Contreras, Rosario/Marra

 

...

 

In the grand scheme of things, I think our system winds up somewhere in the 8-10 range next year, unless we trade Dempster AND Garza, where the deals are both for prospects alone, no major league talent at all coming back. Maybe we could move up a bit further that way. But, I'll put Toronto, Texas, STL, Seattle, and Arizona ahead of us, no matter what we do. With Boston, Pittsburgh, SD, KC, Baltimore, TB, and us being in the next group, trades helping us surpass a few of those teams.

Nicely done.

[rawaction]

Thanks for giving me props, but I don't think I brought it up, just talked about how strong the MIF group is.

 

My analysis of your analysis...

 

I think you're a little rough on the catchers. Castillo makes that a C- to D+ grade, IMO. The rest of that group is terrible, but you do have a guy in Castillo, who I think could potentially solidify the C position for the Cubs for a little while in the very near future. I weigh that pretty heavily.

 

I think you're a little generous on corner IF. Rizzo is big-time. Candelario apparently has big-time potential. But after that I'm not too impressed. Shoulders doesn't project long-term to me. He's young enough and walks and hits for power, but he has also struck out in 37% of his ABs so far in his career (almost 1/2 this year) and that doesn't project to get much better, IMO. I really like(d) Vogelbach, but him not being past Mesa at this point isn't encouraging. I'd probably have this group at a solid B.

 

I think the grade is dead on at MIF. Baez is a potential star, and I wouldn't take him out of SS just yet. Don't know much about the AZL guys, but I think every other player on that list of MIFs could eventually be contributors in the majors, and it doesn't take much for a MIF to be an above average player.

 

I actually really like the relievers in the system. I think you get a couple mainstays at RP between Beliveau, Dolis, Hatley, Zych, Rhoderick, Cabrera, and even Jackson and Struck who you mentioned. C is probably a decent grade because after all, they're just relievers, but I would be tempted to put that group in the B- range.

[davell]

Yeah, I probably needed to give Castillo a bit more credit there. Moved grade to D+ for catchers. As far as the CIF went, I put a ton of stock in Rizzo obviously, plus a little in Vitters being conceivably close to the majors anyway. Love Candelario's bat, probably as high on him as anyone here. Think he'll be a top 100 type as soon as midseason of next year. To me, the bat's just much more important than the eventual position. I have to admit, I'm souring on Vogelbach, but he certainly needs to play some, before that becomes permanent. I'll stick with my grade on CIF, but can definitely see some going a bit lower.

[Guest]

No credit for the DSL guys?

[davell]

No credit for the DSL guys?

I thought about including some of the big bonus guys, but they're so far away. AZPhil's reports on Malave seemed very encouraging, but I just didn't think we have nearly enough to go on yet. And I've asked Badler more than once about Jose Paulino, but can't get an answer. Acosta and Marcano, maybe Baez, all figure to be in Arizona for good by this time next year as well, but I doubt we have a guy from there this year we want to include in our top 30's, so I left them off completely.

[toonsterwu]

Interesting analysis. Random thoughts, fully noting that grades are subjective:

 

C - I think the depth is fine, but it's debatable, up and down the system, if there's a potential quality starting catcher in the mix. That said, there's an outside chance of a couple backup backstops in full-season ball, and Castillo has some ceiling, so like raw, I tend to think a D+ is a bit harsh. That said, Castillo plus some raw talents in the low levels ... I think that's enough to go C on it. Take a look at catching depth in most systems - I can't think of many organizations with catching depth that is definitely superior to ours (maybe a handful of organizations come to mind, mostly because they have a top talent). I still have some mild, mild intrigue with PED using Luis Flores.

 

CIF - A- seems awfully generous. I see one top prospect (Rizzo), one "keep an eye on how he does in the next few months" in Vitters, and some raw guys far away, with one guy likely having a high ceiling (Candelario). If I had to plop grades on them ... I think that'd be one A-/B+ guy in Rizzo, maybe a borderline B+ guy in Candelario, and B's or lowers on the rest. When you factor in that there isn't really a guy that projects as an above average defensive third baseman, A- seems awfully generous. But that's me. I guess I could go B+ on it.

 

MIF - I think this is a stronger overall group than the CIF group ... but the lack of a top talent in the upper levels makes it tough for me to buy A- as well. I don't know ... I guess, A- suggests quality depth and a potential impact guy in the upper levels, and while the depth is there, the impact guy in the upper levels seems debatable. I think there's a case for CIF to have a higher grade than MIF, because there is raw talent at CIF in the lower levels and an impact guy. I really don't know if I'd put Logan Watkins in that grouping anymore either (that is, don't really see him as a guy to, say, keep an eye out for ... I guess he could barely hang on as there are some tools). I guess I'd lean towards B+ on account of Baez's ceiling ... but the lack of a quality upper level guy that definitely sticks in MI (as you note, Lake likely moves off) makes it hard for me to go A- on it.

 

As a side note, anyone besides me find it interesting that Torreyes' K rate has really risen this month?

 

OF - See, here's a case where I think this is a group that could deserve an A-. Really comes down to how one views Brett and Matt. I tend to think both will see time in the bigs, likely be decent starters. If one believes that (and I'm sure many might disagree), then the fact that there's upper level talent, plus defensive CF's, and a high ceiling talent like Soler, plus an intriguing kid in Almora ... that's nice. Add in some raw toolsy guys to keep an eye on, and it's a good mix, with some power ceiling.

 

RHSP - It's a bad grouping right now. Rhee's been a disappointment (although ... there's an intriguing statistical note with him - his GB rate has been steadily rising ... so if a breaking pitch ever came along ... ). I won't take you up on that bet ... but I do think there is probably a guy in our system, maybe even two, that will end up making 20+ starts in the big leagues. The thing is, I'm just not sure it'll be with us (and if you asked me to pick a guy right now ... I'd go with Wells or Whitenack, even with the injury situations for both ... with Arias 3rd). I'm still in a wait and see mode on the draft class ... a lot of arms, but how many of those guys, on paper, really look to have a chance to be impact arms?

 

LHSP - I don't know if I agree with the grade. I'd probably nudge it up a bit. But that's quibbling. I have no idea how he's doing, but if he gets healthy, I'm still intrigued with Graham Hicks. Saw him a few years back ... some room for projection (granted ... room for projection doesn't mean he will ... )

 

Pen - Strictly looking at potential end of the game type arms, and you don't see that many, unless some starters move to the pen,, I wonder if a C is ... a bit high. I've never been a huge fan of Dolis ... loved the upside, didn't like the excuses for why he wasn't K'ing that many people. I like Cabrera/Hatley, but it's also not hard to envision a situation where inconsistency means those guys aren't closers. I like the Conway addition and think he could make a difference. If Zych's breaking stuff tightens up, and he maintains his quality command, he might jump. But he's still behind Cabrera/Hatley for me.

 

Agree with the conclusion. I've said, as of right now, I think this is an 8-12 system. I don't know if we can crack top 5, though, even with good trades. You'd basically need at least two upper level impact prospects to really add to the group, preferably both pitchers, to think that this is a top 5 system. But it's improving.

Edited June 22, 2012 by toonsterwu

[pccubfan]

toonsterwu,

 

Where are you accounting for Baez in your ratings?

[davell]

I look at Torreyes K rate as being excellent. Even in June, it's 7 times in 56 at bats. May was 1 time in 73 at bats, and he somehow only managed 10 hits for a .137 BA. April was 7 times in 73 at bats too, so if anything June just seems like he's coming back down to normal a bit, but it's excellent altogether, considering his age and being in high A ball.

[toonsterwu]

toonsterwu,

 

Where are you accounting for Baez in your ratings?

 

MIF for now ... so far away with some decent defensive reports, so sure, keep him there. His ceiling lifts that group to a possible B+ for me, I guess, because while I love some of the lower level guys, they are lower level guys that are far away, and Hernandez had one good and one bad month in Peoria.

 

If you moved Baez to the CIF mix, then that group's a rock solid A for me, with MIF more of B. But that's me, and it's too early to shift Baez off of any MIF considerations.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Hard not to get excited about out infield of the future. Between Castro, Lake, Vitters, Baez, Candelrerio, Amaya, Hernandez, Torreyes, and to a lesser extent, Alcantara, and DeVoss, I can't imagine not being able to put together something awesome.

[Guest]

Reggie Golden is going to be really good.

[rawaction]

Reggie Golden is going to be really good.

 

Is this a serious post?

[weis21]

This post could go in any number of minor league threads, but this seems like a good fit.

 

Just want to say thanks to the handful of extremely knowledgeable and diligent minor league gurus that post here. Im pretty new to following the minors even somewhat closely (probably 2-3 years) but you all do a great job. When the ML club looks like they do this year, then you have to find the silver lining somewhere. The MiLB forum is usually the first place I go and you all make it that much easier to follow. Thanks again.

 

Sent from my ADR6400L using Tapatalk 2

[Shilzzz]

Dreaming of an infield someday of:

 

Rizzo/Vogelbach, Castro, Baez, Candelario.

 

Outfield I don't like as much, but Vogelbach in left, maybe Jackson in center, and ? In right.

[Guest]

Dreaming of an infield someday of:

 

Rizzo/Vogelbach, Castro, Baez, Candelario.

 

Outfield I don't like as much, but Vogelbach in left, maybe Jackson in center, and ? In right.

Uh, Soler? Almora? Szczur?

 

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using Tapatalk 2

[Shilzzz]

Nice... Looking good

[Little Slide Rooter]

Dreaming of an infield someday of:

 

Rizzo/Vogelbach, Castro, Baez, Candelario.

 

Outfield I don't like as much, but Vogelbach in left, maybe Jackson in center, and ? In right.

 

Will he be using a Segway?

[TruffleShuffle]

Vogelbach in left

 

is this a joke?

[toonsterwu]

I don't know if it was posted, and since I don't actually have BP, I don't think I should cut and paste what someone posted on TCR, but reading KG's comments on Burke from the MWL ASG, and how he was sitting high 80's in a short stint, makes me a bit wary of getting too excited on Kyler. I really hope he finds some juice on that fastball, but there's been a lot of reports this year where he's only topping out in the low 90's.

 

Doesn't mean he's not a semi-intriguing arm, but I think some of the high expectations of the past, largely off of AzPhil's excitement, should probably be tempered a bit.

[davell]

Toonster, his brother said they told him 10 minutes beforehand when he was pitching, and didn't give him time to get loose. Probably a poor time for KG to see him honestly.

[Named After Maddux]

I was at that game. He barely had anytime to get warmed up because the starter was getting just shelled. He went from just getting stretched and throwing a couple pitches to having to really ramp it up and go pitch. He's used to the extra time to warm up being a starter. Hopefully this is something to really practice as he moves up the ladder. Also just a note: ball was flying all night. Kyler needs to work on things, but I wasn't discouraged that much by that outing.

[Guest]

He was sitting around 85 on the presumably slow Kane County gun when I saw him pitch there several weeks ago. I don't think we can honestly think of him as a guy who regularly breaks 90.

[toonsterwu]

Toonster, his brother said they told him 10 minutes beforehand when he was pitching, and didn't give him time to get loose. Probably a poor time for KG to see him honestly.

 

Sure, but that's a lot of reports this year putting him in the high-80's this year. I know at least one other public report (I believe Arguello at CubsDen saw him this year and had him at 88-90, with a couple balls a tick higher, which jived with the comments he got from Fleita). Amongst others, I know a road game where he was reportedly topping out at 90.