Cubs current fWAR numbers

[davell]

Close to midseason, figured it'd be interesting to see where some of our guys stand and what we can take from it. Some aren't surprising at all, some are a tad confusing to me, to be honest. I'monly putting guys on here that have been in the majors for the majority of the season.

 

Soto-(-.1)

LaHair-1.5

Barney-1.1

Castro-2.1

Stewart-0.2

Soriano-1.8

DeJesus-0.3

Campana-0.5

Clevenger-(-.1)

Baker-(-.4)

Johnson-0.5

Mather- 0.1

Garza-1.0

Samardzija-1.8

Dempster-1.8

Maholm-0.4

Marmol-(-.3)

Russell-0.1

Camp-0.4

Volstad-0.6

T Wood-(-.1)

Dolis-(-.5)

Wells-(-.1)

 

OK, my first question is why is Dejesus so low? I understand WAR is not an end-all, be-all stat, but my eyes have told me Dejesus has been pretty decent. The other thing I have a hard time seeing is Volstad vs. Wood. I understand Volstad has appeared to be relatively unlucky, but I guess these things even out over the course of the season. I guess this is why WAR isn't perfect, because I'm quite content with what DeJesus has done, same with Travis Wood. Meanwhile I thought Volstad sucked.

[jersey cubs fan]

OK, my first question is why is Dejesus so low? I understand WAR is not an end-all, be-all stat, but my eyes have told me Dejesus has been pretty decent.

 

His OPS has been below average for a RF. So, you could say he's been decent but that's about it.

[Little Slide Rooter]

And how is Volstad as high as he is? Do they really by into the whole he's decent aside from his one horrible inning shennanigans.

[Guest]

And how is Volstad as high as he is? Do they really by into the whole he's decent aside from his one horrible inning shennanigans.

 

Holy [expletive], seriously, do you ever read what you are replying to?

[Guest]

Also, the reason Volstad's fWAR numbers look better than you'd expect is because fWAR, IIRC, is based more on peripherals and FIP/xFIP.

 

Volstad's actual results (7.46 ERA) were much worse than his FIP (4.01) and xFIP (4.64) would suggest.

[El Duderino]

Volstad's bWAR is -1.2

[CubColtPacer]

Yeah, the main thing to remember when looking at fangraphs numbers is that they look at hitters and pitchers differently.

 

For hitters, they look at their results no matter how they got there. So a hitters WAR more accurately reflects how they have helped their team win, but needs to be adjusted for luck in order to have any predictive power.

 

For pitchers, they look at their peripherals (specifically K, BB, and HR ratios). So for pitchers it tries to account for luck and looks at what should have happened, not what did happen. It's more predictive, but less reflective of their results.

 

So in Volstad and Wood's case, since their K/BB ratio is very similar and Volstad gave up a lot less home runs than Wood has, he has a much better FIP which is what a pitcher's WAR is based on. xFIP and SIERA, both which try to iron out the variability in home run rates that FIP doesn't account for, have them as virtually identical pitchers in the predictive sense so far this year.

[BeerHere]

Yeah, the main thing to remember when looking at fangraphs numbers is that they look at hitters and pitchers differently.

 

For hitters, they look at their results no matter how they got there. So a hitters WAR more accurately reflects how they have helped their team win, but needs to be adjusted for luck in order to have any predictive power.

 

For pitchers, they look at their peripherals (specifically K, BB, and HR ratios). So for pitchers it tries to account for luck and looks at what should have happened, not what did happen. It's more predictive, but less reflective of their results.

 

So in Volstad and Wood's case, since their K/BB ratio is very similar and Volstad gave up a lot less home runs than Wood has, he has a much better FIP which is what a pitcher's WAR is based on. xFIP and SIERA, both which try to iron out the variability in home run rates that FIP doesn't account for, have them as virtually identical pitchers in the predictive sense so far this year.

This is why I love this site. Well said.

[sneakypower]

UZR's been really unimpressed with DeJesus's defense so far, rating him -5.6 after a +10.1 (for RF) season last year; i'd expect him and Campana to post better defensive scores than what they've done so far, presuming they stay at RF and CF

 

also, his wOBA has been hurt a bit by his 2-for-7 SB rate

[mul21]

Yeah, the main thing to remember when looking at fangraphs numbers is that they look at hitters and pitchers differently.

 

For hitters, they look at their results no matter how they got there. So a hitters WAR more accurately reflects how they have helped their team win, but needs to be adjusted for luck in order to have any predictive power.

 

For pitchers, they look at their peripherals (specifically K, BB, and HR ratios). So for pitchers it tries to account for luck and looks at what should have happened, not what did happen. It's more predictive, but less reflective of their results.

 

So in Volstad and Wood's case, since their K/BB ratio is very similar and Volstad gave up a lot less home runs than Wood has, he has a much better FIP which is what a pitcher's WAR is based on. xFIP and SIERA, both which try to iron out the variability in home run rates that FIP doesn't account for, have them as virtually identical pitchers in the predictive sense so far this year.

This is why I love this site. Well said.

 

Yeah, it would have taken me an hour of internet surfing to get that through my thick skull without that concise summary. Thanks!

[Vanilla Ice]

For comparison, here are their bWAR numbers

 

Name	       bWAR
Baker	     -0.4
Barney	     3.2
Campana	    0.8
Cardenas	    -0.2
Castillo	   0.1
Castro	   2.7
Clevenger	  -0.2
DeJesus	    0.6
DeWitt	    -0.3
Hill	       -0.3
Johnson	     0.4
LaHair	    1.1
Mather	   -0.4
Soriano	    0.6
Soto	        -0.2
Stewart	  -0.1
Valbuena	  0.2


Dempster	   2.3
Corpas	     0.5
Russell	    0.4
Camp	       0.3
Samardzija 	0.3
T. Wood	    0.3
Garza	      0.2
Castillo	  -0.2
Maholm    	-0.2
Bowden  	  -0.3
Maine  	   -0.3
Wells	     -0.3
Marmol	    -0.5
K. Wood	   -0.5
Dolis	      -0.8
Volstad	   -1.2

[davell]

bWAR goes off of production alone, right? If so, what the hell is up with Barney and Soriano offensively? Plus, I don't really see why Shark and Garza are AS low as they are either. Oh and big thanks to CCP for his previous explanation.

[Guest]

bWAR goes off of production alone, right? If so, what the hell is up with Barney and Soriano offensively?

They're off the charts defensively this year.

[davell]

bWAR goes off of production alone, right? If so, what the hell is up with Barney and Soriano offensively?

They're off the charts defensively this year.

Soriano is? Then how is he so low? I see Barney's deal now, I guess. Am I wrong to think the two measure defensive metrics differently? Maybe bWAR uses a different one than fWAR does, plus maybe puts more emphasis on it as well?

[El Duderino]

soriano's dWAR is actually -0.6. it's UZR that likes him

 

barney's dWAR is 2.3(!)

[Vanilla Ice]

Darwin Barney is actually 6th in the NL in bWAR for position players.

 

Castro is 8th.

 

 

Barney has 0.7 more dWAR than anybody else in the NL.

 

NL dWAR leaderboard

Darwin Barney 2.3

Starlin Castro 1.6

Michael Bourn 1.4

[Productive Outs]

bWAR goes off of production alone, right? If so, what the hell is up with Barney and Soriano offensively?

They're off the charts defensively this year.

Soriano is? Then how is he so low? I see Barney's deal now, I guess. Am I wrong to think the two measure defensive metrics differently? Maybe bWAR uses a different one than fWAR does, plus maybe puts more emphasis on it as well?

 

fWAR uses UZR (Total Zone Rating prior to 2002). bWAR uses something called "Defense Runs Saved with Batted Ball Timer" by Baseball Info Solutions 2003 and after, and TZR before that.

 

This table is very handy

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_comparison.shtml

[davell]

bWAR goes off of production alone, right? If so, what the hell is up with Barney and Soriano offensively?

They're off the charts defensively this year.

Soriano is? Then how is he so low? I see Barney's deal now, I guess. Am I wrong to think the two measure defensive metrics differently? Maybe bWAR uses a different one than fWAR does, plus maybe puts more emphasis on it as well?

 

fWAR uses UZR (Total Zone Rating prior to 2002). bWAR uses something called "Defense Runs Saved with Batted Ball Timer" by Baseball Info Solutions 2003 and after, and TZR before that.

 

This table is very handy

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_comparison.shtml

 

Yep. Thanks a bunch.

[TheDude]

Is there an industry consensus as it pertains to the various flavors of WAR? Trying to figure out if this a VHF/UHF or HDDVD/Blu-Ray type of proprietary battle going between stats groups where ultimately one will represent WAR, or if this is an accepted set of different stats that could be listed on a player's profile as different categories.