Minor League Discussion & Boxes 5-19-12

[iowahawkeyes89]

Saw Peoria tonight

 

Kyler Burke - fastball was 91-93, hit 94 a couple times. Only pitches from the stretch, which I did not realize. Threw what I think was a hard curve around 82-84. Definitely has the makings of a future LH bullpen guy. Obviously results weren't what he wanted tonight, but his pure stuff was pretty impressive.

 

Marco Hernandez - His stats haven't been very good but he definitely has that smooth look of a good defensive SS. Solid arm and made a really nice play on a ball that was ticketed for center. If he can get his bat going, he's definitely someone to keep an eye.

 

Yao Lin Wang - He impressed me the most tonight. Sat 92-94, hit 95 a couple times. Has a really good curve ball with 12-6 break that sits around 78-80. Really really like this kid. Another bullpen guy, possible late reliever.

 

Other random thoughts...Zeke Devoss looks the part, really good speed, pretty swing. I'm actually a little surprised he's not hitting more than he is, good bat speed in my opinion.

 

I'll be at the game tomorrow and Monday as well.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I think Wang is more interesting than Rhee long term, and that there's a joke or two there. They came up a lot last year together, which is why I drag Rhee in. Wang seems to have the better two pitch combo.

 

Best lefty reliever Future...Burke or Beliveau?

[Guest]

I think Wang is more interesting than Rhee long term, and that there's a joke or two there. They came up a lot last year together, which is why I drag Rhee in. Wang seems to have the better two pitch combo.

 

Best lefty reliever Future...Burke or Beliveau?

 

How does Wang have a better 2-pitch combo when Rhee has a better FB and his change is considered the best in the Cubs farm system? Hell, I can make an argument Rhee's curve (his #3 pitch) is better than Wang's curve.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I think Wang is more interesting than Rhee long term, and that there's a joke or two there. They came up a lot last year together, which is why I drag Rhee in. Wang seems to have the better two pitch combo.

 

Best lefty reliever Future...Burke or Beliveau?

 

How does Wang have a better 2-pitch combo when Rhee has a better FB and his change is considered the best in the Cubs farm system? Hell, I can make an argument Rhee's curve (his #3 pitch) is better than Wang's curve.

 

Rhee has a better fastball? I've heard of the changeup, not of this fastball since his TJ surgery. You know more about this than I do, so I'll have to buy. I'm out of the loop.

 

OTOH I will say that from the little I've seen Wang is the more solidly built (though he's also shorter?) of the two and is the better athlete.

[Guest]

I think Wang is more interesting than Rhee long term, and that there's a joke or two there. They came up a lot last year together, which is why I drag Rhee in. Wang seems to have the better two pitch combo.

 

Best lefty reliever Future...Burke or Beliveau?

 

How does Wang have a better 2-pitch combo when Rhee has a better FB and his change is considered the best in the Cubs farm system? Hell, I can make an argument Rhee's curve (his #3 pitch) is better than Wang's curve.

 

Rhee has a better fastball? I've heard of the changeup, not of this fastball since his TJ surgery. You know more about this than I do, so I'll have to buy. I'm out of the loop.

 

OTOH I will say that from the little I've seen Wang is the more solidly built (though he's also shorter?) of the two and is the better athlete.

 

Rhee is 90-94 with good movement while last year as a starter in Boise, Wang was 87-92 and his FB is rather straight.

 

Wang is 6-0 and 180 lbs and Rhee is 6-2 and 190 lbs.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I've read Wang at 90-94, fa sho befo.

 

Edit: Wang also K's more guys, gives up less hits, gives up less HRs, is nearly two years younger, and hasn't had surgery. He's got barely a 1/3 the innings Rhee does in the minors. That also happens to be true of his season. Rhee throws more strikes and gets more groundballs I'd guess.

Edited May 20, 2012 by PriortoTheoIhadWood

[davell]

I just asked KG about Torreyes and he said it's truckloads of weak contacts. Damnit.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

How good a player could the Cubs farm system get in its current form?

[toonsterwu]

Higher upside: Brett or Szczur? I think I'd say Szczur, but Brett has a much higher floor.

 

Hmm ... if we're going by some ultimate ceiling measure, I'd go Brett Jackson. It's just, there's more and more evidence that he might not reach said ceiling. But ... if he reached some sort of ultimate ceiling measure, we're talking about an average to solid defensive CF who gets on base and hits for more power than Szczur, while also having good base-running instincts.

[toonsterwu]

Wonder why Searle was demoted to Daytona? He hadn't been pitching all that poorly.

 

Out of all the demotions and promotions I've seen since 2006, most don't make sense on the surface. Always a reason, but we rarely know.

 

I wouldn't be stunned if there was a non-baseball reason that led to a demotion ... but it might simply be a combination of age (he was one of the younger pen arms in Tennessee at the time, and one of the younger overall arms in Tenn, with only Struck/McNutt/Antigua younger than him, I think) and mediocre performance (1.52 WHIP probably won't endear him to anyone), plus the addition of MacDougal forced Batista down.

[toonsterwu]

I think Wang is more interesting than Rhee long term, and that there's a joke or two there. They came up a lot last year together, which is why I drag Rhee in. Wang seems to have the better two pitch combo.

 

Best lefty reliever Future...Burke or Beliveau?

 

I think Rhee is as intriguing, if not moreso, than Wang. Rhee has better potential as a starter. Put him in the pen, and he can hit mid-90's as consistently as Wang, in all likelihood (Rhee hit mid-90's (or touched) as a starter last year in the summer/fall, saw him hit 95), and with likely a better secondary pitch.

 

As for lefty reliever, I'd guess Burke over Beliveau, but don't rule out Antigua from that mix, or even someone like Frank Del Valle, if he doesn't make it as a starter.

[toonsterwu]

I just asked KG about Torreyes and he said it's truckloads of weak contacts. Damnit.

 

That surprises me. Weak contact isn't the worst thing ... although it's certainly not good. There's a lot more variables at play, and I'd be more curious to learn how he was reading pitches (can't phrase what I want to say right now, but perhaps he's not reading breaking balls well, so maybe in time, he learns and adjusts, improving the type of contact he makes).

 

Again, I think there was enough out there to suggest that the hype on Torreyes was a bit overboard. The Altuve's of the world are exceptions (and I'm still not sold Altuve keeps performing at his current pace). Admittedly, I'm a bit surprised that Torreyes seems to be struggling in A+ ... thought he'd be fine until AA. He's young, though.

[toonsterwu]

How good a player could the Cubs farm system get in its current form?

 

Very confused at what you are asking here - are you talking about the draft? Or the best talent in the system? Or are you referring to a specific player?

[toonsterwu]

I think Wang is more interesting than Rhee long term, and that there's a joke or two there. They came up a lot last year together, which is why I drag Rhee in. Wang seems to have the better two pitch combo.

 

Best lefty reliever Future...Burke or Beliveau?

 

How does Wang have a better 2-pitch combo when Rhee has a better FB and his change is considered the best in the Cubs farm system? Hell, I can make an argument Rhee's curve (his #3 pitch) is better than Wang's curve.

 

Rhee has a better fastball? I've heard of the changeup, not of this fastball since his TJ surgery. You know more about this than I do, so I'll have to buy. I'm out of the loop.

 

OTOH I will say that from the little I've seen Wang is the more solidly built (though he's also shorter?) of the two and is the better athlete.

 

Rhee is 90-94 with good movement while last year as a starter in Boise, Wang was 87-92 and his FB is rather straight.

 

Wang is 6-0 and 180 lbs and Rhee is 6-2 and 190 lbs.

 

I have every reason to be personally biased for Yao-lin Wang (and trust me, if this wasn't a Cubs farmhand, I'd be singing his praises irrationally), and I hope to heck that he succeeds, but I also think he got a bit over-hyped by some folks that saw him in Boise last year. To me, he's a slightly better Hung-Wen Chen (and I think Chen's fastball had decent movement, just lacked any sort of velo to go behind it). He reminds me a fair bit of former Indians farmhand Sung-Wei Tseng. I think Wang could be a nice pen arm prospect, perhaps even a guy that could get fast-tracked a bit. There's some giddyup on the fastball out of the pen.

 

But as a starter? I think he's an end of the rotation type arm unless substantial improvement is made on a change-up/splitter type pitch.

[toonsterwu]

I think Wang is more interesting than Rhee long term, and that there's a joke or two there. They came up a lot last year together, which is why I drag Rhee in. Wang seems to have the better two pitch combo.

 

Best lefty reliever Future...Burke or Beliveau?

 

How does Wang have a better 2-pitch combo when Rhee has a better FB and his change is considered the best in the Cubs farm system? Hell, I can make an argument Rhee's curve (his #3 pitch) is better than Wang's curve.

 

Rhee has a better fastball? I've heard of the changeup, not of this fastball since his TJ surgery. You know more about this than I do, so I'll have to buy. I'm out of the loop.

 

OTOH I will say that from the little I've seen Wang is the more solidly built (though he's also shorter?) of the two and is the better athlete.

 

At his best, Rhee is 2 plus pitches with a decent slider. The change/split occasionally gets some plus-plus nods. The fastball being plus has as much to do with the velo he got in the summer. THe movement is probably better than Wang's, but I don't know if it would be classified as top tier movement.

[craig]

....Rhee has a better FB and his change is considered the best in the Cubs farm system? Hell, I can make an argument Rhee's curve (his #3 pitch) is better than Wang's curve......Rhee is 90-94 with good movement while last year as a starter in Boise, Wang was 87-92 and his FB is rather straight....

 

If Wang was 92-95 last night with a 78-80 good curve last night, that sounds pretty good. And would seem to fit with his good results thus far this spring. That sounds like a guy who's got a chance. As we've seen with the big-league Cubs this spring, it's not like competent relievers are easy to find or are easily replaced. So thanks for that info, iowa.

 

As for Rhee, If Wang is 92-95 with a good curve, and Rhee has three pitches that are better, that sounds really good for Rhee.

 

But if Rhee has a fast fastball with good movement, a good curve, and a premium change/split, why don't the hitters notice? 90-94 with movement, top change, and a solid breaking ball, those sound like good big-league pitches and that he'd have good success in minors. But it seems he's been consistently mediocre, and his early results this spring are as or more mediocre than before. High HR rate, low K-rate, modest K/BB ratio, mediocre WHIP, ERA's always over 4. Somehow the actual results don't seem to match the alleged quality stuff. High-HR/low-K is a pretty shaky foundation.

 

Hopefully he's just ready to kick it in. He did show some hints of more K's last year, and he's wiggled through 2 starts and 11 innings now without a HR now, so maybe he's ready to take off. Would sure be nice.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Higher upside: Brett or Szczur? I think I'd say Szczur, but Brett has a much higher floor.

I can't agree with that. I think Brett's floor is that he never fixes his strikeouts and doesn't reach the majors. I think Szczur is a minimum of a 4/5 OF.

 

Jackson "reaching" the majors is not an issue. He's going to come up and play this year at some point unless something more disasterous happens than is currently going on in Iowa. Him sticking in the majors may be an issue, but with the current state of this team, he's either going to get every chance in the world in Chicago or be traded and get a shot there.

 

Isn't pretty much every relevant prospect's floor not figuring something out and not making the majors?

[toonsterwu]

....Rhee has a better FB and his change is considered the best in the Cubs farm system? Hell, I can make an argument Rhee's curve (his #3 pitch) is better than Wang's curve......Rhee is 90-94 with good movement while last year as a starter in Boise, Wang was 87-92 and his FB is rather straight....

 

If Wang was 92-95 last night with a 78-80 good curve last night, that sounds pretty good. And would seem to fit with his good results thus far this spring. That sounds like a guy who's got a chance. As we've seen with the big-league Cubs this spring, it's not like competent relievers are easy to find or are easily replaced. So thanks for that info, iowa.

 

As for Rhee, If Wang is 92-95 with a good curve, and Rhee has three pitches that are better, that sounds really good for Rhee.

 

But if Rhee has a fast fastball with good movement, a good curve, and a premium change/split, why don't the hitters notice? 90-94 with movement, top change, and a solid breaking ball, those sound like good big-league pitches and that he'd have good success in minors. But it seems he's been consistently mediocre, and his early results this spring are as or more mediocre than before. High HR rate, low K-rate, modest K/BB ratio, mediocre WHIP, ERA's always over 4. Somehow the actual results don't seem to match the alleged quality stuff. High-HR/low-K is a pretty shaky foundation.

 

Hopefully he's just ready to kick it in. He did show some hints of more K's last year, and he's wiggled through 2 starts and 11 innings now without a HR now, so maybe he's ready to take off. Would sure be nice.

 

The consistency of his ability to get K's probably depends on his fastball consistency. He's had some decent K/IP outings this year, and then some down ones. The reports last year were that his fastball shows plus ability, but isn't always consistently there. Along with that is that, while I've defended the potential of his breaking ball before, but it's arguably a 50 pitch that occasionally flashes.

 

Now, is he facing a learning curve in AA, or are there signs of concern? It's probably a touch early (a few starts back, his K rate would've looked much nicer). One thing to keep in mind is that, last year, in the early-goings, he was inconsistent, and his fastball was around 90-92. It was only later in the year where you had him touch the mid-90's.

 

As a side note, his HR rate isn't that bad. Not great, but firstinning has him at 5% on Hr/air. Fangraphs his HR/9 at 0.82 - not great, but a number you can live with if the stuff is there. One very positive thing, IMO, which probably speaks to the quality of movement on his split-change, is that he still is getting close to 50% GB's in AA. I was a bit worried that there might be some dropoff there. At his best, he'll get GB's to mix with a solid amount of K'.s

 

I don't think anyone should kid themselves, though. Rhee's ceiling is a mid-rotation arm (I guess if we want to specific relative to scouting reports, his ceiling might be a tick better if he can be consistently plus on the fastball, but realistically, his ceiling is probably a mid-rotation arm). If he makes it as a 4/5 starter, that's still fairly solid.

 

I'm actually more concerned with, as of now, how he carries his stuff late into games. IIRC, there were a couple mixed reports earlier this year.

[Guest]

How good a player could the Cubs farm system get in its current form?

 

Very confused at what you are asking here - are you talking about the draft? Or the best talent in the system? Or are you referring to a specific player?

 

I read that to mean what type of player could they fetch in trade with the assets currently in the farm system.

[toonsterwu]

Ah makes sense.

 

I doubt we could get an elite player without parting with rizzo, b jax, or baez. But there's no point now to trade for an older guy, and I highly doubt we have the ability to trade for top young talent unless something strange happens.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

How good a player could the Cubs farm system get in its current form?

 

Very confused at what you are asking here - are you talking about the draft? Or the best talent in the system? Or are you referring to a specific player?

 

How do you land someone in the draft? A trade. If the Cubs were to make a trade using non-Rizzo prospects already in the system what level of player could they land? It was pretty vaguely worded.

 

Edit: Didnt see TT's post. The draft? What about a none elite like Chase Headley or...just to throw out another name, someone? Can't think of anyone, damn, but I do like Headley.

[davell]

I'm not even sure that question can be answered. Every team is going to look at our system differently. Headley's pretty damn solid, I doubt they'd let him go without getting a top 100 guy, a top 10 guy from a system, and a high upside type flyer. But yeah, we have the ability to make a trade for his caliber of player. We also have the ability to make a deal for pretty much anyone that could be available. Not that we would gut our system to do so. After the draft, some graduations, probably a sell off or two, some IFA signings, and seeing how our guys in short season look, we'll have a better grasp of where our system is and what we could trade for.

[Guest]

I'm not even sure that question can be answered. Every team is going to look at our system differently. Headley's pretty damn solid, I doubt they'd let him go without getting a top 100 guy, a top 10 guy from a system, and a high upside type flyer. But yeah, we have the ability to make a trade for his caliber of player. We also have the ability to make a deal for pretty much anyone that could be available. Not that we would gut our system to do so. After the draft, some graduations, probably a sell off or two, some IFA signings, and seeing how our guys in short season look, we'll have a better grasp of where our system is and what we could trade for.

Yeah, we have the assets to deal for someone like Upton the Young or King Felix if they were made available. We would have to gut the system to do it, but we could make it happen.