Random Baseball Musings

[Formerly Snayke]

If I were a Cardinals fan, this would bug me to hear going into tonight too.

 

Oh, OK. Well...it doesn't. Because it's nine starts.

[Guest]

We can all think critically here.

 

Wacha is a good prospect. His 9 starts don't do much to change that in either direction, except for the impressive fact that he's in AAA already. Many Cardinals fans have taken his ability to strike out Midwest League hitters in 2 inning stints as proof that Wacha is further along or better than he actually is. His middling peripherals in AAA are proof that he's not the monster that he appeared to be when facing 6-8 hitters at a time at lower levels. He didn't "earn" a call up as much as he was next in line after several injuries.

 

So go ahead, be excited to see Wacha at the MLB level. But Kyle's not wrong that Wacha's immediate future in MLB isn't a super rosy one. He's not even alone, with multiple prospect writers telling similar tales in reaction to his call up. Of course, this is the Cardinals, so his K rate will jump several standard deviations for no good reason, as that appears to be expected after Lynn and Rosenthal's success.

[Formerly Snayke]

Kyle could very well be right, but it's the half-assed way he approaches it that makes me roll my eyes. You can't stat-scout someone based on nine Triple-A starts and definitively say that they will struggle. That's where I take issue with his comments.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Sure I can. I did it like a page ago with accuracy.

[Guest]

Kyle could very well be right, but it's the half-assed way he approaches it that makes me roll my eyes. You can't stat-scout someone based on nine Triple-A starts and definitively say that they will struggle. That's where I take issue with his comments.

Are you familiar with Bayesian statistics?

 

Kyle didn't make a definitive statement that Wacha would struggle. He made two statements: 1) he expected that Wacha would struggle given his performance in his nine aaa starts and 2) any pitcher who can't K more than 6 per 9 in AAA in any given nine starts is probably going to have a tough time in the majors.

 

There is very little professional performance information available on Wacha. However, Bayes theorem helps us utilize the information that is available. Given that his underlying performance in AAA is less than stellar, it certainly biases the expectations of what we should expect to begin his MLB career.

 

And not in a good way.

 

That doesn't mean he's going to suck. It just means that based on the information we have available to us at this time, it is reasonable to expect a rocky start.

 

That really is exactly what Kyle stated.

[Elwood]

Wacha is perfect through 4.

 

Just sayin.

[Formerly Snayke]

Kyle didn't make a definitive statement that Wacha would struggle.

 

I feel comfortable with the sweeping conclusion that any pitcher who can't K more than 6 per 9 in AAA in any given nine starts is probably going to have a tough time in the majors.

 

This was an absurd statement. "In any given nine starts"? In any given nine starts where a pitcher has below-average strikeout numbers Kyle thinks that portends to little success in MLB.

[CubInOK]

Wacha is perfect through 4.

 

Just sayin.

This was expected.

[Elwood]

Wacha is perfect through 4.

 

Just sayin.

This was expected.

 

Never mind.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Pretty much expected. He had as many Ks as innings once in the minors this year, but you can't stat-scout pixie dust.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Kyle didn't make a definitive statement that Wacha would struggle.

 

I feel comfortable with the sweeping conclusion that any pitcher who can't K more than 6 per 9 in AAA in any given nine starts is probably going to have a tough time in the majors.

 

This was an absurd statement. "In any given nine starts"? In any given nine starts where a pitcher has below-average strikeout numbers Kyle thinks that portends to little success in MLB.

 

It does portend that.

[Tracer Bullet]

We can all think critically here.

 

Wacha is a good prospect. His 9 starts don't do much to change that in either direction, except for the impressive fact that he's in AAA already. Many Cardinals fans have taken his ability to strike out Midwest League hitters in 2 inning stints as proof that Wacha is further along or better than he actually is. His middling peripherals in AAA are proof that he's not the monster that he appeared to be when facing 6-8 hitters at a time at lower levels. He didn't "earn" a call up as much as he was next in line after several injuries.

 

So go ahead, be excited to see Wacha at the MLB level. But Kyle's not wrong that Wacha's immediate future in MLB isn't a super rosy one. He's not even alone, with multiple prospect writers telling similar tales in reaction to his call up. Of course, this is the Cardinals, so his K rate will jump several standard deviations for no good reason, as that appears to be expected after Lynn and Rosenthal's success.

 

ok, now do one for a Cubs player

[Little Slide Rooter]

Looks like Doug Melvin forgot about pitching and decided to go back to the old Brewers philosophy of let (a few of) the bats do all the talking and who cares if anyone can throw or catch the ball.

[Guest]

http://deadspin.com/the-marlins-are-responsible-for-40-percent-of-mlbs-att-510718234

[Clem Fandango]

http://deadspin.com/the-marlins-are-responsible-for-40-percent-of-mlbs-att-510718234

 

Speaking of the Marlins...

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/36507/marlins-sink-to-new-lows-on-the-field

[Clem Fandango]

Stephen Strasburg left Friday's start against the Braves after two innings with an apparent injury.

No word yet on the reason for his early exit, but he could be seen shaking his shoulder while on the mound. Strasburg allowed one run (on a solo homer to Freddie Freeman) over his two innings of work. Craig Stammen replaced him to begin the third inning. The Nationals should pass along an update on his status shortly.

[Guest]

Judging by Twitter, it's an oblique injury.

[Formerly Snayke]

It does portend that.

 

I would make note of this foolishness but I'm still worried about what the Royals will do to Wacha.

[Guest]

It does portend that.

 

I would make note of this foolishness but I'm still worried about what the Royals will do to Wacha.

you have too much pixie dust in your eyes to recognize the way things work in the rest of baseball.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Hahaha. The Royals broke Rany Jazayerli:

 

http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/2013/05/how-hell-did-this-happen.html

[NonProfitCow]

It does portend that.

 

I would make note of this foolishness but I'm still worried about what the Royals will do to Wacha.

you have too much pixie dust in your eyes to recognize the way things work in the rest of baseball.

A top 100 MLB prospect and first round pick being good at baseball? Crazy talk.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Maybe Memphis was just too hard for him and he had to step down to face a lower level of competition?

[NonProfitCow]

Maybe Memphis was just too hard for him and he had to step down to face a lower level of competition?

Maybe it was just a small sample size?

Maybe he was refining lesser pitches rather than pitching to his strengths?

Maybe he was dead armed from his first season of pro ball and spring training?

Maybe he had difficulty switching from Saturday starter to a 5 man rotation?

 

But, you're probably right. Those talent evaluators that said he was MLB caliber when he was drafted and had him as a top 10 pick before the draft were idiots. You can look at his bbref page and see his k/9 over 9 [expletive] starts!

[SouthSideRyan]

I get that it's fun to tell Kyle he's wrong, but might you wait more than 1 start and 80 professional innings for (annoyingly) haw hawing about a Cards prospect on a Cubs board?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Where did some people get the idea that nine starts isn't a lot for K-rate?