Stewart's Crappy Luck

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Stewart's career progression:

 

Okay ish

 

Bad last year

 

Hoy-stein think they see something in his swing they can fix to make him an above-average offensive player, and they are right.

 

This year, he's been hitting the ball very well and getting BABIPed.

[javy knows my name]

I still can't believe this happened:

 

you guys think:

that stats are normalized in 30 at bats

that stewart will hit his career average or better for certain

you feel that 5 games of hitting in May means more than the other 36 games of this season, or all of last year, or his entire career in colorado

you feel he will be better outside of coors field

You feel that this "hot" month which fits into "average" 3b stats makes him good

You disregard his stats for the awful past week, and his bad past 2 weeks to focus on his hot month because that would ruin your argument

as I said long, long ago we while find out. We can argue about what might happen as long as you want. We can guess based on any data we want, but after it plays out you really can't argue.

 

I've decided I don't want him to go anywhere

[Sammy Sofa]

ludicris

 

WE'VE REACHED THE MOUNTAINTOP.

[Sammy Sofa]

Also: IT'S TIME TO GET ELL.

[neely crenshaw]

Second, I think you have misread some of the arguments being made. I would love to see what you think of my post on page 3. I think it addresses just about every concern that you have laid out in this post.

 

went back and read, and it is exactly the type of answer that can be discussed and is based in some sort of data.

I have taken all of that into consideration, and in the end you could be right, and I could be wrong.

 

all good points. I was leaning more toward the smaller sample size, and coors field helping rather hurting his stats. Although it is still a large sample of 1000 at bats. So might the cream rise if a full season is played. possible, could it drop, possible also

strikeouts are down as good note, could be OR does that mean he's bound to return to his norm? could be either.

 

you think his babip indicates he should or could rise. very possible, I think with his historically low ld% it might mean there is a reason his babip is low. possible also.

 

May stats are better.

BUT as I attempted to explain the only great stat is his ops which when you look at his actual month, it means very little. he had 5 very good games and was below feeble in 15 others. to me that says it's more likely we see the bad over the long haul, especially when his career stats, and definitely his recent career stats lean to the bad.

 

Barney's spit for that exact time frame is much better but that is dismissed while Stewart's was held up glowing as proof that I was clueless.

now that's how the thread could have gone, thanks for being rational cubcoltpacer.

[neely crenshaw]

Also: IT'S TIME TO GET ELL.

 

 

do you know what that is?

[Sammy Sofa]

A baseball player being good in what amounts to approximately to 5 or 6 games out of 20 is a baseball player.

[Sammy Sofa]

Also: IT'S TIME TO GET ELL.

 

 

do you know what that is?

 

I'm not the type of person who likes to waste my time

And when I'm on the mic I just say my rhymes

Because I'm out on bail the check is in the mail

They can sentence me to life but I won't go to jail

I'm cool calm collected; from class I was ejected

Just me, da Bum, and Benchwarmer we're rarely disrespected

I got all the time that I need to kill

What's the time? it's time to get ELL

[CubColtPacer]

Second, I think you have misread some of the arguments being made. I would love to see what you think of my post on page 3. I think it addresses just about every concern that you have laid out in this post.

 

you think his babip indicates he should or could rise. very possible, I think with his historically low ld% it might mean there is a reason his babip is low. possible also.

 

Thanks for reading and considering. I just wanted to address this point. His LD percentage is not that low. It's a little lower than his career, and it's definitely lower than major league average but he's not among the very bottom.

 

For example, among qualified players the median line drive percentage is about 20.5%. Stewart ranks 134th out of 175 qualified players with 17.9%.

 

In BABIP, the median is about .302. Stewart is 166th out of 175 with a .221 BABIP.

 

So the difference between median LD and median BABIP is about .097 (which is a little smaller than normal). Stewart's is .042 which as you can see is less than half the average. That's where the bad luck has come into play. His BABIP should be at least in the .270's based on his LD if not higher (as noted, the fact that his ground ball/fly ball ratio is so high should raise his BABIP a little more since ground balls are more likely to find holes).

 

I don't think anybody is saying he will work out for sure. His strikeout rate could easily rise again and he could turn out to be not that useful of a player. But so far he's played well and gotten unlucky. If he can keep playing just as well, his numbers should improve. I don't know if he will keep up this improved play or not.

[Theo]

I don't agree with everything Neely's saying, but I'm baffled at the slew of insults, snarky comments, and general innuendo(i.e "ban him") thrown his direction. The lemmings here never disappoint.

[Sammy Sofa]

Go back to putting your farts in jars.

[neely crenshaw]

Go back to putting your farts in jars.

 

Do you add anything pertinent to any thread you post in?

 

Seriously between the rap attempt and this, I'm wondering are you 14? Don't you have middle school tomorrow?

[neely crenshaw]

Second, I think you have misread some of the arguments being made. I would love to see what you think of my post on page 3. I think it addresses just about every concern that you have laid out in this post.

 

you think his babip indicates he should or could rise. very possible, I think with his historically low ld% it might mean there is a reason his babip is low. possible also.

 

Thanks for reading and considering. I just wanted to address this point. His LD percentage is not that low. It's a little lower than his career, and it's definitely lower than major league average but he's not among the very bottom.

 

For example, among qualified players the median line drive percentage is about 20.5%. Stewart ranks 134th out of 175 qualified players with 17.9%.

 

In BABIP, the median is about .302. Stewart is 166th out of 175 with a .221 BABIP.

 

 

 

So the difference between median LD and median BABIP is about .097 (which is a little smaller than normal). Stewart's is .042 which as you can see is less than half the average. That's where the bad luck has come into play. His BABIP should be at least in the .270's based on his LD if not higher (as noted, the fact that his ground ball/fly ball ratio is so high should raise his BABIP a little more since ground balls are more likely to find holes).

 

I don't think anybody is saying he will work out for sure. His strikeout rate could easily rise again and he could turn out to be not that useful of a player. But so far he's played well and gotten unlucky. If he can keep playing just as well, his numbers should improve. I don't know if he will keep up this improved play or not.

 

You actually give me some hope he may turn around some but then I am really torn between wanting to be right on this and having the cubs so any improvement.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I don't agree with everything Neely's saying, but I'm baffled at the slew of insults, snarky comments, and general innuendo(i.e "ban him") thrown his direction. The lemmings here never disappoint.

 

He's trying to say that bad players are better than good players

 

he refuses to admit that he's wrong or even simply walk away.

 

he's criticized others for failure to comprehend the incomprehensible

 

his posts either contradict each other or logic in general.

 

He's turned two threads into his own live chats of insanity

 

He's been downright condescending toward those pointing out the obvious flaws in his arguments

Edited May 23, 2012 by Little Slide Rooter

[Sammy Sofa]

Go back to putting your farts in jars.

 

Do you add anything pertinent to any thread you post in?

 

Seriously between the rap attempt and this, I'm wondering are you 14? Don't you have middle school tomorrow?

 

Actually, yes. But as a teacher. I AM MOLDING THE FUTURE.

 

And I tried engaging you; you persisted only with a cesspool of anti-logic. Now you will only know deep hurting.

[neely crenshaw]

I don't agree with everything Neely's saying, but I'm baffled at the slew of insults, snarky comments, and general innuendo(i.e "ban him") thrown his direction. The lemmings here never disappoint.

 

He's trying to say that bad players are better than good players

did not say once anyone was better than anyone. I did talk performance and higher POSSIBLE upside

 

he refuses to admit that he's wrong or even simply walk away.

It's hard to be wrong on an opinion. The problem was that many posters kept posting their opinion as FACT. I said I don't think it's bad luck, I think it will not turn around. I'll happily admit that if he posts an.800 ops for the season it would be solid. I did feel that the rest of his stat would show that would fall in a bigger sample size, especially with a severe dip over the last 2 weeks of his hot month. I seriously do not see a player with a .245 average, 3 2bs,3 hrs and 5 rbi for 21 games as good. A nice ob% but he did get hit twice, and intentionally walked twice- can we count on that each month? I didn't think so.

 

he's criticized others for failure to comprehend the incomprehensible

Yes, because as with this post you still do not comprehend what I said, If you did you would not say the above posts

 

his posts either contradict each other or logic in general.

I don't think saying a 6 year career vet who has a career average of .233 will probably not hit better than that and very well may hit worse than that, especially coming from colorado defies logic

 

He's turned two threads into his own live chats of insanity

that would be the other way around

 

He's been downright condescending toward those pointing out the obvious flaws in his arguments

No I am downright condescending to posters who choose to insult rather than engage, I had excellent give and take with cubcolt pacer, who actually made his points rather than talk down or say put farts in a jar

 

From what I see the biggest bone of contention is the fact that I point out that a ops or ob% for 20 games is pretty meaningless. Stewart had a couple of nice games, that in my opinion were not an indication of coming around but just the fact that he is a major league hitter and is bound to hit sometime. His ops has dipped since and I think that shows he is returning to his norm.

I fully understand that it could be just a blip downward because those happen also. It's just my opinion based on: his history, history of players leaving colorado and what I have seen from watching him. It's my opinion.

 

Many times when you look at stats, they can go either directions. Many of you guys look at his babip and see tough luck and feel that he is due to turn around. I look at it and think, there is a reason that so many balls in play are being caught.

Unfortunately most posters decided to attack me personally rather than intelligently state their thoughts BECAUSE no matter what, right now, they are only your thoughts and opinions because no one knows what is actually going to happen. We are looking at data and formulating opinions. If you actually "know", then you are wasting time on a message board. There is big money to made with that skill.

Outside of cubcolt, the top argument that was put out was a 20 day stat line continually being posted, with no explanation, just the meaningless stat line for 20 days. This could have been a very good thread but instead it snowballed into "boers and bernstein attack mode" junk.

[neely crenshaw]

you see what you want to see. Time will tell, it will be difficult to blame bad luck after 500 at bats. Regardless at his very,very best he is mediocre.

 

Time IS telling, and we can see reality. As pointed out, these are his numbers in May:

 

.246 .338 .456 .795

 

 

 

Surely this will make you reconsider and...

 

On this team he's fine. I like his toughness, I like his grit. There is no denying he cares, he plays hard and seems like a good team mate. There is a lot to like about him but don't confuse that with being good. He can not be the 3rd baseman on your team if you plan on being a serious contender.

 

.......ohhhhhh. You're one of those.

 

For the record this is your first response. Missing the "engaging" part. Hopefully you teach PE or maybe credit recovery. Funny, you teach in the Chicago area but don't know what ELL is?

 

the last 7 games .167 .375 .167 .542

 

Surely this will make you reconsider and...

 

I think it would be smart to let a little more time tell us which way this is going, it could go your way but it may not. Throwing a stat line for 20 games as proof doesn't do much.

[Tracer Bullet]

I don't agree with everything Neely's saying, but I'm baffled at the slew of insults, snarky comments, and general innuendo(i.e "ban him") thrown his direction. The lemmings here never disappoint.

 

He's trying to say that bad players are better than good players

did not say once anyone was better than anyone. I did talk performance and higher POSSIBLE upside

 

he refuses to admit that he's wrong or even simply walk away.

It's hard to be wrong on an opinion. The problem was that many posters kept posting their opinion as FACT. I said I don't think it's bad luck, I think it will not turn around. I'll happily admit that if he posts an.800 ops for the season it would be solid. I did feel that the rest of his stat would show that would fall in a bigger sample size, especially with a severe dip over the last 2 weeks of his hot month. I seriously do not see a player with a .245 average, 3 2bs,3 hrs and 5 rbi for 21 games as good. A nice ob% but he did get hit twice, and intentionally walked twice- can we count on that each month? I didn't think so.

 

he's criticized others for failure to comprehend the incomprehensible

Yes, because as with this post you still do not comprehend what I said, If you did you would not say the above posts

 

his posts either contradict each other or logic in general.

I don't think saying a 6 year career vet who has a career average of .233 will probably not hit better than that and very well may hit worse than that, especially coming from colorado defies logic

 

He's turned two threads into his own live chats of insanity

that would be the other way around

 

He's been downright condescending toward those pointing out the obvious flaws in his arguments

No I am downright condescending to posters who choose to insult rather than engage, I had excellent give and take with cubcolt pacer, who actually made his points rather than talk down or say put farts in a jar

 

From what I see the biggest bone of contention is the fact that I point out that a ops or ob% for 20 games is pretty meaningless. Stewart had a couple of nice games, that in my opinion were not an indication of coming around but just the fact that he is a major league hitter and is bound to hit sometime. His ops has dipped since and I think that shows he is returning to his norm.

I fully understand that it could be just a blip downward because those happen also. It's just my opinion based on: his history, history of players leaving colorado and what I have seen from watching him. It's my opinion.

 

Many times when you look at stats, they can go either directions. Many of you guys look at his babip and see tough luck and feel that he is due to turn around. I look at it and think, there is a reason that so many balls in play are being caught.

Unfortunately most posters decided to attack me personally rather than intelligently state their thoughts BECAUSE no matter what, right now, they are only your thoughts and opinions because no one knows what is actually going to happen. We are looking at data and formulating opinions. If you actually "know", then you are wasting time on a message board. There is big money to made with that skill.

Outside of cubcolt, the top argument that was put out was a 20 day stat line continually being posted, with no explanation, just the meaningless stat line for 20 days. This could have been a very good thread but instead it snowballed into "boers and bernstein attack mode" junk.

 

Let's not pretend that you didn't participate fully in the tone of this thread. You've been condescending from the beginning. So let's not be so quick to point and gasp at the posts of others.

[Sammy Sofa]

you see what you want to see. Time will tell, it will be difficult to blame bad luck after 500 at bats. Regardless at his very,very best he is mediocre.

 

Time IS telling, and we can see reality. As pointed out, these are his numbers in May:

 

.246 .338 .456 .795

 

 

 

Surely this will make you reconsider and...

 

On this team he's fine. I like his toughness, I like his grit. There is no denying he cares, he plays hard and seems like a good team mate. There is a lot to like about him but don't confuse that with being good. He can not be the 3rd baseman on your team if you plan on being a serious contender.

 

.......ohhhhhh. You're one of those.

 

For the record this is your first response. Missing the "engaging" part. Hopefully you teach PE or maybe credit recovery. Funny, you teach in the Chicago area but don't know what ELL is?

 

the last 7 games .167 .375 .167 .542

 

Surely this will make you reconsider and...

 

I think it would be smart to let a little more time tell us which way this is going, it could go your way but it may not. Throwing a stat line for 20 games as proof doesn't do much.

 

Nobody "threw it as proof," you dolt. The whole point from the beginning is that we're HOPING that Stewart is showing sings of improving, not "oh man, he's a lock to be good because of this limited sample size." People insult you because you're awful and they can't stand you.

 

And yes, I know what ELL/ESL is. I was mocking the irony of you using it to mock someone else considering your posts often read like the semi-literate ramblings of a sentient water buffalo.

[dew1679666265]

Many times when you look at stats, they can go either directions. Many of you guys look at his babip and see tough luck and feel that he is due to turn around. I look at it and think, there is a reason that so many balls in play are being caught.

 

Consider this, if you would: Your concern about BABIP alone is very well-founded. By itself, there's no way to know if a guy has a low BABIP because he's hitting soft stuff everywhere or if he's getting unlucky. However, that's where line drive percentage (LD%) comes into play. LD% basically tells you how hard a guy is hitting the ball - how many line drives he's hit. If his LD% is high, then he's hitting the ball very hard and the low BABIP means he's been unlucky. If a guy has a low LD%, then he's not hitting the ball very hard and his low BABIP is well-earned.

 

Now, if we look at Ian Stewart, his LD% is currently at 17.9%, which is just a little bit off of his career 18.8% LD%. So he's hitting the ball about as hard as he normally has throughout his career and you would assume that with normal luck, his BABIP should be around his career average. However, his current .221 BABIP is 68 points below his career .289 BABIP. So what that tells us is that he's hitting the ball almost as hard as he ever has in his career, but that he's having a lot of those hard hit balls go right at defenders. Thus, the belief that he's had a lot of bad luck this year.

[MSG T]

Many times when you look at stats, they can go either directions. Many of you guys look at his babip and see tough luck and feel that he is due to turn around. I look at it and think, there is a reason that so many balls in play are being caught.

 

Consider this, if you would: Your concern about BABIP alone is very well-founded. By itself, there's no way to know if a guy has a low BABIP because he's hitting soft stuff everywhere or if he's getting unlucky. However, that's where line drive percentage (LD%) comes into play. LD% basically tells you how hard a guy is hitting the ball - how many line drives he's hit. If his LD% is high, then he's hitting the ball very hard and the low BABIP means he's been unlucky. If a guy has a low LD%, then he's not hitting the ball very hard and his low BABIP is well-earned.

 

Now, if we look at Ian Stewart, his LD% is currently at 17.9%, which is just a little bit off of his career 18.8% LD%. So he's hitting the ball about as hard as he normally has throughout his career and you would assume that with normal luck, his BABIP should be around his career average. However, his current .221 BABIP is 68 points below his career .289 BABIP. So what that tells us is that he's hitting the ball almost as hard as he ever has in his career, but that he's having a lot of those hard hit balls go right at defenders. Thus, the belief that he's had a lot of bad luck this year.

 

I think he already addressed this well-stated argument by saying Stewart was hitting soft line drives, not hard hit balls. But I'm not going back through all of these pages, and his ramblings, to verify that.

 

Oh, and I agree with what you said.

[neely crenshaw]

Absolutely makes sense. I have no problem with that approach. I don't feel it will happen BUT I certainly see where it's an indicator that it could. This is much more understandable position than saying that" time is telling" because he has a decent split for 20 games.

I hope your right (except for this thread's sake) I don't dislike him. Part of my opinion is on the old eye test, which is very difficult to prove to anyone. As I said earlier, we see what we want to see and maybe I am biased by looking at all of his previous numbers and I "see" the negative of his game, while others see the positive. That could be the life long cub fan coming out!

 

 

I certainly could have been the bigger man and just ignore the taunts and personal attacks, that was a childish but there was a lot of junk thrown mine way basically because I dared to disagree. My 2nd post did attempt to end the rift by simply saying time will tell, which for whatever reason made me a troll. Then people were taking part of what I posted and rip that, leading to others only reading those posts and ripping that- most accompanied with their own personal taunts. Hard to keep from responding to those, especially when you are also trying to explain what you actually said. How many people kept saying that I said so and so was better. I didn't say that in either thread and was never even part of the thread. It was frustrating, as I am sure it was for some on the other side. I do think that many missed what we started out with, and just attacked what they thought I has said, or my responses to posts. Obviously since we were up way to late the first night, we got some juices flowing...which takes some doing this season.

 

can't resist one more, though

Nuts and gum, it's either middle school or special services right? That level would certainly understand and appreciate your fart jokes and bad raps.

[dew1679666265]

Absolutely makes sense. I have no problem with that approach. I don't feel it will happen BUT I certainly see where it's an indicator that it could. This is much more understandable position than saying that" time is telling" because he has a decent split for 20 games.

I hope your right (except for this thread's sake) I don't dislike him. Part of my opinion is on the old eye test, which is very difficult to prove to anyone. As I said earlier, we see what we want to see and maybe I am biased by looking at all of his previous numbers and I "see" the negative of his game, while others see the positive. That could be the life long cub fan coming out!

 

I'm hardly sold on Stewart either, though I think there is hope for him because of the quality approach he has at the plate. That said, in previous seasons (especially last year) he's battled injury problems. That clearly is a problem in its own right, however it may help explain why you've not liked what you've seen in the past - he simply wasn't healthy.

 

On the 20-game split topic, I think it should be taken into consideration. Stewart clearly has talent and a good approach at the plate, so anytime he hits a hot streak it gives hope that it's the beginning of a breakout. That doesn't mean it will be and it could just be a fluke, but I don't think it should be outright dismissed (not saying you were). I don't believe anybody has said it's a certainty that he'll be great because of a 20-game stretch, simply that there was hope for a breakout because of it.

[dew1679666265]

I think he already addressed this well-stated argument by saying Stewart was hitting soft line drives, not hard hit balls. But I'm not going back through all of these pages, and his ramblings, to verify that.

 

Oh, and I agree with what you said.

 

Thanks. And it's true that LD% takes hard and soft line drives into account, however all types of line drives (hard and soft) have a 75% chance to land for a hit, according to the Hardball Times. I know you weren't arguing the point, but I thought I'd clarify that either a hard or soft line drive still has a much better chance of falling in for a hit than a flyball or groundball.

[Sammy Sofa]

can't resist one more, though

Nuts and gum, it's either middle school or special services right? That level would certainly understand and appreciate your fart jokes and bad raps.

 

Don't resist jumping in front of a bus.