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Any chance we'll be good THIS year?

bcl412

By bcl412,
in Chicago Cubs Talk

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Well, they got the Astros right at least.
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jersey cubs fan GOAT

jersey cubs fan

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http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2012/story/_/id/7752377/projecting-national-league-east-central-west-races-2012-mlb

 

ESPN/Dan Szymborski/Baseball Think Factory NL preview.

 

Cubs finish with 75 wins, 2 games ahead of PIT for 4th place.

 

The Central looks much like it did in 2012, minus a couple of superstar first basemen. The Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals both made some moves to soften some of the blow of losing Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols, respectively, and the Cincinnati Reds -- one of the more disappointing teams in 2011 -- cashed in some of their prospects for Mat Latos. The divisional race is tight enough that it may come down to which team's the healthiest.

 

The Chicago Cubs have figured out the best way to avoid failing to meet expectations is to enter the season without any. I mean that in the best possible way. Theo Epstein was the biggest non-player acquisition in baseball for some time and has a clean slate to build the Cubs into serious contenders. But not in 2012. The Pittsburgh Pirates made some noise for a month or so last season, but while the team has a direction for the first time in decades, they're not yet at their destination.

 

The Houston Astros will play 162 games of baseball this year. They'll win some of them.

 

The race goes:

CIN - 87

MIL - 86

STL - 85

CHC - 75

PIT - 73

HOU - 59

 

If that holds I'll win my drunken bet with a softball teammate on the CIN - CHC spread of 16 wins.

  • 2 weeks later...
J.R. ACL Cubs

J.R.

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What are the chances that the Cubs lose 100 games this season? 15%?

I guessed 60-102 before the opener.

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What are the chances that the Cubs lose 100 games this season? 15%?

 

Less than 1 percent.

tgkimmel Prep Ball

tgkimmel

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What are the chances that the Cubs lose 100 games this season? 15%?

 

Less than 1 percent.

 

I'll agree - as currently constituted. If they trade Dempster or Garza at the deadline the percentage goes up. If both go it's almost a certainty. However, I've got faith in the current decision makers that even if we are historically awful, the talent we get back will be worth it.

 

Besides, with the change in the amateur spending rules, the only way to get the best player is to have the first pick. :wink:

Derwood GOAT

Derwood

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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Outside of draft position, I don't see how wins really matter at all this year. I view this season the same way I view Spring Training/AAA.....I'm looking at individual performances of key players and not caring about the rest
SouthSideRyan MVP

SouthSideRyan

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I've said to anyone who will listen - except for some reason I didn't post it here - but my spring training prediction for the season was between 40-60 wins. Any of which means 100+ losses.

 

lololololol

davell Chicago Cubs

davell

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I agree with Derwood completely. Other than one thing that keeps crossing my mind: Our actual attendance, not paid attendance, could be soooo bad this year, that we legitimately may need to keep payroll down somewhat, because of it. The revenue is going to be different than in the past, because of having zero expectations. I guess we're truly counting on Rizzo and Brett to bring fans out this summer. Because if we're sitting at 35-60 around the break, who wants to go vb out to the park to see another loss? I guess I hope we're finding other revenue streams, or have already done so, because we're certainly going to need them for this year.
Hairyducked Idiot All-Star

Hairyducked Idiot

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I agree with Derwood completely. Other than one thing that keeps crossing my mind: Our actual attendance, not paid attendance, could be soooo bad this year, that we legitimately may need to keep payroll down somewhat, because of it. The revenue is going to be different than in the past, because of having zero expectations. I guess we're truly counting on Rizzo and Brett to bring fans out this summer. Because if we're sitting at 35-60 around the break, who wants to go vb out to the park to see another loss? I guess I hope we're finding other revenue streams, or have already done so, because we're certainly going to need them for this year.

 

It doesn't make it any better, but I suspect they already planned for this.

 

The money spent on last year's payroll, draft and IFAs, and then this year's.

 

Unless we are giving Soler a 10-figure signing bonus, or all the scouts are doing their video work on gold-plated iPads, then it's not adding up.

SouthSideRyan MVP

SouthSideRyan

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I agree with Derwood completely. Other than one thing that keeps crossing my mind: Our actual attendance, not paid attendance, could be soooo bad this year, that we legitimately may need to keep payroll down somewhat, because of it. The revenue is going to be different than in the past, because of having zero expectations. I guess we're truly counting on Rizzo and Brett to bring fans out this summer. Because if we're sitting at 35-60 around the break, who wants to go vb out to the park to see another loss? I guess I hope we're finding other revenue streams, or have already done so, because we're certainly going to need them for this year.

 

Even with the bleak outlook on this year's team, walk-up sales are a pretty small part of ticket revenue. They sold 34,000 tickets for a Wednesday afternoon game in April when nobody thought the team would be any good.

jersey cubs fan GOAT

jersey cubs fan

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I agree with Derwood completely. Other than one thing that keeps crossing my mind: Our actual attendance, not paid attendance, could be soooo bad this year, that we legitimately may need to keep payroll down somewhat, because of it. The revenue is going to be different than in the past, because of having zero expectations. I guess we're truly counting on Rizzo and Brett to bring fans out this summer. Because if we're sitting at 35-60 around the break, who wants to go vb out to the park to see another loss? I guess I hope we're finding other revenue streams, or have already done so, because we're certainly going to need them for this year.

 

Even with the bleak outlook on this year's team, walk-up sales are a pretty small part of ticket revenue. They sold 34,000 tickets for a Wednesday afternoon game in April when nobody thought the team would be any good.

 

But walk up sales aren't the only missed revenue. 15,000 fewer humans in the building also cuts into bottom line.

C.C. Chicago Cubs

C.C.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Outside of draft position, I don't see how wins really matter at all this year. I view this season the same way I view Spring Training/AAA.....I'm looking at individual performances of key players and not caring about the rest

 

Bingo.

Sammy Sofa GOAT

Sammy Sofa

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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I've said to anyone who will listen - except for some reason I didn't post it here - but my spring training prediction for the season was between 40-60 wins. Any of which means 100+ losses.

 

You probably didn't post it in a brief moment of clarity when you realized how insane it is to predict that a team had a realistic shot of winning less than 50 games. Because, y'know, that's only happen 24 times in all of MLB's history, and only twice in the last 50 years.

Sammy Sofa GOAT

Sammy Sofa

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
For the record, the Cubs have lost at least 100 games only twice in 128 years of that even being possible, so defiantly stating that you think they're all but a lock to lose at least 100 games is pretty bold.
jersey cubs fan GOAT

jersey cubs fan

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
For the record, the Cubs have lost at least 100 games only twice in 128 years of that even being possible, so defiantly stating that you think they're all but a lock to lose at least 100 games is pretty bold.

 

And they've won 100 5 times, so, well, that's nice.

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