Front Office Strategy

[Little Slide Rooter]

If cleaning house is the method they are using I expected and predicted it would need to be done, I didn't expect it would be so painful.

 

Hasn't been painful at all.

[davell]

I actually have a feeling that our 2012 team, with or without Garza, minus Byrd, and probably minus Marmol and maybe Soto by the deadline, will still win as many games as the 2011 version, because of how much better our guys are at piecing things together.

[XZero771679666304]

I actually have a feeling that our 2012 team, with or without Garza, minus Byrd, and probably minus Marmol and maybe Soto by the deadline, will still win as many games as the 2011 version, because of how much better our guys are at piecing things together.

 

That's not setting the bar high, but it's a distinct possibility. And knowing there is some kind of organizational direction will help tolerate the losses.

[Fro]

If you notice, we're collecting left-handed hitters too.

 

Stewart, Rizzo, DeJesus etc. Maybe they're looking at the park factor for Wrigley Field showing that it's one of the best places in the league for LHs to hit HRs the last few years (obviously that's more of a factor with Stewart and Rizzo than DeJesus).

[Backtobanks]

I actually have a feeling that our 2012 team, with or without Garza, minus Byrd, and probably minus Marmol and maybe Soto by the deadline, will still win as many games as the 2011 version, because of how much better our guys are at piecing things together.

 

For that to happen you're going to need a lot of things to go right (Jackson, Stewart, Lahair, Volsted/Wells, etc.). After many years of so much going wrong for the Cubs (mostly injuries), maybe they're due to have some good things happen.

[VicCub]

I am absolutely thrilled with what the Cubs FO is doing. I've been advocating a total youth movement/rebuild since I was a child in the 1970s. Been wanting lefty sluggers almost as long. A Cub fan doesn't mind being patient, especially when there is a clear plan and a proven guy orchestrating it. I've never been more confident in this franchise than right now.

[dew1679666265]

I actually have a feeling that our 2012 team, with or without Garza, minus Byrd, and probably minus Marmol and maybe Soto by the deadline, will still win as many games as the 2011 version, because of how much better our guys are at piecing things together.

 

For that to happen you're going to need a lot of things to go right (Jackson, Stewart, Lahair, Volsted/Wells, etc.). After many years of so much going wrong for the Cubs (mostly injuries), maybe they're due to have some good things happen.

 

I don't think the 2012 team hitting 71 wins is that difficult to do. I could see this team being worse than that, but I could also see it being a little better. That said, the 2011 team was better than 71 wins.

[dew1679666265]

Epstein/Hoyer have been on the job less than three months, right? In that time, they've managed to fill the horrific organizational hole at 1b and flip Sean Marshall for a middle of the rotation starter and two useful parts. Meanwhile, they've got to have eleventy bajillion dollars to spend.

 

I'm pretty sure they can do a lot of magic in 15 more months.

 

I guess my question is, who do they spend those eleventy bajillion dollars on? The FA pitching class next year looks really good right now, but is it smart to give out two 5+ year, huge money deals to 28-29 year old pitchers with lots of mileage? Let's say we sign one of Cain/Hamels/Greinke (if any of them hit FA, which I think only Greinke is likely to do), where else do we spend that money?

 

I think real contention in 2013 at this point hinges on keeping Garza. If we trade him, I think we have to pursue a couple of top FA pitchers next offseason (since Wood would be our best starter) and possibly a big bat as well if Cespedes and Rizzo don't break out quickly. If we keep Garza, I think we're in a similar position in the 2012 offseason as we were at the start of this offseason - get a couple of impact type players and you have a shot at contention if the rest of the division is less than stellar.

 

I still think contention in 2014 and dominance in 2015 is the most likely route, and most realistic by far, at this point. Though with Theo/Jed at the helm, I wouldn't necessarily rule anything out.

[KingCubsFan]

Epstein/Hoyer have been on the job less than three months, right? In that time, they've managed to fill the horrific organizational hole at 1b and flip Sean Marshall for a middle of the rotation starter and two useful parts. Meanwhile, they've got to have eleventy bajillion dollars to spend.

 

I'm pretty sure they can do a lot of magic in 15 more months.

 

I guess my question is, who do they spend those eleventy bajillion dollars on? The FA pitching class next year looks really good right now, but is it smart to give out two 5+ year, huge money deals to 28-29 year old pitchers with lots of mileage? Let's say we sign one of Cain/Hamels/Greinke (if any of them hit FA, which I think only Greinke is likely to do), where else do we spend that money?

 

I think real contention in 2013 at this point hinges on keeping Garza. If we trade him, I think we have to pursue a couple of top FA pitchers next offseason (since Wood would be our best starter) and possibly a big bat as well if Cespedes and Rizzo don't break out quickly. If we keep Garza, I think we're in a similar position in the 2012 offseason as we were at the start of this offseason - get a couple of impact type players and you have a shot at contention if the rest of the division is less than stellar.

 

I still think contention in 2014 and dominance in 2015 is the most likely route, and most realistic by far, at this point. Though with Theo/Jed at the helm, I wouldn't necessarily rule anything out.

Yeah, I was a fan of going after Cain, but it looks like Bochy has really Dusty'd him the past few years. Hamels and Shawn Marcum might be the way to go.

[dew1679666265]

Yeah, I was a fan of going after Cain, but it looks like Bochy has really Dusty'd him the past few years. Hamels and Shawn Marcum might be the way to go.

 

Marcum doesn't interest me much. He's a nice pitcher and I like the K/9 and BB/9 numbers quite a bit, but he'll be 31 when he signs a new deal and could very easily get 4-5 years (probably more like 4, but if a few guys don't hit FA I could see 5 fairly easily). There should be better options than him available.

 

If we pursue one of the elite FA pitchers, I'd go after Greinke or Hamels. I think Greinke will hit FA, as the Brewers are likely to be in contention and thus won't trade him, but I doubt Hamels does. After that, I'd go really hard after Anibal Sanchez if he hits FA. He's not been as good as guys like Greinke/Hamels, but his 2011 K/9 was a career high 9.26 and his BB/9 was a career low 2.93. If he can keep that up for another season - along with the really nice 3.35 FIP and 3.25 xFIP - he could be fairly undervalued compared to the rest of the FA class, if he hits the market.

[Backtobanks]

I am absolutely thrilled with what the Cubs FO is doing. I've been advocating a total youth movement/rebuild since I was a child in the 1970s. Been wanting lefty sluggers almost as long. A Cub fan doesn't mind being patient, especially when there is a clear plan and a proven guy orchestrating it. I've never been more confident in this franchise than right now.

 

Well I've been a Cub fan for 57 years and my patience is wearing a little thin.

[Backtobanks]

Epstein/Hoyer have been on the job less than three months, right? In that time, they've managed to fill the horrific organizational hole at 1b and flip Sean Marshall for a middle of the rotation starter and two useful parts. Meanwhile, they've got to have eleventy bajillion dollars to spend.

 

I'm pretty sure they can do a lot of magic in 15 more months.

 

I guess my question is, who do they spend those eleventy bajillion dollars on? The FA pitching class next year looks really good right now, but is it smart to give out two 5+ year, huge money deals to 28-29 year old pitchers with lots of mileage? Let's say we sign one of Cain/Hamels/Greinke (if any of them hit FA, which I think only Greinke is likely to do), where else do we spend that money?

 

I think real contention in 2013 at this point hinges on keeping Garza. If we trade him, I think we have to pursue a couple of top FA pitchers next offseason (since Wood would be our best starter) and possibly a big bat as well if Cespedes and Rizzo don't break out quickly. If we keep Garza, I think we're in a similar position in the 2012 offseason as we were at the start of this offseason - get a couple of impact type players and you have a shot at contention if the rest of the division is less than stellar.

 

I still think contention in 2014 and dominance in 2015 is the most likely route, and most realistic by far, at this point. Though with Theo/Jed at the helm, I wouldn't necessarily rule anything out.

 

That's been my concern all along. Young players/prospects are great, but again there is no guarantee that they will reach their potential. The strategy is based on some/many of these young players developing into solid ML players (not a sure thing), signing top FAs when the team is ready (assuming the players make it to free agency and the teams like the Yankees and Red Sox decide to let us outbid them), and trading from our now-deep farm system for productive players when the team is ready to contend. I have faith in Theo, but I think he had better get serious before opening day 2013 about having a solid core of players on the field if there's any hope of contending in 2014.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I am absolutely thrilled with what the Cubs FO is doing. I've been advocating a total youth movement/rebuild since I was a child in the 1970s. Been wanting lefty sluggers almost as long. A Cub fan doesn't mind being patient, especially when there is a clear plan and a proven guy orchestrating it. I've never been more confident in this franchise than right now.

 

Well I've been a Cub fan for 57 years and my patience is wearing a little thin.

 

Well damn, I wouldn't have expected that. Now as many maybe next years as I've been through in my life as a Cubs fan, the '00s did bring real optimism, as opposed to past years where good players seemed to pop up one at a time and either fade away or move on. The past 2 years, lack of patience was setting in more than ever after for the first time in my life having a Cubs team that was able to contend for more than a year at a time. Even when frustrations were at their highest with the mess of a team we had, I still had optimism for the future considering the amount of money we had coming off the books, and this was before we'd even entertained the possibility that Theo Epstein, let alone a front office dream team lead by him could be a reality. Before that, I was optimistic that we could go out and buy another team to contend for a few years and hope that a few prospects panned out to supplement our shiny new expensive free agents. However, until Theo started doing his thing I never would have had this kind of mentality that it's OK to take a few years to build our own dynasty, although using that word might be overly optimistic. At this point, I'm willing to accept that 2012 and 2013 are not likely to be the year, but I don't think it's as far away as some think. When we signed Epstein, a lot of people thought we were going to become the Red Sox, but maybe we become the Rays instead, and would that remotely be a bad thing?

 

In the past, The Cubs have been accused of being a big market team operating like a small market team, which was true. Now, it seems like they're going back to operation like a small market team, but doing it the right way. It's simply not expected for a big market team to do this kind of rebuild without big spending involved but if they can get it right with young, high ceiling players be it our own prospects or through trades and signings, then comes the time to start the big money spending to fill the remaining holes left by those that don't pan out.

Edited January 8, 2012 by Little Slide Rooter

[Sammy Sofa]

Being the Rays + spending about $70-90 million more than they usually do is much better.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Being the Rays + spending about $70-90 million more than they usually do is much better.

 

But rather than spending that money now on holes we don't know if we'll have, doesn't it make more sense to use it in 2-3 years when it becomes more evident where we'll really need it. For example, I hate to bring up the Josh Hamilton conversation for the umpteenth time, and I really hope this doesn't become that but had Theo or someone who thought like him at the time been at the helm 5 years ago, maybe Hamilton would have been our center or right fielder since then and we could have used the money we spent on Fukudome and/or Milton Bradely elsewhere.

[Sammy Sofa]

Ugh, you're the worst.

 

You're talking about them maybe becoming the Rays down the line; I added I want them to be the Rays + big spending. Neither scenario is applicable right now.

 

And then you inexplicably went off on a Josh Hamilton tangent.

[seanimal]

lol what the [expletive]?

[Sammy Sofa]

I was going to say that I'd give WSR $5 if he spent one week limiting all of his posts to 3 sentences or less, but that Hamilton monstrosity is just 2.

[Benchwarmer]

Blowing it up. Change is great. Beats the band-aid approach of signing a bunch of FA to long, expensive contracts and still lose. I'm all on board on Theo's vision, talent evaluation and direction. Get rid of Soriano and a couple more players(ahem) and let's see what the team has mid-season.

[Sammy Sofa]

The Cubs' didn't have a problem of singing too many FA to long, expensive contracts.

 

And the team likely isn't going to be very good come mid-season. Building for the future is great, but let's not act like the next great or good Cubs team is even remotely close to constructed right now.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Isn't 25 year old Josh Hamilton as a Rule 5 pick the exact type of low risk huge reward that Theo would jump on? That's all I was trying to say, nothing having to do with the circumstances in which we did draft him.

[Vanilla Ice]

I was going to say that I'd give WSR $5 if he spent one week limiting all of his posts to 3 sentences or less, but that Hamilton monstrosity is just 2.

 

For example, I hate to bring up the Josh Hamilton conversation for the umpteenth time, and I really hope this doesn't become that but had Theo or someone who thought like him at the time been at the helm 5 years ago, maybe Hamilton would have been our center or right fielder since then and we could have used the money we spent on Fukudome and/or Milton Bradely elsewhere.

That is one helluva sentence.

[El Duderino]

I was going to say that I'd give WSR $5 if he spent one week limiting all of his posts to 3 sentences or less, but that Hamilton monstrosity is just 2.

 

For example, I hate to bring up the Josh Hamilton conversation for the umpteenth time, and I really hope this doesn't become that but had Theo or someone who thought like him at the time been at the helm 5 years ago, maybe Hamilton would have been our center or right fielder since then and we could have used the money we spent on Fukudome and/or Milton Bradely elsewhere.

That is one helluva sentence.

 

sorry to pile on, but I think I almost had a seizure trying to read that.

[TruffleShuffle]

yeah not even to get into the content of it. things very likely wouldn't have been different if theo were here because just about nobody in baseball thought hamilton would do what he did.

[SouthSideRyan]

Isn't 25 year old Josh Hamilton as a Rule 5 pick the exact type of low risk huge reward that Theo would jump on? That's all I was trying to say, nothing having to do with the circumstances in which we did draft him.

 

IF ONLY THEO WERE A GM AT THE TIME, HAMILTON WOULD'VE BEEN HIS