Interest in Hank Conger?

[Tyrant]

man, you really need to change the name of your site.

 

this.

[Guest]

I kind of like it. But I don't think that's enough to get Gio. Not if they were wanting Stanton or Morrison from Florida. Maybe add McNutt in there? I guess it's putting a lot of faith in Szczur, in a way. I'd much rather trade him than Brett personally. In fact, if it took Szczur, McNutt, Lake, and Struck, I'd still do it.

 

I don't think the A's would deal Gonzalez without anyone they could put on the MLB roster, and I also picked them instead of going after someone like Danks/Floyd because I think the A's would value Jackson and Flaherty more than others. Maybe it takes McNutt, that's fine, Gonzalez is probably worth it. The example holds as long as it's not a piece from the MLB roster(especially with the pitching depth in this scenario).

[RynoRules]

Will Hank be bringing Darva with him?

[RynoRules]

TT: What was Chatwood's deal last year? He was great in AA ; AAA not so much.

[Guest]

TT: What was Chatwood's deal last year? He was great in AA ; AAA not so much.

 

Well last year he spent the majority of the year in the MLB rotation, where he wasn't great, but he wasn't awful, especially for a 21 year old. It's hard to get a great read on him since he had less than 90 IP in AA + AAA(and those are in heavy hitters leagues), but I think he's got quite a bit in common with Cashner, although I think he'll profile a bit better in relief(relative to the rotation) than Cashner.

[Guest]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2011/11/23/lukewarm-stove-the-cubs-and-angels-have-discussed-geovany-soto-carlos-marmol-and-hank-conger/

 

AceCubbie's blog entry elaborating on his tweet.

[davell]

I think I would trade Soto straight up for Conger personally. Because I'm starting to believe Castillo has solid value as well and could be dealt in a package for another need, maybe filling 3rd base.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Thinking out loud here.

 

Soto and Marmol for Chatwood and Conger, sign Cespedes with the savings

Jackson, Flaherty, and Struck for Gio Gonzalez

Sign Pujols and Darvish

Acquire your favorite cheap 3B

 

Castro

Byrd

Pujols

Cespedes

Soriano

3B

Conger

Barney

 

Garza/Darvish/Gonzalez/Dempster/Z/Cashner

Marshall/Chatwood/Samardzija/Wood/Russell

 

The offense is an exercise in uncertainty, but the pitching is incredible. I go back and forth on switching Cashner and Chatwood too.

 

I think it might take more like Jackson, McNutt, Flaherty to land Gio. As for the cheap 3B, I don't know what we're going to get that's going to be that will be much of an upgrade over some kind of Baker/DeWitt/LeMahieu rotation. I would like to find a corner outfield upgrade, but I guess that can wait until next year. Josh Hamilton leads the 2013 list, and then theres Andre Ethier, Carlos Quentin, and Delomon Young. There's also Shane Victorino, and we could shift Cespedes to right for him.

[BeerHere]

Thinking out loud here.

 

Soto and Marmol for Chatwood and Conger, sign Cespedes with the savings

Jackson, Flaherty, and Struck for Gio Gonzalez

Sign Pujols and Darvish

Acquire your favorite cheap 3B

 

Castro

Byrd

Pujols

Cespedes

Soriano

3B

Conger

Barney

 

Garza/Darvish/Gonzalez/Dempster/Z/Cashner

Marshall/Chatwood/Samardzija/Wood/Russell

 

The offense is an exercise in uncertainty, but the pitching is incredible. I go back and forth on switching Cashner and Chatwood too.

Isn't Darvish going to be extremely expensive (posting fees plus salary)? He's young but the track record for Japanese imports outside of Ichiro isn't great. I would tend to think that Theo would be gun shy considering how badly he was burned by the Dice-K deal.

[Guest]

I would tend to think that Theo would be smart enough not to look past all Japanese pitchers because of his one experience, and if anything, view other teams' potential fears in this market as a possible inefficiency (not that I don't think the bidding will get high for Darvish, it will) to attempt to exploit.

[RynoRules]

I kind of like it. But I don't think that's enough to get Gio. Not if they were wanting Stanton or Morrison from Florida. Maybe add McNutt in there? I guess it's putting a lot of faith in Szczur, in a way. I'd much rather trade him than Brett personally. In fact, if it took Szczur, McNutt, Lake, and Struck, I'd still do it.

 

I don't think the A's would deal Gonzalez without anyone they could put on the MLB roster, and I also picked them instead of going after someone like Danks/Floyd because I think the A's would value Jackson and Flaherty more than others. Maybe it takes McNutt, that's fine, Gonzalez is probably worth it. The example holds as long as it's not a piece from the MLB roster(especially with the pitching depth in this scenario).

 

I realize he was a 5 WAR pitcher last season and 4 the season before, but does Gio's walk rate bother you at all?

[davearm2]

Isn't Darvish going to be extremely expensive (posting fees plus salary)? He's young but the track record for Japanese imports outside of Ichiro isn't great. I would tend to think that Theo would be gun shy considering how badly he was burned by the Dice-K deal.

So long as Theo still has faith in the fundamental analysis that led them to value Dice-K the way they did, you would hope he would be willing to apply the same method to the next guy, regardless of the outcome with the first guy.

 

It's kind of like asking if a guy would be gun shy about splitting 8s in blackjack after he did so and lost.

[BeerHere]

I would tend to think that Theo would be smart enough not to look past all Japanese pitchers because of his one experience, and if anything, view other teams' potential fears in this market as a possible inefficiency (not that I don't think the bidding will get high for Darvish, it will) to attempt to exploit.

That may be but I can't think of any Japanese pitchers that have done well. Dice-K was an obvious flop. Irabu was a bust. Wang had one decent season and a bunch of meh. Kuroda? I guess my point is that Darvish will be very expensive. He may be so expensive as to exceed his value if the money could be put to better use elsewhere. I'm not against the Cubs being involved if it means the price is driven up or the Yankees etc.

[SouthSideRyan]

Wang's not Japanese.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Wang's not Japanese.

 

China, Japan, Portugal, same difference.

[BeerHere]

It's kind of like asking if a guy would be gun shy about splitting 8s in blackjack after he did so and lost.

Poor analogy, but it's more like losing, and watching everyone else lose doing the same thing without knowing how many cards are left or the statistical probability of success to any degree. Darvish is is going to cost a substantial sum of money, enough that it is safe to say that it will will curtail spending in other areas. Given the risk and potential for failure, I would much rather see the money spent on Wilson, or Pujols or Fielder or Buehrle. I don't really know the impact but Darvish is a substantial risk to me given the cost and likelihood for success to justify the expense.

[MWV]

That may be but I can't think of any Japanese pitchers that have done well.

Darvish should really be compared only with other half-Iranian NPB pitchers who have transitioned to MLB.

[Guest]

Thinking out loud here.

 

Soto and Marmol for Chatwood and Conger, sign Cespedes with the savings

Jackson, Flaherty, and Struck for Gio Gonzalez

Sign Pujols and Darvish

Acquire your favorite cheap 3B

 

Castro

Byrd

Pujols

Cespedes

Soriano

3B

Conger

Barney

 

Garza/Darvish/Gonzalez/Dempster/Z/Cashner

Marshall/Chatwood/Samardzija/Wood/Russell

 

The offense is an exercise in uncertainty, but the pitching is incredible. I go back and forth on switching Cashner and Chatwood too.

Isn't Darvish going to be extremely expensive (posting fees plus salary)? He's young but the track record for Japanese imports outside of Ichiro isn't great. I would tend to think that Theo would be gun shy considering how badly he was burned by the Dice-K deal.

 

The Cubs have already been linked to Darvish, so it seems that Theo isn't gun shy about him. Plus, as has been mentioned by others before, Theo didn't get burned by the Dice-K deal because he was a Japanese pitcher, he got burned because Dice-K got hurt. That same cautionary tale applies to all pitchers really, so it's a matter of if you like the guy that you're going after. Darvish has a lot going for him, from his age, to his build(he's 6-5, Dice-K is 6-0) to obviously his performance. Plus, the Dice-K precedent probably suppresses his likely posting fee from teams not wanting to assume so much risk with a pitcher. If you're convinced he'd be a bust, then substitute CJ Wilson in there for him, the total cost wouldn't be any more prohibitive.

[Guest]

It's kind of like asking if a guy would be gun shy about splitting 8s in blackjack after he did so and lost.

Poor analogy, but it's more like losing, and watching everyone else lose doing the same thing without knowing how many cards are left or the statistical probability of success to any degree. Darvish is is going to cost a substantial sum of money, enough that it is safe to say that it will will curtail spending in other areas. Given the risk and potential for failure, I would much rather see the money spent on Wilson, or Pujols or Fielder or Buehrle. I don't really know the impact but Darvish is a substantial risk to me given the cost and likelihood for success to justify the expense.

 

 

Is scouting a Japanese player somehow different than scouting any other player? I can see how the methods used for equivalencies with the Japanese numbers might come into question, but a scout watching a guy play is a scout watching a guy play. The level of competition isn't that relevant.

 

Why should only the results of a handful of Japanese signings matter?

[BeerHere]

Scouting Japanese pitchers isn't different, but the method to obtain them is. The posting fee is substantial.

[Guest]

Scouting Japanese pitchers isn't different, but the method to obtain them is. The posting fee is substantial.

 

 

But it's the scouting/projection that will determine whether they decide he is worth that money spent. It's not like they'll just spend way more on him than they would on another talent because they have to or something.

[davearm2]

It's kind of like asking if a guy would be gun shy about splitting 8s in blackjack after he did so and lost.

Poor analogy, but it's more like losing, and watching everyone else lose doing the same thing without knowing how many cards are left or the statistical probability of success to any degree. Darvish is is going to cost a substantial sum of money, enough that it is safe to say that it will will curtail spending in other areas. Given the risk and potential for failure, I would much rather see the money spent on Wilson, or Pujols or Fielder or Buehrle. I don't really know the impact but Darvish is a substantial risk to me given the cost and likelihood for success to justify the expense.

It's actually a perfect analogy.

 

Everyone understands that not all correct decisions work out in the end, and the blackjack example illustrates this.

 

If Theo thinks he made a correct decision with Dice-K, he should not hesitate to make the same decision again.

[BeerHere]

Thinking out loud here.

 

Soto and Marmol for Chatwood and Conger, sign Cespedes with the savings

Jackson, Flaherty, and Struck for Gio Gonzalez

Sign Pujols and Darvish

Acquire your favorite cheap 3B

 

Castro

Byrd

Pujols

Cespedes

Soriano

3B

Conger

Barney

 

Garza/Darvish/Gonzalez/Dempster/Z/Cashner

Marshall/Chatwood/Samardzija/Wood/Russell

 

The offense is an exercise in uncertainty, but the pitching is incredible. I go back and forth on switching Cashner and Chatwood too.

Isn't Darvish going to be extremely expensive (posting fees plus salary)? He's young but the track record for Japanese imports outside of Ichiro isn't great. I would tend to think that Theo would be gun shy considering how badly he was burned by the Dice-K deal.

 

The Cubs have already been linked to Darvish, so it seems that Theo isn't gun shy about him. Plus, as has been mentioned by others before, Theo didn't get burned by the Dice-K deal because he was a Japanese pitcher, he got burned because Dice-K got hurt. That same cautionary tale applies to all pitchers really, so it's a matter of if you like the guy that you're going after. Darvish has a lot going for him, from his age, to his build(he's 6-5, Dice-K is 6-0) to obviously his performance. Plus, the Dice-K precedent probably suppresses his likely posting fee from teams not wanting to assume so much risk with a pitcher. If you're convinced he'd be a bust, then substitute CJ Wilson in there for him, the total cost wouldn't be any more prohibitive.

 

The Dice-K precedent may drag down the cost, but the qualities that you mentioned (age, build, performance) are likely to drive it up. Whoever lands Darvish is going to pay a hefty posting fee. He may be worth it alone but the Cubs have several holes and do not have unlimited funds. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the posting fee is in excess of $50M and that money may be better spent elsewhere.

 

edited:

Edited November 23, 2011 by BeerHere

[davell]

I don't see the Yankees and Red Sox being heavily involved here, so I don't think the posting fee goes over 40 mill personally. But, it's not like he's definitely even coming anyway. Part of me thinks he wants to wait until those teams WILL be more involved. I've got a feeling he's staying put this offseason.

[mul21]

Scouting Japanese pitchers isn't different, but the method to obtain them is. The posting fee is substantial.

 

Actually it is different isn't it? They use a smaller ball and that will most likely affect the amount of movement they can get on a larger American baseball won't it? Not as much of an issue for a bigger guy like Darvish, but still something to consider.

 

Has he been observed pitching with the larger baseball?