Free Agency heating up, lets get Puljos!!!!

[Guest]

I like Greinke a lot more, though.

 

Of course, I also expect him to get a bigger deal than Wilson with fiercer competition.

 

Out of curiosity, why do you like Greinke a lot more? Greinke is 3 years younger, but has thrown around 500 more MLB innings than Wilson, so he's got more mileage. Greinke did have that exceptional 2009 season (9.3 WAR, 2.16/2.33/3.09 ERA/FIP/xFIP), but that's looking like a clear outlier at this point as he's been at 5.1, 4.9, 3.9, and lower the rest of his career. I could understand preferring Greinke to Wilson, but by a lot?

 

And I expect Greinke to get more too, I was just throwing numbers out there since they weren't the crux (or particularly important to) my post.

First off, I think Greinke has both better stuff and better command of it.

 

Second, the above shows up in the statistical profile quite clearly. Check the k/bb ratios for the two guys: 4.47 to 2.78. Flat out, I like Greinke a lot better.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

First off, I think Greinke has both better stuff and better command of it.

 

Second, the above shows up in the statistical profile quite clearly. Check the k/bb ratios for the two guys: 4.47 to 2.78. Flat out, I like Greinke a lot better.

 

Don't disagree that Greinke is better, but I do question whether he'd want to pitch in a big market still.

[Guest]

First off, I think Greinke has both better stuff and better command of it.

 

Second, the above shows up in the statistical profile quite clearly. Check the k/bb ratios for the two guys: 4.47 to 2.78. Flat out, I like Greinke a lot better.

 

Don't disagree that Greinke is better, but I do question whether he'd want to pitch in a big market still.

Well, that's not a big question in terms of which to pursue.

 

BTW - I don't mean to say that we shouldn't pursue Wilson so that we can sign Greinke next year. I'm hoping we can take the savings from Dempster/Zambrano after 2012 and get him if he's willing to play in Chicago. I'm also hoping he's as unlucky in 2012 as he was in 2011 so that his price stays reasonable (and Milwaukee is out of luck, too).

[dew1679666265]

First off, I think Greinke has both better stuff and better command of it.

 

Second, the above shows up in the statistical profile quite clearly. Check the k/bb ratios for the two guys: 4.47 to 2.78. Flat out, I like Greinke a lot better.

 

Hadn't looked at K/BB, Greinke is definitely a lot better there. The career numbers are a decent amount closer (3.48 to 2.16), however, and Wilson has improved both his K/9 and BB/9 from year one to year two. Greinke will remain better than Wilson in that area, I'm sure, but it'll be interesting to see if Wilson continues to improve on those numbers into next year.

 

I also wonder what Greinke did differently this year, as he had his best K/9 ratio of his career, by nearly a full strikeout over 2009.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

But you're going to have to offer more than the Cardinals are offering to get him to leave. If the Cards are the highest bidder, he's going to stay there. And if the Cards are offering an extra year or two than the Cubs - say 8 years vs. 6 - then another team will have to offer more money per year.

 

There's a lot of room between "more money per year" and $7.5 million more per year.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I'd just as soon sign him(or Fielder) and call it an offseason, unless we can get Sizemore for cheap and perhaps a cheap reclamation type starting pitcher and call it a day. I'd then like to keep building next offseason when we have the Dempster, Zambrano, Byrd, and remaining Pena money off the books, and see what's available then through FA or trade.

 

Since we know that money's coming off the books next year either way, why is it better to wait and commit money next year instead of the same money this year? The Demp, Z, Pena, etc., money comes off the books at the same time, in the same way next year whether we sign Wilson to a 5/90 deal this offseason or Greinke to a 5/90 deal next offseason.

I like Greinke a lot more, though.

 

Of course, I also expect him to get a bigger deal than Wilson with fiercer competition.

 

I don't think it's wise to spend money just because you have it. I like Wilson, but don't see him being worth what he'll end up with due to the market.

 

As for Greinke, I don't know how he'll do in a big market setting, and the money he'll command is too much to risk if he can't take it.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Well, that's not a big question in terms of which to pursue.

 

BTW - I don't mean to say that we shouldn't pursue Wilson so that we can sign Greinke next year. I'm hoping we can take the savings from Dempster/Zambrano after 2012 and get him if he's willing to play in Chicago. I'm also hoping he's as unlucky in 2012 as he was in 2011 so that his price stays reasonable (and Milwaukee is out of luck, too).

 

It most definitely is. If Greinke is adverse to pitching in a big market, then he's going to lose some points in that battle.

 

I would love Greinke though...for whatever reason whenever I think Greinke I think of Mike Mussina (aces of mid-level teams who make for strong 1B/2 types in a big market), and Mike Mussina was awesome. Power pitchers with a little bit of finesse in their game that reflects their intelligence, and both are a bit surly/stand-offish...it's a vague comparison w/e...

[shnsajax]

If the Cubs sign Pujols we need to have an occupy St. Louis Day w/ everyone wearing Pujols Cub's jersey.

 

On the Wilson subject, I would rather have Colby Lewis over Wilson. Too bad he isn't available either.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

On the Wilson subject, I would rather have Colby Lewis over Wilson. Too bad he isn't available either.

 

Salary neutral? That sounds crazy.

[dew1679666265]

If the Cubs sign Pujols we need to have an occupy St. Louis Day w/ everyone wearing Pujols Cub's jersey.

 

On the Wilson subject, I would rather have Colby Lewis over Wilson. Too bad he isn't available either.

 

Really? He had a really nice year in 2010 (3.72/3.55/3.74 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 4.6 WAR) but followed that up with a very mediocre 2011 (4.40/4.54/4.10 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 2.3 WAR). The K/BB is lower than Wilson's (career is, this season he was higher).

 

Granted he does have fewer ML innings pitched than Wilson by around 80 and he'd be cheaper, but he's a year older (will be 33 next year) and appears to be the lesser pitcher.

[Guest]

6/$30 makes me flinch a little. I'd probably do it, but I wouldn't feel like I was getting a bargain or anything.

 

I don't understand how you can expect anything better.

 

Hell, I don't know how you could expect anything that good. That's a steal.

 

Edit: I don't know if celebrations get any more joyful or pure than my naked street dance, but if we sign him at 6/180, I'll be doing whatever that is.

 

I'm guessing Kyle's trepidation comes primarily from your naked street dance celebration.

[Guest]

Well, that's not a big question in terms of which to pursue.

 

BTW - I don't mean to say that we shouldn't pursue Wilson so that we can sign Greinke next year. I'm hoping we can take the savings from Dempster/Zambrano after 2012 and get him if he's willing to play in Chicago. I'm also hoping he's as unlucky in 2012 as he was in 2011 so that his price stays reasonable (and Milwaukee is out of luck, too).

 

It most definitely is. If Greinke is adverse to pitching in a big market, then he's going to lose some points in that battle.

 

I would love Greinke though...for whatever reason whenever I think Greinke I think of Mike Mussina (aces of mid-level teams who make for strong 1B/2 types in a big market), and Mike Mussina was awesome. Power pitchers with a little bit of finesse in their game that reflects their intelligence, and both are a bit surly/stand-offish...it's a vague comparison w/e...

Perhaps I'm not being clear...

 

The Cubs should pursue Greinke whether he is averse to pitching in a big market or not.

 

Where he chooses to play is a different matter entirely.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Perhaps I'm not being clear...

 

The Cubs should pursue Greinke whether he is averse to pitching in a big market or not.

 

Where he chooses to play is a different matter entirely.

 

Ah. Makes sense to me...I think Hamels and Greinke are the most talented of the talented 2013 FA crop.

[shnsajax]

 

On the Wilson subject, I would rather have Colby Lewis over Wilson. Too bad he isn't available either.

 

Salary neutral? That sounds crazy.

 

Not neutral, as a cheaper alternative.

[dew1679666265]

 

On the Wilson subject, I would rather have Colby Lewis over Wilson. Too bad he isn't available either.

 

Salary neutral? That sounds crazy.

 

Not neutral, as a cheaper alternative.

 

And significantly worse most likely. Unless he can repeat his 2010 performance then you're getting at best a middle of the rotation arm who's going to be 33 next year. Not a lot of mileage, but I'm not seeing much upside.

[davearm2]

I'll dance naked in the streets if we sign Albert for 6/200mm

Thanks for the warning ;)

[davearm2]

And the money they're making due to this WS translates to them paying his entire new contract....how exactly?

I said add it to their offer. If that offer was $200 over 9 or whatever, now it's $200 + x.

 

That still seems like it would put them too far apart, at least over a contract the length of what Pujols reportedly wants.

I dunno what it'd take for the Cards to get Pujols to re-sign, and neither do you.

 

What we do know is that they have more money in the bank now than if they had missed the playoffs. Using that extra money to boost up their offer sure seems reasonable to me. :shrug:

 

Ergo, winning the WS does change the equation in the Cards' favor.

[mul21]

 

If you subscribe to the 1 WAR = $5 mil theory, he's an excellent bet to exceed the proposed $30 million AAV for the first 3-4 years. I think you're greatly understating the value of "taking a few years off the end." I would rather not commit Theo's sin of paying for past performance in years 7-10 or whatever. Rather pay him what he's worth when he's worth it; needless to say, that means happily upping the AAV.

 

Yes, this. You're getting a much better WAR:$ value by doing it shorter and with a higher AAV. And in the years you would have had him at 1B (7-10), you can get somebody different for cheaper/the same money and get a more accurate value for them.

[Sammy Sofa]

And the money they're making due to this WS translates to them paying his entire new contract....how exactly?

I said add it to their offer. If that offer was $200 over 9 or whatever, now it's $200 + x.

 

That still seems like it would put them too far apart, at least over a contract the length of what Pujols reportedly wants.

I dunno what it'd take for the Cards to get Pujols to re-sign, and neither do you.

 

What we do know is that they have more money in the bank now than if they had missed the playoffs. Using that extra money to boost up their offer sure seems reasonable to me. :shrug:

 

Ergo, winning the WS does change the equation in the Cards' favor.

 

No. Winning the WS does not improve their long-term financial resources to retain Albert Pujols.

 

I seriously doubt you're suggesting they'd offer up some kind of absurdly front-loaded contract, so let's just nip this silly tangent in the bud right now.

[davearm2]

And the money they're making due to this WS translates to them paying his entire new contract....how exactly?

I said add it to their offer. If that offer was $200 over 9 or whatever, now it's $200 + x.

 

That still seems like it would put them too far apart, at least over a contract the length of what Pujols reportedly wants.

I dunno what it'd take for the Cards to get Pujols to re-sign, and neither do you.

 

What we do know is that they have more money in the bank now than if they had missed the playoffs. Using that extra money to boost up their offer sure seems reasonable to me. :shrug:

 

Ergo, winning the WS does change the equation in the Cards' favor.

 

No. Winning the WS does not improve their long-term financial resources to retain Albert Pujols.

 

I seriously doubt you're suggesting they'd offer up some kind of absurdly front-loaded contract, so let's just nip this silly tangent in the bud right now.

Why is this so hard to figure out?

 

The Cards are struggling to find a way to afford to keep their greatest player ever.

 

Serendipitously enough, they just stumbled into a financial windfall by playing an additional 18 postseason games.

 

Put two and two together here.

 

"Hey Albert -- remember that offer we gave you in the spring? It's still good, but add another $X million onto the signing bonus."

[17 Seconds]

hey albert good news we got some extra money and its enough to pay you more all the way through 2021

[Guest]

Dave,

 

How big do you think X would be? I guess that would be the difference in it being a significant factor or not.

[Sammy Sofa]

hey albert good news we got some extra money and its enough to pay you more all the way through 2021

 

Pretty much. This is goofy, even for davearm2.

[davearm2]

Dave,

 

How big do you think X would be? I guess that would be the difference in it being a significant factor or not.

I found a great article on this, actually, although it illustrates only gross ticket revenues.

 

http://www.bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3081:mlb-average-postseason-revenue-over-the-last-decade&catid=26:editorials&Itemid=39

 

Using their math, the Cards' gross ticket revenue estimate for 2011 postseason was $3.5M (NLDS) + $6.6M (NLCS) + $14M (WS) = roughly $24M.

 

Not included are:

game-day expenses

ancillary game-day revenues (parking, merchandise, concessions etc)

indirect revenues that accrue the following season (new or increased sponsorships, added season ticket sales, etc).

 

Naturally all of those things are going to be sketchy to estimate, but you've got $24M in the pot right off the bat.

[davearm2]

hey albert good news we got some extra money and its enough to pay you more all the way through 2021

 

Pretty much. This is goofy, even for davearm2.

Rather than jumping directly to the conclusion that anything that comes out of my mouth must automatically be goofy, maybe you should take a closer look.

 

The Cards just raked in a whole bunch of extra cash this month.

 

Handing a chunk of it to Albert to convince him to stay hardly seems goofy to me.