BA's 2011 SL Top 20 Prospects

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Once again, no real surprises here: 1 Cub made the list - Brett Jackson at #4. Jackson was ranked ahead of Jarrod Parker, Arodys Vizcaino and Randall Delgado. Chris Archer came in at 11.

 

4. BRETT JACKSON OF, TENNESSEE SMOKIES (CUBS)

Age: 23. B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 210. Drafted: California, '09 (1).

Jackson was one of the circuit's best two-way threats for the first three months and then kicked his offensive game into an extra gear after he was promoted to Triple-A in July. He's a well-rounded player with the potential for five average or better tools.

 

Jackson is an aggressive hitter within the strike zone but has a selective approach. He works deep counts and when he swings, he swings hard and shows good bat speed with solid-average raw power. He's not a high-contact hitter, though, as he'll swing through fastballs and breaking balls and he pulls off the ball occasionally.

 

Though he's not a burner, Jackson is an above-average runner who can steal bases. He plays a solid center field with good jumps and an average, accurate arm.

[BeerHere]

Love the "5 year ago" list - Gallardo, Votta, Braun, Kemp, Sanchez, Salty and the two Cubs on that list - Eric Patterson at 17 and Gallagher at 12.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

How does BJ Upton sound like a comp for Jackson offensively?

 

Keep in mind that Upton plays in a run hungry MLB in a run depressing park...Jackson's got one advantage Upton doesn't have in that he hasn't gone through any significant issues with his shoulder...OTOH Upton is probably the better athlete, which is more of a compliment to him than a knock on Jackson.

[BeerHere]

Commish (NY): Really? No Josh Vitters? Seems like he's now being uundervalued due to the failure to live up to the hype. I think this is one guy who still could prove to be better than a good portion of the players ahead of him on this list. I certainly would slot him ahead of Archer..that seems about right.

 

Ben Badler: Vitters improved as a hitter this year, but there just wasn't much support for him. He's a below-average defender at third base, to the point where I would be surprised if he stayed at the position and didn't end up as a corner outfielder. He has good bat speed, a short stroke and makes a lot of contact, but he's still learning a major league approach to wait for his pitch to hit, he'll never be a big OBP guy, and it's not like he's a guy with 70 raw power to carry him. There are people who think he could improve enough to become a solid everyday, but I think the most likely outcome is something short of that.

 

 

Ryan (Abingdon, MD): Brett Jackson & AJ Pollack are both well rounded players where the sum is greater than the parts. Can you give some insight as to why they are so far apart in these rankings?

 

Ben Badler: You're right, they do have similarities, but I think Jackson's tools are better than Pollock's. Power, for one, is an edge for Jackson. Pollock won't strike out as much as Jackson, so he might end up with the higher batting average, but Jackson works the count well and has more upside in terms of getting on base. They both have broad skill sets, but there's an edge for Jackson in OBP and power that I think is significant here.

 

 

Ben (Leland Grove): How much did Trey McNutt regress this year?

 

Ben Badler: McNutt was probably the most challenging player in the league to evaluate. The whole season, he wasn't 100 percent, spent time on the DL and battled through blisters. I think that took away from his stuff and his command and led to a fairly nondescript year. When I saw him in April, the fastball was plus, 90-95 with the two-seamer and the four-seamer, but the rest of the arsenal was just OK, with a power curveball and a slider that were tough to distinguish and a changeup he went to occasionally. Nobody I talked to who saw McNutt this year saw frontline stuff and there was a general feeling of being underwhelmed, but if he's healthy in 2012 I wouldn't be stunned if he had a bounceback year.

 

Navin (Pasadena, CA): Who do you prefer between Ryan Flaherty and DJ LeMahieu? Can either be a big league starting second baseman?

 

Ben Badler: Most people I talk to say LeMahieu; shorter swing, makes more contact, hits for a higher average in the minors, but I still like Flaherty more. He's got more power both to the pull side and to the middle of the field, plus he'll take his walks and get on base. With LeMahieu, I think big league pitchers have and will take advantage of the fact that he's got 20, maybe 30 power at best and he won't give you much offensive value. Flaherty's older but I can see his bat playing at the major league level. The problem is if you put either of them at second base full-time, it isn't going to be pretty, but I can see Flaherty carving out a career as an offensive-oriented utility guy.

[Guest]

One more question from the chat, though the response is slanted towards Archer since Ben Badler had already responded about McNutt:

 

Dan (Chicago): Chris Archer had a less than spectacular year in the Southern League but still came in at #11, yet Trey McNutt didn't make the list at all despite an almost identical ERA and being a full year younger. Weren't they pretty close as prospects to begin the year? So what put Archer on the list and kept McNutt off it?

 

Ben Badler: I hit on McNutt a little bit earlier, but Archer showed better stuff. The problem with Archer that repeatedly came up—and came up from people who liked him a lot as a prospect—was that he 1. Needs to throw more strikes and 2. Needs to stop trying to trick everyone with his slider. The slider is a wipeout pitch at times, but he needs to learn you can't strike a guy out with a 1-1 slider off the plate. With his stuff, if he challenges hitters aggressively, he'll get to those two-strike counts where batters have to protect and he can use that slider as a chase pitch, something I think Matt Moore really learned the importance of this year when he was in Montgomery. That said, it's partly approach, partly just his ability to throw strikes, which isn't a given. If that or the development of his changeup are issues, though, he still has the stuff to dominate in a relief role.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I've said it before and I'll say it again...Chris Archer is a closer or really good set up man waiting to happen. "Needs to throw more strikes" and "tries to trick people with his breaking pitch" have been the knock for years now, and except for one stretch in High A last year he hasn't really shown either. Didn't we do the whole "can he learn to throw strikes and rely less on his breaking ball" thing with Kerry Wood? Archer is going down the same path.

 

I'm not sure on McNutt. I didn't buy him last year, and this year did nothing to raise my hopes or expectations.

[toonsterwu]

sorry for the double post. Edited October 6, 2011 by toonsterwu

[toonsterwu]

I think McNutt was a bit ... over-hyped (and perhaps a bit over-rated last year), but this year, I somewhat feel like he's being a touch ... over-looked perhaps (I think where he is being ranked is probably appropriate, so I don't think he's being under-rated). The potential is still there, and at times, he still flashed a plus breaking ball and the changeup supposedly improved. His control is fine (I mean, he only had a bad stretch post-rib injury in June/July where his control ran into some issues). The blister problems, combined with missing time, probably hampered his ability to be consistent with the breaking pitches. I see some of the arms being hyped up this offseason, like a Jarrod Cosart, and I just don't see a huge difference b/w a guy like that and McNutt (hence why I think McNutt is being overlooked). Cosart's breaking ball is quite inconsistent.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I think McNutt was a bit ... over-hyped last year, but this year, I somewhat feel like he's being a touch ... over-looked perhaps (I think where he is being ranked is probably appropriate, so I don't think he's being under-rated). The potential is still there, and at times, he still flashed a plus breaking ball and the changeup supposedly improved.

 

Pretty much. His fastball velocity is going to set the perceptions of him, and it's hard to get a good read on what his fastball really is. He's big and strong with good mechanics and a loose arm though so I definitely agree that he's being a little overlooked to make up for the over hype last year.

[toonsterwu]

On McNutt's fastball - I think his 2-seamer is viewed as solid, but not great. It doesn't have the nasty drop of, say, an Archer, but it has enough, perhaps above average movement. His 4-seamer has a lot of life to it at times, though. That said, unless the breaking balls are consistent, he won't get that far.

[Rob]

Badler giving LeMahieu 20 power (30 at best) is awfully disconcerting.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Badler giving LeMahieu 20 power (30 at best) is awfully disconcerting.

 

Boo.

[Rob]

Badler giving LeMahieu 20 power (30 at best) is awfully disconcerting.

 

Boo.

 

It's a valid concern. People have been saying "the power will come" since he was in college, but it never really has. And it likely wont unless he completely retools his swing. That's scary.

[TruffleShuffle]

kind of surprised that goldschmidt was #3... i guess the scouting reports finally caught up to the production.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Badler giving LeMahieu 20 power (30 at best) is awfully disconcerting.

 

Boo.

 

It's a valid concern. People have been saying "the power will come" since he was in college, but it never really has. And it likely wont unless he completely retools his swing. That's scary.

 

It is valid, but the player beyond that is an interesting one and a pretty solid looking one for 22. The book isn't closed on him gaining power either. I could see him ending up a gap hitter who can hit maybe 8-12 HRs, possibly better. He did do better getting XBHs in the minors last year, and physically he's a taller, lankier guy who can get stronger.

[Guest]

Badler giving LeMahieu 20 power (30 at best) is awfully disconcerting.

 

Boo.

 

It's a valid concern. People have been saying "the power will come" since he was in college, but it never really has. And it likely wont unless he completely retools his swing. That's scary.

 

It is valid, but the player beyond that is an interesting one and a pretty solid looking one for 22. The book isn't closed on him gaining power either. I could see him ending up a gap hitter who can hit maybe 8-12 HRs, possibly better. He did do better getting XBHs in the minors last year, and physically he's a taller, lankier guy who can get stronger.

 

The problem is his defensive position is 3B - he needs to add power.

[mul21]

The problem is his defensive position is 3B - he needs to add power.

 

You think he's just too tall? Who's the biggest defensively solid 2B you can think of? Sandberg? DeRosa?

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

 

The problem is his defensive position is 3B - he needs to add power.

 

I think he could handle 2B just fine. There he's Barney with room for growth.

Edited October 6, 2011 by KingKongvs.Godzilla

[toonsterwu]

The problem is his defensive position is 3B - he needs to add power.

 

You think he's just too tall? Who's the biggest defensively solid 2B you can think of? Sandberg? DeRosa?

 

it's more that he's viewed as not having elite reactions/range at 2nd. LeMahieu at 2nd is a ... Theriot at shortstop type in that, he gets to the balls he can.

 

Now, if LeMahieu's power developed a bit more (and the hit tool stayed the same), you could live with average, maybe a tick below average defense there.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

The problem is his defensive position is 3B - he needs to add power.

 

You think he's just too tall? Who's the biggest defensively solid 2B you can think of? Sandberg? DeRosa?

 

it's more that he's viewed as not having elite reactions/range at 2nd. LeMahieu at 2nd is a ... Theriot at shortstop type in that, he gets to the balls he can.

 

Now, if LeMahieu's power developed a bit more (and the hit tool stayed the same), you could live with average, maybe a tick below average defense there.

 

Lemahieu at SS is more like what you describe Lemahieu at 2B. I thought he moved really well at 2B, and his tools play up bc he's a player who doesnt waste moves and keeps his head on.

Edited October 6, 2011 by KingKongvs.Godzilla

[toonsterwu]

Don't know about that. I thought that way for awhile to, that he looked to have at least a tick above average range at 2nd, but the general opinion seems to suggest average or a tick below.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Don't know about that. I thought that way for awhile to, that he looked to have at least a tick above average range at 2nd, but the general opinion seems to suggest average or a tick below.

 

I haven't read much of a general opinion one way or another at 2B. Another thing I'm thinking about is that the last tall 2B I can remember as a prospect is Chase Utley, who BA listed as a 3B as late as '03 or '05 or both. It's just talk...seeing him play you can see there's a smart, decisive defender who moves well laterally but not SS well....though I think he could handle a start at SS in an emergency. His D is a big part of why I'm high on Lemahieu...that and he's really got an excellent "way about him" as far as makeup is concerned.

 

Oh and Im remembering that when he was drafted Wilken mentioned that his power was probably 3+ years away. Its something Ithink they were aware of but likedthe things he COULD do enough to take him in the 2nd.