Back of the Rotation Possibility

[Backtobanks]

From MLBTR:

 

Dodgers Decline Options On Garland, Blake

By Tim Dierkes [October 4 at 2:03pm CST]

The Dodgers announced on Twitter today that they've declined club options on starter Jon Garland and third baseman Casey Blake, and also outrighted Eugenio Velez to Triple-A. Typically option decisions are announced after the World Series, but Garland and Blake were obvious choices.

 

For Garland, the Dodgers chose a $500K buyout over an $8MM club option. Garland had signed for a below-market guarantee of $5MM in November, but a vesting option in the contract became moot when the righty when down for an oblique injury in March and shoulder surgery in July. Garland, now 32, had previously been a lock for around 200 innings per season. If Garland is healthy, his agents at LSW Baseball should have no problem finding a one-year deal worth a few million plus incentives, along with a back-end rotation job.

 

Depending on our other offseason moves and Garland's health, he might be a low risk/high reward pickup on the deal mentioned.

[davell]

I wonder if we're looking at Wells as a definite for the rotation next year? If so, my guess is we will have 2 spots open. One will probably be a competition between Cashner and Shark. The other will be a frontline type either through FA or via trade. At any rate, I don't think we'll be spending money on a 5th starter type. Just a minor league deal or two to try and find that 6th and 7th guy who'll wind up making starts for us at times.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I wonder if we're looking at Wells as a definite for the rotation next year? If so, my guess is we will have 2 spots open. One will probably be a competition between Cashner and Shark. The other will be a frontline type either through FA or via trade. At any rate, I don't think we'll be spending money on a 5th starter type. Just a minor league deal or two to try and find that 6th and 7th guy who'll wind up making starts for us at times.

 

+1,000,000

 

I don't think they'll waste any time looking for back of the rotation pieces when this team needs front line talent more than anything.

[dew1679666265]

Depending on our other offseason moves and Garland's health, he might be a low risk/high reward pickup on the deal mentioned.

 

Is he really a high reward type of guy? He's had 3 seasons out of 12 where he's posted an ERA below 4.00 and has a career K/9 of 4.86. His best WAR season was 3.9 (1.9 career average) and his xFIP has been between 4.10 and 4.86 his entire career.

 

He's a really good bet to be mediocre. That said, I'd consider him if the Cubs give away Z. He's a really good bet to provide stability (stable mediocrity, but that's better than we had this year) to the back end of the rotation should we miss out on both Wilson and CC. I don't see any way that he's a high reward guy though.

[dew1679666265]

I wonder if we're looking at Wells as a definite for the rotation next year? If so, my guess is we will have 2 spots open. One will probably be a competition between Cashner and Shark. The other will be a frontline type either through FA or via trade. At any rate, I don't think we'll be spending money on a 5th starter type. Just a minor league deal or two to try and find that 6th and 7th guy who'll wind up making starts for us at times.

 

I'd be really surprised, given his injury issues, if Cashner were considered very strongly for the major league rotation next year - at least early on. I expect they'll start him out in the AAA rotation and maybe give him some time in the majors as an injury fill-in or something. And I really hope they don't move Shark to the rotation. He's just now settled in and started excelling in the pen, don't start moving him around again.

 

My guess is next year's rotation is Garza/Demp/Wells/?/? - with the question marks being filled by two of Z/Wilson or CC/cheap filler options.

[Rob]

I wonder if we're looking at Wells as a definite for the rotation next year? If so, my guess is we will have 2 spots open. One will probably be a competition between Cashner and Shark. The other will be a frontline type either through FA or via trade. At any rate, I don't think we'll be spending money on a 5th starter type. Just a minor league deal or two to try and find that 6th and 7th guy who'll wind up making starts for us at times.

 

I'd be pretty surprised if we try to move Samardzija back into the rotation. He's never had much success as a SP, and his stuff plays way up in the pen.

[Backtobanks]

Depending on our other offseason moves and Garland's health, he might be a low risk/high reward pickup on the deal mentioned.

 

Is he really a high reward type of guy? He's had 3 seasons out of 12 where he's posted an ERA below 4.00 and has a career K/9 of 4.86. His best WAR season was 3.9 (1.9 career average) and his xFIP has been between 4.10 and 4.86 his entire career.

 

He's a really good bet to be mediocre. That said, I'd consider him if the Cubs give away Z. He's a really good bet to provide stability (stable mediocrity, but that's better than we had this year) to the back end of the rotation should we miss out on both Wilson and CC. I don't see any way that he's a high reward guy though.

 

Compared to Coleman and Lopez, a #5 starter who can give you a WAR of 1.9 and 180+ innings looks like a godsend to me.

[davell]

Not when it's at least likely he'll cost 3 to 5 mill. We don't have an unlimited budget and the money we have needs to be stretched into a 1B, 3B, and 2 SP's who are better than a Garland type.

[dew1679666265]

Compared to Coleman and Lopez, a #5 starter who can give you a WAR of 1.9 and 180+ innings looks like a godsend to me.

 

Right, which is why I wouldn't oppose adding him as a safety net should we lose out on the good options. However, to be a high reward type of guy, you have to have some upside. Garland has none - if he pitches great (for him) we might get an ERA close to 4.00 and a K/9 in the vicinity of 5.

 

He's a safe choice, but he's not a choice with any upside and that's what I took issue with in your post.

[Little Slide Rooter]

The only way I'd be interested in Garland is if Z is traded, and even then, it's a downgrade. We'd still have Garza, hopefully a TBD front end starter, and Dempster, and then we'd have Wells, Cashner, Samardzjia, and J Jackson to pick from to round out the rotation. Then again, I wouldnt be opposed to trading Wells to a team interested in a cheap back of the rotation starter whose under team control for a few more years.

[BeerHere]

Any rotation discussion this offseason has to include a true #1/ace IMO. I am assuming that Z is gone. A perfect offseason for me rotation-wise lands CJ Wilson and CC if he opts out. If 2012 starts without at least two new starters then we're setup for another crap season. I think the team likes Shark out of the pen where his stuff plays up. Cashner and Wells as the #5 with Jackson, maybe Beeler or Rusin available in the event of injury.

 

Sabathia

Wilson

Garza

Dempster

Wells/Cashner

 

That is an outstanding rotation and would compete with the top rotations in the NL. This is a critical offseason in terms of the rotation.

 

Does Greinke have an opt out?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Any rotation discussion this offseason has to include a true #1/ace IMO. I am assuming that Z is gone. A perfect offseason for me rotation-wise lands CJ Wilson and CC if he opts out. If 2012 starts without at least two new starters then we're setup for another crap season. I think the team likes Shark out of the pen where his stuff plays up. Cashner and Wells as the #5 with Jackson, maybe Beeler or Rusin available in the event of injury.

 

Sabathia

Wilson

Garza

Dempster

Wells/Cashner

 

That is an outstanding rotation and would compete with the top rotations in the NL. This is a critical offseason in terms of the rotation.

 

Does Greinke have an opt out?

 

Sure, lets just go after King Felix while were at it.

[Exile on Waveland]

I thought that 2006 would have disavowed anyone of the notion that mediocre-yet-reliable pitchers weren't valuable. If not, I would have surely thought this year would do so.

 

Garland may not be the answer, and a front-line starter is always more desirable, but someone akin to Garland would be very useful (and maybe necessary depending on Zambrano -- or maybe even anyway, because I'm not sure Wells can be considered reliable). If the Cubs are planning on Cashner/Samardzija in the rotation, they might as simultaneously make arrangements for the Davis-Russel-Coleman calvalcade of suck.

[jersey cubs fan]

I thought that 2006 would have disavowed anyone of the notion that mediocre-yet-reliable pitchers weren't valuable. If not, I would have surely thought this year would do so.

 

Garland may not be the answer, and a front-line starter is always more desirable, but someone akin to Garland would be very useful (and maybe necessary depending on Zambrano -- or maybe even anyway, because I'm not sure Wells can be considered reliable). If the Cubs are planning on Cashner/Samardzija in the rotation, they might as simultaneously make arrangements for the Davis-Russel-Coleman calvalcade of suck.

 

They are useful, but they aren't cheap. So if you have a limited budget and needs elshwere it's just not feasible.

[Exile on Waveland]

I thought that 2006 would have disavowed anyone of the notion that mediocre-yet-reliable pitchers weren't valuable. If not, I would have surely thought this year would do so.

 

Garland may not be the answer, and a front-line starter is always more desirable, but someone akin to Garland would be very useful (and maybe necessary depending on Zambrano -- or maybe even anyway, because I'm not sure Wells can be considered reliable). If the Cubs are planning on Cashner/Samardzija in the rotation, they might as simultaneously make arrangements for the Davis-Russel-Coleman calvalcade of suck.

 

They are useful, but they aren't cheap. So if you have a limited budget and needs elshwere it's just not feasible.

 

True. However, considering I think Wilson and Sabathia are pipe dreams (not so with Pujols/Fielder), the Cubs should be looking for reliable for the time being. Seriously, the rotation is:

 

Garza

Dempster

Z (but probably not)

Wells

?

 

Overall, that's neither good nor reliable. And it's likely to get worse, since I think it's a fair assumption that Zambrano is gone. As far as Wells goes, he's gotten worse the last two years and was probably always smoke-and-mirrors. In that case, when you have two reliable starters, you have to do something.

[jersey cubs fan]

I thought that 2006 would have disavowed anyone of the notion that mediocre-yet-reliable pitchers weren't valuable. If not, I would have surely thought this year would do so.

 

Garland may not be the answer, and a front-line starter is always more desirable, but someone akin to Garland would be very useful (and maybe necessary depending on Zambrano -- or maybe even anyway, because I'm not sure Wells can be considered reliable). If the Cubs are planning on Cashner/Samardzija in the rotation, they might as simultaneously make arrangements for the Davis-Russel-Coleman calvalcade of suck.

 

They are useful, but they aren't cheap. So if you have a limited budget and needs elshwere it's just not feasible.

 

True. However, considering I think Wilson and Sabathia are pipe dreams (not so with Pujols/Fielder), the Cubs should be looking for reliable for the time being. Seriously, the rotation is:

 

Garza

Dempster

Z (but probably not)

Wells

?

 

Overall, that's neither good nor reliable. And it's likely to get worse, since I think it's a fair assumption that Zambrano is gone. As far as Wells goes, he's gotten worse the last two years and was probably always smoke-and-mirrors. In that case, when you have two reliable starters, you have to do something.

 

The smart thing to do is keep Zambrano and go out and get the best guy you can find.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I thought that 2006 would have disavowed anyone of the notion that mediocre-yet-reliable pitchers weren't valuable. If not, I would have surely thought this year would do so.

 

Garland may not be the answer, and a front-line starter is always more desirable, but someone akin to Garland would be very useful (and maybe necessary depending on Zambrano -- or maybe even anyway, because I'm not sure Wells can be considered reliable). If the Cubs are planning on Cashner/Samardzija in the rotation, they might as simultaneously make arrangements for the Davis-Russel-Coleman calvalcade of suck.

 

They are useful, but they aren't cheap. So if you have a limited budget and needs elshwere it's just not feasible.

 

True. However, considering I think Wilson and Sabathia are pipe dreams (not so with Pujols/Fielder), the Cubs should be looking for reliable for the time being. Seriously, the rotation is:

 

Garza

Dempster

Z (but probably not)

Wells

?

 

Overall, that's neither good nor reliable. And it's likely to get worse, since I think it's a fair assumption that Zambrano is gone. As far as Wells goes, he's gotten worse the last two years and was probably always smoke-and-mirrors. In that case, when you have two reliable starters, you have to do something.

 

We need a front end guy. A few guys who could potentially be available through trade are James Shields, Jair Jurrjens, Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, Gavin Floyd, and John Danks though all would be pricey in terms of trade. If we want to take a gamble, Francisco Liriano or even Luke Hoochever( I know, he's getting very close to the is what he is catagory) could be cheaper. I know I've mentioned this 1,000 times, but Ben Sheets could be a worthwhile reclamation project at the right price.

[Exile on Waveland]

I thought that 2006 would have disavowed anyone of the notion that mediocre-yet-reliable pitchers weren't valuable. If not, I would have surely thought this year would do so.

 

Garland may not be the answer, and a front-line starter is always more desirable, but someone akin to Garland would be very useful (and maybe necessary depending on Zambrano -- or maybe even anyway, because I'm not sure Wells can be considered reliable). If the Cubs are planning on Cashner/Samardzija in the rotation, they might as simultaneously make arrangements for the Davis-Russel-Coleman calvalcade of suck.

 

They are useful, but they aren't cheap. So if you have a limited budget and needs elshwere it's just not feasible.

 

True. However, considering I think Wilson and Sabathia are pipe dreams (not so with Pujols/Fielder), the Cubs should be looking for reliable for the time being. Seriously, the rotation is:

 

Garza

Dempster

Z (but probably not)

Wells

?

 

Overall, that's neither good nor reliable. And it's likely to get worse, since I think it's a fair assumption that Zambrano is gone. As far as Wells goes, he's gotten worse the last two years and was probably always smoke-and-mirrors. In that case, when you have two reliable starters, you have to do something.

 

The smart thing to do is keep Zambrano and go out and get the best guy you can find.

 

You'll get no disagreement here. I'm just dubious that will happen.

[dew1679666265]

Any rotation discussion this offseason has to include a true #1/ace IMO. I am assuming that Z is gone. A perfect offseason for me rotation-wise lands CJ Wilson and CC if he opts out.

 

While I'm 100% behind pursuing either Wilson or CC, the only way we could conceivably get both would be to pass on Fielder/Pujols due to budget constraints (unless Ricketts really jacks up payroll, which is possible but can't be assumed). The perfect offseason for me is to sign Wilson (prefer him to CC due to age and less mileage) and either Pujols or Fielder. If you can free up a bit of money or raise payroll just enough, keeping Aramis would be icing on the cake.