Marlins willing to trade Nolasco?

[Clem Fandango]

A source told the South Florida Sun-Sentinel that the Marlins might look to trade Ricky Nolasco this winter.

Nolasco posted a disappointing 4.67 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 33 starts this season for the last-place Fish. He's a talented right-hander, but the cost-conscious Marlins are paying him to be a reliable number two or three starter and he has not been that. They signed the 28-year-old to a three-year, $26.5 million extension last offseason.

 

He's been far greater than his numbers indicate. He's had some seriously bad luck (.331 BABIP, 2nd highest in the majors), but he's got a 3.53 FIP and 3.55 xFIP and a 3.4 WAR (according to FranGraphs) and if you care to put stock into their "Dollars" metric, he's been worth $15.5 million this year, but it sounds like the Marlins are souring on him because of his traditional numbers being so pedestrian.

 

Seems like this has been his issue for the last 3 years:

 

2009: 5.06 ERA // .317 BABIP // 3.35 FIP // 3.23 xFIP // 4.3 WAR // $19.2m Dollars

2010: 4.51 ERA // .316 BABIP // 3.86 FIP // 3.37 xFIP // 2.5 WAR // $9.9m Dollars

2011: 4.67 ERA // .331 BABIP // 3.53 FIP // 3.55 xFIP // 3.4 WAR // $15.5m Dollars

 

Sounds like he's the victim of some terrible defense, might be a good person to try and swindle if they're seriously tired of his performance. Maybe attempt some sort of package surrounding Zambrano?

 

He's currently signed through 2013 and stands to make $9M next season and $11.5M in 2013

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

The Cubs already have one of those types in Randy Wells. They should be looking to do better than that.

[Clem Fandango]

The Cubs already have one of those types in Randy Wells. They should be looking to do better than that.

 

Randy Wells' FIP this year was 5.11 and his xFIP was 4.44. He's been worth .2 wins this season. His BABIP is actually .275 which means he's actually been luckier than normal.

 

Wells has been terrible this year, and even if he was halfway decent, he still doesn't quite compare to the talent level that Nolasco has. Nolasco is kind of the exact pitcher we should look to acquire to help rebuild the rotation with what we can all assume is the inevitable departure of Zambrano, if the Marlins are willing to move him for the right price, of course.

 

And if the Cubs, for whatever reason, decide to bring Pena back and not pursue Fielder or Pujols, that will save them plenty of money to also tackle Wilson's contract as well if they choose to pursue him.

 

A rotation of:

 

Wilson

Garza

Nolasco

Dempster

Cashner

 

Would be a pretty damn fine rotation

Edited September 26, 2011 by The Logan

[pitchcs]

Have to agree that Nolasco is a significant upgrade to Randy Wells.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

I would love to have Nolasco penciled in the 3 or 4 spot. I think you take on the salary and just give up less.

 

Sox dump Ozzie, Marlins sign Ozzie as new manager.

 

Cubs trade Z, Colvin, cash and prospects for Logan Morrison and Ricky Nolasco (possibly expand prospects and deal to take on Hanley?) =D>. Sign Wilson/Fielder, try to keep Rammy(if no hanley) plan B/C being Cuddyer or the Flaherty/Baker combo worst case.

 

Dump Soriano

 

Best Case:

 

SS Castro

CF Jackson

1B Fielder

3B Ramirez(Aramis or Hanley)

LF Morrison

C Soto

RF Byrd

2B DJ Lemahieu

 

Wilson, Garza, Dempster(if he stays), Nolasco, Wells/Cashner

 

I would definitely dig into Nolasco and Morrison together that could be a great way to improve the club without adding too much payroll.

[KingCubsFan]

A source told the South Florida Sun-Sentinel that the Marlins might look to trade Ricky Nolasco this winter.

Nolasco posted a disappointing 4.67 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 33 starts this season for the last-place Fish. He's a talented right-hander, but the cost-conscious Marlins are paying him to be a reliable number two or three starter and he has not been that. They signed the 28-year-old to a three-year, $26.5 million extension last offseason.

 

He's been far greater than his numbers indicate. He's had some seriously bad luck (.331 BABIP, 2nd highest in the majors), but he's got a 3.53 FIP and 3.55 xFIP and a 3.4 WAR (according to FranGraphs) and if you care to put stock into their "Dollars" metric, he's been worth $15.5 million this year, but it sounds like the Marlins are souring on him because of his traditional numbers being so pedestrian.

 

Seems like this has been his issue for the last 3 years:

 

2009: 5.06 ERA // .317 BABIP // 3.35 FIP // 3.23 xFIP // 4.3 WAR // $19.2m Dollars

2010: 4.51 ERA // .316 BABIP // 3.86 FIP // 3.37 xFIP // 2.5 WAR // $9.9m Dollars

2011: 4.67 ERA // .331 BABIP // 3.53 FIP // 3.55 xFIP // 3.4 WAR // $15.5m Dollars

 

Sounds like he's the victim of some terrible defense, might be a good person to try and swindle if they're seriously tired of his performance. Maybe attempt some sort of package surrounding Zambrano?

 

He's currently signed through 2013 and stands to make $9M next season and $11.5M in 2013

At what point do you look at the BABIP numbers and say and wonder if it's not really bad luck, but merely getting hit hard because his stuff is in decline? He's had injuries, and the strikout rate really plummeted this year.

[CubColtPacer]

I would love to have Nolasco penciled in the 3 or 4 spot. I think you take on the salary and just give up less.

 

Sox dump Ozzie, Marlins sign Ozzie as new manager.

 

Cubs trade Z, Colvin, cash and prospects for Logan Morrison and Ricky Nolasco (possibly expand prospects and deal to take on Hanley?) =D>. Sign Wilson/Fielder, try to keep Rammy(if no hanley) plan B/C being Cuddyer or the Flaherty/Baker combo worst case.

 

Dump Soriano

 

Best Case:

 

SS Castro

CF Jackson

1B Fielder

3B Ramirez(Aramis or Hanley)

LF Morrison

C Soto

RF Byrd

2B DJ Lemahieu

 

Wilson, Garza, Dempster(if he stays), Nolasco, Wells/Cashner

 

I would definitely dig into Nolasco and Morrison together that could be a great way to improve the club without adding too much payroll.

 

Nolasco and Morrison are the best two players in that deal. I can't imagine the Marlins come even close to agreeing to that unless the Cubs are sending 4-5 significant prospects.

[BeerHere]

I'd love to get Nolasco, CJ Wilson and perhaps Edwin Jackson as well. I would love to see it but I'm not sure that we should count on Cashner for next season. Shoulder injuries are tough. I would shop Dempster as well.

 

Garza

CJ Wilson

Dempster/Jackson

Nolasco

Cashner/Wells/other

 

[Sammy Sofa]

You would shop Dempster in the offseason? That doesn't seem...wise.

[Clem Fandango]

A source told the South Florida Sun-Sentinel that the Marlins might look to trade Ricky Nolasco this winter.

Nolasco posted a disappointing 4.67 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 33 starts this season for the last-place Fish. He's a talented right-hander, but the cost-conscious Marlins are paying him to be a reliable number two or three starter and he has not been that. They signed the 28-year-old to a three-year, $26.5 million extension last offseason.

 

He's been far greater than his numbers indicate. He's had some seriously bad luck (.331 BABIP, 2nd highest in the majors), but he's got a 3.53 FIP and 3.55 xFIP and a 3.4 WAR (according to FranGraphs) and if you care to put stock into their "Dollars" metric, he's been worth $15.5 million this year, but it sounds like the Marlins are souring on him because of his traditional numbers being so pedestrian.

 

Seems like this has been his issue for the last 3 years:

 

2009: 5.06 ERA // .317 BABIP // 3.35 FIP // 3.23 xFIP // 4.3 WAR // $19.2m Dollars

2010: 4.51 ERA // .316 BABIP // 3.86 FIP // 3.37 xFIP // 2.5 WAR // $9.9m Dollars

2011: 4.67 ERA // .331 BABIP // 3.53 FIP // 3.55 xFIP // 3.4 WAR // $15.5m Dollars

 

Sounds like he's the victim of some terrible defense, might be a good person to try and swindle if they're seriously tired of his performance. Maybe attempt some sort of package surrounding Zambrano?

 

He's currently signed through 2013 and stands to make $9M next season and $11.5M in 2013

At what point do you look at the BABIP numbers and say and wonder if it's not really bad luck, but merely getting hit hard because his stuff is in decline? He's had injuries, and the strikout rate really plummeted this year.

 

Touché, but the BABIP is more or less just a justifiable stat that compliments what his FIP, xFIP, and WAR says: That he's been far better than advertised.

[Clem Fandango]

I would love to have Nolasco penciled in the 3 or 4 spot. I think you take on the salary and just give up less.

 

Sox dump Ozzie, Marlins sign Ozzie as new manager.

 

Cubs trade Z, Colvin, cash and prospects for Logan Morrison and Ricky Nolasco (possibly expand prospects and deal to take on Hanley?) =D>. Sign Wilson/Fielder, try to keep Rammy(if no hanley) plan B/C being Cuddyer or the Flaherty/Baker combo worst case.

 

Dump Soriano

 

Best Case:

 

SS Castro

CF Jackson

1B Fielder

3B Ramirez(Aramis or Hanley)

LF Morrison

C Soto

RF Byrd

2B DJ Lemahieu

 

Wilson, Garza, Dempster(if he stays), Nolasco, Wells/Cashner

 

I would definitely dig into Nolasco and Morrison together that could be a great way to improve the club without adding too much payroll.

 

They're not gonna trade Hanley, that's just silly. The Marlins, while cost conscious, have been rumored to be going after a big name this offseason. Not to mention that Hanley is the face of that franchise and was signed to a long term deal not long ago. He's had a rough season, yeah, but he's not a lost cause they're willing to give up on. He's one of the most talented hitters in the majors.

 

And to start, there's no way on Earth they trade Morrison and Nolasco for Colvin, Z, and cash. They may want to get rid of Morrison, but that is a swindling that even they should be able to recognize is a raw deal.

 

Trying to include Morrison isn't a bad idea, but it will take more than that I'm sure. With Brett Jackson coming up, it might make sense to toss Byrd at them and see if they bite and then they can move Coghlan back to 2B where his natural position is with Infante's contract coming to a close, perhaps?

[minnesotacubsfan]

The Cubs already have one of those types in Randy Wells. They should be looking to do better than that.

 

Randy Wells' FIP this year was 5.11 and his xFIP was 4.44. He's been worth .2 wins this season. His BABIP is actually .275 which means he's actually been luckier than normal.

 

Wells has been terrible this year, and even if he was halfway decent, he still doesn't quite compare to the talent level that Nolasco has. Nolasco is kind of the exact pitcher we should look to acquire to help rebuild the rotation with what we can all assume is the inevitable departure of Zambrano, if the Marlins are willing to move him for the right price, of course.

 

And if the Cubs, for whatever reason, decide to bring Pena back and not pursue Fielder or Pujols, that will save them plenty of money to also tackle Wilson's contract as well if they choose to pursue him.

 

A rotation of:

 

Wilson

Garza

Nolasco

Dempster

Cashner

 

Would be a pretty damn fine rotation

 

Wilson would be a huge land, I dont think it would happen

[BeerHere]

You would shop Dempster in the offseason? That doesn't seem...wise.

Doesn't seem wise? Because he's pretty good at a decent price? Those are the exact reasons why I would trade him - he has pretty good value and the return would be significant. If not I keep him. I honestly feel like this team is more than one or two pitchers away from being respectable.

[CubColtPacer]

You would shop Dempster in the offseason? That doesn't seem...wise.

Doesn't seem wise? Because he's pretty good at a decent price? Those are the exact reasons why I would trade him - he has pretty good value and the return would be significant. If not I keep him. I honestly feel like this team is more than one or two pitchers away from being respectable.

 

Dempster has a player option. He isn't going to exercise that option just for him to turn around and give permission for the Cubs to trade him especially from what we know how much Dempster wants to be in Chicago. And even if he did, Dempster's another guy whose peripherals were a lot better than his results this season and so it isn't exactly the greatest time to sell high anyway.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Randy Wells' FIP this year was 5.11 and his xFIP was 4.44. He's been worth .2 wins this season. His BABIP is actually .275 which means he's actually been luckier than normal.

 

Wells has been terrible this year, and even if he was halfway decent, he still doesn't quite compare to the talent level that Nolasco has. Nolasco is kind of the exact pitcher we should look to acquire to help rebuild the rotation with what we can all assume is the inevitable departure of Zambrano, if the Marlins are willing to move him for the right price, of course.

 

And if the Cubs, for whatever reason, decide to bring Pena back and not pursue Fielder or Pujols, that will save them plenty of money to also tackle Wilson's contract as well if they choose to pursue him.

 

A rotation of:

 

Wilson

Garza

Nolasco

Dempster

Cashner

 

Would be a pretty damn fine rotation

 

And the previous two Randy Wells seasons where he put up roughly 6.5 WAR? now insignificant? Why is Nolascos poor performance excused despite pitching in a huge park known to suppress HRs and boost K rates anyway?

 

To me overpaying for a midrotation guy right now is the exact thing the Cubs should not be doing. The Cubs right now have 3 guys who profile as 3-4 types with Wells, Dempster, and Z. I don't see the point of picking up another one. While that rotation would be pretty damn good, it's not dominant. I say look to add Wilson and prep for the 2013 and 2014 pitching FAs and trade market.

Edited September 26, 2011 by KingKongvs.Godzilla

[BeerHere]

Just looked up CJ stats....break the bank for the guy

 

33 starts, 23 quality starts

2.97 era

1.18 whip

72bb 206k in 221 ip

plus he's a lefty and 30 years old

 

He's in for a BIG payday this offseason and I sincerely hope the Cubs go after him aggressively.

[sneakypower]

hey everybody, the Marlins don't think they can afford the $6M Ricky Nolasco, so let's trade the $14M Ryan Dempster or $18M Carlos Zambrano for him!

[Cubs Fan Dan]

They're not gonna trade Hanley, that's just silly. The Marlins, while cost conscious, have been rumored to be going after a big name this offseason. Not to mention that Hanley is the face of that franchise and was signed to a long term deal not long ago. He's had a rough season, yeah, but he's not a lost cause they're willing to give up on. He's one of the most talented hitters in the majors.

 

And to start, there's no way on Earth they trade Morrison and Nolasco for Colvin, Z, and cash. They may want to get rid of Morrison, but that is a swindling that even they should be able to recognize is a raw deal.

 

Trying to include Morrison isn't a bad idea, but it will take more than that I'm sure. With Brett Jackson coming up, it might make sense to toss Byrd at them and see if they bite and then they can move Coghlan back to 2B where his natural position is with Infante's contract coming to a close, perhaps?

 

The Hanley thing was definitely a pipe dream i was not really believing its a possibility. I suggested Colvin, Z, cash AND prospects for Morrison. My point was mainly based on all the White Sox, Guillen and Marlins rumors that have been around and the relationship Ozzie has with Z, it may make them a logical place to try to move Z. Adding the fact that they may be looking to dump Nolasco's salary and are fed up with Morrison and with some cash and prospects the their could be a deal that helps both ends. Obviously if Guillen stays with the Sox the Marlins will not likely be interested in Z, in that case yes I think Byrd being slightly cheaper than Nolasco would be a fair match.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

Just looked up CJ stats....break the bank for the guy

 

33 starts, 23 quality starts

2.97 era

1.18 whip

72bb 206k in 221 ip

plus he's a lefty and 30 years old

 

He's in for a BIG payday this offseason and I sincerely hope the Cubs go after him aggressively.

 

what do you supposed the payday will be? A Jared Weave type deal? If so I am in I think he and Garza would be an excellent top of the rotation.

[jersey cubs fan]

hey everybody, the Marlins don't think they can afford the $6M Ricky Nolasco, so let's trade the $14M Ryan Dempster or $18M Carlos Zambrano for him!

 

He's making $9m next year and 11.5 in 2013, and I'm pretty sure people were thinking the Cubs would offer cash to offset. It's hardly outlandish, especially if they want to have some names around to help sell the new stadium.

[Clem Fandango]

Randy Wells' FIP this year was 5.11 and his xFIP was 4.44. He's been worth .2 wins this season. His BABIP is actually .275 which means he's actually been luckier than normal.

 

Wells has been terrible this year, and even if he was halfway decent, he still doesn't quite compare to the talent level that Nolasco has. Nolasco is kind of the exact pitcher we should look to acquire to help rebuild the rotation with what we can all assume is the inevitable departure of Zambrano, if the Marlins are willing to move him for the right price, of course.

 

And if the Cubs, for whatever reason, decide to bring Pena back and not pursue Fielder or Pujols, that will save them plenty of money to also tackle Wilson's contract as well if they choose to pursue him.

 

A rotation of:

 

Wilson

Garza

Nolasco

Dempster

Cashner

 

Would be a pretty damn fine rotation

 

And the previous two Randy Wells seasons where he put up roughly 6.5 WAR? now insignificant?

 

The Cubs right now have 3 guys who profile as 3-4 types with Wells, Dempster, and Z. I don't see the point of picking up another one. While that rotation would be pretty damn good, it's not dominant. I say look to add Wilson and prep for the 2013 and 2014 pitching FAs.

 

Randy Wells WAR the last 3 years: 6.6

Ricky Nolasco's WAR the last 3 years: 10.2

 

I'm not sure why you're so opposed to going after Nolasco. If he's fallen out of favor with the Marlins he's probably as good as any other pitcher on the trading block to acquire for a team that needs a jolt to its pitching staff

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Just looked up CJ stats....break the bank for the guy

 

33 starts, 23 quality starts

2.97 era

1.18 whip

72bb 206k in 221 ip

plus he's a lefty and 30 years old

 

He's in for a BIG payday this offseason and I sincerely hope the Cubs go after him aggressively.

 

what do you supposed the payday will be? A Jared Weave type deal? If so I am in I think he and Garza would be an excellent top of the rotation.

 

I'm thinking something higher but not crazy higher than the Zambrano deal.

[toonsterwu]

couple quick comments:

 

1. The first thing on Randy Wells is which Randy Wells. the Randy Wells late in the year looked remarkably similar to the guy from the previous two seasons. The best guess is that he was slow in rehabbing his way back. I feel like I'm fairly comfortable with Wells as a 4th/5th starter and unless they can do better on cheaper, he should be penciled into the rotation. Yes, his salary is going to go up, but the chances of finding a better guy than him at a cheaper price seems slim, provided he's more the guy in 2009/2010, and late in 2011.

 

2. I think Nolasco is better than Wells, but a lot depends on what it costs to land him. They want to free up some money, but they reorganized their front office this year in an effort to strengthen their system. If they demand a quality return AND we have to pay the contract, it becomes a debatable course of action. At some point, over-exerting on efforts this off-season becomes a dangerous course of action for the long range health of the club.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Randy Wells WAR the last 3 years: 6.6

Ricky Nolasco's WAR the last 3 years: 10.2

 

I'm not sure why you're so opposed to going after Nolasco. If he's fallen out of favor with the Marlins he's probably as good as any other pitcher on the trading block to acquire for a team that needs a jolt to its pitching staff

 

That's still roughly a 3.something WAR pitcher a year. What's so impressive about that considering Wells/Dempster/Z are all capable of that in a given year? They should be looking to upgrade the FRONT of the rotation, not the middle or back. He's not so much better than our other midrotation options that they should fall over themselves to land him.

 

If you want to buy low on a Marlin this offseason it should be Morrison.

[Clem Fandango]

couple quick comments:

 

1. The first thing on Randy Wells is which Randy Wells. the Randy Wells late in the year looked remarkably similar to the guy from the previous two seasons. The best guess is that he was slow in rehabbing his way back. I feel like I'm fairly comfortable with Wells as a 4th/5th starter and unless they can do better on cheaper, he should be penciled into the rotation. Yes, his salary is going to go up, but the chances of finding a better guy than him at a cheaper price seems slim, provided he's more the guy in 2009/2010, and late in 2011.

 

2. I think Nolasco is better than Wells, but a lot depends on what it costs to land him. They want to free up some money, but they reorganized their front office this year in an effort to strengthen their system. If they demand a quality return AND we have to pay the contract, it becomes a debatable course of action. At some point, over-exerting on efforts this off-season becomes a dangerous course of action for the long range health of the club.

 

Well put, sir.