Aramis Ramirez’s 2012 Option Does NOT Vest if He’s Traded

[Rob]

I don't think the answer is as obvious as you seem to. Wilson only plays once a week

 

 

Aramis Ramirez at his absolute healthiest managed 670 PA back in 2003.

 

CJ Wilson has faced 881 batters this year.

 

Starting pitchers have just as much of a chance to make an impact as position players do.

[questionmarkgrace]

How would it be a near-certainty? Wilson will be the most heavily pursued SP in the offseason, with teams like the Yankees and Angels after him. Fielder will likely get interest from the Orioles, Rangers, Nationals, and possibly Mariners. The Marlins are also looming for both, especially since they have a new stadium. Those are all teams with the resources to match any offer the Cubs put out there.

 

I'd say the odds of the Cubs missing both is a heck of a lot higher than slim. If the Cubs are operating under that assumption, they're playing with fire.

 

The Cubs have as much or more money (from the estimates I've seen) coming off the books than anybody else this offseason. If the Cubs are committed to bringing in at least one of those players, they should not be outbid for that player. Every one of them would have to be willing to take less money to go elsewhere and that's very unlikely. Or it would mean that teams threw out ridiculously high offers to every one of those players, which is also very unlikely.

 

Keep in mind as well that the Cubs can heavily backload one of the deals if they pursue both Fielder and Wilson. They could set up, say, Wilson's contract so that he's only getting $10 million next year on a (for instance) 5/100 deal. If they're simply picking up Aramis' option, they obviously can't backload it. That gives them a bit more flexibility going the Fielder/Wilson route.

 

Why is it unlikely that a guy like wilson is involved in a bidding war? in a year where there are a minimum of quality starters available and plenty of teams with a need that seems like a very optimistic picture of free agency. The simple dynamics of supply and demand suggest otherwise. Plus neither of these players will accept a backloaded contract because it is tantamount to a loss in money due to inflation. You would have to severely over pay for a tier 1 free agent like fielder or Wilson to accept any deferred money because other teams wont defer money. Plus the cubs are no longer seen as a team that has a good chance of winning as they were between 04 and 09. The cubs may have tons of money yes but also have more holes fill with that money. thus they are probably more limited as to what they can offer an individual player than say a team like the red sox or angels that are one starting pitcher away with less overall money coming off the books. The cubs must simultaneously pursue a franchise first baseman and try to resign aramis. I want all the things that you are saying to happen but I just dont think free agency will go like we want it to dew.

[Backtobanks]

Obviously Ramirez is trending downward at an alarming rate as proven by his .317/.380/.520/.900 line since the All Star break. His line for the season (.306/.360/.506/.866) is further proof that he needs to be replaced because he's headed for a complete breakdown. :-k

[dew1679666265]

Why is it unlikely that a guy like wilson is involved in a bidding war? in a year where there are a minimum of quality starters available and plenty of teams with a need that seems like a very optimistic picture of free agency. The simple dynamics of supply and demand suggest otherwise.

 

A bidding war is different from a ridiculous contract offer. What I was talking about there was a team like the Nationals stepping in and throwing out a (for instance) 7/175 deal or something silly like that. The chances are low that those kinds of crazy deals would be offered to both Fielder and Wilson - and Pujols if he's a FA. I certainly think a bidding war is possible and likely, but I believe the Cubs have the resources to win a bidding war.

 

Plus neither of these players will accept a backloaded contract because it is tantamount to a loss in money due to inflation. You would have to severely over pay for a tier 1 free agent like fielder or Wilson to accept any deferred money because other teams wont defer money.

 

Elite players take deferred money all the time. You might have to throw in perks like a NTC or other things to get them to take a greatly deferred contract, but the money's guaranteed one way or the other, so if a guy signs a $150 million contract, he's getting all of that money (save taxes) whether it's deferred or not.

 

And lots of teams backload contracts. It's not something exclusive to the Cubs.

 

Plus the cubs are no longer seen as a team that has a good chance of winning as they were between 04 and 09. The cubs may have tons of money yes but also have more holes fill with that money. thus they are probably more limited as to what they can offer an individual player than say a team like the red sox or angels that are one starting pitcher away with less overall money coming off the books. The cubs must simultaneously pursue a franchise first baseman and try to resign aramis. I want all the things that you are saying to happen but I just dont think free agency will go like we want it to dew.

 

It may not, but giving a Aramis at least a 1/$16 deal and at most a 3/$45 deal just isn't the answer. It's not going to make the team better, it's a move to simply tread water and try not to be any worse than this year while trying to add Prince Fielder. Aramis is not a long term answer and won't be a short term answer if he gets hurt again.

[dew1679666265]

Obviously Ramirez is trending downward at an alarming rate as proven by his .317/.380/.520/.900 line since the All Star break. His line for the season (.306/.360/.506/.866) is further proof that he needs to be replaced because he's headed for a complete breakdown. :-k

 

The best way to determine a decline is not to look at one year in a player's career - you need something to compare him to. Here's the comparison for Aramis:

 

2008: .898 OPS/149 games played

2009: .905 OPS/82 games played

2010: .745 OPS/124 games played

2011: .867 OPS/147 games played

 

In 2 of the past 4 seasons he's missed significant portions of the year - 38 games in 2010 and half the year in 2009. For the first time since 2008 he was very healthy this year, and managed an OPS 30 points below his most previous fully healthy year. Defensively, UZR/150 has had him getting consistently worse every year since 2008 to the point that his UZR/150 this year was -10.0. I realize UZR isn't gospel, but it's something to consider.

 

Aramis may come out and have another good year next year and be fully healthy, I'm not saying he's a definite to break down next year. However, there is a very real risk that he may repeat his 2010 season or even his 2009 season rather than 2011. That risk needs to be factored in when considering giving him big money and the fact that he's going to be older next season than he was any of the past 4 years (obviously), that risk only goes up.

[Backtobanks]

Obviously Ramirez is trending downward at an alarming rate as proven by his .317/.380/.520/.900 line since the All Star break. His line for the season (.306/.360/.506/.866) is further proof that he needs to be replaced because he's headed for a complete breakdown. :-k

 

The best way to determine a decline is not to look at one year in a player's career - you need something to compare him to. Here's the comparison for Aramis:

 

2008: .898 OPS/149 games played

2009: .905 OPS/82 games played

2010: .745 OPS/124 games played

2011: .867 OPS/147 games played

 

In 2 of the past 4 seasons he's missed significant portions of the year - 38 games in 2010 and half the year in 2009. For the first time since 2008 he was very healthy this year, and managed an OPS 30 points below his most previous fully healthy year. Defensively, UZR/150 has had him getting consistently worse every year since 2008 to the point that his UZR/150 this year was -10.0. I realize UZR isn't gospel, but it's something to consider.

 

Aramis may come out and have another good year next year and be fully healthy, I'm not saying he's a definite to break down next year. However, there is a very real risk that he may repeat his 2010 season or even his 2009 season rather than 2011. That risk needs to be factored in when considering giving him big money and the fact that he's going to be older next season than he was any of the past 4 years (obviously), that risk only goes up.

 

I still think re-signing Ramirez is the way to go assuming he will go for a 2-year contract with a reasonable hometown discount. Leaving a gaping hole at 3B while hopefully winning a bidding war on Fielder and/or Wilson is just too risky. Also, there might be a ridiculous contract offer (like you mentioned) on one of these two. A rebuilding year in 2012 after a lousy 2011 might not attract FAs in 2013. Also, a rebuilding year in 2012 might lower the revenue in the future.

[Little Slide Rooter]

So say we did resign Ramirez and Pena, and then CJ Wilson and kept Z. Maybe find some kind of upgrade over Byrd or Barney through trade, say Grady Sizemore or Shin Soo Choo. Would the rotation of Wilson, Garza, Dempster, Z, and Cashner be enough to make up for what would be a slight upgrade over this years offense? Maybe we do move Z and see what it would take to get someone like Brandon Morrow or another one of the Rays starters, who they will be reportedly be listening to offers for this winter. Perhaps even take out a flier on someone like Scott Kazmir or Ben Sheets and hope for the best?

 

Say it looked like

 

Jackson

Castro

Ramirez

Pena

Choo/Sizemore

Soriano

Soto

Barney/Flaherty/LeMahieu/Baker/DeWitt

P

[dew1679666265]

I still think re-signing Ramirez is the way to go assuming he will go for a 2-year contract with a reasonable hometown discount. Leaving a gaping hole at 3B while hopefully winning a bidding war on Fielder and/or Wilson is just too risky. Also, there might be a ridiculous contract offer (like you mentioned) on one of these two. A rebuilding year in 2012 after a lousy 2011 might not attract FAs in 2013. Also, a rebuilding year in 2012 might lower the revenue in the future.

 

If Aramis were a sure thing to be healthy and productive, I might agree with you. But he's not, so even though he'll be easy to bring back, there's considerable doubt whether he will even be worth his contract (or even healthy/productive) next year. So with considerable risk involved in both scenarios, I prefer the greater risk with significantly greater payoff potential to the lower risk, but much lower payoff potential.

 

Keep in mind as well, as TT has pointed out, if we go the Fielder/Wilson route and miss on one or both, it means we still have money available to pursue trade targets. If we re-sign Aramis immediately, it limits our options a bit if unexpected trade targets become available early in the FA process. The Fielder/Wilson route isn't both of those two or bust.

[Vanilla Ice]

So say we did resign Ramirez and Pena, and then CJ Wilson and kept Z. Maybe find some kind of upgrade over Byrd or Barney through trade, say Grady Sizemore or Shin Soo Choo. Would the rotation of Wilson, Garza, Dempster, Z, and Cashner be enough to make up for what would be a slight upgrade over this years offense? Maybe we do move Z and see what it would take to get someone like Brandon Morrow or another one of the Rays starters, who they will be reportedly be listening to offers for this winter. Perhaps even take out a flier on someone like Scott Kazmir or Ben Sheets and hope for the best?

 

Say it looked like

 

Jackson

Castro

Ramirez

Pena

Choo/Sizemore

Soriano

Soto

Barney/Flaherty/LeMahieu/Baker/DeWitt

P

Big difference between Choo and Sizemore

[SouthSideRyan]

Obviously Ramirez is trending downward at an alarming rate as proven by his .317/.380/.520/.900 line since the All Star break. His line for the season (.306/.360/.506/.866) is further proof that he needs to be replaced because he's headed for a complete breakdown. :-k

 

The best way to determine a decline is not to look at one year in a player's career - you need something to compare him to. Here's the comparison for Aramis:

 

2008: .898 OPS/149 games played

2009: .905 OPS/82 games played

2010: .745 OPS/124 games played

2011: .867 OPS/147 games played

 

In 2 of the past 4 seasons he's missed significant portions of the year - 38 games in 2010 and half the year in 2009. For the first time since 2008 he was very healthy this year, and managed an OPS 30 points below his most previous fully healthy year. Defensively, UZR/150 has had him getting consistently worse every year since 2008 to the point that his UZR/150 this year was -10.0. I realize UZR isn't gospel, but it's something to consider.

 

Aramis may come out and have another good year next year and be fully healthy, I'm not saying he's a definite to break down next year. However, there is a very real risk that he may repeat his 2010 season or even his 2009 season rather than 2011. That risk needs to be factored in when considering giving him big money and the fact that he's going to be older next season than he was any of the past 4 years (obviously), that risk only goes up.

 

B2B's point is pretty awful, but you can't just look at Aramis's raw OPS and call it a day for his offense.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Aramis Ramirez told Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald that he has "probably" played his last game as a Cub at Wrigley Field (Twitter links). As Ramirez points out, he can't negotiate a new deal with the Cubs at the moment since they don't currently have a permanent GM.

 

Picked this up on MLBTR. Probably just talk, but still.

[Little Slide Rooter]

So say we did resign Ramirez and Pena, and then CJ Wilson and kept Z. Maybe find some kind of upgrade over Byrd or Barney through trade, say Grady Sizemore or Shin Soo Choo. Would the rotation of Wilson, Garza, Dempster, Z, and Cashner be enough to make up for what would be a slight upgrade over this years offense? Maybe we do move Z and see what it would take to get someone like Brandon Morrow or another one of the Rays starters, who they will be reportedly be listening to offers for this winter. Perhaps even take out a flier on someone like Scott Kazmir or Ben Sheets and hope for the best?

 

Say it looked like

 

Jackson

Castro

Ramirez

Pena

Choo/Sizemore

Soriano

Soto

Barney/Flaherty/LeMahieu/Baker/DeWitt

P

Big difference between Choo and Sizemore

 

Yes, but if healthy, they're still both upgrades over Marlon Byrd. I know he's cheap and productive, but assuming we do keep our corner infielders, we'll need an offensive upgrade somewhere, and the outfields really the only place, considering that I don't see many 2B upgrades out there, and I'd just as soon cycle through our internal options.

[dew1679666265]

B2B's point is pretty awful, but you can't just look at Aramis's raw OPS and call it a day for his offense.

 

It was just the easiest metric to show quickly. His WAR in 2010 was .3, his wRC+ was 91, his wOBA was .321, his OBP was .294, his K% was 17.8 (highest since his rookie year), and his BB% has been 6.7 and 6.8 the past two years - his lowest rates since 2003. His BABIP was just .245, but his LD% was a career low 15.8%. I understand he was hurt most of the year, but that's the entire point - he's going to be 34 years old next year and has had injury issues throughout his career.

 

Banking on him playing 147 games without any type of injury is a risky proposition at this point after 2 of his past 3 years have been injury-ridden and he's historically been injury prone.

[Clem Fandango]

Aramis Ramirez told Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald that he has "probably" played his last game as a Cub at Wrigley Field (Twitter links). As Ramirez points out, he can't negotiate a new deal with the Cubs at the moment since they don't currently have a permanent GM.

 

Picked this up on MLBTR. Probably just talk, but still.

 

 

http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/6998951/aramis-ramirez-believes-done-chicago-cub

 

"Yeah, there is a good chance. I'm a free agent," said Ramirez, whose Cubs play their final home game on Wednesday. "I don't know what's happening, but it looks like I'm going to hit the market."

 

"My agent is in town now, but we haven't talked to those guys so I think we're ready to move on," Ramirez said.

 

Ramirez has insisted from the beginning of the season that he would like to stay with the Cubs.

 

"That's what I've said all along," Ramirez said. "But it doesn't look that way right now."

[Backtobanks]

Aramis Ramirez told Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald that he has "probably" played his last game as a Cub at Wrigley Field (Twitter links). As Ramirez points out, he can't negotiate a new deal with the Cubs at the moment since they don't currently have a permanent GM.

 

Picked this up on MLBTR. Probably just talk, but still.

 

 

http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/6998951/aramis-ramirez-believes-done-chicago-cub

 

"Yeah, there is a good chance. I'm a free agent," said Ramirez, whose Cubs play their final home game on Wednesday. "I don't know what's happening, but it looks like I'm going to hit the market."

 

"My agent is in town now, but we haven't talked to those guys so I think we're ready to move on," Ramirez said.

 

Ramirez has insisted from the beginning of the season that he would like to stay with the Cubs.

 

"That's what I've said all along," Ramirez said. "But it doesn't look that way right now."

 

What did you expect him to say after his agent reminded him that everything you say could make/cost you millions of dollars.

[Backtobanks]

I still think re-signing Ramirez is the way to go assuming he will go for a 2-year contract with a reasonable hometown discount. Leaving a gaping hole at 3B while hopefully winning a bidding war on Fielder and/or Wilson is just too risky. Also, there might be a ridiculous contract offer (like you mentioned) on one of these two. A rebuilding year in 2012 after a lousy 2011 might not attract FAs in 2013. Also, a rebuilding year in 2012 might lower the revenue in the future.

 

If Aramis were a sure thing to be healthy and productive, I might agree with you. But he's not, so even though he'll be easy to bring back, there's considerable doubt whether he will even be worth his contract (or even healthy/productive) next year. So with considerable risk involved in both scenarios, I prefer the greater risk with significantly greater payoff potential to the lower risk, but much lower payoff potential.

 

Keep in mind as well, as TT has pointed out, if we go the Fielder/Wilson route and miss on one or both, it means we still have money available to pursue trade targets. If we re-sign Aramis immediately, it limits our options a bit if unexpected trade targets become available early in the FA process. The Fielder/Wilson route isn't both of those two or bust.

 

I've been saying all along that I think we should look at the trade market to upgrade for younger players that are getting too expensive for their teams. Others have made a point of stating that we should go all in for Fielder/Wilson because it only involves money and not prospects. As for Aramis' ability to stay healthy and productive, I agree that there is no guarantee about his health, but his production hasn't declined at all when he's healthy. If there was a decent option ready to take over 3B, I might agree with you.

[dew1679666265]

I've been saying all along that I think we should look at the trade market to upgrade for younger players that are getting too expensive for their teams. Others have made a point of stating that we should go all in for Fielder/Wilson because it only involves money and not prospects.

 

I'd pursue Fielder and Wilson first because they only cost us money, however, it's not the end of the world if we miss out on one of them. At that point, turn to the trade market and see what you can get.

 

As for Aramis' ability to stay healthy and productive, I agree that there is no guarantee about his health, but his production hasn't declined at all when he's healthy. If there was a decent option ready to take over 3B, I might agree with you.

 

His past two fully healthy seasons were 2008 and 2011 - his OPS dropped 30 points from the former to the latter and UZR/150 dropped considerably as well. However, he is still a productive player right now when healthy. But when a guy has been hurt for significant portions of 2 of the past 3 years and has a long history of injury issues (minor primarily, but still injuries) previously, expecting him to remain healthy for his age 34 and 35 seasons is a little like putting a wolf in with a sheep and expecting the wolf not to eat the sheep. It could happen, but it's not something I'd put money on.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Since this seems to be the general offseason target thread for now, I'll just throw this out there:

 

Soriano+as much of the money owed to him as necessary, Soto, Marshall(hopefully between Shark, Carpenter, Dolis, and Beliveau we can fill his void), Barney, and Colvin for James Shields and BJ Upton. Laugh away if you will.

[BeerHere]

If the Cubs pick up the option and Ramirez declines and becomes a free agent, do the Cubs get a compensation pick in the 2012 draft?

[Cubs Fan Dan]

Ramirez is staying..... He is too lazy to move.

 

:hello:

 

In all seriousness I think he will be back, if any of the mention GM's come in I believe they will be too smart to leave such a gaping hole in the offense. I also believe the Cubs will bring Pena back(I want Fielder/Pujols as much as anyone.) My view is the Cubs will target 2 starters via free agency (Wilson and a Vasquez type guy) and will move prospects to right field production. A few names I think the Cubs should keep an eye on are Ethier, Swisher, Kubel (obviously a LF option if Sori is dumped). If they are determined to trade Z for a bad contract Bay is a guy that might be an option. I think the Cubs should go after Wandy via trade if he is available.

 

Hope you are back Rammy.

[dew1679666265]

In all seriousness I think he will be back, if any of the mention GM's come in I believe they will be too smart to leave such a gaping hole in the offense.

 

There's a very real chance it wouldn't be a gaping hole, though. With Baker posting a .900 or so OPS vs lefties, Flaherty/LeMaheieu would have to be really bad to not be able to surpass the .701 OPS that is the median team OPS at third. Third base offense is, and has been, so bad that you don't need a juggernaut to get better than average production there. On the other hand, it's not very often that you find two elite talents in their primes sitting on the free agent market and you potentially have the cash for both.

[Irrelevant Dude]

If the Cubs pick up the option and Ramirez declines and becomes a free agent, do the Cubs get a compensation pick in the 2012 draft?

Unless I'm missing something, I don't believe Ramirez even has the right to decline. That is what makes it a "team" option. I think his comments are just assuming that the team won't pick his option up and, since there is no GM in place, he knows that it is unlikely that any negotiations will take place prior to the free agency filing date.

[Little Slide Rooter]

If the Cubs pick up the option and Ramirez declines and becomes a free agent, do the Cubs get a compensation pick in the 2012 draft?

Unless I'm missing something, I don't believe Ramirez even has the right to decline. That is what makes it a "team" option. I think his comments are just assuming that the team won't pick his option up and, since there is no GM in place, he knows that it is unlikely that any negotiations will take place prior to the free agency filing date.

 

Its a team option, but Aramis has the right to decline it, thus it's basically a mutual option.

[Sammy Sofa]

Personally, I think this is the key quote from Ramirez so far:

 

"We were the worst team in 2006, and in 2007 we went to the playoffs," he said. "So you can get better if you want to. But you have to go out and get some quality players. It's my priority to stay here, but they have to show me they want to be better. "

 

The guy's already given the Cubs a hometown discount (when he could have gotten the biggest contract of his career), so I think he does honestly want to stay here, so this likely means the ball is in the Ricketts' court. This is all going to come down to them being willing to make the necessary money available. If they go hard after guys like Wilson and Pujols/Fielder then I think they'll be able to get Aramis back at a reasonable price.

[mookie]

Personally, I think this is the key quote from Ramirez so far:

 

"We were the worst team in 2006, and in 2007 we went to the playoffs," he said. "So you can get better if you want to. But you have to go out and get some quality players. It's my priority to stay here, but they have to show me they want to be better. "

 

The guy's already given the Cubs a hometown discount (when he could have gotten the biggest contract of his career), so I think he does honestly want to stay here, so this likely means the ball is in the Ricketts' court. This is all going to come down to them being willing to make the necessary money available. If they go hard after guys like Wilson and Pujols/Fielder then I think they'll be able to get Aramis back at a reasonable price.

 

Sounds like a win-win to me. I would love for him to sign a two year extension, but reality favors a three year deal. Netting Pujols, Wilson, and Aramis would be a real nice off season. I think the bookends are very possible, but Wilson is going to be tough. Lots and lots of teams are going to be going after him very hard.