Mike Trout called up

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Let's just say I'm expecting a lot from Castro

 

+1

 

If he wasn't a Cub he'd be a "why can't Hendry and the Cubs organization develop this kind of player" guy. Instead he is, and the Cubs are losing, so the grass is greener somewhere else.

 

Castro's going to be an elite SS at least, and I think he can be an elite MLB player if both he and the Cubs put in work.

[sneakypower]

think about BJ Upton - since he was put in CF, he's averaged (a full season pace of) 20 HR, 40+ SB, .350 OBP, .425 SLG and GG-caliber defense, and when he comes up in trade rumors people talk about what a disappointment he is

 

truth be told, the most likely career path for Trout right now might be something pretty similar to Upton's, which would still be a wild success (4-win seasons his first 5 years), but the assumption is because he hasn't sputtered yet anywhere he's a lock for greatness

[Productive Outs]

wieters is at least a better comparison, because he was regarded as one of the best prospects in baseball and hasn't hit like expected. brandon wood/dallas macpherson comps are just kind of silly because it wasn't hard to see how they might bust, and they were never among the top 2-3 prospects in the game.

 

i'm nitpicking here, but Brandon Wood was ranked #3 by BA following the 2005 season.

 

to me, for Castro to have a better career than Trout (this is assuming Trout doesn't absolutely suck), he needs to at least double his BB% (he is trending in the opposite direction here) and hit 15ish HRs. if Castro does those things and improves his defense, i think Castro will end up the better player given his position scarcity.

 

if we're projecting both of them going forward based on their statistics so far, though, i don't see how one can come to the conclusion that Castro is better than Trout.

[Guest]

It doesn't take a whole lot of gymnastics(Texas League plus not-dominant performance at A+) to put Trout's performance in a context that raises doubts about his MLB readiness. On the other hand, Castro's well on his way to a near 4 WAR season in MLB before his 22nd birthday. I mean, Castro's at 900 PA's now, the level of certainty that he'll hit is a major, major consideration.

[TruffleShuffle]

wieters is at least a better comparison, because he was regarded as one of the best prospects in baseball and hasn't hit like expected. brandon wood/dallas macpherson comps are just kind of silly because it wasn't hard to see how they might bust, and they were never among the top 2-3 prospects in the game.

 

i'm nitpicking here, but Brandon Wood was ranked #3 by BA following the 2005 season.

 

really??? jeez i was never that high on him.

[TruffleShuffle]

It doesn't take a whole lot of gymnastics(Texas League plus not-dominant performance at A+) to put Trout's performance in a context that raises doubts about his MLB readiness.

 

i don't understand the thing about texas league... is it because it's AA or it's a hitter's league? even if you're saying it's a hitter's league, he's still 5th in obp and 7th in ops while playing against guys who are mostly 5 years older than him. if you're doubting his performance then you can punch a hole in pretty much any prospect.

[Guest]

The Texas league is a slugger's league, every year there's guys who kill the ball and then fall off at higher levels. Considering that Trout's HR rate nearly doubled this year, I think it's a reasonable question to how much the league inflated Trout's overall numbers, especially given his "struggles" in High-A last year. Not to the point that he's not a great prospect, but maybe to the point that he's not ready to set fire to MLB at 19.

[imb]

you just described Cesar Cedeno

 

More like 2 years of Cesar Cedeno's career. If he did that for 8 years, it would be hard to call it a disappointment.

[TruffleShuffle]

you just described Cesar Cedeno

 

More like 2 years of Cesar Cedeno's career. If he did that for 8 years, it would be hard to call it a disappointment.

 

cedeno was top 7 in WAR among NL players for 5 consecutive years, to suggest that he was a bust or an average player would be a mistake. if he hadn't suffered so many injuries - playing half of one's games on the rock-hard Astrodome surface can't be good for a guy who runs a lot - he probably would've been as great long-term as everyone expected him to be. one can also hope that mike trout doesn't accidentally shoot his girlfriend in the head.

[imb]

you just described Cesar Cedeno

 

More like 2 years of Cesar Cedeno's career. If he did that for 8 years, it would be hard to call it a disappointment.

 

cedeno was top 7 in WAR among NL players for 5 consecutive years, to suggest that he was a bust or an average player would be a mistake. if he hadn't suffered so many injuries - playing half of one's games on the rock-hard Astrodome surface can't be good for a guy who runs a lot - he probably would've been as great long-term as everyone expected him to be. one can also hope that mike trout doesn't accidentally shoot his girlfriend in the head.

 

Yeah, I was talking more about the statistical milestones that I (stupidly) deleted from the string of quotes. Cesar Cedeno hit over .300 three times, hit 20 home runs three times, and had a slugging percentage over .500 twice. Obviously a different era, but the expectations for trout, assuming he stays injury-free, are higher than that.

 

Of course, Andruw Jones looked like he was destined to be the best player on earth, too. He's got over 400 home runs and a mantle of gold gloves, etc, but i'd say he was a disappointment.

[Tryptamine]

you just described Cesar Cedeno

 

More like 2 years of Cesar Cedeno's career. If he did that for 8 years, it would be hard to call it a disappointment.

 

cedeno was top 7 in WAR among NL players for 5 consecutive years, to suggest that he was a bust or an average player would be a mistake. if he hadn't suffered so many injuries - playing half of one's games on the rock-hard Astrodome surface can't be good for a guy who runs a lot - he probably would've been as great long-term as everyone expected him to be. one can also hope that mike trout doesn't accidentally shoot his girlfriend in the head.

 

Yeah, I was talking more about the statistical milestones that I (stupidly) deleted from the string of quotes. Cesar Cedeno hit over .300 three times, hit 20 home runs three times, and had a slugging percentage over .500 twice. Obviously a different era, but the expectations for trout, assuming he stays injury-free, are higher than that.

 

Of course, Andruw Jones looked like he was destined to be the best player on earth, too. He's got over 400 home runs and a mantle of gold gloves, etc, but i'd say he was a disappointment.

 

If a player being a possible HoFer is disappointing then projections were unrealistic and frankly absurd.

[imb]

if he had done something as simple as work out in the offseason, he would be a sure-fire hall of famer. It's not like it was his inability to make contact that held him back, he was just fat as hell.

[TruffleShuffle]

if he had done something as simple as work out in the offseason, he would be a sure-fire hall of famer. It's not like it was his inability to make contact that held him back, he was just fat as hell.

 

it's true. he was certainly on the HoF path, with great power and top-notch defense, and then he just got fat and has been worth less than 1 win in his past 5 seasons. if he'd just continued as a 4 to 8 win player for another few years it probably would've been a no-brainer selection... instead he's got just about no chance because he was borderline useless after he hit 30.

[Formerly Snayke]

As impresive as his season is, his MLE is still something like .260/.320/.400. It doesn't factor in that he's 19, but it shouldn't be surprising if he winds up in that area.

[sneakypower]

you just described Cesar Cedeno

 

More like 2 years of Cesar Cedeno's career. If he did that for 8 years, it would be hard to call it a disappointment.

he had a 9 year peak where he averaged 29 2B, 5 3B, 16 HR, 49 SB and a .293/.362/.467 line (but just 131 games) before injuries took hold

[imb]

you just described Cesar Cedeno

 

More like 2 years of Cesar Cedeno's career. If he did that for 8 years, it would be hard to call it a disappointment.

he had a 9 year peak where he averaged 29 2B, 5 3B, 16 HR, 49 SB and a .293/.362/.467 line (but just 131 games) before injuries took hold

 

yeah, but i was responding to this quote: "Most are thinking that he'll hit something like .300+avg, .380+obp, 20-25 HR, 40+SB and excellent defense in CF during his prime."

 

whether or not he manages to do that is obviously a wait-and-see, but I think if he pulled it off, it would top an .830 OPS.

[sneakypower]

he likely won't; 20-25 HR is definitely on the high end of what he's probably capable of, power-wise

 

with 15 HR, 175 ISO is about the max a hitter can reasonably reach; then even a .300/.380 line would max him out at .850 OPS

[Productive Outs]

he likely won't; 20-25 HR is definitely on the high end of what he's probably capable of, power-wise

 

with 15 HR, 175 ISO is about the max a hitter can reasonably reach; then even a .300/.380 line would max him out at .850 OPS

 

how does his defense compare to Andruw Jones' perceived defensive ability coming into the league?

[Tracer Bullet]

just a pathetic bunt attempt in the 9th of a 1-run game. Time to send him back down to AAA.

[NCCubFan]

Trout has been sent back down to AA.

[TruffleShuffle]

Trout has been sent back down to AA.

 

BUST

[Tracer Bullet]

Sneakypower thinks trout might be a good reclamation project.