2012 Draft Discussion

[Guest]

If Shaffer's ceiling is comparable to Vitters' at this point, Shaffer wouldn't be considered a first rounder.

 

Well relative to this mediocrity heap of a draft he might be, but yes there has been talk that he might be overrated on the internet. I've read things like "well a solid average 3B is a good player" in connection with Shaffer.

 

I think he's a likeable talent who falls firmly into the "not at 6" category.

 

No matter the quality of this draft, if Vitters was eligible, I can't imagine he'd be a top 5 round pick.

 

Shaffer projects to hit for more power than Vitters does. Shaffer has a far better idea what to do at the plate with far better discipline (50/44 BB/K this year). He has similar questions about what position he'll play. Shaffer would have been a first rounder last year.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

To me, Selman is risky because of his lack of results. Yes, he's put it together in the last month or so. Personally, I like seeing more of a resume than that from a college junior. But that's just me. And I clearly question myself on that thinking, because if I think he may be gone before we pick in the 40's, I acknowledge others may see things differently., especially since he's still not even cracking BA's top 100 yet. I figure he's the 3rd college lefty off the board, behind Heaney and Wood.

 

I just don't get where this unique risk is...worked mostly in relief before this year...struck out 46 in 41 innings in Summer ball last year (more K's than IP this year, fastball has hit 94 this year as well)...only worked 6 innings as a freshman but struck out 8...Sounds like they've just had him working on his body in that Vanderbilt pitching program to me giving him less starts in college than the other two. Vanderbilt is a far more loaded program than the other two as far as pitching has gone as well, so that's part of the explanation.

 

I'm hoping he or Wood are around at 43, but this draft's suckage probably means neither makes it.

[davell]

To me, Selman is risky because of his lack of results. Yes, he's put it together in the last month or so. Personally, I like seeing more of a resume than that from a college junior. But that's just me. And I clearly question myself on that thinking, because if I think he may be gone before we pick in the 40's, I acknowledge others may see things differently., especially since he's still not even cracking BA's top 100 yet. I figure he's the 3rd college lefty off the board, behind Heaney and Wood.

 

I just don't get where this unique risk is...worked mostly in relief before this year...struck out 46 in 41 innings in Summer ball last year (more K's than IP this year, fastball has hit 94 this year as well)...only worked 6 innings as a freshman but struck out 8...Sounds like they've just had him working on his body in that Vanderbilt pitching program to me giving him less starts in college than the other two. Vanderbilt is a far more loaded program than the other two as far as pitching has gone as well, so that's part of the explanation.

 

I'm hoping he or Wood are around at 43, but this draft's suckage probably means neither makes it.

 

 

Like I said, I'm cautious, because of the lack of resume. And I fully acknowledge how loaded Vandy is normally too, so I'm holding it against him, when there's even a reason as to why he's not pitched a ton. He did start off slowly and his command was way off, but he's righted the ship there obviously. I do tend to agree that neither him or Wood is there for us to choose from anyway, but this draft is a total crapshoot. I think this year, much more than most, is going to see lots of picks that don't particularly match up. Because there's just not a huge separation in talent, maybe even between 15 and 100 or so this year.

 

Personally, I hope we get a bigtime SP at 6(although I admit I'm really thinking we take Correa or Almora at this moment), then take HS pitching and 2 bats by the time we're thru the 3rd round. I think this draft IS set up for the HS pitching part at least, especially if we take them in the supplemental. Bats will be scarce, I hope we find a way to get one in the 2nd or 3rd and again, I think I'm preferring High School, to College again here. Just not many College players interest me this year.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

If Shaffer's ceiling is comparable to Vitters' at this point, Shaffer wouldn't be considered a first rounder.

 

Well relative to this mediocrity heap of a draft he might be, but yes there has been talk that he might be overrated on the internet. I've read things like "well a solid average 3B is a good player" in connection with Shaffer.

 

I think he's a likeable talent who falls firmly into the "not at 6" category.

 

No matter the quality of this draft, if Vitters was eligible, I can't imagine he'd be a top 5 round pick.

 

Shaffer projects to hit for more power than Vitters does. Shaffer has a far better idea what to do at the plate with far better discipline (50/44 BB/K this year). He has similar questions about what position he'll play. Shaffer would have been a first rounder last year.

 

More mature and better plate discipline are two big aids. Vitters' as his power stands now, sure. Not sure about him last year, but not crazy to think he could edge his way into the last few picks there where Gilmartin, Panik, and Martin went.

 

Possibly I overrate Vitters' ceiling, but I'm basically thinking either guy could be a 3B who hits in the .270s with maybe 20 HR power and doubles while playing average D there.

[iowahawkeyes89]

If Shaffer's ceiling is comparable to Vitters' at this point, Shaffer wouldn't be considered a first rounder.

 

Well relative to this mediocrity heap of a draft he might be, but yes there has been talk that he might be overrated on the internet. I've read things like "well a solid average 3B is a good player" in connection with Shaffer.

 

I think he's a likeable talent who falls firmly into the "not at 6" category.

 

No matter the quality of this draft, if Vitters was eligible, I can't imagine he'd be a top 5 round pick.

 

Shaffer projects to hit for more power than Vitters does. Shaffer has a far better idea what to do at the plate with far better discipline (50/44 BB/K this year). He has similar questions about what position he'll play. Shaffer would have been a first rounder last year.

 

More mature and better plate discipline are two big aids. Vitters' as his power stands now, sure. Not sure about him last year, but not crazy to think he could edge his way into the last few picks there where Gilmartin, Panik, and Martin went.

 

Possibly I overrate Vitters' ceiling, but I'm basically thinking either guy could be a 3B who hits in the .270s with maybe 20 HR power and doubles while playing average D there.

 

But the difference is Shaffer gets on base at a higher percentage, and projects 30+ HR power.

 

Other than needing a position change, I really don't understand the Vitters comparison at all. I think you're vastly over rating Vitters.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

But the difference is Shaffer gets on base at a higher percentage, and projects 30+ HR power.

 

Other than needing a position change, I really don't understand the Vitters comparison at all. I think you're vastly over rating Vitters.

 

Hm, first I've heard of 30+ HR potential for Shaffer, but I can buy me overrating the crap out of Vitters.

 

Looking for some thoughts on some players here...

 

Barrett Barnes CF/OF Texas Tech

Tyler Naquin RF/OF A&M

Sam Stafford LHP Texas

Drew Verhagen RHP Vanderbilt - Big (6'6" 225) pen arm from Vanderbilt

Buck Farmer LHP Georgia Tech

Jameis Winston OF Alabama HS

DJ Baxendale RHP Arkansas

 

Any DJ LeMahieu clones out there? There's a kid from Kansas that I like, but think he's in next year's draft not this year.

[davell]

Our slot values, pick by pick for the top 10 rounds are as follows: 6-3.250000, 43-1196000, 56-911700, 67-769600, 101-471900, 134-343200, 164-257000, 194-192500, 224-148600, 254-138600, 284-129600, 314-125000. Looking over these numbers, it's going to be very interesting to see what we do. The total is 7933900. Basically leaves us a tad under 400k we can spend over our total, with close to a 300k monetary fine to do so. Looking over the round by round slots, I hope we target a college senior at 101 and 134. Chris Rusin types, that sign for 50k or so. It'd give us over 700k, plus the penalty money to over slot elsewhere. Maybe not even inside the top 10 rounds either. I have a feeling anyone considered a tough sign falls outside that area, because you can't take a chance early and lose that slots value. Afterwards though, I'd like to see us load up on the tough signs and figure we'll wind up with one or two. Either one guy at a tad over a mill or a pair for half that.

[davell]

Barnes is a toolbox type. He'd be a solid get in the supplemental area. Naquin may be the best pure hitter in the draft. I doubt he's available to us. Farmer throws hard, has lots of projection, not a lot of results if I remember right. Great guy to get in rounds 3 to 5, I guess. Stafford is a senior and he's hurt. To me, he's a guy I'd love to get, because he has zero leverage and top 200ish talent. Winston is a football guy if I remember, probably a really tough sign. Edited May 17, 2012 by davell

[RammyFanny]

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2012/05/2012-draft-coverage-weekly-pref-list.html

[Guest]

Jay (Manchester, IA): Any chance that the Brewers would snag Giolito with one of their first round picks? How far does he have to drop before it's not feasible to get him signed?

 

Jim Callis: Giolito, as I addressed in Monday's Ask BA, is still too much of a wild card to predict where he'll go. Teams just don't know enough about his health or whether he'll drop his asking price right now. Before he got hurt, he might have been the first high school righthander to go No. 1 overall, and he was looking at a bonus of $5 million or more. How feasible it is to get him signed depends on the asking price, and teams don't think it will be coming down much, as well as whether the club that takes him has multiple early picks and more money to play with. That's all a long way of saying "I have no idea what will happen with Giolito."

 

@Jaypers413 (IL): About how close to June 4th will teams get the definitive word on Giolito's present health and be able to see him work out?

 

Jim Callis: No one seems to know that yet. Word is they'll get medical reports and there's hope he will be able to throw a bullpen, but no definitie timetable right now.

 

Taylor (Houston): Jim - call me crazy, but what would you think about popping Giolito 1-1, and if you don't sign him, take your two very high picks next year in what is hopefully a better draft class (assuming you still get compensation for not signing your first rounder - I don't know if that rule changed). He's the best prospect in the draft, and would probably be the consensus #1 guy had it not been for the injury.

 

Jim Callis: I don't think a healthy Giolito is clearly the best prospect in the draft. He's in the top group, I'll give you that. But I think taking him No. 1 overall would be crazy. You already have health questions about him, and the track record of guys who throw 100 mph in high school having long, healthy careers is poor. This isn't a great draft, but I'd be thrilled to take Byron Buxton with the No. 1 overall pick. I wouldn't gamble that high on Giolito. He fits best with a team that has extra picks and not as many holes as the Astros.

 

Jeff (NoCal): Cubs at #6.....shouldn't the cubs focus on the college pitching available to them due to the lack of arms in their system or is Theo and crew going to hone in on Almora or Correa? Who do you like better of the two players?

 

Jim Callis: You have to take the best available talent. I love Texas A&M's Michael Wacha as much as the next guy, but if the top three college arms are gone (Appel, Gausman, Zimmer), you can't just pop Wacha at No. 6 because you need arms. I'm not even sure the Cubs would take all three of Appel, Gausman and Zimmer at No. 6.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Barnes is a toolbox type. He'd be a solid get in the supplemental area. Naquin may be the best pure hitter in the draft. I doubt he's available to us. Farmer throws hard, has lots of projection, not a lot of results if I remember right. Great guy to get in rounds 3 to 5, I guess. Staffordshire is a senior and he's hurt. To me, he's a guy I'd love to get, because he has zero leverage and top 200ish talent. Winston is a football guy if I remember, probably a really tough sign.

 

TBH Barnes IIRC impressed the least of these guys physically, but he's been a really good performer in college. He's a fringe defender as a CF, and looks like a corner guy (probably LF?).

[iowahawkeyes89]

But the difference is Shaffer gets on base at a higher percentage, and projects 30+ HR power.

 

Other than needing a position change, I really don't understand the Vitters comparison at all. I think you're vastly over rating Vitters.

 

Hm, first I've heard of 30+ HR potential for Shaffer, but I can buy me overrating the crap out of Vitters.

 

Looking for some thoughts on some players here...

 

Barrett Barnes CF/OF Texas Tech

Tyler Naquin RF/OF A&M

Sam Stafford LHP Texas

Drew Verhagen RHP Vanderbilt - Big (6'6" 225) pen arm from Vanderbilt

Buck Farmer LHP Georgia Tech

Jameis Winston OF Alabama HS

DJ Baxendale RHP Arkansas

 

Any DJ LeMahieu clones out there? There's a kid from Kansas that I like, but think he's in next year's draft not this year.

 

 

This from Scoutingbaseball.com ...

 

"Few can challenge Shaffer's pure power in this draft class. And, it's not just raw power. Shaffer shows plus power in game action in just about every setting he's played in. Wood bats have proven to be no challenge for him, as he showed tremendous carry to the middle of the field on the Cape last summer. He profiles as a potential 30 home run bat at the next level"

 

The other intriguing thing about Shaffer is that he's 6'3 200...so he could still add 5-10 pounds of muscle.

[Guest]

Barnes is a toolbox type. He'd be a solid get in the supplemental area. Naquin may be the best pure hitter in the draft. I doubt he's available to us. Farmer throws hard, has lots of projection, not a lot of results if I remember right. Great guy to get in rounds 3 to 5, I guess. Stafford is a senior and he's hurt. To me, he's a guy I'd love to get, because he has zero leverage and top 200ish talent. Winston is a football guy if I remember, probably a really tough sign.

 

Winston is supposed to be a very tough sign because he wants to play baseball and football at Florida State.

[toonsterwu]

I'll be pretty surprised, if with the new rules, Jameis Winston ends up playing baseball professionally if he's not picked in say, the top 2 rounds. He's the heir apparent at Florida State, arguably the top QB talent from the prep ranks this past year, a perfect fit for Jimbo Fisher's offense who offers a lot of similarities to EJ Manuel, the current starting QB who only has 1 year left. If it's in the first two rounds, then I could perhaps see something if a team can structure enough money for him. His football potential is excellent, but obviously, a lot of work there.

[davell]

Mayo just released the first 10 picks in his mock and has us with Almora, who is growing on me quite a bit, the more we find out about him.

[Guest]

Mayo just released the first 10 picks in his mock and has us with Almora, who is growing on me quite a bit, the more we find out about him.

 

No Giolito in his top 10 either: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120516&content_id=31456550&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb&tcid=tw_article_31456550

 

1. Houston: Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford

2. Minnesota: Byron Buxton, OF, Appling County HS (Baxley, GA)

3. Seattle: Mike Zunino, C, Florida

4. Baltimore: Kevin Gausman, RHP, Louisiana State

5. Kansas City: Kyle Zimmer, RHP, San Francisco

6. Cubs: Albert Almora, OF, Mater Academy (Hialeah Gardens, FL)

7. San Diego: Carlos Correa, SS, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy (Gurabo, PR)

8. Pittsburgh: Deven Marrero, SS, Arizona State

9. Miami: Courtney Hawkins, OF, Carroll HS (Corpus Christi, TX)

10. Colorado: Max Fried, LHP, Harvard-Westlake HS (Los Angeles, CA)

[illiniguy]

I've been hearing about Almora for years because of Team USA. Have to remind myself he's still really young.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Here's the caption for that:

 

 

6. Chicago Cubs: Albert Almora, OF, Mater Academy (Fla.)

With Theo Epstein and company now running the show, it will be interesting to see in what direction the Cubs go. There's been talk about high-end high school hitters. Assuming Buxton is gone, that leaves Almora, a heady yet toolsy outfielder from the Miami area, or Carlos Correa, a high school shortstop from Puerto Rico.

 

He gets called heady often. Ithink I bodes well.

 

I'm a little weird so in my head I've likened his guy to a CF version of Derek Jeter, who went 6th in his draft. Fairly simple one....Up the middle HS prospects who could stick, have very strong pedigrees, show off awesome hit tools, above average everything else, and are known for their smart and aggressive play. Pay little attention to it, but basically I think Almora is a potential stud.

 

Matt G. from minorleagueball and BB compared him to Moises Alou and expressed that he might not stick in CF long term. I disagree on the CF part of that.

[Guest]

...Matt G. from minorleagueball and BB compared him to Moises Alou...

Now I really don't want Almora.

[Vinestal]

...Matt G. from minorleagueball and BB compared him to Moises Alou...

Now I really don't want Almora.

You fear he pees on his hands?

[Guest]

Theo is at Duke today, taking in Marcus Stroman.

[RammyFanny]

For some reason I keep picturing DeJesus + .20 to .30 points of batting average when I read Almora's scouting reports. Which is a pretty damn good player. He's got to sell me on the power though, every video i've seen of him (which isn't many) shows at bats where the result ends up being a typical ground ball.

[Guest]

I'm sure a Google search will find the stream if you want to see Lance McCullers pitch live:

 

@BAHighSchool: Love the internet. Watching Tampa Jesuit vs. American Heritage online. Brandon Lopez reached, but McCullers has 2 out with man on 2nd.

[davell]

David Rawnsley of PG, just made a great argument as to why a team should take Almora: Low risk, high upside. Perfect for a team needing to rebuild without a large base already around.

[El Duderino]

Is it possible for any high school player to be low-risk?