Mets doing some spring cleaning?

[davell]

The only real problem I see with it it too many moving pieces, meaning that wed have to do something with Byrd or Fukudome.

 

One thing you have to keep in mind with acquiring Beltran is that we're losing value in the deal as well. If we add Beltran (1.3 WAR so far this year) we have to bench or trade Kosuke (1.0 WAR so far) or Byrd (0.4 WAR so far). It's still early in the year, but Kosuke has been nearly as valuable as Beltran to this point, primarily because Beltran's been bad defensively and Kosuke's been good.

 

If you deal Kosuke, you have to look at the difference in their production at the time of the trade and determine if the difference in production is worth probably a net negative in prospects. There are questions with both players - can Kosuke avoid his month-long slumps and can Beltran stay healthy - and I think it'd be prudent to wait as long as you can before pulling the trigger on the deals so you get as much information as possible on the two.

 

If you deal Byrd, you have to ask whether Beltran can still play center and stay healthy. He hasn't logged an inning there this year (he's been only a RF) and has been pretty awful defensively in right. Byrd's been bad defensively as well, but he's younger and has much less of an injury history than Beltran and is almost certainly the better bet to rebound. You could always move Kosuke to center if you trade Byrd, but you're losing a ton of Kosuke's value doing that. Beltran's been quite a bit more valuable than Byrd so far, making this the more preferable scenario, but Byrd has recent history on his side.

 

Could dealing for Beltran be a good idea? Sure, but I'd wait until much closer to the deadline before advocating or criticizing it definitively.

 

 

I'm on board with this scenario: Move Byrd in a deal for Beltran. He makes sense for the Mets from a dollar perspective and he'd be there another year as well. Sure, it'd take some prospect(s) as well, but if it's not anything major, then why not? Beltran can help the offense this year and if it makes us a contender, then great. If not, let him go and get some sort of comp for him pick-wise in the process most likely. Brett will be ready by then, in all likelihood, so we won't need him any longer than this season and it rids us of Byrd, which is something we're going to need to do as well, in the process.

 

That said, if they're going to want anything more than a C/C+ type prospect from us, then my answer is an unequivacable "no". By C type guys, I'm talking Flaherty/Raley types. Fringe top 20 guys in our system basically.

[Guest]

The only real problem I see with it it too many moving pieces, meaning that wed have to do something with Byrd or Fukudome.

 

One thing you have to keep in mind with acquiring Beltran is that we're losing value in the deal as well. If we add Beltran (1.3 WAR so far this year) we have to bench or trade Kosuke (1.0 WAR so far) or Byrd (0.4 WAR so far). It's still early in the year, but Kosuke has been nearly as valuable as Beltran to this point, primarily because Beltran's been bad defensively and Kosuke's been good.

 

If you deal Kosuke, you have to look at the difference in their production at the time of the trade and determine if the difference in production is worth probably a net negative in prospects. There are questions with both players - can Kosuke avoid his month-long slumps and can Beltran stay healthy - and I think it'd be prudent to wait as long as you can before pulling the trigger on the deals so you get as much information as possible on the two.

 

If you deal Byrd, you have to ask whether Beltran can still play center and stay healthy. He hasn't logged an inning there this year (he's been only a RF) and has been pretty awful defensively in right. Byrd's been bad defensively as well, but he's younger and has much less of an injury history than Beltran and is almost certainly the better bet to rebound. You could always move Kosuke to center if you trade Byrd, but you're losing a ton of Kosuke's value doing that. Beltran's been quite a bit more valuable than Byrd so far, making this the more preferable scenario, but Byrd has recent history on his side.

 

Could dealing for Beltran be a good idea? Sure, but I'd wait until much closer to the deadline before advocating or criticizing it definitively.

 

I didn't even realize that he was playing right this year. If he could move to center, or if Fukudome could play center, I think the offensive upgrade from Byrd to Beltran would more than make up for any defensive dropoff (I'm not sure how good Byrd is defensively). I also wouldn't consider trading Fukudome in a deal for Beltran. I think that's more of a lateral move/slight upgrade. I'd only consider Byrd, who is only six months younger than Beltran.

 

Are you talking offensively when it comes to Byrd being a better bet to rebound? Because his OPS coming into today was .721 and that's with career-high in BABIP (.370) and LD% (28%). If anything, I'd say Byrd is likely to get worse as the season goes on. Beltran's not hitting the ball as hard (15% LD%) but his BABIP is only .289 so his .977 OPS isn't boosted based on good luck.

 

And I was definitely talking about a trade later in the year, not now. It's way too early to consider the Cubs contenders the way things are going. I mean, if Cashner and Wells have setbacks and Doug Davis stinks, then we're stuck with Coleman and Davis/someone else in the 4 and 5 spots. Plus, even though Dempster's been good the last three games, it's entirely possible that this stretch is the fluke rather than the first couple starts.

[Little Slide Rooter]

The only real problem I see with it it too many moving pieces, meaning that wed have to do something with Byrd or Fukudome.

 

One thing you have to keep in mind with acquiring Beltran is that we're losing value in the deal as well. If we add Beltran (1.3 WAR so far this year) we have to bench or trade Kosuke (1.0 WAR so far) or Byrd (0.4 WAR so far). It's still early in the year, but Kosuke has been nearly as valuable as Beltran to this point, primarily because Beltran's been bad defensively and Kosuke's been good.

 

If you deal Kosuke, you have to look at the difference in their production at the time of the trade and determine if the difference in production is worth probably a net negative in prospects. There are questions with both players - can Kosuke avoid his month-long slumps and can Beltran stay healthy - and I think it'd be prudent to wait as long as you can before pulling the trigger on the deals so you get as much information as possible on the two.

 

If you deal Byrd, you have to ask whether Beltran can still play center and stay healthy. He hasn't logged an inning there this year (he's been only a RF) and has been pretty awful defensively in right. Byrd's been bad defensively as well, but he's younger and has much less of an injury history than Beltran and is almost certainly the better bet to rebound. You could always move Kosuke to center if you trade Byrd, but you're losing a ton of Kosuke's value doing that. Beltran's been quite a bit more valuable than Byrd so far, making this the more preferable scenario, but Byrd has recent history on his side.

 

Could dealing for Beltran be a good idea? Sure, but I'd wait until much closer to the deadline before advocating or criticizing it definitively.

 

I didn't even realize that he was playing right this year. If he could move to center, or if Fukudome could play center, I think the offensive upgrade from Byrd to Beltran would more than make up for any defensive dropoff (I'm not sure how good Byrd is defensively). I also wouldn't consider trading Fukudome in a deal for Beltran. I think that's more of a lateral move/slight upgrade. I'd only consider Byrd, who is only six months younger than Beltran.

 

Are you talking offensively when it comes to Byrd being a better bet to rebound? Because his OPS coming into today was .721 and that's with career-high in BABIP (.370) and LD% (28%). If anything, I'd say Byrd is likely to get worse as the season goes on. Beltran's not hitting the ball as hard (15% LD%) but his BABIP is only .289 so his .977 OPS isn't boosted based on good luck.

 

And I was definitely talking about a trade later in the year, not now. It's way too early to consider the Cubs contenders the way things are going. I mean, if Cashner and Wells have setbacks and Doug Davis stinks, then we're stuck with Coleman and Davis/someone else in the 4 and 5 spots. Plus, even though Dempster's been good the last three games, it's entirely possible that this stretch is the fluke rather than the first couple starts.

 

Again, its a risk. I would want to give up to much for him in terms of prospects. While Fukudome has been very good, what we really need is 1 elite hitter which a healthy Beltran is. Id be willing to pick up whats left of the contract, plus 2-3 fringy prospects, as someone said of the Flaherty, Raley, LaMahieu ilk, or if they prefer major league ready guys, Id give them guys like DeWitt and Coleman. Obviously, Brett Jackson and Trey McNut are off limits. I know a lot of people disagree, but assuming that the rest of our rotation returns and is productive, I feel strongly that 1 elite hitter would make all the diference in the world for this team.

[dew1679666265]

I'm on board with this scenario: Move Byrd in a deal for Beltran. He makes sense for the Mets from a dollar perspective and he'd be there another year as well. Sure, it'd take some prospect(s) as well, but if it's not anything major, then why not? Beltran can help the offense this year and if it makes us a contender, then great. If not, let him go and get some sort of comp for him pick-wise in the process most likely. Brett will be ready by then, in all likelihood, so we won't need him any longer than this season and it rids us of Byrd, which is something we're going to need to do as well, in the process.

 

That said, if they're going to want anything more than a C/C+ type prospect from us, then my answer is an unequivacable "no". By C type guys, I'm talking Flaherty/Raley types. Fringe top 20 guys in our system basically.

 

Trading Byrd is probably the route to get the biggest upgrade, but I really don't think the Mets will want either Byrd or Kosuke. With their financial troubles, adding even a reduced contract may not be an option. My bet is if they want an ML ready OF, it'd be Colvin. Even if they're not enamored by him, he's cheaper with more upside going forward than Byrd or Kosuke.

 

Looking ahead, however, trading Byrd this season means we're guaranteed to see Colvin in RF next season. I don't see any way Kosuke comes back next year and with Byrd gone we'd have to start Colvin and hope BJax is ready to start the year. If we keep Byrd, Quade may decide to go with Jackson and let Colvin remain as the 4th OF. We'd be a better team overall next season in the latter scenario, but worse this year.

[Backtobanks]

I'm on board with this scenario: Move Byrd in a deal for Beltran. He makes sense for the Mets from a dollar perspective and he'd be there another year as well. Sure, it'd take some prospect(s) as well, but if it's not anything major, then why not? Beltran can help the offense this year and if it makes us a contender, then great. If not, let him go and get some sort of comp for him pick-wise in the process most likely. Brett will be ready by then, in all likelihood, so we won't need him any longer than this season and it rids us of Byrd, which is something we're going to need to do as well, in the process.

 

That said, if they're going to want anything more than a C/C+ type prospect from us, then my answer is an unequivacable "no". By C type guys, I'm talking Flaherty/Raley types. Fringe top 20 guys in our system basically.

 

Trading Byrd is probably the route to get the biggest upgrade, but I really don't think the Mets will want either Byrd or Kosuke. With their financial troubles, adding even a reduced contract may not be an option. My bet is if they want an ML ready OF, it'd be Colvin. Even if they're not enamored by him, he's cheaper with more upside going forward than Byrd or Kosuke.

 

Looking ahead, however, trading Byrd this season means we're guaranteed to see Colvin in RF next season. I don't see any way Kosuke comes back next year and with Byrd gone we'd have to start Colvin and hope BJax is ready to start the year. If we keep Byrd, Quade may decide to go with Jackson and let Colvin remain as the 4th OF. We'd be a better team overall next season in the latter scenario, but worse this year.

 

I do wonder if Colvin can rebound from a what seems to be a complete loss of confidence. With DeWitt getting practice in the OF and rumors of Colvin being sent to AAA, trading Colvin for Beltran might be something to think about if the Cubs are stil in the hunt at the deadline.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I'm on board with this scenario: Move Byrd in a deal for Beltran. He makes sense for the Mets from a dollar perspective and he'd be there another year as well. Sure, it'd take some prospect(s) as well, but if it's not anything major, then why not? Beltran can help the offense this year and if it makes us a contender, then great. If not, let him go and get some sort of comp for him pick-wise in the process most likely. Brett will be ready by then, in all likelihood, so we won't need him any longer than this season and it rids us of Byrd, which is something we're going to need to do as well, in the process.

 

That said, if they're going to want anything more than a C/C+ type prospect from us, then my answer is an unequivacable "no". By C type guys, I'm talking Flaherty/Raley types. Fringe top 20 guys in our system basically.

 

Trading Byrd is probably the route to get the biggest upgrade, but I really don't think the Mets will want either Byrd or Kosuke. With their financial troubles, adding even a reduced contract may not be an option. My bet is if they want an ML ready OF, it'd be Colvin. Even if they're not enamored by him, he's cheaper with more upside going forward than Byrd or Kosuke.

 

Looking ahead, however, trading Byrd this season means we're guaranteed to see Colvin in RF next season. I don't see any way Kosuke comes back next year and with Byrd gone we'd have to start Colvin and hope BJax is ready to start the year. If we keep Byrd, Quade may decide to go with Jackson and let Colvin remain as the 4th OF. We'd be a better team overall next season in the latter scenario, but worse this year.

 

I think that we could either get a 3rd team involved for Marlon Byrd. If theres a team out there in need of an outfielder with a decent bat, who doesnt want to give up the cash or prospects it would take to land Beltran, it would work. The Cubs would get Beltran and a prospect or 2 from whoever we send Byrd to, Mets would get prospects and cash, and Team X would get Byrd and maybe some cash. Either that or we could just flip Byrd in a seperate transaction. With Byrds production and price with another year on the contract, he should be attractive to someone, even if we end up still picking up a few mil on him as well. Ricketts did say that they have the money if the right player comes around and were in the right positon when the time comes, and al the money comes off the books after this season anyway. As Ive said all along, its a high risk high reward proposition, but after the past few years or Cubs baseball, its one Id be willing to make.

Edited May 14, 2011 by Little Slide Rooter

[biittner77]

I'll take David Wright for Aramis and prospects. GIve them an expiring contract to save money and some decent arms for the future.

 

an expiring contract? this isn't the nba.

 

Wouldn't that potentially have some appeal to a team in serious financial trouble?

 

Thank you. The mets are so bad off right now that they need to start shipping guys out quickly. I'm pretty sure they are 600 million in the hole and no one is going to their games. But yeah the mets would take some back lash for trading wright so they would at least need to feign competitiveness by picking up a deteriorating veteran who they arent on the hook for past this year. all the while picking up pitchers which is the biggest reason why they have sucked for the last 8 years.

 

If the Mets traded Wright for pitching, they'd still need to get somebody that could play 3rd the rest of the season. If the Cubs were to add money to the deal there would be little reason for the Mets not to take Ramirez back.

 

Of course trading for Wright probably precludes the fantasy-land, never going to happen despite a 30 page NSBB thread, FA signing of Pujols or the fat guy from the Brewers.

[dew1679666265]

I didn't even realize that he was playing right this year. If he could move to center, or if Fukudome could play center, I think the offensive upgrade from Byrd to Beltran would more than make up for any defensive dropoff (I'm not sure how good Byrd is defensively). I also wouldn't consider trading Fukudome in a deal for Beltran. I think that's more of a lateral move/slight upgrade. I'd only consider Byrd, who is only six months younger than Beltran.

 

According to UZR/150, Byrd's been a roughly -7 defender this year in center while Beltran's been a -12 defender in right and was a -7 defender in center last year in around 500 innings. My biggest concern with acquiring Beltran and putting him in center is health. As injury prone as he's been recently, he may not stay healthy roaming around center as opposed to right.

 

A lot of Kosuke's value is in his defense in right, so he could move to center in a hypothetical deal but I think he's a slightly negative defender in center while he's a plus defender in right.

 

Are you talking offensively when it comes to Byrd being a better bet to rebound? Because his OPS coming into today was .721 and that's with career-high in BABIP (.370) and LD% (28%). If anything, I'd say Byrd is likely to get worse as the season goes on. Beltran's not hitting the ball as hard (15% LD%) but his BABIP is only .289 so his .977 OPS isn't boosted based on good luck.

 

I was talking more defensively than offensively. Just last season, Byrd was a good to very good defender in center and is more likely to stay healthy while playing center.

 

And I was definitely talking about a trade later in the year, not now. It's way too early to consider the Cubs contenders the way things are going. I mean, if Cashner and Wells have setbacks and Doug Davis stinks, then we're stuck with Coleman and Davis/someone else in the 4 and 5 spots. Plus, even though Dempster's been good the last three games, it's entirely possible that this stretch is the fluke rather than the first couple starts.

 

As I said before, I'm definitely in favor of waiting. However, if we're in contention around July, Beltran's still hitting well and either Byrd is still struggling or Kosuke has cooled off, a trade could be a good idea. The strength of our farm system is its depth, so dealing a couple C prospects isn't going to be that significant.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I'll take David Wright for Aramis and prospects. GIve them an expiring contract to save money and some decent arms for the future.

 

an expiring contract? this isn't the nba.

 

Wouldn't that potentially have some appeal to a team in serious financial trouble?

 

Thank you. The mets are so bad off right now that they need to start shipping guys out quickly. I'm pretty sure they are 600 million in the hole and no one is going to their games. But yeah the mets would take some back lash for trading wright so they would at least need to feign competitiveness by picking up a deteriorating veteran who they arent on the hook for past this year. all the while picking up pitchers which is the biggest reason why they have sucked for the last 8 years.

 

If the Mets traded Wright for pitching, they'd still need to get somebody that could play 3rd the rest of the season. If the Cubs were to add money to the deal there would be little reason for the Mets not to take Ramirez back.

 

Of course trading for Wright probably precludes the fantasy-land, never going to happen despite a 30 page NSBB thread, FA signing of Pujols or the fat guy from the Brewers.

 

While Im very skeptical that Pujols would leave the Cardinals, I have no reason to believe that The Cubs wouldnt be a perfect fit for Fielder. What makes you think its so far fetched?

[dew1679666265]

I do wonder if Colvin can rebound from a what seems to be a complete loss of confidence. With DeWitt getting practice in the OF and rumors of Colvin being sent to AAA, trading Colvin for Beltran might be something to think about if the Cubs are stil in the hunt at the deadline.

 

I think he'll rebound, I just don't know what he'll rebound to. There's no way he's as bad as he's been this year, but there was a lot of unsustainable production last year. If all the elements are right by around the deadline, I wouldn't dislike some type of Colvin/Coleman for Beltran trade. The Mets get a couple ML-ready, decent prospects while the Cubs don't give up anybody vital to the future. We wouldn't lose any OF depth by swapping Colvin for Beltran and by August we should have Cashner/Wells back and if we need a 6th starter, one of Davis or Ortiz probably wouldn't be much worse than Coleman.

 

In that scenario, I'd keep Byrd and Kosuke and go with a four-OF rotation. You increase the likelihood that Beltran and Soriano stay healthy and you can go back to starting Byrd full-time next season. Ego would be a reason why that scenario wouldn't work, but entering the year it appeared the Byrd/Kosuke/Soriano trio would be sharing time with Colvin, so sharing time with Beltran might even be less of a hit to the ego.

[dew1679666265]

I think that we could either get a 3rd team involved for Marlon Byrd. If theres a team out there in need of an outfielder with a decent bat, who doesnt want to give up the cash or prospects it would take to land Beltran, it would work. The Cubs would get Beltran and a prospect or 2 from whoever we send Byrd to, Mets would get prospects and cash, and Team X would get Byrd and maybe some cash. Either that or we could just flip Byrd in a seperate transaction. With Byrds production and price with another year on the contract, he should be attractive to someone, even if we end up still picking up a few mil on him as well. Ricketts did say that they have the money if the right player comes around and were in the right positon when the time comes, and al the money comes off the books after this season anyway. As Ive said all along, its a high risk high reward proposition, but after the past few years or Cubs baseball, its one Id be willing to make.

 

Involving a third team is what I was getting at in a roundabout way. I think the Mets would be more interested in Colvin if they want an ML OF, so Byrd or Kosuke would have to go elsewhere. We're probably getting less for them than we'd give for Beltran, though, so we'd have to factor that in to decide if the trade was worth it.

 

On a side note, I don't think the next few years are as bleak for the Cubs as you seem to. I actually think they'll get better from here. First and third are a couple of big question marks going forward, but if Pujols and Fielder are both on the market, there's no reason why the Cubs shouldn't get one of the two - and they really should be able to get Pujols. You then have guys like Cashner, Castro, BJax and McNutt making the majors/getting better and may even get solid contributions from guys like Barney, Vitters, JJax, Whitenack and the slew of young relievers.

 

If we stick to the apparent plan, we're about to get quite a bit younger over the next couple of years and have a bunch of quality minor leaguers on the way. We need a Pujols/Fielder type, but we have the resources to do it.

[SouthSideRyan]

Because his OPS coming into today was .721 and that's with career-high in BABIP (.370) and LD% (28%). If anything, I'd say Byrd is likely to get worse as the season goes on. Beltran's not hitting the ball as hard (15% LD%) but his BABIP is only .289 so his .977 OPS isn't boosted based on good luck

 

That's not what that means.

[Guest]

Because his OPS coming into today was .721 and that's with career-high in BABIP (.370) and LD% (28%). If anything, I'd say Byrd is likely to get worse as the season goes on. Beltran's not hitting the ball as hard (15% LD%) but his BABIP is only .289 so his .977 OPS isn't boosted based on good luck

 

That's not what that means.

 

Explain, please.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I think that we could either get a 3rd team involved for Marlon Byrd. If theres a team out there in need of an outfielder with a decent bat, who doesnt want to give up the cash or prospects it would take to land Beltran, it would work. The Cubs would get Beltran and a prospect or 2 from whoever we send Byrd to, Mets would get prospects and cash, and Team X would get Byrd and maybe some cash. Either that or we could just flip Byrd in a seperate transaction. With Byrds production and price with another year on the contract, he should be attractive to someone, even if we end up still picking up a few mil on him as well. Ricketts did say that they have the money if the right player comes around and were in the right positon when the time comes, and al the money comes off the books after this season anyway. As Ive said all along, its a high risk high reward proposition, but after the past few years or Cubs baseball, its one Id be willing to make.

 

Involving a third team is what I was getting at in a roundabout way. I think the Mets would be more interested in Colvin if they want an ML OF, so Byrd or Kosuke would have to go elsewhere. We're probably getting less for them than we'd give for Beltran, though, so we'd have to factor that in to decide if the trade was worth it.

 

On a side note, I don't think the next few years are as bleak for the Cubs as you seem to. I actually think they'll get better from here. First and third are a couple of big question marks going forward, but if Pujols and Fielder are both on the market, there's no reason why the Cubs shouldn't get one of the two - and they really should be able to get Pujols. You then have guys like Cashner, Castro, BJax and McNutt making the majors/getting better and may even get solid contributions from guys like Barney, Vitters, JJax, Whitenack and the slew of young relievers.

 

If we stick to the apparent plan, we're about to get quite a bit younger over the next couple of years and have a bunch of quality minor leaguers on the way. We need a Pujols/Fielder type, but we have the resources to do it.

I don't think that the future would be bleak if we got Pujols or Fielder, but that is an if. Maybe not a huge if, but an if none the less. If we get one of those guys, we have the pieces to build around them, even if we move a few for Beltran.

[dew1679666265]

I don't think that the future would be bleak if we got Pujols or Fielder, but that is an if. Maybe not a huge if, but an if none the less. If we get one of those guys, we have the pieces to build around them, even if we move a few for Beltran.

 

I just don't see the urgency to go for it this year. Obviously we want to win the World Series and if we have a legit shot I say take it. However, I think our chances of winning will be better over the next couple of years than they are now (even without Pujols/Prince), so if we don't get a good price on Beltran I don't think the need is there to shell out for him.

[Backtobanks]

I don't think that the future would be bleak if we got Pujols or Fielder, but that is an if. Maybe not a huge if, but an if none the less. If we get one of those guys, we have the pieces to build around them, even if we move a few for Beltran.

 

I just don't see the urgency to go for it this year. Obviously we want to win the World Series and if we have a legit shot I say take it. However, I think our chances of winning will be better over the next couple of years than they are now (even without Pujols/Prince), so if we don't get a good price on Beltran I don't think the need is there to shell out for him.

 

I think most of us are saying that Beltran should be a possibility only if we are contending and don't have to overpay. It might be good experience for our young players to get playoff experience even if winning the WS isn't going to happen this year.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I don't think that the future would be bleak if we got Pujols or Fielder, but that is an if. Maybe not a huge if, but an if none the less. If we get one of those guys, we have the pieces to build around them, even if we move a few for Beltran.

 

I just don't see the urgency to go for it this year. Obviously we want to win the World Series and if we have a legit shot I say take it. However, I think our chances of winning will be better over the next couple of years than they are now (even without Pujols/Prince), so if we don't get a good price on Beltran I don't think the need is there to shell out for him.

 

I think most of us are saying that Beltran should be a possibility only if we are contending and don't have to overpay. It might be good experience for our young players to get playoff experience even if winning the WS isn't going to happen this year.

This, but the catch 22 is that Beltran, or someone like him could be the difference between contending this year or not, so if we were to do it, wed want to do it soon if the Mets are willing to raise the white flag soon, so the Cards and Reds don't leave us in their dust. If July rolls around and were 7-8 games back, its not a logical move.

[biittner77]

While Im very skeptical that Pujols would leave the Cardinals, I have no reason to believe that The Cubs wouldnt be a perfect fit for Fielder. What makes you think its so far fetched?

 

Fielder will get more money/ years from an AL team that can DH him as well as play him at 1st. I could see a team like the Orioles driving a truckload of money up to his door and he'd be foolish not to at least kick the tires.

 

I'm hoping that the Yankees sign Pujols and are willing to trade Texiera for salary relief. That gets Pujols out of the NL Central and really has to hurt the Cards a lot. If the Cubs could be the team that gets Texiera it would still be a net improvement.

[SouthSideRyan]

Because his OPS coming into today was .721 and that's with career-high in BABIP (.370) and LD% (28%). If anything, I'd say Byrd is likely to get worse as the season goes on. Beltran's not hitting the ball as hard (15% LD%) but his BABIP is only .289 so his .977 OPS isn't boosted based on good luck

 

That's not what that means.

 

Explain, please.

 

Byrd's career high in BABIP is because of his high LD%, Beltran's BABIP is low (though still unnaturally high) due to his low LD%

 

ETA: Went to look up the #s you referenced because I was in disbelief that Byrd had a LD% of 28 with an OPS that low. Fangraphs has him at 19.4%, which certainly changes things.

[Guest]

Because his OPS coming into today was .721 and that's with career-high in BABIP (.370) and LD% (28%). If anything, I'd say Byrd is likely to get worse as the season goes on. Beltran's not hitting the ball as hard (15% LD%) but his BABIP is only .289 so his .977 OPS isn't boosted based on good luck

 

That's not what that means.

 

Explain, please.

 

Byrd's career high in BABIP is because of his high LD%, Beltran's BABIP is low (though still unnaturally high) due to his low LD%

 

ETA: Went to look up the #s you referenced because I was in disbelief that Byrd had a LD% of 28 with an OPS that low. Fangraphs has him at 19.4%, which certainly changes things.

 

With Byrd, I was more referring to the fact that I didn't think he'd keep hitting line drives at the rate B-R has. If that drops down to his career levels, then his BABIP would be expected to drop a bit also, which I'd think would likely lead to a drop in his BA/OBP/SLG.

[Guest]

His IsoP is 60 points lower and his IsoD is 30 points lower than his career averages. He probably has more room to improve through regressing to the mean than he does to decline.

[dew1679666265]

I think most of us are saying that Beltran should be a possibility only if we are contending and don't have to overpay. It might be good experience for our young players to get playoff experience even if winning the WS isn't going to happen this year.

 

That was more in response to WSRs inference that we're in somewhat of a must-win situation this season. His previous posts led me to believe he sees this team falling off dramatically after this season and this is the year to "make a splash" so to speak and try for the World Series. My response was that I could easily see next year's team being better than this year's and perhaps dramatically (if we get Pujols, for instance).

 

I'm fine with adding Beltran if we're contending in July, but I wouldn't give up prospects for him beforehand. I want to see how some of these question marks are answered before giving up commodities for a pretty big question mark.

[SouthSideRyan]

Because his OPS coming into today was .721 and that's with career-high in BABIP (.370) and LD% (28%). If anything, I'd say Byrd is likely to get worse as the season goes on. Beltran's not hitting the ball as hard (15% LD%) but his BABIP is only .289 so his .977 OPS isn't boosted based on good luck

 

That's not what that means.

 

Explain, please.

 

Byrd's career high in BABIP is because of his high LD%, Beltran's BABIP is low (though still unnaturally high) due to his low LD%

 

ETA: Went to look up the #s you referenced because I was in disbelief that Byrd had a LD% of 28 with an OPS that low. Fangraphs has him at 19.4%, which certainly changes things.

 

With Byrd, I was more referring to the fact that I didn't think he'd keep hitting line drives at the rate B-R has. If that drops down to his career levels, then his BABIP would be expected to drop a bit also, which I'd think would likely lead to a drop in his BA/OBP/SLG.

 

Are you expecting Beltran's LD% to increase?

[dew1679666265]

This, but the catch 22 is that Beltran, or someone like him could be the difference between contending this year or not, so if we were to do it, wed want to do it soon if the Mets are willing to raise the white flag soon, so the Cards and Reds don't leave us in their dust. If July rolls around and were 7-8 games back, its not a logical move.

 

I think you're vastly overrating Beltran if you think he can be the difference between contending and not contending for this team. If we were talking about acquiring Pujols/Fielder/AGonz/Utley/Cano or somebody like that, I'd agree with you. But we're simply adding to a strength by adding Beltran instead of fixing a weakness.

 

I know Beltran's gotten off to a red hot start, but this isn't Beltran in his prime where he's an elite hitter and a great defender. This is a guy who's played 145 games total the past two seasons and posted a .768 OPS last season while being worth 1 win. He's a guy who could help put us over the top if we've already got a team that's solidly in contention for the playoffs. There's no way I'd favor dealing for Beltran now with as many questions as this team has. If they're contending in July and can get him for a couple C prospects, fine. But now is far too early.

[Guest]

No idea on Beltran, but if I had to guess, I'd say it would likely go up a bit, but not much since his career is 20% and with the Mets it's 19%.

 

And according to B-R and Fangraphs, it already has a bit. Both have him at 17%.