BA Top 100

[scarey]

Who cares about their WHIP? I don't.

 

You don't care about how many hits and walks they're giving up? Really?

[Splendid Splinter]

Really can't wait to see Trout.

 

 

Dude... if he's in AA this year, I'm going to see him. I don't care if it's in Little Rock/Springdale/Tulsa... It's why I'm pumped about living in Fayetteville now (used to live in NW Indiana and closest minor league was like Indianapolis Indians- which is like 100 miles away so I didn't get to go often- I think Gary, Indiana or somewhere up there has either a minor league team or indy team). I'll be going to the Naturals (Royals AA team) games quite a bit this year and get to see other big time prospects in the Texas League.

[scarey]

Really can't wait to see Trout.

 

 

Dude... if he's in AA this year, I'm going to see him. I don't care if it's in Little Rock/Springdale/Tulsa... It's why I'm pumped about living in Fayetteville now (used to live in NW Indiana and closest minor league was like Indianapolis Indians- which is like 100 miles away so I didn't get to go often- I think Gary, Indiana or somewhere up there has either a minor league team or indy team). I'll be going to the Naturals (Royals AA team) games quite a bit this year and get to see other big time prospects in the Texas League.

 

The Railcats are indy.

 

South Bend has a Diamondbacks affiliate, Fort Wayne has a Padres affiliate, and of course Peoria isn't too far way if you make a day of it and go watch the Chiefs.

[Splendid Splinter]

The Railcats are indy.

 

South Bend has a Diamondbacks affiliate, Fort Wayne has a Padres affiliate, and of course Peoria isn't too far way if you make a day of it and go watch the Chiefs.

 

 

Thought Railcats were indy. I didn't even know South Bend had a minor league team there. South Bend and Peoria are about the same time-wise (2 1/2 hours or so) and Fort Wayne is about 3 hours. Indianapolis is like 1 1/2-2 hrs depending on how fast I wanna drive. Indianapolis was nice cuz it was basically ALL interstate (except for like 20 miles maybe) for me. I have seen the Chiefs in Peoria a couple years ago. I did it when it was a weekend game and it was an all day event for me. It was nice for what it was.

 

Now living in Fayetteville, AR, the Arvest Ballpark in Springdale, AR is like literally 10 minutes from my place if that. It'll be nice for me on some nights when I'm bored or got nothing to do and just drive over there and watch a game and not worry about how late I'll be getting home that night (then getting up for work or school the next day). Back home, I had to plan the trip and couldn't go to a game on a whim.

 

 

Now back to the BA Top 100... Did Vitters make the list or no? I can't remember if he did now. It's nice to see Cubs had 4 guys (5 if Vitters made it) in the top 100, even though we traded 2 of them. I think it bodes well for the Cubs farm system and what Wilken has done for them so far... It'll be interesting to see next year who's on the list for the Cubs. Hopefully a few guys step it up and get on the list (I think Jackson probably won't be there next year as he'll be in the majors this year sometime).

[illiniguy]

Royals 2011 Class Best Of The Top 100 Era?

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=10925

 

I'm not so sure Baseball America is the type that would make for exaggeration and hyperbole.

 

If the Royals are bad 3 years from now, this will be one hell of an epic fail....

And they have a top 5 pick again. Plus next year they will have the top pick most likely.

[Guest]

Splendid Splinter, Vitters didn't make BA's Top 100.

[illiniguy]

Splendid Splinter, Vitters didn't make BA's Top 100.

They did have him listed in their guys who could rocket up the list next year though.

[Outshined_One]

And personally, K/9 and BB/9 are probably the most important stats to use when looking at a minor league pitcher. Miller has an advantage in both over McNutt.

 

McNutt's BB/9 profile is odd. He has issues with it in Peoria, then substantially cut down on them significantly after moving up to High A and AA. Miller has the overall edge and the comparative edge when looking at both pitchers during their stints in the MWL in BB/9, but some of it depends on whether you put more stock into McNutt's first half or second half.

 

HR/9 is the third stat I'd throw in there. McNutt has a substantial edge over Miller there. Both guys do a good job of keeping the ball in the park, though.

 

The reason I like Miller is I buy into his profile. In a loaded 2009 draft pitching-wise, he had one of the best pure arms. However, he was very raw; pretty much all fastball. Given his numbers this past season, it is abundantly clear that he has progressed substantially since being drafted. He still has his share of kinks to work out, but the guy has an impressive ceiling, especially if he continues growing like this.

 

And I absolutely hate that he's a Cardinal. Ugh, I hope they do something stupid like trade him for Mark Buehrle.

[CubsWin]

And personally, K/9 and BB/9 are probably the most important stats to use when looking at a minor league pitcher. Miller has an advantage in both over McNutt.

 

McNutt's BB/9 profile is odd. He has issues with it in Peoria, then substantially cut down on them significantly after moving up to High A and AA. Miller has the overall edge and the comparative edge when looking at both pitchers during their stints in the MWL in BB/9, but some of it depends on whether you put more stock into McNutt's first half or second half.

 

HR/9 is the third stat I'd throw in there. McNutt has a substantial edge over Miller there. Both guys do a good job of keeping the ball in the park, though.

 

The reason I like Miller is I buy into his profile. In a loaded 2009 draft pitching-wise, he had one of the best pure arms. However, he was very raw; pretty much all fastball. Given his numbers this past season, it is abundantly clear that he has progressed substantially since being drafted. He still has his share of kinks to work out, but the guy has an impressive ceiling, especially if he continues growing like this.

 

And I absolutely hate that he's a Cardinal. Ugh, I hope they do something stupid like trade him for Mark Buehrle.

But then he'd be on the White Sox. That's almost as bad...

[Coach C]

Royals 2011 Class Best Of The Top 100 Era?

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=10925

 

I'm not so sure Baseball America is the type that would make for exaggeration and hyperbole.

 

If the Royals are bad 3 years from now, this will be one hell of an epic fail....

And they have a top 5 pick again. Plus next year they will have the top pick most likely.

 

Even with that, wouldn't this next draft may also be the last one without a hard-slotting system (both sides seem to agree somewhat on a slotting system for the next CBA)?

[Northside Blues]

Who cares about their WHIP? I don't.

 

You don't care about how many hits and walks they're giving up? Really?

 

Not his hits, really.

[Northside Blues]

Kevin Goldstein's top 101

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13078

 

1. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals

2. Mike Trout, OF, Angels

3. Jesus Montero, C, Yankees

4. Domonic Brown, OF, Phillies

5. Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves

6. Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Reds

7. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals

8. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pirates

9. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Rays

10. Matt Moore, LHP, Rays

15. Shelby Miller, RHP, Cardinals

47. Brett Jackson, OF, Cubs

68. Trey McNutt, RHP, Cubs

70. Chris Archer, RHP, Rays

Edited March 3, 2011 by Northside Blues

[scarey]

Who cares about their WHIP? I don't.

 

You don't care about how many hits and walks they're giving up? Really?

 

Not his hits, really.

 

How are hits completely inconsequential? Sure, the fielders are worse, and the fields are also worse... but so are the hitters.

 

Last year, McNutt gave up less hits in 13 more innings pitched compared to Miller. He also did that while spending half of his time between A+ and AA. You're telling me that means absolutely nothing to you?

[BeerHere]

Kevin Goldstein's top 101

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13078

 

1. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals

2. Mike Trout, OF, Angels

3. Jesus Montero, C, Yankees

4. Domonic Brown, OF, Phillies

5. Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves

6. Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Reds

7. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals

8. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pirates

9. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Rays

10. Matt Moore, LHP, Rays

47. Brett Jackson, OF, Cubs

68. Trey McNutt, RHP, Cubs

70. Chris Archer, RHP, Rays

Interesting that he has McNutt above Archer - although at that point there is little difference between 68 and 70 on any list.

[Northside Blues]

Who cares about their WHIP? I don't.

 

You don't care about how many hits and walks they're giving up? Really?

 

Not his hits, really.

 

How are hits completely inconsequential? Sure, the fielders are worse, and the fields are also worse... but so are the hitters.

 

Does a pitcher have any control whether or ball is hit ten feet to the left of the shortstop, or right at him?

 

No.

 

But, a pitcher does have some control over the type of batted ball against him. Now, could Miller have given up more line drives than McNutt?

 

No, Miller's LD% this year was 12.9%, McNutt's across all three levels was 16.5%.

 

Now, you're right, AA hitters are better than Low A hitters, so we would expect them to get more liners off of pitchers. So could McNutt's LD% in the MWL have been lower than Miller's?

 

 

No, McNutt's was comparable but a tad higher at 13.7%

 

So...

 

...let's assume have two pitchers, we will call them Kelly Hiller and Ray McGrunt. Kelly Hiller strikes out more batters, walks fewer batters, gives up a home run or two more, gets more ground balls, gives up fewer line drives, and also has fewer batters square up on the ball against him than Ray McGrunt. Kelly Hiller also has better pure stuff from a scouting standpoint, yet who do you choose? Ray McGrunt?

 

[scarey]

Where do you get information on batted balls? That's a huge missing piece of the equation that I thought we did not have here. Obviously that's going to have an effect on my opinion.

[Northside Blues]

Magic!

 

No really.

 

http://www.statcorner.com/pitcher.php?id=571946 - Shelby Miller

http://www.statcorner.com/pitcher.php?id=571939 - Trey McNutt

[Northside Blues]

Notice that their MLB.com id's are only 7 away from each other. Mc comes before Mi, so McNutt's got him beat there and that's of course the difference maker.

[woodchip2153]

isn't batted ball date for the minors even more unreliable than in the majors?

[Northside Blues]

Yeah, but is it unreliable enough to make up that much of a difference? I would guess the accuracy is within 2 or 3 percent at most. While that's enough to get McNutt's lower than Miller's if you want to make that weak argument, it's certainly not enough to push Miller's LD% high enough to the point where it A) becomes a reasonable explanation for his high BABIP or B) is a legitimate concern going forward for him because, as 'scarey' puts it, "He just threw the ball over the plate when he had to."

[woodchip2153]

Yeah, but is it unreliable enough to make up that much of a difference? I would guess the accuracy is within 2 or 3 percent at most. While that's enough to get McNutt's lower than Miller's if you want to make that weak argument, it's certainly not enough to push Miller's LD% high enough to the point where it A) becomes a reasonable explanation for his high BABIP or B) is a legitimate concern going forward for him because, as 'scarey' puts it, "He just threw the ball over the plate when he had to."

 

I don't know enough to take a position in this argument. I was just under the impression that we shouldn't rely on batted ball data, especially at the lower levels.

[Rob]

Yeah, but is it unreliable enough to make up that much of a difference? I would guess the accuracy is within 2 or 3 percent at most. While that's enough to get McNutt's lower than Miller's if you want to make that weak argument, it's certainly not enough to push Miller's LD% high enough to the point where it A) becomes a reasonable explanation for his high BABIP or B) is a legitimate concern going forward for him because, as 'scarey' puts it, "He just threw the ball over the plate when he had to."

 

It's not reliable to within 2-3%. LD% isn't even kept track of at some parks.

[CUBZ99]

Has McNutt pitched in a game yet this spring?

[scarey]

Yeah, but is it unreliable enough to make up that much of a difference? I would guess the accuracy is within 2 or 3 percent at most. While that's enough to get McNutt's lower than Miller's if you want to make that weak argument, it's certainly not enough to push Miller's LD% high enough to the point where it A) becomes a reasonable explanation for his high BABIP or B) is a legitimate concern going forward for him because, as 'scarey' puts it, "He just threw the ball over the plate when he had to."

 

It's not reliable to within 2-3%. LD% isn't even kept track of at some parks.

 

So... we should really assume batted ball data to be an unknown? That's what I was doing from the start. But... that's only because I've never been able to find such info and always assumed nobody keeps track of it (which I guess is partially right) :lol: .

Edited March 4, 2011 by scarey

[scarey]

is a legitimate concern going forward for him because, as 'scarey' puts it, "He just threw the ball over the plate when he had to."

 

First of all, why do you put my name in apostrophes?

 

Second, I guess I should have qualified my statement by starting out with "Based on the data, the conclusion I draw is...". Please excuse my faux pas.

 

Third, thank you for that site. I've never heard of it and am looking forward to checking it out through out the upcoming year.

 

Lastly, don't you think you're being a little high and mighty given the fact that you're using severely inadequate data? Sure, I'm making assumptions based on limited information available to us, and in fairness I shouldn't make such affirmative statements like the one I just partially contracted. Calling me out on that and presenting your own flawed argument doesn't make you more right than I though.