BA MWL Rankings

[ChiefsVoice]

Jim Callis telling me over twitter that "Two of them will get some pub! @nbaliva: MWL Top 20 is Friday? Hoping we see some of this year's @PeoriaChiefs getting some pub!"

 

Guessing that means Lee and McNutt. No doubt Trout will be #1. I hope McNutt gets above Turner and Miller but we'll see. If any of you join the chat on Friday I'd love to hear what Jim thinks of Cerda and Ha who are both drastically under rated. And Struck and Whitenack too. Seriously its impossible that anyone thought in March that Cerda would have over 70 RBI and he walked as much as he K'd in the 3 slot. Will excel even more when he doesn't have to bat 3rd. And what Ha did in 3 months was phenomenal. Had he joined us in April, Jae-Hoon would have finished in the top 5 in Avg.

 

Hope your off-seasons are all going well. Thanks for the support all season and if you get a chance head over to Milb.com and vote for the Chiefs (and Iowa) as Promos of the Year! We are nominated for having Maddux jersey retired and Iowa for a unique bobble head!

[davell]

I would like to think McNutt and Lee are both top 10 in the rankings, but who knows? I do think that they will both be top 100 guys overall though.

 

I was kind of thinking Ha had a shot at making the list honestly, but maybe his walk rate was just too much to overcome?

[davell]

Nate, on a side note, do you know the extent of Antigua and Jung's injuries that shut them down for the last few weeks of the season?

[toonsterwu]

My guess is that Shelby and Jacob Turner will both be ranked ahead of Kenneth McNutt. Can't blame them for that, although I think McNutt is very close to those two.

 

Nate, what was Struck's velocity in his last few games in Peoria? Was he hitting the low 90's?

 

And, can Cerda handle 2nd well enough if he gets more work at it? Would prefer to see Matt as the 2nd baseman, with Logan (if they move up together) as a utility guy.

[Outshined_One]

BA really likes Lee. Considering he got a nod for the Futures Game and was the #1 prospect in the NWL last season, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the Top 5. McNutt's gotten some love on their hot lists this season, so a Top 10 ranking wouldn't be out of the question.

 

Nate, what did you think of recent acquisitions Brett Wallach and Robinson Lopez?

[ChiefsVoice]

i don't know if it was Ha's walk rate or his lack of pre-season pub. Hopefully Callis mentions him at some point.

 

Antigua and Jung were both shoulder injuries. If we had more than a week left in the season they both would have stayed in Peoria. Neither seemed overly serious. Antigua was getting ready to come in the game and asked out. Jung followed the next day.

 

Struck was always low 90s. probably peaks about 93. Which could grow as he gets older and stronger.

 

Cerda can definitely play 2nd. His hands are very good as are his instincts for 2nd. He can't play the SS that Watkins can IMO but can play 3rd. Both could play the OF if need be too and Watkins did for us in both LF and CF this season. Honestly I think Cerda, Lee and Watkins will have a great race to the Majors.

 

I didn't see enough of Lopez to accurately comment. Two of his outings were abbreviated because of Silva's starts. And his first two were 30 pitches only cause of his blister. Both struggled to throw strikes with us. There is a lot to like about Wallach though. New to pitching and already looks like a pitcher and that he knows what he is doing. Receptive to learning, has the makeup of a major leaguer with the background and knows what it takes. When he threw strikes he was very good, mixed his pitches well and racked up Ks. Struggled with us a big when he didnt throw his off speed stuff for strikes and fell behind in the count.

 

Hope that helps!!

[Outshined_One]

i don't know if it was Ha's walk rate or his lack of pre-season pub. Hopefully Callis mentions him at some point.

 

Antigua and Jung were both shoulder injuries. If we had more than a week left in the season they both would have stayed in Peoria. Neither seemed overly serious. Antigua was getting ready to come in the game and asked out. Jung followed the next day.

 

Struck was always low 90s. probably peaks about 93. Which could grow as he gets older and stronger.

 

Cerda can definitely play 2nd. His hands are very good as are his instincts for 2nd. He can't play the SS that Watkins can IMO but can play 3rd. Both could play the OF if need be too and Watkins did for us in both LF and CF this season. Honestly I think Cerda, Lee and Watkins will have a great race to the Majors.

 

I didn't see enough of Lopez to accurately comment. Two of his outings were abbreviated because of Silva's starts. And his first two were 30 pitches only cause of his blister. Both struggled to throw strikes with us. There is a lot to like about Wallach though. New to pitching and already looks like a pitcher and that he knows what he is doing. Receptive to learning, has the makeup of a major leaguer with the background and knows what it takes. When he threw strikes he was very good, mixed his pitches well and racked up Ks. Struggled with us a big when he didnt throw his off speed stuff for strikes and fell behind in the count.

 

Hope that helps!!

 

It did, thanks!

[toonsterwu]

Thanks for the responses Nate.

 

There was a report this summer that said Struck was peaking in the high 80's, which was what got me worried. Feels a lot better to know that he is who I thought he was ... and here's hoping that with more time training, that he'll get stronger and add some more velocity.

 

If you are around, three other questions -

 

How much pop do you think Cerda can develop?

 

I know you said you don't have a good feel for Robinson Lopez yet, but are there any comparisons you can make between R. Lopez and Alberto Cabrera when they were at the same levels?

 

Lastly, I asked you earlier in the year what you thought about Casey Kopitzke. Now that the year is done, is there any insight you could provide us? How is Casey working with the kids? What do you think about his in-game managing capabilities? I just wonder if Casey will get put on the fast-track and be primed to be a big league coaching candidate. Seemed like a lot of positive vibe from his last 2 years.

[davell]

McNutt is 7th and Lee is 13th on the list.

 

1 Mike Trout

2 Shelby Miller

3 Will Myers

4 Jacob Turner

5 Aaron Hicks

6 Nick Franklin

7 Trey McNutt

8 Jake Odorizzi

9 Matt Davidson

10 Tyler Skaggs

11 Allen Webster

12 Jean Segura

13 Hak Ju Lee

14 Fabio Martinez

15 Rubby de la Rosa

16 Alex Colome

17 Chris Owings

18 Jerry Sands

19 Matt Lollis

20 Chad Jenkins

[davell]

Fairly surprised Lee was ranked this low, not because of performance, but because I thought BA loved him.......McNutt at 7 is very solid. Did he pitch enough to be ranked at Daytona as well?

[ChiefsVoice]

i hate this list. Turner and Hicks are not top 10. I like McNutt more than Miller though I get the ranking. Lee is way better than Segura and Franklin can't play defense....

 

Davell to your other questions:

 

Will Cerda ever be a 20 homer guy? No but he will add some pop. And will not be out-worked.

 

Cabrera is a very good comparison for Lopez. Both struggled to throw strikes their first time through Low-A. Archer too. Hopefully that will improve. Another thing to keep an eye on is that Lopez is one of the few pitchers I have ever seen to wear glasses while he pitches. And they gave him trouble on humid nights in August here. Hopefully that is something that can be worked on and in the future.

 

Casey was fantastic. The guys seem to really enjoy playing for him and being around him. He takes the losses hard and does a lot of teaching. We were such a young team all season pretty much at every position so he had a lot of teaching to do, not just baseball but about living away from home, maturing, how to act off the field, etc. I think all Casey needs is more experience. Its great having him with two older and experienced coaches in Rosario and Garbey and Casey is very hands-on in learning from them. I think the AFL appointment tells you what the Cubs think of him and that he is on the fast track.

[Guest]

I asked if any other Chiefs came close, specifically mentioning Ha, Antigua, Jung, Struck and Wallach. Jim Callis is pretty good with answering my questions.

 

Nate, thanks for the good news re: Antigua and jung's shoulders.

[davell]

I do think we've slept at least a bit on Cerda as a prospect. Personally, I'll have him higher than I will Watkins on the final top 30(or 50) list. That said, I'm not sure EITHER of them make the top 30. We're starting to get some serious depth to our system now, maybe not alot of high-end stars, but definitely tons of guys that appear to have major league potential.

[Guest]

Yeah. I like Cerda more than Watkins too but I was never enamored with Watkins like BA. If only Cerda could have stuck at catcher.

[Guest]

7. Trey McNutt, rhp, Peoria Chiefs (Cubs)

Age: 21. B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-4. Wt: 205. Drafted: Shelton State (Ala.) CC, 2009 (32).

 

While the first six players on this list signed for seven-figure bonuses, the Cubs stole the late-blooming McNutt in the 32nd round of the 2009 draft for $115,000. He showed two plus-plus pitches while reaching Double-A and going 10-1, 2.48 in his first full pro season.

 

McNutt has a 92-98 mph fastball, and though it could use more downward plane, he can blow it by hitters up in the strike zone. He had a power breaking ball that resembles a slider more than a curve, diving down and in on lefthanders when it's at its best. He doesn't use his changeup much, but his arm action is promising.

 

McNutt can lapse into being more of a thrower than pitcher. He'll overthrow and lose command at times, and he needs to learn to add and subtract from his pitches more often. At worst, though, he already has the stuff to become a closer.

 

13. Hak-Ju Lee, ss, Peoria Chiefs (Cubs)

Age: 19. B-T: L-R. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 170. Signed: South Korea, '08.

 

With Franklin projecting as a second baseman, scouts tabbed Lee as the MWL's best shortstop prospect. However, some of them said they expected more polish after he ranked as the short-season Northwest League's No. 1 prospect a year ago and was billed as having four plus tools.

 

Lee's best attribute is his speed, which grades as a 65-70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. He's even quicker down the line because he uses a jailbreak approach and races out of the box a la Ichiro Suzuki. He also has an above-average arm, though he doesn't always show it because he flips too many throws to first base.

 

Lee has a more aggressive approach than most Asian hitters. He has a quick bat and can turn on some pitches, though he spins off some balls and needs to realize power really isn't his game. He doesn't always read balls well in the field and can get sloppy defensively, which resulted in 34 errors in 118 games.

[davell]

The writeup on McNutt sounds very promising, Lee's was just kind of averagish, if you ask me.

 

Lee seems to me like a guy who'll eventually be our leadoff hitter though. Just gotta wonder if it's jumping the gun to say he's going to push Castro off SS. If not, maybe we see Lee move to CF possibly?(B Jax to RF)

 

Another thing we have to wonder about is this: Maybe the reason the Cubs haven't appeared all that eager to put Cashner in the major league rotation is because Archer and McNutt are pretty close themselves? Do they think MORE of McNutt and Archer than they do Cashner as far as being a starter goes?

 

This league was loaded, at any rate, so I'll be very interested to see what Callis had to say about any of our other guys.......

[toonsterwu]

Thanks for the answers Nate.

 

As to the rankings, I respect both of them. I thought they would have a wider gap between McNutt and Miller/Turner. This is fair. I like McNutt and think he could end up being better than both, but this is fine. The report makes him sound like a future ace if the changeup comes along.

 

As for Lee, I respect the ranking. I haven't been as high on Lee as some (and I got blasted last year on other sites for even remotely suggesting that Castro might be hard to move off short if he "owns" the position, and suggested that Lee might be a CF idea ... still think it might be possible, even though Lee's defense is clearly a notch better), and considering how much offensive and defensive work is needed, I think it's fair.

 

If I had to pick a "2nd baseman of the future" right now, I'd go Cerda. Like him that much. I think the reason people "slept" on Cerda, including myself, was because of how he failed as a catcher.

[TruffleShuffle]

he really needs to get stronger. get him on beefcake 3000 in the offseason.

[Guest]

Chat:

 

Shane (Miami): Jim, There's no question the MWL was stacked this year. In your opinion, would any of the 5-8 (or more) beat out Singleton in the SAL? If so, which ones for you?

 

Jim Callis: Hadn't thought about it that way, but yes, I would take the top five MWL prospects (Trout, Miller, Myers, Turner, Hicks) over Singleton. I'd think about taking Franklin, McNutt and Odorizzi over him also.

 

Kim (Seoul): DO you think Hak-ju Lee to make BA Top 100 list? I wonder no.13 in this league is pessimistic. Well, what do you think his range at short-stop and will he does push starlin castro to second base at big league? Thank you Jim, I should prove him to qualify Team Korea for his military service.

 

Jim Callis: He was another guy who people liked as a prospect but expected more from. His range is fine at shortstop, but scouts didn't think he'd push Castro to second base. I don't think he's a Top 100 guy right now.

 

Miller (Vegas): McNutt ranked ahead of Lee for the Cubs...does this say more about McNutt's jump or have Lee taken a step back?

 

Jim Callis: More about McNutt. Some guys thought he had two 70 pitches on the 20-80 scouting scale in his fastball and breaking ball.

[toonsterwu]

ouch ... not top 100 and won't push Castro? I know they keep trying to say that they aren't down on him ... but geesh ... that's harsh, even for me.

[ChiefsVoice]

best defensive shortstop I've ever seen at this level. On any team. He could play SS in the Majors right now. Remember BA only sees him 1-2 times a season. Everything else is just word of mouth.

[davell]

Well, I guess we better be prepared to only have 3 top 100 guys this year from BA. Not that it matters honestly. A couple of months ago, Frankie Piliere had Lee at 23 overall anyway on his list.

[davell]

Mainly though, I wish they had answered Raisin's question. I don't think we've gotten any scouting news on Ha, other than a few things from AZPhil.......

[craig]

Thanks for posting all this stuff. And Nate, thanks a ton for your reports. You see them all season long, so your observations mean a lot.

 

By the way, what do you think of Whitesides as a prospect? He seemed so blah at first, but then was really effective over his last couple of months at Peora, and then again at Daytona. What changed? And is he for real?

 

As cal shared, I hope the notion that Antigua and Jung shoulders are or will be fine proves true. Those are too meaningful prospects, I think. Still, I'm not sure how often guys who have sore shoulders don't have something wrong inside, and it gets them later if not sooner....

 

As cal noted, at catcher Cerda's offense would have looked pretty intriguing. I hope he can progress as a hitter. I appreciate your observations and am pleasantly surprised that you like Cerda so well as a defensive 2B. I'd wondered whether he was short on quickness and range at 2B, and might have a max ceiling as still sub-par defensively compared to big-league 2B's. Does he have much untapped room to grow and get stronger? My impression is that he's already something of a workout warrior and may not have a lot more room to get stronger. Wrong? That he's not going to hit 20 HR's, that's a given. But there is a big difference between 3 and 13. A good OBP contact-hitting 2B who can get to 8-13 HR's is quite different then somebody more in the Theriot ballpark.

[JeffH]

Thanks for posting all this stuff. And Nate, thanks a ton for your reports. You see them all season long, so your observations mean a lot.

 

By the way, what do you think of Whitesides as a prospect? He seemed so blah at first, but then was really effective over his last couple of months at Peora, and then again at Daytona. What changed? And is he for real?

 

As cal shared, I hope the notion that Antigua and Jung shoulders are or will be fine proves true. Those are too meaningful prospects, I think. Still, I'm not sure how often guys who have sore shoulders don't have something wrong inside, and it gets them later if not sooner....

 

As cal noted, at catcher Cerda's offense would have looked pretty intriguing. I hope he can progress as a hitter. I appreciate your observations and am pleasantly surprised that you like Cerda so well as a defensive 2B. I'd wondered whether he was short on quickness and range at 2B, and might have a max ceiling as still sub-par defensively compared to big-league 2B's. Does he have much untapped room to grow and get stronger? My impression is that he's already something of a workout warrior and may not have a lot more room to get stronger. Wrong? That he's not going to hit 20 HR's, that's a given. But there is a big difference between 3 and 13. A good OBP contact-hitting 2B who can get to 8-13 HR's is quite different then somebody more in the Theriot ballpark.

 

Whitenack.