Yu Darvish

[CaliforniaRaisin]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/09/rosenthal-on-towers.html

 

A source tells Rosenthal that Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish is highly likely to be posted this offseason. The Yankees, unsurprisingly, are keeping close watch on the righthander. One scout says that he doesn't see the 24-year-old as being much more than a No. 3 starter. The ball in Japan is smaller, starters only work once a week, and as we've seen the transition for those starters can be very problematic.

 

We'll see how good Rosenthal's source really is; I had gotten the impression this wasn't going to happen for a few more years. I can't imagine the Cubs will be involved, especially since they view Fukudome as a high-priced disappointment.

[Tarver]

Still young, but it's remarkable how much this guy's stock has fallen.

[chuckywang]

Wasn't he called the best pitcher in the world a couple years ago? He also made a big splash at the WBC.

[fromthestretch]

Wasn't he called the best pitcher in the world a couple years ago? He also made a big splash at the WBC.

 

Not quite sure what he's done to lower his stock. He just posted his fourth straight season with a sub-2.00 ERA, and I believe he had a career best K/9 this season. His home run rate is also ridiculously low.

[Cubswin11]

I wasn't aware they used a smaller baseball in Japan.

[Guest]

Wasn't he called the best pitcher in the world a couple years ago? He also made a big splash at the WBC.

 

Not quite sure what he's done to lower his stock. He just posted his fourth straight season with a sub-2.00 ERA, and I believe he had a career best K/9 this season. His home run rate is also ridiculously low.

 

I was going to say - he has done nothing to lower his stock. The only thing I can think of is that MLB teams aren't as enamored with Japanese pitchers in the majors as a whole.

[shnsajax]

Wasn't he called the best pitcher in the world a couple years ago? He also made a big splash at the WBC.

 

Not quite sure what he's done to lower his stock. He just posted his fourth straight season with a sub-2.00 ERA, and I believe he had a career best K/9 this season. His home run rate is also ridiculously low.

 

I was going to say - he has done nothing to lower his stock. The only thing I can think of is that MLB teams aren't as enamored with Japanese pitchers in the majors as a whole.

 

Or paying a massive posting fee before being able to sign him.

[Guest]

Wasn't he called the best pitcher in the world a couple years ago? He also made a big splash at the WBC.

 

Not quite sure what he's done to lower his stock. He just posted his fourth straight season with a sub-2.00 ERA, and I believe he had a career best K/9 this season. His home run rate is also ridiculously low.

 

I was going to say - he has done nothing to lower his stock. The only thing I can think of is that MLB teams aren't as enamored with Japanese pitchers in the majors as a whole.

It was his boy bandesque website that lowered his stock.

[ELCABALLO45]

I wasn't aware they used a smaller baseball in Japan.

[shnsajax]

Darvish said that he is planning on staying in Japan for another year. This is probably good for the Cubs if they want to make a run at him.

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/baseball/mlb/10/19/japan.darvish.ap/index.html?eref=sircrc

[Northside Blues]

You'd think teams would have learned from their mistakes about giving guys like Fukudome and Matsuzaka large contracts. I am not saying there won't be one to live up to it again, but that's a lot of risk tied up in a large investment and the reward isn't all that higher than spending the same amount of cash on a similar MLB proven player.

[NewUserName]

You'd think teams would have learned from their mistakes about giving guys like Fukudome and Matsuzaka large contracts. I am not saying there won't be one to live up to it again, but that's a lot of risk tied up in a large investment and the reward isn't all that higher than spending the same amount of cash on a similar MLB proven player.

 

Is Fukudome overpaid?

[Clem Fandango]

You'd think teams would have learned from their mistakes about giving guys like Fukudome and Matsuzaka large contracts. I am not saying there won't be one to live up to it again, but that's a lot of risk tied up in a large investment and the reward isn't all that higher than spending the same amount of cash on a similar MLB proven player.

 

Is Fukudome overpaid?

 

I think he's more or less broke even, give or take.

 

But really in the history of Pacific rimmers playing in the major leagues at an all-star level consistently, really Ichiro and Hideki Matsui are the only ones worthy of mentioning that I can think of. Maybe you could toss Hideo Nomo and Takashi Saito in there, too.

 

The ratio of successful vs. unsuccessful players who came from the pacific rim is staggeringly in favor of the unsuccessful

[chopsx9]

You'd think teams would have learned from their mistakes about giving guys like Fukudome and Matsuzaka large contracts. I am not saying there won't be one to live up to it again, but that's a lot of risk tied up in a large investment and the reward isn't all that higher than spending the same amount of cash on a similar MLB proven player.

 

Is Fukudome overpaid?

 

Yes.

[Sammy Sofa]

You'd think teams would have learned from their mistakes about giving guys like Fukudome and Matsuzaka large contracts. I am not saying there won't be one to live up to it again, but that's a lot of risk tied up in a large investment and the reward isn't all that higher than spending the same amount of cash on a similar MLB proven player.

 

Is Fukudome overpaid?

 

Yes.

 

Yes and no.

[chopsx9]

You'd think teams would have learned from their mistakes about giving guys like Fukudome and Matsuzaka large contracts. I am not saying there won't be one to live up to it again, but that's a lot of risk tied up in a large investment and the reward isn't all that higher than spending the same amount of cash on a similar MLB proven player.

 

Is Fukudome overpaid?

 

Yes.

 

Yes and no.

 

but mostly...Yes :D

[Sammy Sofa]

Depends.

 

He was overpaid in that one could argue that the Cubs should have or could have spent the money better, but in terms of the production received thus far he's effectively breaking even.

[davell]

Fukudome has been solid for us as far as I'm concerned, but I do remember thinking back when we signed him, he was going to be more of a middle of the order type hitter. Rightly or wrongly, I can justify spending more on that type than I can a top of the order type guy, which I consider Fukudome to be. Is he overpaid? Hell, I don't even know, but I did expect a slightly different ballplayer than what we go anyway. And I think the Cubs did as well.

[Sammy Sofa]

That seems to be the Cubs' MO too often. Both Fukudome and Bradley would have been better suited as being slotted as #2 hitters from the get go, but the inexplicably looked at both of them as being #5 guys.

[chopsx9]

Depends.

 

He was overpaid in that one could argue that the Cubs should have or could have spent the money better, but in terms of the production received thus far he's effectively breaking even.

 

 

I don't think both sides of that sentence can co-exist - it's a little late so forgive me if I am missing something.

 

I think if the second part is true the first can't be true - outside of a Carl Pavano or Aubrey Huff like situation; or a star rookie with little service time which he really shouldn't be compared to.

 

Would you rather have Dunn or Fukudome?

 

Adam Dunn has never, and may never, make as much as Fukudome did last year.

 

....and I am not suggesting that is definitive proof but it does show what the market will bear.

 

Is he closer in value to Marlon Byrd or Aramis Ramirez?

[Sammy Sofa]

Depends.

 

He was overpaid in that one could argue that the Cubs should have or could have spent the money better, but in terms of the production received thus far he's effectively breaking even.

 

 

I don't think both sides of that sentence can co-exist - it's a little late so forgive me if I am missing something.

 

It means that generally speaking, based on his production and his salary to this point Fukudome isn't really overpaid. Maybe a bit, but not significantly so. The former point means that the Cubs very well could have spent the money better based on their specific needs, but that doesn't actually mean that he's overpaid. That's a different issue from someone being overpaid; it means that at the time that the Cubs needed to spend that money on a different type of player from Fukudome, but that doesn't make him overpaid based on how he's produced. It means the Cubs didn't spend their money wisely.

[dew1679666265]

Adam Dunn has never, and may never, make as much as Fukudome did last year.

 

....and I am not suggesting that is definitive proof but it does show what the market will bear.

 

In 2008, Dunn made $13 million. Kosuke made $13 mil last year. Dunn also made $12 mil last year.

 

If I was looking for an outfielder, I'd strongly consider Kosuke over Dunn because of defense. If I had an opening at first, where I could minimize Dunn's horrid defense, I'd take Dunn in a heartbeat.

[dew1679666265]

It means that generally speaking, based on his production and his salary to this point Fukudome isn't really overpaid. Maybe a bit, but not significantly so. The former point means that the Cubs very well could have spent the money better based on their specific needs, but that doesn't actually mean that he's overpaid. That's a different issue from someone being overpaid; it means that at the time that the Cubs needed to spend that money on a different type of player from Fukudome, but that doesn't make him overpaid based on how he's produced. It means the Cubs didn't spend their money wisely.

 

Was the money not spent wisely on Kosuke? It wasn't a great move by any means, but they've been OBP starved for quite a while. They got a different player than they envisioned, but that doesn't mean adding a high-OBP, strong defensive player is spending money unwisely.

[chopsx9]

Adam Dunn has never, and may never, make as much as Fukudome did last year.

 

....and I am not suggesting that is definitive proof but it does show what the market will bear.

 

In 2008, Dunn made $13 million. Kosuke made $13 mil last year. Dunn also made $12 mil last year.

 

If I was looking for an outfielder, I'd strongly consider Kosuke over Dunn because of defense. If I had an opening at first, where I could minimize Dunn's horrid defense, I'd take Dunn in a heartbeat.

 

The list I saw had Fukudome at 14M for last year - but the point really was do you consider them equivalent players? I don't (and I'm not nearly the Dunn fan that some are)

 

Lets pretend Fukudome is a FA this year. Is there a team anywhere on the planet that is going to offer him $14M or 12M or 10M...?

[dew1679666265]

The list I saw had Fukudome at 14M for last year - but the point really was do you consider them equivalent players? I don't (and I'm not nearly the Dunn fan that some are)

 

Like I said, which one I'd prefer is dependent on what I need. The value between the two is really close if the only option is to play them in the outfield. If you can minimize Dunn's horrid defense, though, then he's the far superior player.

 

Lets pretend Fukudome is a FA this year. Is there a team anywhere on the planet that is going to offer him $14M or 12M or 10M...?

 

Perceived value isn't the best way to determine a player's real value. Kosuke's overpaid, I think I've said that already, but not by that much. A .370-.400 OBP with a mid-.400s slugging plus good defense is plenty worth $10 mil a year or more.

 

Kosuke's age and the preconceived notion that a corner OF must hit for a bunch of power to be valuable would decrease his contract this year. A team like the Red Sox would probably pick him up for a really good value.