Colvin to start taking grounders at 1B

[Outshined_One]

One thing worth keeping in mind regarding evaluating defense...

 

The fact of the matter is, in order for players to advance through amateur baseball, the minors, and into the majors, that player has to have some modicum of defensive ability. There's an enormous gulf between the quality of defense you see in little league games and in major league games. Even guys who are bad fielders in the majors still have enough experience and athleticism to play their positions better than what you see in little league, much less AAA.

 

Cripes, just take a look at UZR whipping boy Adam Dunn. The guy has defensive issues, but the fact of the matter is, he doesn't [expletive] his pants and cover his head any time a fly ball is hit in his direction. The vast majority of the time, he makes the plays he should make. He screws up more plays than the average major league defender, but you have to remember he's already playing on an elite defensive level. There's a difference between bad by comparison and just plain bad. The same goes for Ryan Braun, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, or any other defensively challenged guy out there.

 

Being a bad defender can be a substantial hindrance for a player's overall production, but I really think certain people are overrating it in this thread. Players can still be incredibly valuable despite their deficiencies.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

I think Colvin will be a serviceable major leaguer, there will be a slight increase in walks and slight decrease in strikeouts. If those 2 things happen it is not too unrealistic to see a .270/.330/.480 output from Tyler. I will take that from my 7th hitter, I just hope the Cubs do not consider his production as a guarrantee when putting together next years lineup. Acquiring a strong right handed bat as your 4th outfield would be a plus, do not put Colvin at 1B long term.

[Tracer Bullet]

One thing worth keeping in mind regarding evaluating defense...

 

The fact of the matter is, in order for players to advance through amateur baseball, the minors, and into the majors, that player has to have some modicum of defensive ability. There's an enormous gulf between the quality of defense you see in little league games and in major league games. Even guys who are bad fielders in the majors still have enough experience and athleticism to play their positions better than what you see in little league, much less AAA.

 

Cripes, just take a look at UZR whipping boy Adam Dunn. The guy has defensive issues, but the fact of the matter is, he doesn't [expletive] his pants and cover his head any time a fly ball is hit in his direction. The vast majority of the time, he makes the plays he should make. He screws up more plays than the average major league defender, but you have to remember he's already playing on an elite defensive level. There's a difference between bad by comparison and just plain bad. The same goes for Ryan Braun, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, or any other defensively challenged guy out there.

 

Being a bad defender can be a substantial hindrance for a player's overall production, but I really think certain people are overrating it in this thread. Players can still be incredibly valuable despite their deficiencies.

 

I think 2 of my tee-ball players this year were better defenders than Manny Ramirez.

[Soul]

There's an enormous gulf between the quality of defense you see in little league games and in major league games.

 

I feel like there's an enormous gulf just between the lower minors and the majors.

 

I'll admit I haven't watched a ton of minor league ball, but the games I've been to -- it has seemed quite noticeable the dropoff in basic defensive ability. And the guys who can defend at a higher level tend to stick out much more, too. At least that's been my observation.

[MSG T]

There's an enormous gulf between the quality of defense you see in little league games and in major league games.

 

I feel like there's an enormous gulf just between the lower minors and the majors.

 

I'll admit I haven't watched a ton of minor league ball, but the games I've been to -- it has seemed quite noticeable the dropoff in basic defensive ability. And the guys who can defend at a higher level tend to stick out much more, too. At least that's been my observation.

 

I agree, but you have to also take the low minors with a grain of salt when talking about defense. From the examples I've seen, the fields in the low minors suck. I got the chance to play on 3 different MiL field when I was in HS, and two of the three, Cedar Rapids and Clinton, were as bad as any I played on in HS. From the reports and discussions I've seen, there hasn't been a big change since then. That's part of the reason I'll somewhat ignore a guys errors if they're mostly fielding problems and not throwing. There's as big of a gulf in the quality of the infields as there is in fielding.

[Soul]

There's an enormous gulf between the quality of defense you see in little league games and in major league games.

 

I feel like there's an enormous gulf just between the lower minors and the majors.

 

I'll admit I haven't watched a ton of minor league ball, but the games I've been to -- it has seemed quite noticeable the dropoff in basic defensive ability. And the guys who can defend at a higher level tend to stick out much more, too. At least that's been my observation.

 

I agree, but you have to also take the low minors with a grain of salt when talking about defense. From the examples I've seen, the fields in the low minors suck. I got the chance to play on 3 different MiL field when I was in HS, and two of the three, Cedar Rapids and Clinton, were as bad as any I played on in HS. From the reports and discussions I've seen, there hasn't been a big change since then. That's part of the reason I'll somewhat ignore a guys errors if they're mostly fielding problems and not throwing. There's as big of a gulf in the quality of the infields as there is in fielding.

 

Good point.

[Tyrant]

Tyler Colvin has been intriguing to me based on the binary opposition of the fan base as it pertains to his future.

 

In reviewing his stats alone, it is easy to see why many fans who enjoy statistical analysis (I do) would be skeptical. His numbers are all over the place. His strikeout to walk ratio alone almost disqualifies him from ever being a significant ML contributor. There are a few players that compare favorably to Colvin in sample size, age and production that keep hin on the border of not "I'm not quite ready to give up on him". Larry Walker is a great example.

 

However, his swing tells me something different than his stats. Mechanically, Tyler is as sound as any hitter on the current Cub team, and vastly superior to many players around the league. I've often explained that the most important thing to a hitter is time. Time makes all the difference in the world. A fraction of a fraction of a second can make the difference between a dribbler down the 1B line and a 450ft line drive home run to left-center.

 

A hitter needs time to determine 3 things. Velocity, Location and Movement. The more time a hitter has to figure these 3 things out, the better he will be. The swing mechanics, and the mechanics prior to the swing are vital in increasing the time a hitter has to determine these 3 things. Tyler does not make any of the typical mistakes that ML hitters make. He doesn't drop his hands, or "hitch" (Corey Patterson). He doesn't have much vertical or horizontal movement of his upper or lower body perpendicular to the path of the ball. He doesn't have much horizontal movement parallel to the path of the ball. His load is quiet and well-timed. He gets great torque in his hip rotations without dragging his hands. His track to the ball is short and compact, and his track through the zone is generally pretty flat and the barrel of the bat stays in the zone for an appropriate amount of time. Again, his mechanics are pretty sound.

 

The only weak points I can see, which would be weak points with any tall hitter, is that his bat doesn't stay along the plane of the ball for very long. Since the strikezone is lower in relationship to his hands than a guy who is 6'1, the bat can't stay as flat. While tall hitters enjoy greater leverage, and the advantage of gravity assisting them on the downward plane through the strike zone, they can also be at a disadvantage if they stand upright. They can compensate for this disadvantage by being well-prepared, increasing strength and/or adjusting their stance to make them slightly lower to the ground. Widening your stance by 3 inches can lower the appropriate position of your hands by 1 to 2 inches. Doesn't sound like alot, but when you're adjusting for fractions of a second, a couple of inches is virtually a mile.

 

The other issue is his tendancy to drop his body slightly after the load and right before he swings. The problem here is that his head is moving. Tall hitters will do this in order to try to compensate for the fact that their swing is on too much of a downward plane through the strikezone. To a guy who is 6'3 or taller, a pitch in the lower part of the strikezone can take a swing similar to a golf swing. A tall hitter needs to be exponentially more accurate in order to make solid, level contact on a ball down in the zone.

 

Based on his current swing, I can't see any reason why he would have struggled the way he did in the minors. You can't teach a better swing than he has based on his body type. I'm beginning to wonder if added strength has been a factor in the sudden improvement. Everybody can talk all they want about the effect strength has on hitting, but it is enormous as long as everything else remains equal. If a guy with Colvin's frame adds just 15 pounds of muscle, the impact could be enormous. Because of the tall frame, he doesn't lose much flexibility or range of motion, but the added strength gives him additional time to determine Velocity, Location and Movement.

 

One thing I have noticed in comparing video from Colvin at Clemson to recent video is that he doesn't "wrap" the bat as much. This is when a hitter's bat wraps around his head during the load. At Clemson, his bat would almost be pointing at the pitcher prior the swing. Now, the bat has a more vertical position just before the swing. This can also make a huge difference as the bat has a shorter distance to travel prior to contact with the ball.

 

These are some general observations, as I do not have the time to review hours of video of Colvin. In summary, Colvin appears to have undergone some mechanical changes since college, which could have hurt him in terms of productivity while developing muscle memory, and he could have undergone some physical changes where added strength could easily account for offensive improvement.

 

In terms of mechanics, there is nothing in his swing that sends up a red flag. I'll take a mechanically sound hitter over a smart hitter all day long.

 

I'm not sure why people aren't discussing this angle more, but thanks for an interesting post. Do you think Colvin can leverage his quality mechanics into becoming a smarter, more patient hitter?

[jersey cubs fan]

David Kelton supposedly had an immaculate swing that should not be touched by coaches, and he sucked donkey balls.

[Sammy Sofa]

David Kelton supposedly had an immaculate swing that should not be touched by coaches, and he sucked donkey balls.

 

Yeah, there are tons of guys who have beautiful swings when they smack a home run and then look like complete morons the bulk of the time they're at the plate. I appreciate lumafia's well thought out analysis, but having a good swing doesn't seal the deal.

[Guest]

Colvin's shortcomings aren't physical or mechanical(unless you want to include him not being a good defensive CF), it's mental. His pitch recognition is what's going to keep him from being a regular, on both the lack of walks end and the too many strikeouts end.

[lumafia]

David Kelton supposedly had an immaculate swing that should not be touched by coaches, and he sucked donkey balls.

 

Yeah, there are tons of guys who have beautiful swings when they smack a home run and then look like complete morons the bulk of the time they're at the plate. I appreciate lumafia's well thought out analysis, but having a good swing doesn't seal the deal.

 

I never had an opportunity to review Kelton's swing in detail, so I couldn't agree or disagree with you.

 

You are correct. Having a good swing certainly does not "seal the deal". However, there are things that can be taught to a hitter at 23 years old, and there are things that cannot. A hitter can learn how to scout certain pitchers, what to expect in certain counts, how other teams are trying to get him out, etc, and try to make adjustments. Due to muscle memory, it is nearly impossible to change a hitter's mechanics at such a late age. You can make tiny improvements, but few of them can have the exponential effect that adding strength can have, for example. That's what makes the mechanics so important. The more sound the mechanics are, the more time a hitter has to account for velocity, movement and location. If the mechanics aren't sound, a hitter can know that a 98 mph heater is coming, and never touch it. Sound mechanics will trump the mental aspect of hitting.

 

The point of my original post was to merely to point out why, or how, Colvin's numbers have managed to improve from the minors until now. It seems that many people like to use his minor league splits in order to determine what level of success he will have at the ML level. My intention was to point out that there are other, non-statistical, factors that can be used in analyzing a hitter for the purposes of developing an idea how much success they will, or will not, have.

 

He does look lost in some AB's, but I would expect that of many young ML hitters. There are countless examples of good ML hitters who have struggled at times in their first 300 AB's. He was never going to lace them up on opening day and own this league. Hitters at the MLB level always improve with experience (everyday experience), unless they have some overwhelming mechanical, or physical (vision problems, health issues) issue that pitchers are able to exploit.

[lumafia]

Colvin's shortcomings aren't physical or mechanical(unless you want to include him not being a good defensive CF), it's mental. His pitch recognition is what's going to keep him from being a regular, on both the lack of walks end and the too many strikeouts end.

 

Pitch recognition is mechanical and physical. Eyesight allows for improved pitch recognition, and that is physical. Being able to find the release point and see the spin on the ball as it leaves the pitcher's hand IS pitch recognition. Good mechanics can allow more time for the hitter to determine velocity, location and movement, thus allowing him more time for pitch recognition. It takes a 90 MPH fastball .417 seconds to travel 55 feet (release point to hitting zone). It takes between .2 and .3 seconds for your eyes to send the message to your muscles to fire. Then, a very complex chain of events happens. If improved mechanical function can reduce that time, even by .009 of a second, there can be drastic improvement in the quality of contact.

 

Understanding what a pitcher is trying to do, advanced scouting, knowing the situation, experience against the pitcher, etc., will help him in developing a good "guessing game" as a hitter. That is the mental approach, and a vast majority of that is developed with experience and time.

[cubfan]

There's an enormous gulf between the quality of defense you see in little league games and in major league games.

 

I feel like there's an enormous gulf just between the lower minors and the majors.

 

I'll admit I haven't watched a ton of minor league ball, but the games I've been to -- it has seemed quite noticeable the dropoff in basic defensive ability. And the guys who can defend at a higher level tend to stick out much more, too. At least that's been my observation.

 

I agree, but you have to also take the low minors with a grain of salt when talking about defense. From the examples I've seen, the fields in the low minors suck. I got the chance to play on 3 different MiL field when I was in HS, and two of the three, Cedar Rapids and Clinton, were as bad as any I played on in HS. From the reports and discussions I've seen, there hasn't been a big change since then. That's part of the reason I'll somewhat ignore a guys errors if they're mostly fielding problems and not throwing. There's as big of a gulf in the quality of the infields as there is in fielding.

 

 

Maybe I just played on really bad HS fields, but I played a few games in Cedar Rapids (the new field) and several in Burlington and they were much better than the HS fields I played on.

[jersey cubs fan]

The point of my original post was to merely to point out why, or how, Colvin's numbers have managed to improve from the minors until now.

 

Except that really doesn't do that at all. He had a really interesting start to his career but he's been pretty terrible for a while now that he's been playing with more regularity. It was always a pretty safe bet to say Colvin would see a fair amount of playing time, but his numbers, .277/.320/.465 341k/105bb/1800PA in the minors indicate he's probably not going to be very good. His major league numbers, .247/.306/.487 90k/26bb/344PA show much of the same, with the lone exception of a few more HR than expected.

 

And I really don't see how his mechanics can be considered so pretty when he looks so clueless so frequently swinging at absolute garbage and missing by a mile.

[lumafia]

The point of my original post was to merely to point out why, or how, Colvin's numbers have managed to improve from the minors until now.

 

Except that really doesn't do that at all. He had a really interesting start to his career but he's been pretty terrible for a while now that he's been playing with more regularity. It was always a pretty safe bet to say Colvin would see a fair amount of playing time, but his numbers, .277/.320/.465 341k/105bb/1800PA in the minors indicate he's probably not going to be very good. His major league numbers, .247/.306/.487 90k/26bb/344PA show much of the same, with the lone exception of a few more HR than expected.

 

And I really don't see how his mechanics can be considered so pretty when he looks so clueless so frequently swinging at absolute garbage and missing by a mile.

 

How does an .815 OPS in his first full season in ML baseball mean that he's been "pretty terrible", when his minor league OPS was .785? He has clearly been better in 2010 as an everyday player than he was as an everyday minor league player. His K/BB ratio is a little worse since being in the ML, but that should be expected for a guy who hasn't even had 350 AB's in the ML.

 

As I stated in a previous post,

Having a good swing certainly does not "seal the deal".

. He has much more to learn, but the hardest part, sound mechanics, is the least of his worries. Maintaining, and improving upon, those mechanics will be the most vital component of his career. He's had 344 plate appearances in his first full season of ML baseball. It's not unusual for a young player to look awkward at times at the plate. He's going to get fooled, but his sound mechanics are allowing him to overcome some of those shortcomings.

 

For the 3rd time, I'm not saying that he will be an all-star or a hall of famer, I'm simply pointing out that mechanically, his 2010 swing is indicative of someone who should have had better minor league numbers. This would lead me to believe that he has made some mechanical improvements and/or added strength to account for the offensive improvements.

[Guest]

Colvin started playing much more regularly around mid-June, and has a .220/.280/.445/.725 line in 208 PA's since then. That's what jersey is referencing when he says he's been pretty terrible for a while now.

[MSG T]

The point of my original post was to merely to point out why, or how, Colvin's numbers have managed to improve from the minors until now.

 

Except that really doesn't do that at all. He had a really interesting start to his career but he's been pretty terrible for a while now that he's been playing with more regularity. It was always a pretty safe bet to say Colvin would see a fair amount of playing time, but his numbers, .277/.320/.465 341k/105bb/1800PA in the minors indicate he's probably not going to be very good. His major league numbers, .247/.306/.487 90k/26bb/344PA show much of the same, with the lone exception of a few more HR than expected.

 

And I really don't see how his mechanics can be considered so pretty when he looks so clueless so frequently swinging at absolute garbage and missing by a mile.

 

How does an .815 OPS in his first full season in ML baseball mean that he's been "pretty terrible", when his minor league OPS was .785? He has clearly been better in 2010 as an everyday player than he was as an everyday minor league player. His K/BB ratio is a little worse since being in the ML, but that should be expected for a guy who hasn't even had 350 AB's in the ML.

 

As I stated in a previous post,

Having a good swing certainly does not "seal the deal".

. He has much more to learn, but the hardest part, sound mechanics, is the least of his worries. Maintaining, and improving upon, those mechanics will be the most vital component of his career. He's had 344 plate appearances in his first full season of ML baseball. It's not unusual for a young player to look awkward at times at the plate. He's going to get fooled, but his sound mechanics are allowing him to overcome some of those shortcomings.

 

For the 3rd time, I'm not saying that he will be an all-star or a hall of famer, I'm simply pointing out that mechanically, his 2010 swing is indicative of someone who should have had better minor league numbers. This would lead me to believe that he has made some mechanical improvements and/or added strength to account for the offensive improvements.

 

He said he's been terrible for a while now, not the whole season. He was very good through May.

 

As for " How does an .815 OPS in his first full season mean he's been pretty terrible", I'd say at least some of it is luck and small sample size. He's been regressing pretty substantially the last 2-3 months. If he can hold on this year, then put up similar numbers in coming years, then you'd have a point. If he continues his downward spiral this year, and is as bad or worse next year, I'd be leaning towards the terrible tag. He hasn't shown, during his time in the minors, any reason to expect .815 OPS in the majors. He has shown that he can be counted on to hit for decent power, not walk much and strike out a lot. When you're doing that in the minors, it doesn't suggest success in the majors unless you correct a few things, particularly plate discipline. Unless he corrects some pretty major flaws there, he'll never amount to anything in the majors.

[jersey cubs fan]

How does an .815 OPS in his first full season in ML baseball mean that he's been "pretty terrible", when his minor league OPS was .785?

 

I said for a while. He's got a 670 OPS the last two weeks, 710 the last four weeks. He's got a .305 OBP in the 2nd half and it's just 310 overall. His pretty crappy performance has been masked by an unusual high number of HR. That props up his SLG, the lesser of the two parts of OPS, making his numbers actually worse than they are.

[lumafia]

The point of my original post was to merely to point out why, or how, Colvin's numbers have managed to improve from the minors until now.

 

Except that really doesn't do that at all. He had a really interesting start to his career but he's been pretty terrible for a while now that he's been playing with more regularity. It was always a pretty safe bet to say Colvin would see a fair amount of playing time, but his numbers, .277/.320/.465 341k/105bb/1800PA in the minors indicate he's probably not going to be very good. His major league numbers, .247/.306/.487 90k/26bb/344PA show much of the same, with the lone exception of a few more HR than expected.

 

And I really don't see how his mechanics can be considered so pretty when he looks so clueless so frequently swinging at absolute garbage and missing by a mile.

 

How does an .815 OPS in his first full season in ML baseball mean that he's been "pretty terrible", when his minor league OPS was .785? He has clearly been better in 2010 as an everyday player than he was as an everyday minor league player. His K/BB ratio is a little worse since being in the ML, but that should be expected for a guy who hasn't even had 350 AB's in the ML.

 

As I stated in a previous post,

Having a good swing certainly does not "seal the deal".

. He has much more to learn, but the hardest part, sound mechanics, is the least of his worries. Maintaining, and improving upon, those mechanics will be the most vital component of his career. He's had 344 plate appearances in his first full season of ML baseball. It's not unusual for a young player to look awkward at times at the plate. He's going to get fooled, but his sound mechanics are allowing him to overcome some of those shortcomings.

 

For the 3rd time, I'm not saying that he will be an all-star or a hall of famer, I'm simply pointing out that mechanically, his 2010 swing is indicative of someone who should have had better minor league numbers. This would lead me to believe that he has made some mechanical improvements and/or added strength to account for the offensive improvements.

 

He said he's been terrible for a while now, not the whole season. He was very good through May.

 

As for " How does an .815 OPS in his first full season mean he's been pretty terrible", I'd say at least some of it is luck and small sample size. He's been regressing pretty substantially the last 2-3 months. If he can hold on this year, then put up similar numbers in coming years, then you'd have a point.

 

I never made a point. I was making observations. Colvin has a sound mechanical swing. This means he has less to overcome than hitters with swings that aren't as mechanically sound. If he is able to improve the "mental" side of the game, he could have a productive career. That's a big "if", but not bigger than the mechanical "if's".

[jersey cubs fan]

I never made a point. I was making observations. Colvin has a sound mechanical swing. This means he has less to overcome than hitters with swings that aren't as mechanically sound. If he is able to improve the "mental" side of the game, he could have a productive career. That's a big "if", but not bigger than the mechanical "if's".

 

What evidence do you have to support your claim? He looks pretty doing poorly? Why is that better than looking awkward doing well? His fatal flaw, high strikeouts with no walking, has proven to be a very difficult hurdle for hitters to overcome.

[lumafia]

I never made a point. I was making observations. Colvin has a sound mechanical swing. This means he has less to overcome than hitters with swings that aren't as mechanically sound. If he is able to improve the "mental" side of the game, he could have a productive career. That's a big "if", but not bigger than the mechanical "if's".

 

What evidence do you have to support your claim? He looks pretty doing poorly? Why is that better than looking awkward doing well? His fatal flaw, high strikeouts with no walking, has proven to be a very difficult hurdle for hitters to overcome.

 

To which claim are your referring? That his swing is mechanically sound? I thought I explained that in my original post.

 

claim: an assertion of something as a fact

observation: an act or instance of noticing or perceiving.

 

Hitters don't look awkward and do well. A hitter can look awkward prior to the swing, but in order for a hitter to have prolonged success at the ML level, they HAVE to be mechanically sound from the moment there hands fire to the point of contact. Whatever happens prior to the load and after contact, is irrelevant.

[jersey cubs fan]

I never made a point. I was making observations. Colvin has a sound mechanical swing. This means he has less to overcome than hitters with swings that aren't as mechanically sound. If he is able to improve the "mental" side of the game, he could have a productive career. That's a big "if", but not bigger than the mechanical "if's".

 

What evidence do you have to support your claim? He looks pretty doing poorly? Why is that better than looking awkward doing well? His fatal flaw, high strikeouts with no walking, has proven to be a very difficult hurdle for hitters to overcome.

 

To which claim are your referring? That his swing is mechanically sound? I thought I explained that in my original post.

 

claim: an assertion of something as a fact

observation: an act or instance of noticing or perceiving.

 

Hitters don't look awkward and do well. A hitter can look awkward prior to the swing, but in order for a hitter to have prolonged success at the ML level, they HAVE to be mechanically sound from the moment there hands fire to the point of contact. Whatever happens prior to the load and after contact, is irrelevant.

 

Your claim that he has less to overcome than hitters who are less mechanically sound. He has a lot to overcome, not as much as some raw single A shmoe, but that's kind of pointless.

[lumafia]

I never made a point. I was making observations. Colvin has a sound mechanical swing. This means he has less to overcome than hitters with swings that aren't as mechanically sound. If he is able to improve the "mental" side of the game, he could have a productive career. That's a big "if", but not bigger than the mechanical "if's".

 

What evidence do you have to support your claim? He looks pretty doing poorly? Why is that better than looking awkward doing well? His fatal flaw, high strikeouts with no walking, has proven to be a very difficult hurdle for hitters to overcome.

 

I agree it is a very difficult hurdle to overcome. I mentioned that in my first post on this subject. It almost exclusively eliminates hitters from being considered long-term ML performers.

 

However, while it is difficult to overcome, it is not impossible. Typically, players with high K/BB ratios have mechanical problems. A great example is Corey Patterson. I posted many years ago as Corey was coming into MLB a similar post. I explained how Corey had a "hitch" in his swing during the load. When he picked his leg up (which was too high, by the way) he actually dropped his hands slightly before moving them up and back. This caused a very slight delay that reduced the amount of time Corey had between recognition of the pitch and actually firing his hands. I explained at the time that this was a mechanical issue that could be corrected, and if it wasn't, he would have a very un-spectacular career. Corey is still a servicable OF and has put up decent numbers this year, and in a couple of years after he left Chicago. He experienced gradual improvement over his first few years due to experience and knowledge, but once he had a decent year, the league re-adjusted to him. At that point, it was difficult for him to recover. He has been decent at times since then, but despite the fact that he has unbelievable physical gifts, his mechanical flaws hurt his ability to maximize those gifts.

 

That's just one example. If you want to try to find that post, I was posting under either mafia3512 or lumafia35. I don't remember my login info from that long ago, or I would find some of those posts myself.

[lumafia]

I never made a point. I was making observations. Colvin has a sound mechanical swing. This means he has less to overcome than hitters with swings that aren't as mechanically sound. If he is able to improve the "mental" side of the game, he could have a productive career. That's a big "if", but not bigger than the mechanical "if's".

 

What evidence do you have to support your claim? He looks pretty doing poorly? Why is that better than looking awkward doing well? His fatal flaw, high strikeouts with no walking, has proven to be a very difficult hurdle for hitters to overcome.

 

To which claim are your referring? That his swing is mechanically sound? I thought I explained that in my original post.

 

claim: an assertion of something as a fact

observation: an act or instance of noticing or perceiving.

 

Hitters don't look awkward and do well. A hitter can look awkward prior to the swing, but in order for a hitter to have prolonged success at the ML level, they HAVE to be mechanically sound from the moment there hands fire to the point of contact. Whatever happens prior to the load and after contact, is irrelevant.

 

Your claim that he has less to overcome than hitters who are less mechanically sound. He has a lot to overcome, not as much as some raw single A shmoe, but that's kind of pointless.

 

Again, something I explained in a previous post. It is based on the time it takes for a pitch to get to the hitting zone out of a pitcher's hands. There is a tiny amount of time for a hitter to decide the velocity, location and movement of that pitch, and the longer it takes a hitter to get the barrel of the bat to the ball, the less time the hitter has to decide whether or not to swing, and where to swing. It is easier to learn what pitchers throw in certain counts, what a team is trying to do to get you out, what pitchers throw in certain situations, what pitches they are having sucess with in that particular game, what pitches you have struggled with during the game, what pitches you have struggled with in your career, etc. etc., than it is to change something that you have been doing for 10 or 12 years.

 

Hitters succumb to something called "muscle memory" throughout the course of their lives. This can either be a tremendous weapon, or the ultimate villain for a hitter. Muscle memory is when a movement is repeated over a long period of time, the muscles will actually store that motion where the action can be recreated without conscious effort. Some refer to it as motor memory, motor learning, etc. It is quite difficult to change this memory once the body has been doing it for an extended period of time.

 

The better the mechanics, the better the muscle memory. There is less to "undo". If a hitter is having to think about all of the situations pertaining to the given pitch in a given at-bat, along with having to "consciously" swing, they are going to fail miserably based on the limited amount of time the brain has to send all of those signals to all of those different muscles.

[jersey cubs fan]

I know how hitting works. It doesn't change the fact that he has a huge problem with making a whole bunch of outs rather frequently and not walking. He turns 25 in a couple weeks with all sorts of big time college and professional experience and it's still a major problem. His perfect mechanics hasn't come close to getting him past the hurdle that was always going to be the biggest obstacle to him being a quality major league hitter.