Hendry NOT looking to rebuild Cubs

[Guest]

And the Cubs never paid Neifi 6M a year

The total of Neifi's contract is equal to what Gonzalez' base salary is for 2011. I was wrong about that.

[Guest]

Holliday didn't buy out any free agency years before he was traded, it was signed so Colorado didn't need to worry about haggling with him that offseason. He was traded in the offseason as a guy who was going to free agency after 2009, just like Gonzalez is this offseason.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

So who doesn't know what they are talking about?

 

 

Probably the guy who considers an extension signed in January to be right before a trade made in November.

 

And the Cubs never paid Neifi 6M a year

Show me where I said "right before". I said "before". He was making more than double what Gonzalez was making for the final year of his deal, which doesn't qualify him for this discussion. Even the small market teams can get in on the bidding for Gonzalez at 6m, and each that considers going after him will be doing so with the intention of signing him to a long term deal, more than likely.

 

I amended my post to better respond to what you said.

 

If a small market team is out of the running for Holliday because he makes 13.5M/Y:

 

A) How did the A's trade for him?

 

B) How would they be able to sign Gonzalez to a long-term deal which would surely be worth more than 13.5M/Y

[Guest]

Holliday didn't buy out any free agency years before he was traded, it was signed so Colorado didn't need to worry about haggling with him that offseason. He was traded in the offseason as a guy who was going to free agency after 2009, just like Gonzalez is this offseason.

 

Agreed. However, Holliday isn't a bargain at 13.5m. Gonzalez is a huge bargain at 6m. A team isn't going to give up monster talent for Holliday when he's already getting big dollars.

 

There is no incentive for the Padres to move Gonzalez this offseason unless a team really wants to wow them. They are coming off a successful season that might still land them into the playoffs. The fans know Gonzalez is dirt cheap for 2011. They have no reason to move him at the beginning of the season. That they probably won't be in the playoff hunt in July of next year, however, will be incentive to move him. And he will probably still cost someone Teixeira type trade talent.

[KingCubsFan]

It's pretty much market value for their expected production. The outfield cost, that is.

What market is this? I can't see Fukudome, Soriano and Byrd getting anything close to $37 million combined on the free agent market.

 

The Cubs have gotten about 10 WAR so far this season from their outfield, Soriano, Fukudome, Byrd, and Colvin. Nady's there too but he's a small negative so it's irrelevant. The market value of a win has been a little over 4 million, so when you figure how much they add the remaining 1/4 of the season, it probably balances out the regression for next year.

 

The main moral of the story here is that Soriano has been better than people give him credit for, and Byrd has been awesome this year.

I understand the reasoning, but I think it's pretty safe to assume GM's aren't pricing free agents based on WAR. And I bet there are teams spending a lot less money to get 10 WAR from their outfield this year. So while statistically we may not be overpaying, I still think, realistically, the outfield is extremely overpriced. With the way the free agent market is today, I can't see our outfield being worth more than $20 million.

[Guest]

If a small market team is out of the running for Holliday because he makes 13.5M/Y:

 

A) How did the A's trade for him?

 

B) How would they be able to sign Gonzalez to a long-term deal which would surely be worth more than 13.5M/Y

 

I never said small market teams were out of the running for a Holliday type contract. I said that even small market teams can offer up great talent for 1 year of Gonzalez at 6m, so if the Padres make him available, there will be a lot of suitors coming to call, which ups the price. Of course a small market team can afford Holliday at 13m. However, as soon as Oakland was out of the race, they dumped him for whatever they could get in return. Not a bad gamble for Oakland. You are supposed to go into a new season with the intention of winning.

 

The Padres can afford a long term deal. I already explained how the Padres payroll was nearly 40m higher than this year only 2 seasons ago. Chris Young will be off the books, which is another 6.25-8.5m, which gives the Padres plenty of room to offer up enough to keep Gonzalez for a very long time. Just like Minnesota did with Mauer.

[Guest]

It's pretty much market value for their expected production. The outfield cost, that is.

What market is this? I can't see Fukudome, Soriano and Byrd getting anything close to $37 million combined on the free agent market.

 

The Cubs have gotten about 10 WAR so far this season from their outfield, Soriano, Fukudome, Byrd, and Colvin. Nady's there too but he's a small negative so it's irrelevant. The market value of a win has been a little over 4 million, so when you figure how much they add the remaining 1/4 of the season, it probably balances out the regression for next year.

 

The main moral of the story here is that Soriano has been better than people give him credit for, and Byrd has been awesome this year.

I understand the reasoning, but I think it's pretty safe to assume GM's aren't pricing free agents based on WAR. And I bet there are teams spending a lot less money to get 10 WAR from their outfield this year. So while statistically we may not be overpaying, I still think, realistically, the outfield is extremely overpriced. With the way the free agent market is today, I can't see our outfield being worth more than $20 million.

 

I think you would be surprised.

[Guest]

It's pretty much market value for their expected production. The outfield cost, that is.

What market is this? I can't see Fukudome, Soriano and Byrd getting anything close to $37 million combined on the free agent market.

 

The Cubs have gotten about 10 WAR so far this season from their outfield, Soriano, Fukudome, Byrd, and Colvin. Nady's there too but he's a small negative so it's irrelevant. The market value of a win has been a little over 4 million, so when you figure how much they add the remaining 1/4 of the season, it probably balances out the regression for next year.

 

The main moral of the story here is that Soriano has been better than people give him credit for, and Byrd has been awesome this year.

I understand the reasoning, but I think it's pretty safe to assume GM's aren't pricing free agents based on WAR. And I bet there are teams spending a lot less money to get 10 WAR from their outfield this year. So while statistically we may not be overpaying, I still think, realistically, the outfield is extremely overpriced. With the way the free agent market is today, I can't see our outfield being worth more than $20 million.

 

The Cubs outfield wouldn't be so overpriced if Fukudome went through the minors like most players do. He would only be in his 3rd year in the bigs, which would make him a lot cheaper. The Cubs overpaid to get what they thought would be an all star caliber RF and he hasn't quite lived up to his contract. Sure, it's overpriced compared to other teams, but sometimes you have to overpay to get what you want. Maybe in a few years they will be getting an equal level of talent for dirt cheap if they can graduate some kids from the minors. That's another reason the Cubs were forced to overpay. The lack of ability to develop cheap talent position players.

[jersey cubs fan]

It's pretty much market value for their expected production. The outfield cost, that is.

What market is this? I can't see Fukudome, Soriano and Byrd getting anything close to $37 million combined on the free agent market.

 

The Cubs have gotten about 10 WAR so far this season from their outfield, Soriano, Fukudome, Byrd, and Colvin. Nady's there too but he's a small negative so it's irrelevant. The market value of a win has been a little over 4 million, so when you figure how much they add the remaining 1/4 of the season, it probably balances out the regression for next year.

 

The main moral of the story here is that Soriano has been better than people give him credit for, and Byrd has been awesome this year.

I understand the reasoning, but I think it's pretty safe to assume GM's aren't pricing free agents based on WAR. And I bet there are teams spending a lot less money to get 10 WAR from their outfield this year. So while statistically we may not be overpaying, I still think, realistically, the outfield is extremely overpriced. With the way the free agent market is today, I can't see our outfield being worth more than $20 million.

 

I think you would be surprised.

 

They would not get $37m this offseason.

[Soul]

and he hasn't quite lived up to his contract.

 

Holy understatements Batman. :D

[jersey cubs fan]

and he hasn't quite lived up to his contract.

 

Holy understatements Batman. :D

 

It might help if he actually played, but it's not that much of an understatement.

[Guest]

I understand the reasoning, but I think it's pretty safe to assume GM's aren't pricing free agents based on WAR. And I bet there are teams spending a lot less money to get 10 WAR from their outfield this year. So while statistically we may not be overpaying, I still think, realistically, the outfield is extremely overpriced. With the way the free agent market is today, I can't see our outfield being worth more than $20 million.

 

I think you would be surprised.

 

They would not get $37m this offseason.

 

Mainly because they'd command long term deals. In a hypothetical where we're able to look at it year to year? Sure they would.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

I never said small market teams were out of the running for a Holliday type contract. I said that even small market teams can offer up great talent for 1 year of Gonzalez at 6m, so if the Padres make him available, there will be a lot of suitors coming to call, which ups the price. Of course a small market team can afford Holliday at 13m. However, as soon as Oakland was out of the race, they dumped him for whatever they could get in return. Not a bad gamble for Oakland. You are supposed to go into a new season with the intention of winning.

 

A 1 year salary isn't what's damaging to a small-market team, it's long-term commitments that are crippling. That and trading away cost-controlled players. Whether Gonzalez makes 6M or 13M doesn't make a lot of difference when it comes to how much a small-market team is willing to give up.

 

 

 

The Padres can afford a long term deal. I already explained how the Padres payroll was nearly 40m higher than this year only 2 seasons ago. Chris Young will be off the books, which is another 6.25-8.5m, which gives the Padres plenty of room to offer up enough to keep Gonzalez for a very long time. Just like Minnesota did with Mauer.

 

My reference of long term deal was your opinion that not only could small market teams afford Gonzalez next year (because he made 6M), but that they would be looking to extend him once they got him (for presumably 16M+/year) How is that one possible?

 

And what evidence is there that the new Padres ownership can committ to a higher payroll?

[Guest]

and he hasn't quite lived up to his contract.

 

Holy understatements Batman. :D

 

I was being nice. And with this team, it's actually rather difficult for me to do that lately.

[jersey cubs fan]

I understand the reasoning, but I think it's pretty safe to assume GM's aren't pricing free agents based on WAR. And I bet there are teams spending a lot less money to get 10 WAR from their outfield this year. So while statistically we may not be overpaying, I still think, realistically, the outfield is extremely overpriced. With the way the free agent market is today, I can't see our outfield being worth more than $20 million.

 

I think you would be surprised.

 

They would not get $37m this offseason.

 

Mainly because they'd command long term deals. In a hypothetical where we're able to look at it year to year? Sure they would.

 

There is no point in such a hypothetical.

[Guest]

We're talking about market value of a team's outfield, there isn't a practical example.

[jersey cubs fan]

And what evidence is there that the new Padres ownership can committ to a higher payroll?

 

What evidence is there they cannot? I don't see why SD can't sign him longterm. Maybe they would rather not and ultimately will not, but there's no reason they can't.

[jersey cubs fan]

We're talking about market value of a team's outfield, there isn't a practical example.

 

Other than what their contracts are and what they would otherwise get on the free agent market.

[Guest]

Sorry, market value for next year, not the life of whatever contract duration they would get in free agency.

[SouthSideRyan]

And what evidence is there that the new Padres ownership can committ to a higher payroll?

 

What evidence is there they cannot? I don't see why SD can't sign him longterm. Maybe they would rather not and ultimately will not, but there's no reason they can't.

 

Because Moorad bought the team in January of '09 and has shown no signs of being eager to raise payroll?

[KingCubsFan]

Sorry, market value for next year, not the life of whatever contract duration they would get in free agency.

One year deals or multi-year deals, I don't think it matters. The market for aging outfielders isn't very lucrative these days. I could see Byrd getting 10, Soriano 6-8, and Fukudome 3-4.

[Guest]

And what evidence is there that the new Padres ownership can committ to a higher payroll?

 

What evidence is there they cannot? I don't see why SD can't sign him longterm. Maybe they would rather not and ultimately will not, but there's no reason they can't.

 

I missed this particular question. I just went to ESPN's site and saw that the Padres have a very similar attendance this year to the White Sox at around 25,000 per game. The Sox have a payroll above 100m while the Padres are sitting at about 40m. Not sure how different the median price of a ticket is for Padres and White Sox, but I doubt it's more than double to see a White Sox game. The Padres haven't had a payroll this low or lower since 2001. They have since moved into a new stadium and now charge quite a bit more for tickets than they did in the old park. Over the last 11 years, they are averaging about 53m a year in payroll, which is 15m more than their payroll this year.

 

There is no reason why they can't is exactly the right answer.

[jersey cubs fan]

And what evidence is there that the new Padres ownership can committ to a higher payroll?

 

What evidence is there they cannot? I don't see why SD can't sign him longterm. Maybe they would rather not and ultimately will not, but there's no reason they can't.

 

Because Moorad bought the team in January of '09 and has shown no signs of being eager to raise payroll?

 

How does this prove they cannot commit to a higher payroll. As I said, they may choose not to, but more likely than not they can. There's been no good reason for them to up their payroll in his first year of ownership, but as the team's biggest draw approaches free agency, perhaps they will see fit.

[Guest]

And what evidence is there that the new Padres ownership can committ to a higher payroll?

 

What evidence is there they cannot? I don't see why SD can't sign him longterm. Maybe they would rather not and ultimately will not, but there's no reason they can't.

 

Because Moorad bought the team in January of '09 and has shown no signs of being eager to raise payroll?

 

How does this prove they cannot commit to a higher payroll. As I said, they may choose not to, but more likely than not they can. There's been no good reason for them to up their payroll in his first year of ownership, but as the team's biggest draw approaches free agency, perhaps they will see fit.

 

Any ideas how much a team like the Padres would draw from the luxury tax, which is actually supposed to be going up again soon?

 

Free money to throw at your star player?

[SouthSideRyan]

And what evidence is there that the new Padres ownership can committ to a higher payroll?

 

What evidence is there they cannot? I don't see why SD can't sign him longterm. Maybe they would rather not and ultimately will not, but there's no reason they can't.

 

I missed this particular question. I just went to ESPN's site and saw that the Padres have a very similar attendance this year to the White Sox at around 25,000 per game. The Sox have a payroll above 100m while the Padres are sitting at about 40m. Not sure how different the median price of a ticket is for Padres and White Sox, but I doubt it's more than double to see a White Sox game. The Padres haven't had a payroll this low or lower since 2001. They have since moved into a new stadium and now charge quite a bit more for tickets than they did in the old park. Over the last 11 years, they are averaging about 53m a year in payroll, which is 15m more than their payroll this year.

 

There is no reason why they can't is exactly the right answer.

 

Average ticket price is almost exactly half that of the White Sox. ($15.15 to $30.28)