Fox DFA'd by the A's

[Sammy Sofa]

I know you have a new player that you irrationally crush on nearly every week, but there's really no justification for the Cubs going out of their way to clear up a regular starting slot for him at this point in Colvin's career.

With the Cubs going nowhere fast this season, it sure seems to me that they would want to find out what they have in Colvin going into next season. That gives them plenty of justification to start him regularly over someone like Fukudome who only has one more year on his contract and will not be here long term. I'm still leaning toward the opinion that Colvin will eventually prove himself to be nothing more than a solid 4th outfielder, but the possibility of him succeeding as a starter sure appears better than it did prior to this season. I'm not willing to bet on his success based on a relatively small major league sample size, but I'm also not willing to dismiss him based on his minor league numbers. Why not let him start for an extended period of time and see what happens?

 

Because there's nowhere to start him. It makes no sense to bench Kosuke if you're trying to sell him and get any kind of a valuable return or not to have to pick up too much of his salary. It's not like Colvin won't get plenty of AB's in the meantime as the backup OF, and then if they do trade Kosuke he'll get plenty more platooning with Nady. There's simply no rush where the Cubs "have" to find out what they have in Colvin right now.

[CubColtPacer]

Is hitting 20 HRs in a season the only barometer for whether Colvin is a quality starting RF in the bigs? Seems to me he could hit 20 HRs every year in RF and still not be a net positive. Or are we assuming that if he develops the ability to hit 20 HRs, the other aspects (like not striking out every third AB or getting on base more than 30% of the time) will have also been fixed?

 

I'll be honest, I'm surprised at the power he's shown. I'm not sure he'll be able to match it going forward, but I'm less concerned about his ability to have sufficient power to play in the majors than I was before the season (not that I'm convinced). I'm more concerned about his ability to not strike out all the time and play passable defense for a guy that only his 20 HRs.

 

Great point. And I don't understand why people would assume that the power he's shown in the limited sample size of his time in the bigs would just carry over to a full season. If that's the case, then is his appallingly high strikeout ratio going to stretch out as well? His relatively limited defense is going to carry out over the whole season? LH pitchers having their way with him completely and totally? Why are some people acting like the power is the only thing that'll stick around? Well, the power would have to stick around and he'd need to have to keep hitting at these ridiculous levels all season to offset the liabilities he displays as a player. That's why his success as a starter is such a long shot despite what he's shown this season. That's why in a sane world it makes much more sense for him to be starting in the minors since he's yet to show down there that he can be a viable option as a starting OF. Production in a limited role as a part time player up here for a couple months doesn't just suddenly prove he's a good option to be starting over the Cubs current starters, especially when they're trying to shop one of them for a trade.

 

I don't think people are assuming his power is going to translate exactly. He's on a 40 home run pace over a full season and I haven't seen anybody expect numbers anywhere close to that.

 

And I would be quite happy if his defense he's shown so far translates over a full season. He's been very solid so far.

 

And of course he wouldn't have to hit nearly this well to be a fine option as a starter even if his defense was subpar (at least 100 points of OPS less and probably closer to 150 points would be fine).

 

Of course, the strikeout rate is a huge concern. He seems to be a little lucky in the BABIP department. His HR per FB percentage is also really high but the fact that his home runs so far have been hit a long way balances that out. And the small sample size rules all.

 

I agree that it's still too early to give him a spot. But he definitely is a good candidate at this point to be a full season 15-20 home run guy with potential up to 30 or so. His minor league numbers suggest he's a 15 home run player. The elbow injury affecting some of his power numbers in the minors, his 14 homers in 1/2 a season at Tenessee last year after rehabbing from that injury, his muscle gain, his 7 homers in 1/6 of a season this year, and the fact that he hits home runs that would be gone in most every park in the majors all suggest he could be more than that.

[Sammy Sofa]

I don't think people are assuming his power is going to translate exactly. He's on a 40 home run pace over a full season and I haven't seen anybody expect numbers anywhere close to that.

 

And I would be quite happy if his defense he's shown so far translates over a full season. He's been very solid so far.

 

Agree to disagree. I in no way think he's doomed to be a crappy defensive OF, but to this point it seems like he makes a lot of bad decisions out there and takes some really questionable routes to the ball too often. He's not hopeless, but that seems like it could be a problem stretched out over a whole season, especially if he's manning RF at Wrigley.

 

And of course he wouldn't have to hit nearly this well to be a fine option as a starter even if his defense was subpar (at least 100 points of OPS less and probably closer to 150 points would be fine).

 

Of course, the strikeout rate is a huge concern. He seems to be a little lucky in the BABIP department. His HR per FB percentage is also really high but the fact that his home runs so far have been hit a long way balances that out. And the small sample size rules all.

 

It's not just his defense he'd have to compensate for. The strikeout rate is one; the inability to hit LH is another.

 

I agree that it's still too early to give him a spot. But he definitely is a good candidate at this point to be a full season 15-20 home run guy with potential up to 30 or so.

 

Totally agree that he has some potential; just not that he's demonstrated enough potential to justify benching someone you're trying to trade and actually get a decent return on.

[Tracer Bullet]

Is hitting 20 HRs in a season the only barometer for whether Colvin is a quality starting RF in the bigs? Seems to me he could hit 20 HRs every year in RF and still not be a net positive. Or are we assuming that if he develops the ability to hit 20 HRs, the other aspects (like not striking out every third AB or getting on base more than 30% of the time) will have also been fixed?

 

I'll be honest, I'm surprised at the power he's shown. I'm not sure he'll be able to match it going forward, but I'm less concerned about his ability to have sufficient power to play in the majors than I was before the season (not that I'm convinced). I'm more concerned about his ability to not strike out all the time and play passable defense for a guy that only his 20 HRs.

 

Great point. And I don't understand why people would assume that the power he's shown in the limited sample size of his time in the bigs would just carry over to a full season. If that's the case, then is his appallingly high strikeout ratio going to stretch out as well? His relatively limited defense is going to carry out over the whole season? LH pitchers having their way with him completely and totally? Why are some people acting like the power is the only thing that'll stick around? Well, the power would have to stick around and he'd need to have to keep hitting at these ridiculous levels all season to offset the liabilities he displays as a player. That's why his success as a starter is such a long shot despite what he's shown this season. That's why in a sane world it makes much more sense for him to be starting in the minors since he's yet to show down there that he can be a viable option as a starting OF. Production in a limited role as a part time player up here for a couple months doesn't just suddenly prove he's a good option to be starting over the Cubs current starters, especially when they're trying to shop one of them for a trade.

 

I don't think people are assuming his power is going to translate exactly. He's on a 40 home run pace over a full season and I haven't seen anybody expect numbers anywhere close to that.

 

And I would be quite happy if his defense he's shown so far translates over a full season. He's been very solid so far.

 

And of course he wouldn't have to hit nearly this well to be a fine option as a starter even if his defense was subpar (at least 100 points of OPS less and probably closer to 150 points would be fine).

 

Of course, the strikeout rate is a huge concern. He seems to be a little lucky in the BABIP department. His HR per FB percentage is also really high but the fact that his home runs so far have been hit a long way balances that out. And the small sample size rules all.

 

I agree that it's still too early to give him a spot. But he definitely is a good candidate at this point to be a full season 15-20 home run guy with potential up to 30 or so. His minor league numbers suggest he's a 15 home run player. The elbow injury affecting some of his power numbers in the minors, his 14 homers in 1/2 a season at Tenessee last year after rehabbing from that injury, his muscle gain, his 7 homers in 1/6 of a season this year, and the fact that he hits home runs that would be gone in most every park in the majors all suggest he could be more than that.

 

seems to me he's been really lucky. .385 BABIP with a 21% LD? throw in the high HR/FB right, the high K rate and the low IsoD and I think his performance in unsustainable. Will that result in a 100 point drop in OPS or a 200+ drop? Given that his OBP is so artificially inflated, I'm concerned it's going to be much closer to the latter (and his .365 OBP can't stand a huge hit).

[Irrelevant Dude]

It's not just his defense he'd have to compensate for. The strikeout rate is one; the inability to hit LH is another.

I haven't seen Colvin's minor league splits, so maybe that is what you are referring to, but I surely wouldn't wouldn't say that he can't hit LHP based on a .263 average over 19 at bats. The strikeout rate is a definite concern though.

[TruffleShuffle]

It's not just his defense he'd have to compensate for. The strikeout rate is one; the inability to hit LH is another.

I haven't seen Colvin's minor league splits, so maybe that is what you are referring to, but I surely wouldn't wouldn't say that he can't hit LHP based on a .263 average over 19 at bats. The strikeout rate is a definite concern though.

 

he hit .277 in over 500 ABs against minor league pitchers with an OPS that was something like 20 points below his OPS against RHP... i have no idea where people got the idea that he is wretched against LHP, but they really should stop saying it.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

It's not just his defense he'd have to compensate for. The strikeout rate is one; the inability to hit LH is another.

I haven't seen Colvin's minor league splits, so maybe that is what you are referring to, but I surely wouldn't wouldn't say that he can't hit LHP based on a .263 average over 19 at bats. The strikeout rate is a definite concern though.

 

he hit .277 in over 500 ABs against minor league pitchers with an OPS that was something like 20 points below his OPS against RHP... i have no idea where people got the idea that he is wretched against LHP, but they really should stop saying it.

He's a lefty. Lefties can't hit lefties.

[Bull]

 

I honestly think the jury is still out on whether Colvin is a good defender or not. The scouts seem to be mixed in the minors between some believing that he had good corner outfield defense and poor center field defense and others who believed he was only a LF. So far, in the very limited data we have in the majors Colvin seems to be leaning towards the former idea with his defense both with the eye test and UZR. I don't think it's a stretch to believe that he's a good defender at either corner outfield position. At the same time, that still has to be confirmed with more chances.

That's it. He's not good enough defensively to play CF full time and doesn't hit with enough power to play one of the corner spots.

 

From what I've seen in both the minors and with the Cubs his arm his strong and accurate and he's a decent route runner, but nothing spectacular. I'm not sure why so many people here are so down on him, I think he might be able to start on a team that gets power else where, but for most teams in the post steroid era he's likely to be a backup.

 

In the steroid era not the "post steroid" era. The standards will change.

[Sammy Sofa]

It's not just his defense he'd have to compensate for. The strikeout rate is one; the inability to hit LH is another.

I haven't seen Colvin's minor league splits, so maybe that is what you are referring to, but I surely wouldn't wouldn't say that he can't hit LHP based on a .263 average over 19 at bats. The strikeout rate is a definite concern though.

 

he hit .277 in over 500 ABs against minor league pitchers with an OPS that was something like 20 points below his OPS against RHP... i have no idea where people got the idea that he is wretched against LHP, but they really should stop saying it.

 

Based on how he's looked and performed against LH pitchers thus far plus the strikeout rate. Granted, sample size of a sample size, but his approach and the disparity between those numbers and his numbers against RH shouldn't really fill us with confidence as to how he'd look against LH pitchers, especially given how unsustainable his numbers against RH pitchers are.

[TruffleShuffle]

he's had 25 PAs against LHP in his major league career

[Sammy Sofa]

Granted, sample size of a sample size

 

And that k rate.

[Tracer Bullet]

Granted, sample size of a sample size

 

And that k rate.

 

9/22 is obviously bad, but it's pretty hard to draw many conclusions from 22 PAs. was his K rate against LHP that bad in the minors too?

 

Of course, I also think too many LH get platooned too early in their careers b/c it's accepted that they can't hit LHP. So maybe I'm willing to give him more rope before we come to that conclusion than I should.

[Derwood]

oh hey look, another thread that has nothing to do with Colvin turning into 3 pages of bitching about Colvin

[Sammy Sofa]

What, you wanted 3 pages about Jake Fox? Weirdo.

[Tracer Bullet]

when I said he didn't need a platoon partner, i wasn't suggesting he lead off against a LHP either, Lou.

[muntjack]

Colvin now on pace for 21 HR in 282 AB but still a loooooooonnnnnnng shot to hit 20 in a full season.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Its really a frustrating situation. We have these 4 outfielders, all who need PT, 5 if you count Nady whose been decent too.

 

Colvin: The most consistant hitter on the team thus far, More expensive players need to be benched to get him PT

Byrd: the only other consistant hitter on the team

Soriano: Were pretty much stuck with him. He aint going back to 2B. We'll just have to enjoy his hot streaks and deal with his aful streaks for the next 4.5 years.

Kosuke: Hes the best trade option, but as hard as he'll be to trade, if hes on the bench, it will be alot harder. Maybe Kosuke and Soriano can become the worlds most expensive platoon.

[Sammy Sofa]

Colvin now on pace for 21 HR in 282 AB but still a loooooooonnnnnnng shot to hit 20 in a full season.

 

Yes. I don't know why you're not grasping this. It's not like I want him to fail, but it would be surprising if Colvin consistently hit 20+ HR each season as a starting OF. His success thus far this season, while a pleasant surprise, is nowhere near being proof that he'd be a 20+ HR guy every season. I have no problem with Colvin getting most of the RF starts if Fukudome is traded, but in the meantime it's simply not realistic to have him starting over the main 3 OF. You can't bench Fukudome if you expect to pull of a decent trade, Colvin definitely cannot man CF full time and a streaky Soriano is still more likely to be more beneficial to the team getting more starts than Colvin.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Colvin now on pace for 21 HR in 282 AB but still a loooooooonnnnnnng shot to hit 20 in a full season.

 

Yes. I don't know why you're not grasping this. It's not like I want him to fail, but it would be surprising if Colvin consistently hit 20+ HR each season as a starting OF. His success thus far this season, while a pleasant surprise, is nowhere near being proof that he'd be a 20+ HR guy every season. I have no problem with Colvin getting most of the RF starts if Fukudome is traded, but in the meantime it's simply not realistic to have him starting over the main 3 OF. You can't bench Fukudome if you expect to pull of a decent trade, Colvin definitely cannot man CF full time and a streaky Soriano is still more likely to be more beneficial to the team getting more starts than Colvin.

 

As long as he keeps hitting, thats reason enough to keep him playing regardless. Hes OPSing over 1.000, and has 3 fewer home runs than Jason Heyward in less than half the ABs. When the main thing killing this team is offense, when your 1 of the few guys on the team whose hitting, your going to play even if you cost the over priced guys playing time.

[Sammy Sofa]

Colvin now on pace for 21 HR in 282 AB but still a loooooooonnnnnnng shot to hit 20 in a full season.

 

Yes. I don't know why you're not grasping this. It's not like I want him to fail, but it would be surprising if Colvin consistently hit 20+ HR each season as a starting OF. His success thus far this season, while a pleasant surprise, is nowhere near being proof that he'd be a 20+ HR guy every season. I have no problem with Colvin getting most of the RF starts if Fukudome is traded, but in the meantime it's simply not realistic to have him starting over the main 3 OF. You can't bench Fukudome if you expect to pull of a decent trade, Colvin definitely cannot man CF full time and a streaky Soriano is still more likely to be more beneficial to the team getting more starts than Colvin.

 

As long as he keeps hitting, thats reason enough to keep him playing regardless. Hes OPSing over 1.000, and has 3 fewer home runs than Jason Heyward in less than half the ABs. When the main thing killing this team is offense, when your 1 of the few guys on the team whose hitting, your going to play even if you cost the over priced guys playing time.

 

Again, he can't play CF well enough to start there regularly, you can't bench Fukudome if you expect the team to be able to make any kind of a good trade moving him and regardless of what some people refusing to believe the odds are much better that Soriano, flaws and all, will be more productive over the course of the season as the starting RF than Colvin.

 

And hell, it's tremendously likely that Colvin is hitting this well BECAUSE he's not starting full time. Just let him hit off the bench and spot start for all of the other OF (hell, let him start for Fukudome against lefties to get a bit more of an idea if he can hit them) and then ideally he gets the bulk of the RF starts after Fukudome is (hopefully) traded.

[muntjack]

Colvin now on pace for 21 HR in 282 AB but still a loooooooonnnnnnng shot to hit 20 in a full season.

 

Yes. I don't know why you're not grasping this. It's not like I want him to fail, but it would be surprising if Colvin consistently hit 20+ HR each season as a starting OF. His success thus far this season, while a pleasant surprise, is nowhere near being proof that he'd be a 20+ HR guy every season. I have no problem with Colvin getting most of the RF starts if Fukudome is traded, but in the meantime it's simply not realistic to have him starting over the main 3 OF. You can't bench Fukudome if you expect to pull of a decent trade, Colvin definitely cannot man CF full time and a streaky Soriano is still more likely to be more beneficial to the team getting more starts than Colvin.

 

 

It is hard to grasp when you change your argument, yes. It has now gone from Colvin ever hitting 20 in a full season being a "llooooooooooooonnnng shot", to "it would be surprising if he did it consistently".

 

I have never even argued the point of him doing it consistently. I haven't argued whether he should get more playing time in this awkward outfield situation. I was arguing "loooooooooooong" shot for 20 when the guy is on a 40 HR pace.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Colvin now on pace for 21 HR in 282 AB but still a loooooooonnnnnnng shot to hit 20 in a full season.

 

Yes. I don't know why you're not grasping this. It's not like I want him to fail, but it would be surprising if Colvin consistently hit 20+ HR each season as a starting OF. His success thus far this season, while a pleasant surprise, is nowhere near being proof that he'd be a 20+ HR guy every season. I have no problem with Colvin getting most of the RF starts if Fukudome is traded, but in the meantime it's simply not realistic to have him starting over the main 3 OF. You can't bench Fukudome if you expect to pull of a decent trade, Colvin definitely cannot man CF full time and a streaky Soriano is still more likely to be more beneficial to the team getting more starts than Colvin.

 

As long as he keeps hitting, thats reason enough to keep him playing regardless. Hes OPSing over 1.000, and has 3 fewer home runs than Jason Heyward in less than half the ABs. When the main thing killing this team is offense, when your 1 of the few guys on the team whose hitting, your going to play even if you cost the over priced guys playing time.

 

Again, he can't play CF well enough to start there regularly, you can't bench Fukudome if you expect the team to be able to make any kind of a good trade moving him and regardless of what some people refusing to believe the odds are much better that Soriano, flaws and all, will be more productive over the course of the season as the starting RF than Colvin.

 

And hell, it's tremendously likely that Colvin is hitting this well BECAUSE he's not starting full time. Just let him hit off the bench and spot start for all of the other OF (hell, let him start for Fukudome against lefties to get a bit more of an idea if he can hit them) and then ideally he gets the bulk of the RF starts after Fukudome is (hopefully) traded.

 

Im not saying I disagree with what you are saying, but from the organizations standpoint, especially when you have an awful offense, and a manager and a GM whose jobs should be in trouble, although they are reportedly not, there going to play the guy whose hitting the best right now, (although that makes starting Theriot over both Fontenot and Baker perplexing, unless they really are trying to trade Theriot).

 

Also, you cant automatically assume that Colvin will falter if given full time PT. theres a chance, but theres also a chance that he does well. When rookies start out hot, eventually, the league eventually develops a book on them. There success is not simple determined on whether or not the pitchers make those adjustments, it is also determined on whether or not they are able to adjust to the way they are being pitched to once the pitchers make their adjustments. I doubt he keeps OPSing over 1.000, or even .900, but as I recall, when he was drafted he was projected as a .280 hitter with about 15-20 HR/year, and now that hes put on that extra 20 lbs of muscle in the offseason, he seems to have developed that power to maybe boost him to 25 hr on a good year.

[dew1679666265]

Im not saying I disagree with what you are saying, but from the organizations standpoint, especially when you have an awful offense, and a manager and a GM whose jobs should be in trouble, although they are reportedly not, there going to play the guy whose hitting the best right now, (although that makes starting Theriot over both Fontenot and Baker perplexing, unless they really are trying to trade Theriot).

 

Also, you cant automatically assume that Colvin will falter if given full time PT. theres a chance, but theres also a chance that he does well. When rookies start out hot, eventually, the league eventually develops a book on them. There success is not simple determined on whether or not the pitchers make those adjustments, it is also determined on whether or not they are able to adjust to the way they are being pitched to once the pitchers make their adjustments. I doubt he keeps OPSing over 1.000, or even .900, but as I recall, when he was drafted he was projected as a .280 hitter with about 15-20 HR/year, and now that hes put on that extra 20 lbs of muscle in the offseason, he seems to have developed that power to maybe boost him to 25 hr on a good year.

 

Colvin could keep hitting exceptionally well, but the odds are much greater that Kosuke is the better player over the course of the season. Coupled with Kosuke's trade value likely dropping if he's benched, the right move is to stick with Kosuke.

 

I'm all for getting Colvin as many ABs as possible, but I'm not in favor of benching the guys who are most likely to help us win this year. The trio of outfielders have been easily our best hitters this year (save for maybe Soto) and we shouldn't be benching any of them.

 

The best way to get Colvin ABs is to let him hit for whoever needs a day off or whoever is struggling. Kosuke and Soriano have both proven to be streaky players, so giving Colvin more ABs when one of them is mired in an extended slump is fine. Outright benching any of them is not the solution, though.

[Sammy Sofa]

Colvin now on pace for 21 HR in 282 AB but still a loooooooonnnnnnng shot to hit 20 in a full season.

 

Yes. I don't know why you're not grasping this. It's not like I want him to fail, but it would be surprising if Colvin consistently hit 20+ HR each season as a starting OF. His success thus far this season, while a pleasant surprise, is nowhere near being proof that he'd be a 20+ HR guy every season. I have no problem with Colvin getting most of the RF starts if Fukudome is traded, but in the meantime it's simply not realistic to have him starting over the main 3 OF. You can't bench Fukudome if you expect to pull of a decent trade, Colvin definitely cannot man CF full time and a streaky Soriano is still more likely to be more beneficial to the team getting more starts than Colvin.

 

 

It is hard to grasp when you change your argument, yes. It has now gone from Colvin ever hitting 20 in a full season being a "llooooooooooooonnnng shot", to "it would be surprising if he did it consistently".

 

I have never even argued the point of him doing it consistently. I haven't argued whether he should get more playing time in this awkward outfield situation. I was arguing "loooooooooooong" shot for 20 when the guy is on a 40 HR pace.

 

I haven't changed anything. I thought we were always talking about whether he could do it consistently as a starting OF, but yes, I do also think it would be a long shot for him to hit at least 20 this year if he became a starting OF for the Cubs today. His performance in a limited role thus far this season is in no way a guarantee that he'd continue at the pace he's currently on as a starter, or even be anywhere near that pace, or even that he'll continue at this pace in the role that he's currently in. I'll be very surprised if Colvin finishes this year with 20 or more home runs, either in his current part time role or if he basically becomes a starting OF if Fukudome is traded.

[Sammy Sofa]

Im not saying I disagree with what you are saying, but from the organizations standpoint, especially when you have an awful offense, and a manager and a GM whose jobs should be in trouble, although they are reportedly not, there going to play the guy whose hitting the best right now, (although that makes starting Theriot over both Fontenot and Baker perplexing, unless they really are trying to trade Theriot).

 

Also, you cant automatically assume that Colvin will falter if given full time PT. theres a chance, but theres also a chance that he does well. When rookies start out hot, eventually, the league eventually develops a book on them. There success is not simple determined on whether or not the pitchers make those adjustments, it is also determined on whether or not they are able to adjust to the way they are being pitched to once the pitchers make their adjustments. I doubt he keeps OPSing over 1.000, or even .900, but as I recall, when he was drafted he was projected as a .280 hitter with about 15-20 HR/year, and now that hes put on that extra 20 lbs of muscle in the offseason, he seems to have developed that power to maybe boost him to 25 hr on a good year.

 

Colvin could keep hitting exceptionally well, but the odds are much greater that Kosuke is the better player over the course of the season. Coupled with Kosuke's trade value likely dropping if he's benched, the right move is to stick with Kosuke.

 

I'm all for getting Colvin as many ABs as possible, but I'm not in favor of benching the guys who are most likely to help us win this year. The trio of outfielders have been easily our best hitters this year (save for maybe Soto) and we shouldn't be benching any of them.

 

The best way to get Colvin ABs is to let him hit for whoever needs a day off or whoever is struggling. Kosuke and Soriano have both proven to be streaky players, so giving Colvin more ABs when one of them is mired in an extended slump is fine. Outright benching any of them is not the solution, though.

 

Great points.